Tiebreaker Scenario

WiscoCrusader · February 19, 2015, 10:07:27 AM

With each passing day, the likelihood increases that we are going to end up in a tie for first with GB at 13-3. Of course, we may also finish 14-2, and in that case this thread can be purged (Woooo)!

But in the event of the 13-3 tie, both Valpo and GB will have losses to each other on the road, at Cleveland State, and at Oakland (who paid those refs anyway? Kampe?

Couldn't have cost much more than that toupee.

)

Therefore, the cascading tiebreaker rules will not resolve the tie, and we go to RPI.

Horizon League specifies that the RPI tiebreaker is per the College Basketball News RPI, an "outlier" in terms of RPI separation between GB and Valpo.

Anyone have any more details around which RPI we should be keeping an eye on in the next two weeks?

Kyle321n · February 19, 2015, 10:25:59 AM

1. College Basketball News RPI absolutely exists. It's at this site: http://rpiratings.com/ A quick google search would have told you that.
2. Live RPI and the CBN RPI seem to be running the same formula nowadays. If you want you can follow that and even plug in every scenario to your hearts desire.
3. There's a 0% chance of us catching Green Bay's RPI. We're 20 slots back of them and to make up that much ground with 3 games left for just about every OOC opponent left is impossible.

VUOR63 · February 19, 2015, 11:14:20 AM

So if there's no chance of reaching GB's RPI, I guess we have to like win the next three games or something.

WiscoCrusader · February 19, 2015, 11:39:43 AM

Kyle -

Good catch - I was looking for College Basketball News RPI, not "Collegiate". Still, that's a really obscure RPI to use for a tiebreaker - too bad.

I don't know where you're getting 20 spots from - even using your link it's 48 vs. 61. We have road games at Detroit and Cle St. remaining, while GB has home games and goes to UIC.

ESPN RPI: GB 54, Valpo 64
KenPom: GB 62, Valpo 63
Sagarin: GB 65, Valpo 66

Too bad Horizon league doesn't use an RPI average, because surely (considering remaining schedule) we will be ahead in all of the three I listed above, if both teams are 13-3. The Horizon League will then be in the awkward position of resolving the tie using their obscure RPI site, when all others potentially disagree.

classof2014 · February 19, 2015, 11:43:35 AM

The HL would prefer it be in GB just based on arena size. The Resch Center can hold almost 10000 people, which is twice as big as the ARC. Thus there is more money to be made. It would be unfortunate if it came down to RPI rankings which is very subjective.

WiscoCrusader · February 19, 2015, 11:45:27 AM

And by the way... What about head-to-head points?

That's a ridiculous item to ignore if you're going to determine home floor based on RPI instead.

covufan · February 19, 2015, 11:49:18 AM

Quote from: WiscoCrusader on February 19, 2015, 11:39:43 AM
Kyle -

Good catch - I was looking for College Basketball News RPI, not "Collegiate". Still, that's a really obscure RPI to use for a tiebreaker - too bad.

I don't know where you're getting 20 spots from - even using your link it's 48 vs. 61. We have road games at Detroit and Cle St. remaining, while GB has home games and goes to UIC.

ESPN RPI: GB 54, Valpo 64
KenPom: GB 62, Valpo 63
Sagarin: GB 65, Valpo 66

Too bad Horizon league doesn't use an RPI average, because surely (considering remaining schedule) we will be ahead in all of the three I listed above, if both teams are 13-3. The Horizon League will then be in the awkward position of resolving the tie using their obscure RPI site, when all others potentially disagree.

RPI is RPI. ESPN has their BPI, which is not based on the RPI formula. KenPom and Sagarin have their own formulas as well. For an average of the various ranking/rating systems, go to Massey comparison:

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

He only updates his comparison rankings once a week, after the weekend games.

vusupporter · February 19, 2015, 11:52:21 AM

Collegiate Basketball News was the first publication to publicly publish RPI figures - hardly obscure. Perhaps, less relevant in this day and age with the information so widely available on the Internet, but they were putting the information out there pre-Internet days.

covufan · February 19, 2015, 12:00:05 PM

Quote from: StlVUFan on February 16, 2015, 12:44:38 PM
My tiebreaker spreadsheet is locked and loaded, ready for bear ... except: still waiting word on just how much Milwaukee will be involved in tie-breaker procedures. Seems fairly certain they are to be used as a common opponent, should tiebreaker rule 3 be needed, but they may also complicate 3-way ties that they ostensibly participate in.

I was told there will be something from the HL office on this today.

Kyle is right about CSU hosting if they win out, as far as I can tell, but I don't know about GB winning out (and Valpo losing at least once).

