Tiebreaker Scenario

[Chairback]

So are we officially Co-HL season champs at this point?  If so are we now guaranteed at least an NIT bid?
 

[agibson]

So are we officially Co-HL season champs at this point?  If so are we now guaranteed at least an NIT bid? 

Co-champs, yes.  I'm sure they only give one NIT auto-bid, and I'm 95% sure that'll go to whoever hosts the tournament.

[valpo4life]

Oakland does not have depth.  If we are #1 and they are #4 they are going to have to play us on 24 hours rest.  Several of their players play 36-40 minutes a game.   I like our odds against them.  Also, no way Hayes hits that many 3's against us agian.   

Agreed. Hayes had the game of his life for them to just stay in the game. Although I want to throw this into the conversation, Detroit as the 5 seed can easily take down whoever ends up in the 4 spot. With that game being on a neutral court, anything could happen there.

[HC]

I'd like to watch a Detroit/Oakland game in person...hopefully they'd bring a bunch of their fans down with them!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

i just posted the bracket (current) in the HL Standings thread, but will repost here...I'd much rather play Oakland in the semis than either CSU or GB.  We'll see this week...

[wh]

Following is every current tie-breaking scenario for every tournament seed.  Great job, Commissioner!


Re: Conference Season Scoreboard
Postby Commissioner » Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:37 pm

Cleveland's loss today to Milwaukee dramatically alters the possibilities for the Horizon year-end standings and seedings. What had looked pretty straightforward with a CSU win--Valpo plays at CSU for first and second; Oakland plays at Green Bay for 3rd and 4th--now offers up a boatload of possibilities.

Remember, the basic HL tiebreaker is simple. First, it's head to head. If the teams split, then look at which team has the best victory in league play- in other words compare the two against the 3rd place team, then the 4th place team, and so on down until one team has more wins than the other.

1. Valparaiso clinches the league title by winning at Detroit next Wednesday or at Cleveland State next Friday. That's the easy one.

2. If Valpo loses to both Detroit and CSU, and Oakland loses against Youngstown or at Green Bay, Valpo and Cleveland State would tie. CSU would own the tie breaker by virtue of having beaten Green Bay twice.

3. If Valpo loses out, and Oakland wins out, Valpo, CSU, and Oakland will be tied for first at 12-4. The teams split their meetings with each other, so we go to the second tiebreaker. Here, CSU and Oakland will both have defeated 4th place Green Bay twice, but Valpo beat them just once. Now it is down to CSU and Oakland. Each split with 5th place Milwaukee. Each split with 6th place Detroit. Each swept 7th, 8th, and 9th place UIC, Wright State, and YSU. So the resort to the final tiebreaker-- the team with the highest RPI is declared the regular season champ and hosts the tournament. As of this writing, CSU has an RPI of 126, and Oakland an RPI of 135. The RPI Wizard predicts that in this scenario, CSU would finish at 106, and Oakland at 112. That's close enough that they could swap depending on what their various non-conference opponents do in the next week. The loser of that duel would then be the second seed, since both CSU and Oakland will hold the tie breaker over Valpo by virtue of their wins over Green Bay.

4. If Valpo loses out and Green Bay wins out, Valpo, Green Bay, and CSU will be tied for the title. CSU would then be the league champ by virtue of a 3-1 record in head to head match ups between the three. Valpo would take second place, since it beat CSU once while Green Bay lost to CSU twice. Green Bay would be third and Oakland 4th.

5. A two way tie between Valpo and CSU would result if Valpo loses out and the winner of Oakland @ Green Bay loses its other remaining game (Green Bay @ UIC; YSU @ Oakland). CSU would again hold the tiebreaker by virtue of sweeping Green Bay. Valpo would be the #2 seed. Oakland would be the #3 seed unless it loses to both Green Bay and UIC, in which case Green Bay would be the #3 seed and Oakland #4.

Phew.

Now assume scenario 1 above - Valpo wins the outright title. What about 2nd, 3rd, and 4th?
6. If Cleveland State and Green Bay both win out, each will finish 12-4. CSU will be the #2 seed and get the double bye by virtue of sweeping Green Bay during the season. Green Bay will be #3 and Oakland #4.

7. If Cleveland State and Oakland both win out, each will finish 12-4. Each will have a split with Valpo and a sweep of Green Bay, then same as scenario 3 above - the higher RPI will be seeded #2, the other #3, Green Bay #4.

