ESPN bracketology

[oklahomamick]

On kampe's radio show Bryce was a guest and was put on the spot when asked about scheduling.  Kampe admitted he receives grief about his schedule and then asks Bryce his philosophy.  Bryce repied that we didn't know what kind of team we had.  We try to schedule on a year to year basis with what we have and this having a young team, we didn't have certain expectations.  Also mentioned that it's difficult to find teams to play you and wished the critics would set up the schedule. 

I understood it as not a philosophy but rather meeting the needs of the team for that year. 

[valpo84]

New Mexico has lost 8 in a row. Jordan Goodman went down for the season then (key 6th man). They also lost their key scorer Cullen Neal early in the season (before us) and that had to have had a huge effect all season.

[a3uge]

On kampe's radio show Bryce was a guest and was put on the spot when asked about scheduling.  Kampe admitted he receives grief about his schedule and then asks Bryce his philosophy.  Bryce repied that we didn't know what kind of team we had.  We try to schedule on a year to year basis with what we have and this having a young team, we didn't have certain expectations.  Also mentioned that it's difficult to find teams to play you and wished the critics would set up the schedule. 

I understood it as not a philosophy but rather meeting the needs of the team for that year.

I heard this interview (sort of, they decided to broadcast from the noisiest bar ever) too after Oren tweeted about it. Bryce did say he never expected the team to be where it is now and that if he was trying for a high seed, he'd have tried to scheduled a bit harder. He said the goal wasn't a good seed, it was just making it back in. He said he tries to schedule with experience and he also mentioned something about not playing in the CMU tournament and Missouri and how their RPI would be 36 (does Bryce use RPI Wizard?) or something like that.

The interview was from Oakland guys, and they were critical of their own program's scheduling. They also jokingly said that their fans think they have a final four team every year, which I found hilarious.

[agibson]

he also mentioned something about not playing in the CMU tournament and Missouri and how their RPI would be 36 (does Bryce use RPI Wizard?) or something like that.

Huh.  Look at that.  36.

Hearing some discussion of "big 5" scheduling policies, evolution, and RPI watching it seems that plenty of coaches and leagues _are_ _very_ conscience of RPI, and do actively game the system.  If the SEC, why not Bryce?

[StlVUFan]

On kampe's radio show Bryce was a guest and was put on the spot when asked about scheduling.  Kampe admitted he receives grief about his schedule and then asks Bryce his philosophy.  Bryce repied that we didn't know what kind of team we had.  We try to schedule on a year to year basis with what we have and this having a young team, we didn't have certain expectations.  Also mentioned that it's difficult to find teams to play you and wished the critics would set up the schedule. 

I understood it as not a philosophy but rather meeting the needs of the team for that year.

I heard this interview (sort of, they decided to broadcast from the noisiest bar ever) too after Oren tweeted about it. Bryce did say he never expected the team to be where it is now and that if he was trying for a high seed, he'd have tried to scheduled a bit harder. He said the goal wasn't a good seed, it was just making it back in. He said he tries to schedule with experience and he also mentioned something about not playing in the CMU tournament and Missouri and how their RPI would be 36 (does Bryce use RPI Wizard?) or something like that.

The interview was from Oakland guys, and they were critical of their own program's scheduling. They also jokingly said that their fans think they have a final four team every year, which I found hilarious.

They were not critical of their own program's scheduling, they said their fans are critical.

Bryce said "If we lose to Kentucky instead of Missouri" and he threw in another upgrade which I have forgotten, our RPI would be about 30 points higher.  You are probably right, he or someone on his staff does use some online projecting tool to come up with that.  I also agree that it was hard to understand.  I thought Bryce's phone connection might have been not so great, but there was a lot of noise as well.

The key point was: the two of them schedule with one arm tied behind their backs (my wording).

[StlVUFan]

If the SEC, why not Bryce?

Um... I think an SEC team has a LOT more leverage to do stuff like this than an HL team.

[wh]

If the SEC, why not Bryce?

Um... I think an SEC team has a LOT more leverage to do stuff like this than an HL team.

When Bryce says he didn't know we were going to be this good when he put the schedule together means that he follows the "schedule the most difficult opponents you think you can beat" philosophy for qmid majors. It means he knows how to play the RPI game. Unintentionally, he may have missed the mark this year, but who knew?  If we have the good fortune of winning the conference tournament, I will be satisfied with a 13 and thrilled with a 12.

Oakland's scheduling phylosophy is better suited for an athletic department fundraising instruction manual under "Examples of desperate fundraising measures if you're too lazy or too stupid to raise money like everyone else does."

