Favorite and dark horse for the conference

Valpofan02 · February 22, 2015, 05:00:56 PM

I would have to say Valpo and csu r the favorites and Oakland has potential to beat anybody as well

Valpofan00 · February 22, 2015, 05:05:37 PM

Anybody in the league can win any given night. We need to play good basketball for 40 minutes how we've done this whole season, and we will be dancing in March!!

Valpofan02 · February 22, 2015, 05:18:23 PM

If csu still had Bryn forbes(who is playing at Michigan state) csu would very tough to beat

oklahomamick · February 22, 2015, 05:24:50 PM

All top 4 teams can win it all. Bottoms 4 don't have a chance.

wh · February 22, 2015, 06:12:18 PM

Quote from: Valpofan02 on February 22, 2015, 05:18:23 PM
If csu still had Bryn forbes(who is playing at Michigan state) csu would very tough to beat

Yeah, their board has been talking about that for a year now. I wonder if they ever heard of a 1st team all league player by the name of Brandon Wood? Stuff happens. Move on.

gamelord · February 22, 2015, 08:45:38 PM

Quote from: oklahomamick on February 22, 2015, 05:24:50 PM
All top 4 teams can win it all. Bottoms 4 don't have a chance.

This is exactly how I see it. It's gonna be either Valpo, GB, or CSU and Oakland has an outside chance.

oklahomamick · February 22, 2015, 08:58:45 PM

Let's hope it's not Oakland, they may get a 16 seed. CSU would probably be at 15.

classof2014 · February 23, 2015, 09:13:54 AM

The HL is probably rooting for Valpo, we have the best shot at a high seed, 11 being the highest but doubtful while a 12 or 13 is likely.

I would hate there to be another Milwaukee situation where Green Bay was by far the best team last season and would've been an 11 or 12 with a shot at making a run, instead of Milwaukee getting a 15 and having a minuscule shot at winning a game.

If Valpo wins their final 2 games and the tourney I say we get a 12 go 1-1 we get a 13. Lose both but win the tournament possibly a 14. Win the rest of the games we can get as high as an 11, doubtful but there's a chance.

historyman · February 23, 2015, 06:37:36 PM

Quote from: classof2014 on February 23, 2015, 09:13:54 AMIf Valpo wins their final 2 games and the tourney I say we get a 12 go 1-1 we get a 13. Lose both but win the tournament possibly a 14. Win the rest of the games we can get as high as an 11, doubtful but there's a chance.

Haven't we already discussed the fact that what the other teams do that make the tournament has more to do with Valpo's eventual seed than what Valpo actually does? You can say all you want but the selection committee must consider the whole field vs considering how just one team does. If Valpo wins out and wins the HL tourney the seed will be determined mostly by our fellow Big Dance teams and no bitching, moaning or whining is going to change that. No matter how much "enjoyment" you get out of cursing the selection committee it's true every year until the NCAA chances the process.

drewsaders11 · February 23, 2015, 07:06:14 PM

I would argue that this year, Valpo is clearly one of the top mid-major teams, as opposed to 2013.

Several teams have moved up in conferences (Davidson, Creighton, Butler, VCU, Tulsa, even WKU and afew other C-USA teams). There are fewer quality pure mid-major teams in the running than even 2 years ago for the auto conference bids that will be seeded 12-16. Thus, I would argue that if Valpo wins out, they get a 12.

But in terms of favorite for the conference tourney? Valpo, obviously. Dark Horse? Nobodies been on a tear, so nobody, really.

Pathfinder · February 23, 2015, 08:14:28 PM

QuoteThe HL is probably rooting for Valpo, we have the best shot at a high seed

Actually, no, Green Bay still has the best shot at a high seed. Their win at Miami is still the best non-conference win for the Horizon this year; if they beat you at the ARC it will be a better win than if you beat them at the ARC (because it will be a road win vs. a home win), giving them a second win better than any on your resume; if they win out they'll have a higher RPI than if you win out. Best scenario for Horizon in terms of seeding is Valpo beats Detroit and CSU to host tournament; Green Bay wins out for the #2 seed; and Green Bay beats Valpo at the ARC for title. Of course, if Valpo is more likely to win a game or two, than that is the best outcome regardless of seeding.

wh · February 23, 2015, 08:28:04 PM

Quote from: Pathfinder on February 23, 2015, 08:14:28 PM
QuoteThe HL is probably rooting for Valpo, we have the best shot at a high seed

Actually, no, Green Bay still has the best shot at a high seed. Their win at Miami is still the best non-conference win for the Horizon this year; if they beat you at the ARC it will be a better win than if you beat them at the ARC (because it will be a road win vs. a home win), giving them a second win better than any on your resume; if they win out they'll have a higher RPI than if you win out. Best scenario for Horizon in terms of seeding is Valpo beats Detroit and CSU to host tournament; Green Bay wins out for the #2 seed; and Green Bay beats Valpo at the ARC for title. Of course, if Valpo is more likely to win a game or two, than that is the best outcome regardless of seeding.

The conference treats its tournament games as neutral games - no special home team introductions, moving our band and student section to a different area, no partiality by the public address announcer, no preferential bench area, no preferential fan seating, etc., etc. Are you saying the host team is still considered the home team for RPI calculation?

Pathfinder · February 23, 2015, 09:22:28 PM

Yes.

a3uge · February 23, 2015, 10:47:33 PM

Quote from: wh on February 23, 2015, 08:28:04 PMThe conference treats its tournament games as neutral games - no special home team introductions, moving our band and student section to a different area, no partiality by the public address announcer, no preferential bench area, no preferential fan seating, etc., etc. Are you saying the host team is still considered the home team for RPI calculation?

It certainly is. The Horizon League's rules are baffling.

hailcrusaders · February 24, 2015, 12:31:12 AM

If we host, I'd give Valpo about a 45% chance of winning, while 2 and 3 seeds about 20% each and 4 seed a 10% (since they'd have to play us in semis and no double bye), no matter who among CSU, GB and Oak get them. Rest of the field (i.e. Detroit) 5%. We would be clear favorites, with no true "dark horses." That's just how it's played out this year with the dichotomy between good and bad squads.

If it's in CSU or green bay I think host school becomes the favorites, although I can't say I'm unconfident in our ability to win at either place. I think we have a better chance at winning a tournament in Cleveland or GB than either of those schools do here.

covufan · February 24, 2015, 10:41:28 AM

Quote from: hailcrusaders on February 24, 2015, 12:31:12 AM
If we host, I'd give Valpo about a 45% chance of winning, while 2 and 3 seeds about 20% each and 4 seed a 10% (since they'd have to play us in semis and no double bye), no matter who among CSU, GB and Oak get them. Rest of the field (i.e. Detroit) 5%. We would be clear favorites, with no true "dark horses." That's just how it's played out this year with the dichotomy between good and bad squads.

If it's in CSU or green bay I think host school becomes the favorites, although I can't say I'm unconfident in our ability to win at either place. I think we have a better chance at winning a tournament in Cleveland or GB than either of those schools do here.

Teamrankings has 78.4% chance of hosting the HL tournament, and an overall 35.8% chance of winning the HL tournament. GB still has an overall 36.8% of winning the HL tournament, even though they have no chance of hosting. CSU has an overall 19.5% chance of winning the HL tournament, and Oakland an overall 5.5% chance of winning the HL tournament. Detroit has a 2.0% chance of winning the whole thing.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections

I still think we are the favorite, with Oakland as the dark horse.