8. If CSU beats Valpo and both Green Bay and Oakland lose one game, CSU will be the #2 seed, Oakland #3, Green Bay #4.
a. If either Green Bay or Oakland loses out, the winner of Oakland @ Green Bay will be #3, the loser #4.

9. If CSU loses to Valpo, and either Green Bay or Oakland wins out, the Oakland-Green Bay winner will be seeded #2. The Oakland-Green Bay loser will be the #3 seed if it wins its other game. If it loses its other game, CSU will be the #3 seed.

10. If CSU loses to Valpo and the winner of Oakland @ Green Bay drops it other game, and the loser wins its other game, the three teams will be 11-5. If Oakland won the Green Bay game, Oakland will be the #2 seed, CSU #3, Green Bay #4. If Green Bay beat Oakland, CSU will be the #2 seed, Oakland #3, Green Bay #4.

Are you with me? Here is the easy part:

11. Detroit is the 5th seed. Period.

The bottom 3 are confusing. Wright State plays @ UIC and hosts Milwaukee; UIC hosts Wright State and plays @ Green Bay; YSU plays @ Oakland, and hosts Milwaukee.
12. If UIC or WSU wins out, it will be the #6 seed.

13. In the event of a three way tie between YSU, WSU, and UIC (this requires YSU winning out, and the winner of UIC/WSU losing its other game):
a. If UIC beats Wright State, UIC will be the #6 seed, YSU #7, and Wright State #8
b. If WSU beats UIC, YSU will be #6, UIC #7, and WSU #8

14. Two way tie breakers:
a. UIC and WSU tie: UIC is #6, WSU #7, YSU #8.
b. UIC and YSU tie with 4 wins:
i. UIC beats Green Bay: Wright State is #6, UIC #7, YSU #8
ii. UIC beats Wright State: YSU is #6, UIC #7, Wright State #8.
c. WSU and YSU tie with 4 wins:
i. WSU beats MIlwaukee: UIC is #6, YSU #7, Wright State #8.
ii. WSU beats UIC: YSU is #6, WSU #7, UIC #8.
d. UIC and YSU tie with 3 wins: Wright State is #6, YSU #7, UIC #8
e. WSU and YSU tie with 3 wins: UIC is #6, YSU #7, WSU #8, unless YSU loses to Oakland, but only if Detroit finishes with a higher RPI than Milwaukee.

Got it? Good.

[a3uge]

My head is spinning.

[covufan]

My head is spinning.

Ditto.

We will take care of things this week. I have confidence in this team.

[agibson]

A very thorough analysis!  Is that from the CSU board?  I certainly didn't check it all.  The one case I thought might be missing, that I'd mentioned recently with CSU 4th seed , is in fact there, hiding at #9.

[talksalot]

The rpiratings.com (the official HL site hosted by the Colleagiate Basketball News folks)... through games 2/22...(only D1 games count)

Rank  Team                      W   L   SS    Rk   RPI 
  62. Green Bay                19   7  .5089 132  .5686
  65. Valparaiso               22   4  .4465 287  .5660
123. Cleveland St.            15  12  .4956 159  .5238
134. Oakland                  13  14  .5297 106  .5191
207. Detroit                  11  17  .5027 145  .4795
215. Wright St.                9  17  .5163 121  .4748
229. Milwaukee                10  16  .5112 129  .4695
279. Youngstown St.            8  18  .4770 207  .4394
308. Illinois-Chicago          5  22  .4939 166  .4181

[Kyle321n]

I don't know what's worse, a team who will probably be hosting a tournament home game is ranked 308 in RPI or our SoS is ranked 287...

[Smj]

This is though because I think a loss before the tournament can be a good reminder before it really matters

[talksalot]

so... I dis-assembled the Commissioners blog from a few days ago, and took out all of the things that did not or cannot happen... here's what's left:

Postby Commissioner » Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:37 pm

1. Valparaiso clinches the league title ...by winning at Detroit next Wednesday or at Cleveland State next Friday.


That's the easy one.


Now assume scenario 1 above - Valpo wins the outright title. What about 2nd, 3rd, and 4th?

9. If CSU loses to Valpo, and either Green Bay or Oakland wins out, the Oakland-Green Bay winner will be seeded #2. The Oakland-Green Bay loser will be the #3 seed if it wins its other game.