[classof2014]

If Missouri and New Mexico had normal seasons for their program we would be ranked much higher in terms of RPI. I thought Bryce did a good job putting together the schedule its just unfortunate both Missouri and New Mexico are having down seasons.

[oklahomamick]

ESPN bracketology keeps us at a 13 but keeps flopping MVC teams.  Predicts Wichita St. in Seattle. 

[classof2014]

ESPN bracketology keeps us at a 13 but keeps flopping MVC teams.  Predicts Wichita St. in Seattle. 

Wichita St in Seattle wouldn't be terrible. Seems like every year a team like Wichita falls in the first round. Not a traditional powerhouse programs like Duke, North Carolina, Michigan St, etc... Also if we played Wichita State in Seattle that is truly a neutral court. Don't know of many people from Valpo living in Seattle and would imagine the same for Wichita St.

[a3uge]

ESPN bracketology keeps us at a 13 but keeps flopping MVC teams.  Predicts Wichita St. in Seattle. 

Wichita St in Seattle wouldn't be terrible. Seems like every year a team like Wichita falls in the first round. Not a traditional powerhouse programs like Duke, North Carolina, Michigan St, etc... Also if we played Wichita State in Seattle that is truly a neutral court. Don't know of many people from Valpo living in Seattle and would imagine the same for Wichita St.

Not sure what you mean by that. Wichita State fell to eventual runner-up Kentucky last year in probably the best game of the tournament. Both teams shot extremely well that game and were hitting shots at the end. VanVleet missed a 3 to win at the buzzer. The year before they were in the final four and lost in the "wait, is that the guy's bone?" game. The year before that they did get upset by VCU, and before that they won the NIT. It's not fair to say they get upset easily because they're a mid-major.

They're not as good as last year (Early got drafted), but still have the best point guard in the country (VanVleet), another great shooting guard in Baker, and one of the best coaches in the country. They just destroyed a good UNI team and may be hitting their stride. I'd much rather face a less experienced team that doesn't have a bunch of postseason experience. Utah, Arkansas, WV, and Butler would be much better draws.

[classof2014]

ESPN bracketology keeps us at a 13 but keeps flopping MVC teams.  Predicts Wichita St. in Seattle. 

Wichita St in Seattle wouldn't be terrible. Seems like every year a team like Wichita falls in the first round. Not a traditional powerhouse programs like Duke, North Carolina, Michigan St, etc... Also if we played Wichita State in Seattle that is truly a neutral court. Don't know of many people from Valpo living in Seattle and would imagine the same for Wichita St.

Not sure what you mean by that. Wichita State fell to eventual runner-up Kentucky last year in probably the best game of the tournament. Both teams shot extremely well that game and were hitting shots at the end. VanVleet missed a 3 to win at the buzzer. The year before they were in the final four and lost in the "wait, is that the guy's bone?" game. The year before that they did get upset by VCU, and before that they won the NIT. It's not fair to say they get upset easily because they're a mid-major.

They're not as good as last year (Early got drafted), but still have the best point guard in the country (VanVleet), another great shooting guard in Baker, and one of the best coaches in the country. They just destroyed a good UNI team and may be hitting their stride. I'd much rather face a less experienced team that doesn't have a bunch of postseason experience. Utah, Arkansas, WV, and Butler would be much better draws.

I didn't mean Wichita State specifically. I meant teams that aren't the big boys of college basketball, like Duke, North Carolina, UCONN, Kentucky, etc... No matter who we draw we won't be expected to win, we'd be a 12 seed max. Although Duke lost in the first round last season the powerhouse schools rarely seem to fall in the first round. Are there better draws than Wichita St? Definitely.

It's also hard to tell how good they really are. They're in the MVC so they play some mediocre to poor teams. The only other team is Northern Iowa. It's not like they're from the B1G where teams play top 25 teams every game, so it seems. The only Top 25 team they've won is a home game against Northern Iowa. They're a very good mid-major but they're not unbeatable.

[a3uge]

ESPN bracketology keeps us at a 13 but keeps flopping MVC teams.  Predicts Wichita St. in Seattle. 

Wichita St in Seattle wouldn't be terrible. Seems like every year a team like Wichita falls in the first round. Not a traditional powerhouse programs like Duke, North Carolina, Michigan St, etc... Also if we played Wichita State in Seattle that is truly a neutral court. Don't know of many people from Valpo living in Seattle and would imagine the same for Wichita St.

