Valpo @ UDM Wednesday February 25, 2015 6pm Central Time

[covufan]

So was that a trap game?

no, just a crap game.

Or a tarp game - drape a tarp on this game and forget about it!

[SanityLost17]

Although I do believe that Carter should return as the starting point guard, I was not very happy with his shot selection last night.  There was a key stretch in the 2nd half where he, as well as a few others, fired up some ill-advised 3 pointers.

As others have said, it was the offensive rebounding that really killed us.

I think what makes me most angry about this is that Detroit should have a better record.  This loss makes us look bad.  The casual observer around the country assumes that Detroit sucks, because that is what their record indicates.  They don't suck, they just only pick 4-5 games a year to play up to their potential.   

Good news...   We have not lost 2 games in a row all year.   So...  There is still hope.     

[covufan]

I looked at ESPN BPI and Detroit played their best game in HL play since games 2 and 3, which were both wins.  As others pointed out before the game, Detroit has talent and potential to beat just about anyone at home.  We have played well after our other losses, but so has CSU. 

We are not going to win many games where we are 8-26 from within the 3-pt line.  Poor shooting and shot selection.  We only had 18 fouls, which compared to previous years is pretty good.  Timing of those fouls is another matter.  We ended up with one more rebound, but one less offensive rebound, and ended up with more 2nd chance points.  Just 2 or 3 more defensive rebounds could have made the difference.  We still are having troubles with a lead at the end of the game.  We need to find that instinct to put the game away when we have a four point lead and 5 minutes remaining.

I spent about 15 years living in Bloomington, IN when Knight was the coach.  One of the things I respected about Knight's coaching style was his lack of use of timeouts towards the end of the game (or half).  His philosophy was that he wanted to coach his players during practice so that they would know what to do, especially against a team that is looking to their coach for what to do next when a game is on the line.  To him, it was an advantage to not take the timeout - thereby giving his opponent the opportunity to sub players and set up a specific defense/offense.  In a tie game with just under a minute, going for the 2-for-1 gives us two possessions to their one possession.  We really needed this advantage, but were not able to take advantage of the situation.  I'm sure everyone learned from this experience. 

[justducky]

'm ready to move on from the 6'8" PG experiment. It was good when KC was out, but now he's back. Let's start KC, back him up with Max with EVic backing up the Walkers.

Is KC back? It looked to me that Max was substituted for Keith for a reason. I couldn't see the bench but I am sure he was pulled for a lecture on some poor decision making.

One of things that EVN brings that gets unnoticed is his defense. When he is at the top of the zone or covering a smaller guard man on man passing lanes shrink, shots become difficult and we seem to allow fewer easy baskets. With KC in the game some of those benefits disappear. When KC is 100% (probably next year) I think he will log more minutes at the 2 than the 1 (assuming a full Lexus recovery). I do not expect Nickerson to be completely removed from all point guard duties. He just does not fit perfectly anywhere on the floor. He is not a 4. He has many limitation at the 3. He is definitely not a 2 but as a 1 he offers options that no one else can. Like I said before he is "high risk- high reward" and last night we chose to play it a little safer and we lost.

[a3uge]

'm ready to move on from the 6'8" PG experiment. It was good when KC was out, but now he's back. Let's start KC, back him up with Max with EVic backing up the Walkers.

Is KC back? It looked to me that Max was substituted for Keith for a reason. I couldn't see the bench but I am sure he was pulled for a lecture on some poor decision making.

One of things that EVN brings that gets unnoticed is his defense. When he is at the top of the zone or covering a smaller guard man on man passing lanes shrink, shots become difficult and we seem to allow fewer easy baskets. With KC in the game some of those benefits disappear. When KC is 100% (probably next year) I think he will log more minutes at the 2 than the 1 (assuming a full Lexus recovery). I do not expect Nickerson to be completely removed from all point guard duties. He just does not fit perfectly anywhere on the floor. He is not a 4. He has many limitation at the 3. He is definitely not a 2 but as a 1 he offers options that no one else can. Like I said before he is "high risk- high reward" and last night we chose to play it a little safer and we lost.

You're right, Nickerson does not fit perfectly anywhere on the floor. He fits perfectly on the bench. I thought EVN played terrible defense last night and Carter was an improvement on both defense and offense. Nickerson was not disrupting passing lanes as they were able to feed it inside all game. He's usually a better defender, but last night was his worst game.

[HC]

Pretty sure KC got put on the pine for Max right after he took a pretty deep three with 24 seconds or so left on the shot clock.

[bbtds]

So was that a trap game?

No. A trap game is one you overlook because there seems to be a more important game in the future. The importance of this Detroit game was extremely evident in that if Valpo had won they would have secured first place and hosted the HL tournament. It also would have made the Cleve St game less meaningful.

When Alec was quoted as saying "we want this game really bad" it seemed that maybe Valpo was pushing too hard and screwed up just enough to lose to Detroit in the last minute. Some of the same pressure will be on CSU that was on Valpo at Detroit, that was not on the Titans because they had already locked up 5th place. It's that pressure that makes you overplay the opponent's best three point shooter on the most important play of the game.

