ESPN bracketology

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Tell that to the guy right above you who's already talking seeds and opponents.

[usc4valpo]

I did say if and not when Apostle

[a3uge]

As of today... Valpo is a 13 seed facing Northern Iowa.  Of course, this change daily and who knows what will happen. Living in Des Moines, I think this would be an awesome matchup.

If (not when, the Horizon conference is competitive) Valpo wins the conference tournament, they will be a 13 seed and IMO deservedly so.  Honestly, I look at the other teams and I cannot make a case where should be a 12 seed. But who knows.

Harvard? Wofford? Murray State? SFA? Iona? LA Tech?

I could easily make a case for a 12 seed over each of those teams, and on most of those, the majority of bracket-makers agree with me there. And this assumes every one of those teams will win their conference tournament, which they probably won't.

[usc4valpo]

I would take Harvard and SFA over Valpo right now - they have proven to win a game in tourney, especially Harvard.  Besides, my wife went to SFA so I know what arguments to fight.

I have to admit and be objective by the eye evaluation - after watching UNI and Wichita State play, they are obviously at a higher level of quality play compared to SFA, Valpo and Woogie Boogie.

[justducky]

I have to admit and be objective by the eye evaluation - after watching UNI and Wichita State play, they are obviously at a higher level of quality play compared to SFA, Valpo and Woogie Boogie.

Watched most of that game as well. UNI would give us fits and WSU is the better team. We could stay close with both but getting a win would take some breaks.

[valpo4life]

I would take Harvard and SFA over Valpo right now - they have proven to win a game in tourney, especially Harvard. 

What you've done in previous years is irrelevant.

[agibson]

What you've done in previous years is irrelevant.

Surely it's supposed to be.  For amateur bracektologists I'm sure it's _not_.  The selection committee?  I don't know...  I'd just as soon Yale get the auto-bid (better yet a third team - but it'd take a small miracle, if it's even possible at this point).

[oklahomamick]

Espn bracketology has us as a 13 seed against Wichita St. in Seattle.  I know it means nothing and there are two really tough games ahead just to get NCAA but if it was my choice I would rather take the 14th seed and play ND in Columbus.   

[chef]

Year after year, Jerry Palm outperforms Joe Lunardi. Palm has Valpo as a 12. Ironically also playing Wichita State.

[a3uge]

Year after year, Jerry Palm outperforms Joe Lunardi. Palm has Valpo as a 12. Ironically also playing Wichita State.

That's actually not true - Lunardi's had a more accurate bracket the past four years: http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

Even so, I wouldn't trust any specific bracket. Its impossible to know what the selection committee will be thinking. There's going to be a bunch of seeds that make no sense and a bunch of teams that move up and down with geography. Maybe Murray State would play Butler in Louisville and all of the sudden Murray State loses and now Valpo is a logical replacement. It's these things that will be hard to predict.

[HC]

for what it's worth: Lunatic Lunardi has Valpareyeso as a 13 facing off vs. Wichita State in Seattle.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

[chef]

Yeah, I guess I was living in the past. I see where Palm outscored Lunardi in 2008, 2009, and 2010. As we get older we only remember things from the past.

[vu72]

I just checked Sagarin and found that of the current conference leaders, 16 are ranked lower than Valpo.  Conference USA, The Mid-America and Ohio Valley are slightly better as is the case with Steven F. Austin,  If anybody other than SFA or Murray State wins their tourneys then we would jump ahead of them as well.  So, with a little luck I can see the committee making us a 12 given the current conference leaders.

[wh]

I just checked Sagarin and found that of the current conference leaders, 16 are ranked lower than Valpo.  Conference USA, The Mid-America and Ohio Valley are slightly better as is the case with Steven F. Austin,  If anybody other than SFA or Murray State wins their tourneys then we would jump ahead of them as well.  So, with a little luck I can see the committee making us a 12 given the current conference leaders.

One of the benefits of the double bye tournament bracket is the top 2 seeds are not saddled with playing teams at the bottom of the conference with bad RPI's.  If the OVC, for example, doesn't have a double bye system (haven't looked) Murray State's RPI could be more negatively impacted by tournament opponents than Valpo's.  The same could happen with other conferences.  Something seemingly small like that could make the difference between a 12 and a 13.