Not sure what you mean by that. Wichita State fell to eventual runner-up Kentucky last year in probably the best game of the tournament. Both teams shot extremely well that game and were hitting shots at the end. VanVleet missed a 3 to win at the buzzer. The year before they were in the final four and lost in the "wait, is that the guy's bone?" game. The year before that they did get upset by VCU, and before that they won the NIT. It's not fair to say they get upset easily because they're a mid-major.

They're not as good as last year (Early got drafted), but still have the best point guard in the country (VanVleet), another great shooting guard in Baker, and one of the best coaches in the country. They just destroyed a good UNI team and may be hitting their stride. I'd much rather face a less experienced team that doesn't have a bunch of postseason experience. Utah, Arkansas, WV, and Butler would be much better draws.

I didn't mean Wichita State specifically. I meant teams that aren't the big boys of college basketball, like Duke, North Carolina, UCONN, Kentucky, etc... No matter who we draw we won't be expected to win, we'd be a 12 seed max. Although Duke lost in the first round last season the powerhouse schools rarely seem to fall in the first round. Are there better draws than Wichita St? Definitely.

It's also hard to tell how good they really are. They're in the MVC so they play some mediocre to poor teams. The only other team is Northern Iowa. It's not like they're from the B1G where teams play top 25 teams every game, so it seems. The only Top 25 team they've won is a home game against Northern Iowa. They're a very good mid-major but they're not unbeatable.

I don't really know what a New Mexico or a Duke or a Georgetown or a Kansas have to do with Wichita State. I don't think there's a higher winning percentage from power conference upsets to mid major upsets in the first round. You can't really say its hard to tell how good Wichita State is from their conference anymore - many of the same guys were on the team with their Final Four run and their undefeated regular season last year. From the projected 3s, 4s, and 5s they have by far the most experience, the most postseason success, and the best coaching. They're really good. I'd order the projected 3-5 seeds in order of least likely 1st round upset to bracketbuster like this:

Maryland
Iowa St
Wichita St
UNC
Louisville
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Baylor
Utah
UNI
WV
Arkansas

[justducky]

One of the benefits of the double bye tournament bracket is the top 2 seeds are not saddled with playing teams at the bottom of the conference with bad RPI's.  If the OVC, for example, doesn't have a double bye system (haven't looked) Murray State's RPI could be more negatively impacted by tournament opponents than Valpo's.  The same could happen with other conferences.  Something seemingly small like that could make the difference between a 12 and a 13.

I know it's been debated for years here, but are you for or against the HL tourney format?  I've lost track of who is pro vs. con.

Subtle: clever and indirect : not showing your real purpose   

Let me think. Of the 3 vocal opponents to the double-bye RLH is long dead, wh now rides the fence, and once again I stand alone. There seems to be a pattern emerging. So who here thinks
A.    we should have a schedule more like Oaklands and less like ours?      Ducky
B.    that HL referees almost always do a good job (after you watch the game replay)?     Ducky
C.    that Brian Wardle is both a fine coach and a decent role model?                     Ducky again.  I did have Milan Miracle with me on that until he got badgered off the board. "Note the word badgered"
D     the double bye is a stacked deck?    Ducky flies alone buzzing the landscape looking forlornly for his fallen partners.

Maybe next year with an at large quality team wh will decide to rejoin the flock.

[StlVUFan]

One of the benefits of the double bye tournament bracket is the top 2 seeds are not saddled with playing teams at the bottom of the conference with bad RPI's.  If the OVC, for example, doesn't have a double bye system (haven't looked) Murray State's RPI could be more negatively impacted by tournament opponents than Valpo's.  The same could happen with other conferences.  Something seemingly small like that could make the difference between a 12 and a 13.

I know it's been debated for years here, but are you for or against the HL tourney format?  I've lost track of who is pro vs. con.

Subtle: clever and indirect : not showing your real purpose   

Let me think. Of the 4 vocal opponents to the double-bye RLH is long dead, wh now rides the fence, and once again I and StlVUFan stand alone. There seems to be a pattern emerging. So who here thinks
A.    we should have a schedule more like Oaklands and less like ours?      Ducky
B.    that HL referees almost always do a good job (after you watch the game replay)?     Ducky
C.    that Brian Wardle is both a fine coach and a decent role model?                     Ducky again.  I did have Milan Miracle with me on that until he got badgered off the board. "Note the word badgered"
D     the double bye is a stacked deck?    Ducky and StlVUFan fly alone buzzing the landscape looking forlornly for their fallen partners.

Maybe next year with an at large quality team wh will decide to rejoin the flock.

Fixed it for you.