[justducky]

You're right, Nickerson does not fit perfectly anywhere on the floor. He fits perfectly on the bench. I thought EVN played terrible defense last night and Carter was an improvement on both defense and offense. Nickerson was not disrupting passing lanes as they were able to feed it inside all game. He's usually a better defender, but last night was his worst game.

If I get the chance I will take another look at the game with exclusive attention to both of their performances. Look at it this way EVN helps this team best when he is playing point or he hurts the team worst when he is playing point but when he is sitting on the bench I just start to nod off.  Sometimes you have to carefully sort through the debris and rubble before you can get an accurate count on the casualties.

[VUfan]

This was the first game in a while that we got out rebounded and out scored in the paint. Turn those things around and this game in not even close.

[classof2014]

The reason why Detroit won was that they were able to get second and third chances which turn into buckets. If we have a normal rebounding game we win. I would imagine this game is a lesson that we need to play our best if not anyone can beat us.

I don't mean to be redundant but if we win tonight, this game is nothing more than a blip on the radar.

[a3uge]

The reason why Detroit won was that they were able to get second and third chances which turn into buckets. If we have a normal rebounding game we win. I would imagine this game is a lesson that we need to play our best if not anyone can beat us.

I don't mean to be redundant but if we win tonight, this game is nothing more than a blip on the radar.

Hopefully its just a blip. If we win out, we'll be looking back on this season as one of the best in the history of the program.... We'd have a chance to finish the season with a top 50 RPI for the first time ever, set a school record for wins, and play a beatable team in the tournament (unless God hates us and gives us Louisville in Louisville).

But I'm not really expecting this. Losing in Detroit probably becomes the "what could have been" in a start to a 2011-like collapse. With the way the team has been playing the past few games, it feels that way. We were down to UWM and Wright State at half and just lost to Detroit. We didnt really grab momentum from that UWGB win and are still trying to find our mojo. But you're right, tonight can rewrite that game as a small blip and give us tremendous momentum and a chance to play 2 home games against teams we've already beat.

[valpo84]

Louisville can't be seated in Louisville.

[a3uge]

Louisville can't be seated in Louisville.

You're right. I just looked up the rules and you can't play games at a place you've played 3+ times.

[agibson]

We'd have a chance to finish the season with a top 50 RPI for the first time ever, set a school record for wins, and play a beatable team in the tournament

Yeah, a little to my surprise, looks like we could still be right around 50 if we win out.

Maybe there are scenarios where we lose and play through the #3 seed and do a little better than that.

[a3uge]

We'd have a chance to finish the season with a top 50 RPI for the first time ever, set a school record for wins, and play a beatable team in the tournament

Yeah, a little to my surprise, looks like we could still be right around 50 if we win out.

Maybe there are scenarios where we lose and play through the #3 seed and do a little better than that.

Yeah it calculates to 52 on RPI Wizard, but that doesn't factor in the neutral court win(s) the team playing in the championship game would have. For example, the wizard assumes a 65 RPI UWGB for the HL championship game, not a 55 RPI if they beat Oakland and the CSU at a neutral site. Also, if we make the tourney, we'll play a team that will improve our RPI even with a loss. When it comes down to it, it doesn't really matter that much, but finishing with the best RPI in the history of the program and being below 50 for the first time would be amazing.

[agibson]

Yeah it calculates to 52 on RPI Wizard, but that doesn't factor in the neutral court win(s) the team playing in the championship game would have. For example, the wizard assumes a 65 RPI UWGB for the HL championship game, not a 55 RPI if they beat Oakland and the CSU at a neutral site. Also, if we make the tourney, we'll play a team that will improve our RPI even with a loss. When it comes down to it, it doesn't really matter that much, but finishing with the best RPI in the history of the program and being below 50 for the first time would be amazing.

Interesting - you might be right about the RPI Wizard methodology.  I suppose when we add games we don't specify that they're post-season, requiring extra wins for the opponent.

But probably RPI Forecast -does- take that into account?

Do you know what/when our record season-ending RPI was?

[a3uge]

Yeah it calculates to 52 on RPI Wizard, but that doesn't factor in the neutral court win(s) the team playing in the championship game would have. For example, the wizard assumes a 65 RPI UWGB for the HL championship game, not a 55 RPI if they beat Oakland and the CSU at a neutral site. Also, if we make the tourney, we'll play a team that will improve our RPI even with a loss. When it comes down to it, it doesn't really matter that much, but finishing with the best RPI in the history of the program and being below 50 for the first time would be amazing.

Interesting - you might be right about the ROI Wizard methodology.  I suppose when we add games we don't specify that they're post-season, requiring extra wins for the opponent.

But probably RPI Forecast -does- take that into account?

Do you know what/when our record season-ending RPI was?

They have expected RPI's with conference tourneys, but that's a separate option and it's not very reliable. The Wizard doesn't factor that in.