[covufan]

I just checked Sagarin and found that of the current conference leaders, 16 are ranked lower than Valpo.  Conference USA, The Mid-America and Ohio Valley are slightly better as is the case with Steven F. Austin,  If anybody other than SFA or Murray State wins their tourneys then we would jump ahead of them as well.  So, with a little luck I can see the committee making us a 12 given the current conference leaders.

One of the benefits of the double bye tournament bracket is the top 2 seeds are not saddled with playing teams at the bottom of the conference with bad RPI's.  If the OVC, for example, doesn't have a double bye system (haven't looked) Murray State's RPI could be more negatively impacted by tournament opponents than Valpo's.  The same could happen with other conferences.  Something seemingly small like that could make the difference between a 12 and a 13.

Teams with the better record need to win Friday night.

Oh, and all of the teams we've played this year need to win their games this week!

[valpo4life]

I just checked Sagarin and found that of the current conference leaders, 16 are ranked lower than Valpo.  Conference USA, The Mid-America and Ohio Valley are slightly better as is the case with Steven F. Austin,  If anybody other than SFA or Murray State wins their tourneys then we would jump ahead of them as well.  So, with a little luck I can see the committee making us a 12 given the current conference leaders.

One of the benefits of the double bye tournament bracket is the top 2 seeds are not saddled with playing teams at the bottom of the conference with bad RPI's.  If the OVC, for example, doesn't have a double bye system (haven't looked) Murray State's RPI could be more negatively impacted by tournament opponents than Valpo's.  The same could happen with other conferences.  Something seemingly small like that could make the difference between a 12 and a 13.

Actually, the OVC's tournament mirrors the Horizon this year.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket/_/id/201524/2015-ohio-valley-tournament

[talksalot]

Watched the CBS-Sportsnet broadcast of the A10 games last night... the Preview show included a phone interview with the Murray State coach and both he and the announcer had good things to say about "Valpo"... "Valpo played really well that night and it was real wake up call for us"  [he didn't mention that they had lost to Portland earlier in the same tournament].

[a3uge]

I just checked Sagarin and found that of the current conference leaders, 16 are ranked lower than Valpo.  Conference USA, The Mid-America and Ohio Valley are slightly better as is the case with Steven F. Austin,  If anybody other than SFA or Murray State wins their tourneys then we would jump ahead of them as well.  So, with a little luck I can see the committee making us a 12 given the current conference leaders.

One of the benefits of the double bye tournament bracket is the top 2 seeds are not saddled with playing teams at the bottom of the conference with bad RPI's.  If the OVC, for example, doesn't have a double bye system (haven't looked) Murray State's RPI could be more negatively impacted by tournament opponents than Valpo's.  The same could happen with other conferences.  Something seemingly small like that could make the difference between a 12 and a 13.

The OVC has actually had double byes since 2011, but they still play games on a neutral court.

We actually project to 48 (206 SOS) while Murray State projects to 50 (220 SOS), I'd imagine Valpos would be lower (better), given Valpo playing Green Bay, who would have a high RPI going into the championship game. But the neutral court benefits Murray State.

The Horizon has been awful this year. The league had a 43% OOC winning percentage! The OVC has 5 teams above .500, while we only have 3. THREE! That's inexcusable! After the OOC portion, we had TWO above .500, and the now awful WSU and YSU at 6-6! Our 3 and 4 seeds have a combined OOC record of 7-18! If these teams would have performed better, scheduled better, we'd be a top 50 RPI team. The horrible records by our conference opponents has devastated our RPI. Oakland's 130 RPI may be 4th in the league, but their terrible W/L record is devastating to our SOS and dramatically hurts every team's RPI.

It's no surprise that the Horizon League is 16th in RPI when it had the 4th highest SOS.

But Valpo isn't without blame. While the high W/L helps each individual team, the SOS hurts Valpo. We couldn't have predicted a god awful Missouri team or a New Mexico meltdown, but we could have avoided that crappy Michigan tournament. Its a double edged sword - scheduling cupcakes hurts you even if you win, but over-scheduling hurts the conference and is a good one way ticket to a 16 seed.