[a3uge]

One of the benefits of the double bye tournament bracket is the top 2 seeds are not saddled with playing teams at the bottom of the conference with bad RPI's.  If the OVC, for example, doesn't have a double bye system (haven't looked) Murray State's RPI could be more negatively impacted by tournament opponents than Valpo's.  The same could happen with other conferences.  Something seemingly small like that could make the difference between a 12 and a 13.

I know it's been debated for years here, but are you for or against the HL tourney format?  I've lost track of who is pro vs. con.

Subtle: clever and indirect : not showing your real purpose   

Let me think. Of the 3 vocal opponents to the double-bye RLH is long dead, wh now rides the fence, and once again I stand alone. There seems to be a pattern emerging. So who here thinks
A.    we should have a schedule more like Oaklands and less like ours?      Ducky
B.    that HL referees almost always do a good job (after you watch the game replay)?     Ducky
C.    that Brian Wardle is both a fine coach and a decent role model?                     Ducky again.  I did have Milan Miracle with me on that until he got badgered off the board. "Note the word badgered"
D     the double bye is a stacked deck?    Ducky flies alone buzzing the landscape looking forlornly for his fallen partners.

Maybe next year with an at large quality team wh will decide to rejoin the flock.

Of course the double bye is a stacked deck. That's the whole point. Also I don't think anyone has argued for the same OOC schedule. We just think Oakland's OOC schedule is extremely detrimental to themselves and the league (which it is).

[frontrowfan]

I watched the Wichita State V NI game.  Both teams are currently 4 seeds. Not all 4 seeds are the same and if I had a choice I would rather play NI in Jacksonville (neutral site for both teams) because I think our defense would wreck havoc

[justducky]

I watched the Wichita State V NI game.  Both teams are currently 4 seeds. Not all 4 seeds are the same and if I had a choice I would rather play NI in Jacksonville (neutral site for both teams) because I think our defense would wreck havoc
     Logged

Vashil could matchup better with Wichita St. My nightmare with Northern Iowa would be falling behind to the point that we would have to play man defense. That NI center could either dismantle Vashil from the outside or Jubril from the inside. Could we maybe take it to him and try to get him in foul trouble?

[a3uge]

I watched the Wichita State V NI game.  Both teams are currently 4 seeds. Not all 4 seeds are the same and if I had a choice I would rather play NI in Jacksonville (neutral site for both teams) because I think our defense would wreck havoc
     Logged

Vashil could matchup better with Wichita St. My nightmare with Northern Iowa would be falling behind to the point that we would have to play man defense. That NI center could either dismantle Vashil from the outside or Jubril from the inside. Could we maybe take it to him and try to get him in foul trouble?

Don't know why you think Vashil struggles on the perimeter. I feel thats one of his biggest strengths - he's got quick feet and moves well for a big man. We have the best opponent 3 point shooting percentage in the conference. But yeah, Tuttle is a monster. He'll get anyone into foul trouble by banging down low, especially someone like Vashil. He can push anyone around and is very accurate around the basket. Kind of reminds me of a KVW that can shoot 3s. UNI overall didn't look very good against Wichita State, but had a couple spurts of brilliance to keep the game somewhat close.

[agibson]

Kind of reminds me of a KVW that can shoot 3s.

Huh - he never did hit one, did he?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Nope...0-7, though at least he only took 1 each as a jr and sr.

Wasn't one of them basically for spits 'n giggles?  I seem to remember something...

[agibson]

Looks like we've (continued to?) slipped a bit at bracketmatrix.com.

Nothing so different from what the consensus seems to be around here.  Looking more like a 13 seed than a 12.

(2 of 5 12 seeds forecast to be taken by play-in teams)

Wofford       Southern    12.36
Stephen F. Austin    Southland    12.48
Murray State       Ohio Valley    12.52    
Louisiana Tech       CUSA       12.64
Valparaiso       Horizon    12.77
Harvard       Ivy       12.87 (that's before their loss last night)
Iona          Metro Atlantic    13.13    
Central Michigan    MAC       13.56

With Central Michigan the first of the 14 seeds, trailed significantly by Davis and GA State.

[crusadermoe]

I think you guys are way ahead of yourselves talking NCAA seeds.    We have to win TWO very tough games.     

But if we must.......I say cheer on Murray State since that is our best win.    I think they are overrated..as are we.     

I do think this year we have the athletes to pull off an NCAA win.   But so do Green Bay and CSU and we have to beat them first.

[bmlvu97]

And down goes Murray State in a hell of a game against Belmont...

[agibson]

And down goes Murray State in a hell of a game against Belmont...

Ha-ha!  I still think they're nowhere near an at-large.  Good news!  88-87 in Nashville.  Well done Belmont!  If they're going to join the Horizon, this would be a good start.