If you're looking for historical RPIs, well, I have them:

Code Select Expand


Year         W L RPI  Postseason Overall Attendance
1991-1992 5 22 286         2,031
1992-1993 12 16 215         2,640
1993-1994 19 8 118         3,251
1994-1995 18 8 115         3,446
1995-1996 19 10 129 NCAA (14) 3,886
1996-1997 22 6 65 NCAA (12) 3,625
1997-1998 18 8 83 NCAA (13)* 3,861
1998-1999 17 8 134 NCAA (15) 4,327
1999-2000 16 12 193 NCAA (16) 4,039
2000-2001 24 8 117         4,327
2001-2002 24 7 91 NCAA (13) 4,530
2002-2003 20 10 107 NIT         4,376
2003-2004 17 12 154 NCAA (15) 3,945
2004-2005 15 16 181         4,174
2005-2006 16 12 206         3,353
2006-2007 16 15 162         3,520
2007-2008 22 14 104 CBI         3,666
2008-2009 9 22 259         2,973
2009-2010 15 17 178         2,739
2010-2011 23 12 84 CIT         3,362
2011-2012 22 12 103 NIT         3,383
2012-2013 26 8 58 NCAA (14) 3,173
2013-2014 18 16 184 CIT         2,833


[agibson]

So, 58 looks like the high water mark?

We had a season with _average_ home attendance north of 4,500?  Crazy!

[covufan]

Are these RPI's the 'just before NCAA tournament' RPI's?  If so, what was the 1998 team's RPI after going to the sweet sixteen and then losing to Rhode Island?

[agibson]

Are these RPI's the 'just before NCAA tournament' RPI's?  If so, what was the 1998 team's RPI after going to the sweet sixteen and then losing to Rhode Island?

I really don't have a good source here.  Lexis Nexis?

Looks like CBN was publishing RPI back then, but didn't have a web presence (at least not with their current domain name).

The NCAA has a web archive, but it doesn't seem to go back very far...

Anybody?

[a3uge]

Are these RPI's the 'just before NCAA tournament' RPI's?  If so, what was the 1998 team's RPI after going to the sweet sixteen and then losing to Rhode Island?

Gah, now I remember - it cuts off at 1999. Here's the last final season report: https://rpiarchive.ncaa.org/Stats%20Library/1999%20Final%20RPI.pdf

It looks like before then is probably pre-tourney RPIs.

[agibson]

Jerry Palm's website
http://www.collegerpi.com
seems to have a pretty deep archive.

But, for 1998 it looks like he only has pre-NCAA tournament RPI's.

[wh]

Yeah it calculates to 52 on RPI Wizard, but that doesn't factor in the neutral court win(s) the team playing in the championship game would have. For example, the wizard assumes a 65 RPI UWGB for the HL championship game, not a 55 RPI if they beat Oakland and the CSU at a neutral site. Also, if we make the tourney, we'll play a team that will improve our RPI even with a loss. When it comes down to it, it doesn't really matter that much, but finishing with the best RPI in the history of the program and being below 50 for the first time would be amazing.

Interesting - you might be right about the ROI Wizard methodology.  I suppose when we add games we don't specify that they're post-season, requiring extra wins for the opponent.

But probably RPI Forecast -does- take that into account?

Do you know what/when our record season-ending RPI was?

They have expected RPI's with conference tourneys, but that's a separate option and it's not very reliable. The Wizard doesn't factor that in.

If you're looking for historical RPIs, well, I have them:

Code Select Expand


Year         W L RPI  Postseason Overall Attendance
1991-1992 5 22 286         2,031
1992-1993 12 16 215         2,640
1993-1994 19 8 118         3,251
1994-1995 18 8 115         3,446
1995-1996 19 10 129 NCAA (14) 3,886
1996-1997 22 6 65 NCAA (12) 3,625
1997-1998 18 8 83 NCAA (13)* 3,861
1998-1999 17 8 134 NCAA (15) 4,327
1999-2000 16 12 193 NCAA (16) 4,039
2000-2001 24 8 117         4,327
2001-2002 24 7 91 NCAA (13) 4,530
2002-2003 20 10 107 NIT         4,376
2003-2004 17 12 154 NCAA (15) 3,945
2004-2005 15 16 181         4,174
2005-2006 16 12 206         3,353
2006-2007 16 15 162         3,520
2007-2008 22 14 104 CBI         3,666
2008-2009 9 22 259         2,973
2009-2010 15 17 178         2,739
2010-2011 23 12 84 CIT         3,362
2011-2012 22 12 103 NIT         3,383
2012-2013 26 8 58 NCAA (14) 3,173
2013-2014 18 16 184 CIT         2,833


Home attendance this year is around 2900. If we were to host, that should rise above 3000. The 3 non D-1 games only averaged a little more than 1000, making the D-1 appx 3400. Another good reason to shed non D1 opponents.

[covufan]

 

Another good reason to get rid of non D1 opponents.

[a3uge]

I've been tracking our attendance in a spreadsheet for the past 3,4 years and have detailed records since 2006. I'll post this years results if we win tonight, if not, I'll probably be too bummed out to think about Valpo basketball.