I'm sure StlVUFan will be posting info after this weekends games.

covufan · February 19, 2015, 12:04:35 PM

A nice history of CBN and RPI from their website:

About Collegiate Basketball News and the RPI

Collegiate Basketball News Company was established in 1991 by Jim Sukup to bring Big Ten college basketball fans a Big Ten basketball newsletter called Collegiate Basketball News. The newsletter carried the latest in what was happening around the Big Ten along with a generous helping of statistics. The statistics included full box scores for all Big Ten games played, expanded Big Ten standings, full player-by-player team statistics, conference team and conference individual statistics, and an abbreviated version of the Rating Percentage Index (RPI). The RPI portion of the newsletter was an immediate hit, and the first issue of The RPI Report was dated January 6, 1992. Collegiate Basketball News continued through the 1992-93 season, when efforts were put into producing an expanded version of The RPI Report.

Prior to the publication of the men's RPI in Collegiate Basketball News and The RPI Report during the 1991-92 season, the term Rating Percentage Index and acronym RPI were largely unknown to the general public and to many administrators at NCAA Division I schools because the RPI ratings were not distributed to NCAA member institutions. In fact, the NCAA did not even submit the RPI ratings to Division I conferences or independent institutions until 1992 (with a notable exception in 1986). The NCAA now distributes men's and women's RPI data weekly to the public in a bare-bones manner, and the full suite of RPI information to the conferences and independent schools, after the completion of the full college basketball season. Distribution was limited prior to 2005 because the NCAA keeps the RPI data confidential within the committees that use the RPI for help with NCAA tournament selection and seeding purposes.

Publication of the RPI by CBN in 1992 created a cult following among college basketball fans throughout the land, and it is now the most widely followed college basketball computer rating system in the country. The RPI is also used by the NCAA tournament selection committees for baseball (first used in 1988), women's volleyball (1992), softball (1996), men's and women's soccer (1997), and field hockey (1998).

CBN's rpiratings.com web site was established 1997 to bring college basketball fans and CBN subscribers the most up-to-date RPI information available anywhere and to pass along additional information about Division I college basketball that is unavailable elsewhere. The RPI is the best, most informative and most widely followed college basketball computer rating system in the country, and CBN is pleased to bring this information to both our loyal The RPI Report and The Women's RPI Report subscribers, and to others that visit our free content areas.

The 2009-10 college basketball season was the 16th consecutive year that CBN made the men's RPI ratings available to the Associated Press for nationwide distribution on the AP wire and the 13th consecutive season for the women. Also, the 2014-15 season is the 22nd consecutive year that CBN provided the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook with RPI data.

Followers of college hoops have long known that there was no consistent and reliable source to turn to for access to the complete men's and women's Division I conference standings. Thankfully, this is no longer a problem. CBN provides complete men's and women's conference standings that are updated daily starting in late November. You will no longer need to hunt down the complete standings from many different sources that contain outdated or incorrect information. There is no need to surf through 32 different pages to get the complete conference standings. The CBN men's and women's standings are listed alphabetically by conference. Do you believe that you have spotted an error in the CBN men's or women's standings? If CBN verifies an error, we'll send you a complimentary issue of either the Men's or Women's Report!

The National Invitation Tournament (NIT) used the resources of CBN's RPI for the 13 years prior to its takeover in 2005-06 by the NCAA to help NIT committee members select teams for the nation's oldest men's Division I post-season tournament. The NIT also used the men's schedules compiled by CBN to help in their evaluation of prospective tournament teams. Also, the Women's National Invitation Tournament (WNIT) has used The Women's RPI Report since the 1998-99 season to help select teams for the post-season WNIT.

http://rpiratings.com/AboutCBN.php

wh · February 19, 2015, 12:06:20 PM

An RPI tie-breaker situation requires us to lose another game, which would lower our RPI another 10 -20 places, which renders the concern about RPI sources meaningless.

valpo4life · February 19, 2015, 01:54:47 PM

We can afford to lose 1 more game, as long as we beat Cleveland State we will host the tournament. 13-3 with a sweep of CSU gives us the nod regardless if we're tied with them or Green Bay.

Valpo89 · February 19, 2015, 03:00:07 PM

You all seem to just be assuming a win at Detroit on Wednesday night.
I know VU has had success playing there over the years, but I would not say that game is a gimme by any means.
One day at a time, just like Bryce and the players have been preaching. One day at a time.

oklahomamick · February 19, 2015, 03:12:27 PM

We win on senior night against an injured wsu team.

We have detroit and CSU left. No matter the outcome of the Detroit game, we beat CSU and meaning we win the HL for the 3rd time in 4 seasons. Do we commit and make CSU a must win game forcing the Detroit game as a practice or warm up.

covufan · February 19, 2015, 03:18:58 PM

Quote from: Valpo89 on February 19, 2015, 03:00:07 PM
You all seem to just be assuming a win at Detroit on Wednesday night.
I know VU has had success playing there over the years, but I would not say that game is a gimme by any means.
One day at a time, just like Bryce and the players have been preaching. One day at a time.

Valpo has proven (not this team, though) that there are no gimme games in the HL.

a3uge · February 19, 2015, 03:42:32 PM

Before anyone advocates using a metric other than RPI, the other rating systems wouldn't work because they are predictive ratings. Losing by 1 is better than losing by 40, but in reality a loss is a loss. BPI factors for injured players, etc. We also know the formula for RPI. We don't for these other ones. Also using point differential would be dumb because it would encourage teams to play starters the whole game when blowing out an opponent. Nobody wants to see teams taking 3s when UIC or YSU already have given up.

agibson · February 19, 2015, 04:21:19 PM

So, Valpo 14-2 is easy. Winning out, including @CSU, is obviously ideal.