[bbtds]

I just checked Sagarin and found that of the current conference leaders, 16 are ranked lower than Valpo.  Conference USA, The Mid-America and Ohio Valley are slightly better as is the case with Steven F. Austin,  If anybody other than SFA or Murray State wins their tourneys then we would jump ahead of them as well.  So, with a little luck I can see the committee making us a 12 given the current conference leaders.

One of the benefits of the double bye tournament bracket is the top 2 seeds are not saddled with playing teams at the bottom of the conference with bad RPI's.  If the OVC, for example, doesn't have a double bye system (haven't looked) Murray State's RPI could be more negatively impacted by tournament opponents than Valpo's.  The same could happen with other conferences.  Something seemingly small like that could make the difference between a 12 and a 13.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Ohio_Valley_Conference_Men%27s_Basketball_Tournament

The OVC tournament is an eight-team tournament with the third and fourth seeds receiving a first round bye and the two divisional winners receiving byes through to the semifinals.

The top team in each division, based on conference winning percentage, automatically earns a berth into the tournament. The next six teams with the highest conference winning percentage also earned a bid, regardless of division. The No. 1 seed goes to the divisional winner with the higher conference winning percentage, while the No. 2 seed automatically goes to the other divisional winner. The remaining six teams are seeded 3–8 by conference winning percentage, regardless of division.

2014–15 Ohio Valley Conference men's basketball standings
v t e   Conf           Overall
Team   W       L       PCT           W       L       PCT
East
Belmont   11   –   5       .688           19   –   10       .655
Eastern Kentucky   11   –   5       .688           19   –   10       .655
Morehead State   10   –   6       .625           15   –   16       .484
Jacksonville State   5   –   11       .313           12   –   19       .387
Tennessee Tech   4   –   12       .250           12   –   18       .400
Tennessee State   2   –   14       .125           5   –   26       .161

West
#25 Murray State   16   –   0       1.000           26   –   4       .867
Tennessee–Martin   10   –   6       .625           18   –   11       .621
Eastern Illinois   9   –   7       .563           16   –   13       .552
SIU Edwardsville   8   –   8       .500           12   –   15       .444
Southeast Missouri St.   7   –   9       .438           13   –   16       .448
Austin Peay   3   –   13       .188           8   –   22       .267

[usc4valpo]

why is Wofford a projected 12 seed?  I don't get that. What have they proven?

[Pathfinder]

why is Wofford a projected 12 seed?  I don't get that. What have they proven?

#50 RPI, double digit win over Iona, win at North Carolina State.

[zvillehaze]

One of the benefits of the double bye tournament bracket is the top 2 seeds are not saddled with playing teams at the bottom of the conference with bad RPI's.  If the OVC, for example, doesn't have a double bye system (haven't looked) Murray State's RPI could be more negatively impacted by tournament opponents than Valpo's.  The same could happen with other conferences.  Something seemingly small like that could make the difference between a 12 and a 13.

I know it's been debated for years here, but are you for or against the HL tourney format?  I've lost track of who is pro vs. con.

[wh]

One of the benefits of the double bye tournament bracket is the top 2 seeds are not saddled with playing teams at the bottom of the conference with bad RPI's.  If the OVC, for example, doesn't have a double bye system (haven't looked) Murray State's RPI could be more negatively impacted by tournament opponents than Valpo's.  The same could happen with other conferences.  Something seemingly small like that could make the difference between a 12 and a 13.

I know it's been debated for years here, but are you for or against the HL tourney format?  I've lost track of who is pro vs. con.

Subtle: clever and indirect : not showing your real purpose   

[valpotx]

Yeah, New Mexico went from a good 6-3 in conference, to 8 straight losses (6-11)

[classof2014]

If Missouri and New Mexico had decent seasons our OOC schedule would've been much stronger. I didn't think our OOC was weak, it wasn't strong but rather mediocre. We beat some decent mid-majors, Murray State, Portland State, Eastern Kentucky, James Madison, and IPFW. Maine and Arkansas Pine-Bluff is what really brought us down.