11. Detroit is the 5th seed. Period.

The bottom 3 are confusing.
Current status:
WSU 3-12
UIC 3-12
YSU 2-13
Today's games:
WSU @ UIC at 1PM CT
MIL @ YSU at 6PM CT

14. Two way tie breakers:
d. UIC and YSU tie with 3 wins: Wright State is #6, YSU #7, UIC #8
e. WSU and YSU tie with 3 wins: UIC is #6, YSU #7, WSU #8, (unless YSU loses to Oakland [which they did], but only if Detroit #207 finishes with a higher RPI than Milwaukee #229  so they will.)

Got it? Good.

[VUfan]

My head is spinning.

Which Scenario applys now? 

[covufan]

My head is spinning.

Which Scenario applys now? 

as long as we are hosting, I don't care much about 2-8 (or Milw)!

[talksalot]

Top 5 if Green Bay wins at home against Oakland today:

Valpo
GB
OAK
CSU
DET

Top 5 if Oakland beats Green Bay today
Valpo
Oak
GB
CSU
DET

Bottom 3 seeds depend on the outcome of the WSU@UIC and MIL@YSU games today at 1pm and 7pm respectively.:

14. Two way tie breakers for the bottom 3 seeds:
d. UIC and YSU tie with 3 wins: Wright State is #6, YSU #7, UIC #8
e. WSU and YSU tie with 3 wins: UIC is #6, YSU #7, WSU #8,

so here are the 4 possible game outcomes

WSU and MIL win:
6 WSU
7 UIC
8 YSU

UIC and MIL win:
6.  UIC
7.  WSU
8.  YSU

WSU and YSU win:
6.  WSU
7.  YSU
8.  UIC

UIC and YSU win:
6.  UIC
7.  YSU
8.  WSU

[drewsaders11]

so it looks like we'll be playing detroit or cleveland state again. Interesting.

[crusadermoe]

I think we all agree that Detroit is the only threat lurking below the top 4.     Great to be the king, ain't it?   

Barring a huge upset in quarters we get CSU or Detroit in the semis.   I'd take that over Green Bay.  Their defense is rock solid.   And Oakland goes on hot streaks.

[agibson]

Top 5 if Oakland beats Green Bay today
Valpo
Oak
GB
CSU
DET

Doesn't CSU have the first tiebreaker over GB, head-to-head? Seems like GB would fall to 4.

[valpo4life]

That they do. If Oakland wins, GB becomes the 4. If GB wins, CSU becomes the 4

[talksalot]

That they do. If Oakland wins, GB becomes the 4. If GB wins, CSU becomes the 4

Not the way I read the Commish's breakdown...

[talksalot]

Here's the section I was using:

9. If CSU loses to Valpo, and either Green Bay or Oakland wins out, (which one of them will)  the Oakland-Green Bay winner will be seeded #2. The Oakland-Green Bay loser will be the #3 seed if it wins its other game (which they both did) . If it loses its other game, CSU will be the #3 seed.

[talksalot]

and a slight addition to the bottom-seeds scenarios... for ummmmm... clarification.

The bottom 3 are confusing.

Current standings:
WSU 3-12
UIC 3-12
YSU 2-13

Today's other games:
WSU @ UIC at 1PM CT
MIL @ YSU at 6PM CT

If YSU beats Milwaukee, there would be a tie.
a. UIC and YSU tie with 3 wins: Wright State is #6, YSU #7, UIC #8
b. WSU and YSU tie with 3 wins: UIC is #6, YSU #7, WSU #8,

If Milwaukee beats YSU, YSU is #8 and they travel to Detroit.;

The winner of the WSU/UIC game is #6 and the loser is #7.... and they play each other again on Tuesday on today's winner's court.

[valpo4life]

That they do. If Oakland wins, GB becomes the 4. If GB wins, CSU becomes the 4

Not the way I read the Commish's breakdown...

Craig Hammel from the Horizon League posted on twitter last night after our win the scenarios. Which is where I got my information for my post.

Oakland wins and they are the 2, CSU is the 3 and GB is the 4.
GB wins and they are the 2, Oakland is the 3, and CSU is the 4.

[valpo4life]

Here's the section I was using:

9. If CSU loses to Valpo, and either Green Bay or Oakland wins out, (which one of them will)  the Oakland-Green Bay winner will be seeded #2. The Oakland-Green Bay loser will be the #3 seed if it wins its other game (which they both did) . If it loses its other game, CSU will be the #3 seed.

You even acknowledge here that GB and Oakland both won its other game, and in that case the loser of that game is the 3 seed...