If Valpo finishes 13-3 then wining at CSU is pretty important. That sweep would be the tiebreaker over GB, if needed. But, we could drop one to Detroit or WSU.

If we're 13-3 with the loss coming at CSU it's tougher. We'd need the winner of CSU @ GB to lose a game.

What's more likely, CSU loses at Milwaukee? Or GB loses either to oakland or at UIC?

Tough call. Maybe CSU losing at UMW? Either way, it may be that which of those scenarios is more likely determines our rooting interest on Friday.

I sort of hate to think about the 12-4 scenarios. Maybe there are still reasonablen scenarios where we host? But obviously it takes help. And it'd probably help if we beat CSU, somehow losing both to milwaukee and at Detroit.

Here's one interesting scenario, but no good for us: Oakland wins out. GB beats CSU. We lose at CSU and one other. Does that put all four of us at 12-4 with I guess oaklands sweep of GB giving them the tie breaker: 4-2 in the head-to-head games.

WiscoCrusader · February 19, 2015, 04:50:15 PM

I'm not sure I buy the premise, "RPI is RPI". For example, realtimerpi has had Valpo ahead of GB most of the season, and we are currently ahead by about 15 spots.

Is realtimerpi using "fake" RPI math?

To summarize the thread, is the Horizon League really saying that because GB played Wisconsin (and got crushed) and we didn't, that makes GB more deserving to be the conference champions in the event of an unresolvable tie? That's just sad... We lost by 1 at GB and won by 6 at home.

SanityLost17 · February 19, 2015, 04:51:07 PM

Detroit is 2-8 in their last 10 HL games. One of those wins came in overtime and the other game came on a desperation 3. If we are the team we think we are, we need to win that game and lock up the double bye. Only thing that really concerns me is that it is their senior night, so they may have a bigger crowd than usual.

Speaking of senior nights, is there any other team in the league that has to be on the road for 2 of them?

Side Note: Carter is more important for the CSU game than the Detroit game. Carter is going to need to be out there as much as humanly possible against CSU. Lean on Nickerson against detroit and then lean on Carter against CSU. Just my opinion.

agibson · February 19, 2015, 04:56:12 PM

Quote from: SanityLost17 on February 19, 2015, 04:51:07 PM
Side Note: Carter is more important for the CSU game than the Detroit game. Carter is going to need to be out there as much as humanly possible against CSU. Lean on Nickerson against detroit and then lean on Carter against CSU. Just my opinion.

I bet he still needs significant game minutes to get sharp.

If his toe's good, 20-25 at Detroit, 30 at CSU?

agibson · February 19, 2015, 05:00:05 PM

Quote from: WiscoCrusader on February 19, 2015, 04:50:15 PM
I'm not sure I buy the premise, "RPI is RPI". For example, realtimerpi has had Valpo ahead of GB most of the season, and we are currently ahead by about 15 spots.

Is realtimerpi using "fake" RPI math?

Huh? They've got us at. 63, GB at 48. About like any other RPI site, I expect.

Quote
To summarize the thread, is the Horizon League really saying that because GB played Wisconsin (and got crushed) and we didn't, that makes GB more deserving to be the conference champions in the event of an unresolvable tie? That's just sad... We lost by 1 at GB and won by 6 at home.

I wonder if they just didn't think hard about it?

Didn't like the behavior total points, or scoring differential, or similar would incentivize.

Didn't want a coin toss. I guess they could have used non-con record? But RPI might be better than that.

historyman · February 20, 2015, 07:59:00 AM

Quote from: WiscoCrusader on February 19, 2015, 04:50:15 PMWe lost by 1 at GB and won by 6 4 at home.

Sykes and team never gave up till the very last second.

Ladyingold · February 20, 2015, 08:50:56 AM

As for the HL would rather have GB host than Valpo because of seating capacity. I disagree, Valpo can pack the house and that looks great on TV! Just my opinion.

a3uge · February 20, 2015, 08:51:05 AM

Quote from: WiscoCrusader on February 19, 2015, 04:50:15 PM
I'm not sure I buy the premise, "RPI is RPI". For example, realtimerpi has had Valpo ahead of GB most of the season, and we are currently ahead by about 15 spots.

Is realtimerpi using "fake" RPI math?

As someone who obsesses over our RPI, this is 100% false.

valpopreacher · February 20, 2015, 03:54:48 PM

As another indicated, Crusaders can lose one more (either Wright State or Detroit) as long as we beat Cleveland State. If we win against WSU and Detroit, but then lose to Cleveland State, we can still hope for an Oakland win over the Green Bay at the end off the season!
However, I think this team would be better served being in 3rd place than 2nd. I'd rather have a big win at home before going to Green Bay or Cleveland as compared to a bye the first week.