Valpo @ CSU, Fri 2/27 9 PM CST ESPNU

[agibson]

Vegas has us as a 3 point underdog.  I don't remember the last time Vegas gave us points. 

Most recently?  Probably about a month ago, Valpo @ UWGB.

[Kyle321n]

I think we were a vegas dog against Murray St and Mizzou this season too.

[oklahomamick]

correct, we were underdogs to Missouri and at UWGB.  UWGB was only 1.5.  We need to win this game. 

GB has a slightly better chance with CSU being the host, since their atmosphere at the ARC would be less intimidating. 

I'll take my chances with GB in Cleveland (fewer and less engaged fans in a cavernous arena) versus playing in a packed ARC in Valparaiso, IN, where it can be pretty intimidating.

These are from the UWGB forum.  I know CSU wants to host their first HL men's bball tournament but Valpo would be fun.   

[wh]

We were 12-5 against the spread through the first GB game. We have covered only 3 of 8 games since.  The difference isn't huge because we've still been winning, just not covering. Now that KC has gotten the kinks out hopefully we're ready to return to our early conference form. If we can pull off this win tonight, we could be ready for a couple of dominant tourney performances.

By the way I think some of the comments of EVN's play have been overly critical. Yes, he had a bad game at Detroit, but name someone who didn't. On balance he has been a life saver in the absence of KC.

[classof2014]

CSU hasn't been playing well as of late either. They've lost 2 of 3, the losses were to Milwaukee and Detroit. They beat GB but if they win those 2 games their season is very different. Both teams squandered some golden opportunities to lesser opponents. I still believe that Valpo is a better team and should be able to beat CSU.

Hopefully we come out with the mentality to avenge a bad loss that could've clinched the title. I expect Valpo to be ready mentally and physically for this game. My guess is KC gets the start tonight, we need him for this game, last time EVN looked uneasy against CSU which plays a very stingy defense. Make our FTs and 3s we should win.

We have more offensive power than CSU and can play with the same defensive intensity.

[HC]

Probably at Green Bay

[setshot]

A starting time of 10:oo pm EST is tough on us old folk. But more disappointing is the fact that we will miss Bill Maher and will watch Valpo instead. It's like going from comedy to tragedy in one fell swoop. Bad for the digestive system too

[Kyle321n]

It's also tough to not hit enter 100 times

[agibson]

correct, we were underdogs to Missouri and at UWGB.  UWGB was only 1.5. 

1.5 dogs at UWGB sounds plausible... I probably wouldn't doubt it if I hadn't double-checked this morning that we _were_ dogs.

From
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/valparaiso-@-wisconsin-green-bay.cfm/date/01-23-15/time/2100
it looks like it was 5, 5.5, 6 points.

Unless I'm missing something?

Here's a season summary
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/valparaiso
4.5 point dogs @ Mizzou.
2.5 for the Murray State game.
5.5 for @ UWGB.

5.5 point _favorites_ @ Oakaland.
_8.5_ point favorites when UNM came to town.

Looks like 3.5 dogs @ CSU. 

Let's hope it's like Murray State!

[a3uge]

As odd as this sounds, I think we could win the tournament as a 2 seed (which is likely given a loss). We'd have essentially have 2 chances to beat CSU on the road (if they win their first game) and a game against Green Bay when they're only on a day of rest. Tonight may seem like a must win, but there's still a glimmer of hope if we don't. CSU is still a team that finished 4-8 OOC and lost to Savannah State. I know everyone's going to overreact and panic if we lose but I won't be ready to call this season over yet.

[agibson]

CSU is still a team that finished 4-8 OOC and lost to Savannah State. I know everyone's going to overreact and panic if we lose but I won't be ready to call this season over yet.

And lost to Akron, and to _Eastern Illinois_ at home.

Tonight may seem like a must win, but there's still a glimmer of hope if we don't.

Agreed.  Probably more than a glimmer.  Even with a close loss, I'm not ready to declare 2011 yet.  (I was at that Bracketbuster... all the way from France!  Sort of.  What a match-up!  What a game!  What was our RPI at the time?  Must have been pretty shiny.  And then... a 20 point loss _at home_, to _Loyola_? Blargh!)

But, let's win tonight!

[justducky]

CSU has no clear cut advantage over us (other than home court) either tonight or in a rematch in 10 days. Anything can happen and I remain optimistic.

[crusadermoe]

Sounds like the voice of reason.      By the way, has someone posted the tiebreakers here if Valpo were to lose to CSU.

Is it RPI?.....or does something decide ahead of that?

[valpo4life]

If we lose and GB wins, we're the 2 seed in Cleveland. If we lose and Oakland wins, we're the 3 seed in more than likely Cleveland (that's me guessing they will have a higher RPI than Oakland)

[covufan]

And if you want to read all of the scenarios, thank StlVUFan:

http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/

[a3uge]

If we lose - CSU hosts. Then the seeds depend on Oakland-UWGB game.

UWGB Wins: CSU 1, Valpo 2, UWGB 3, Oakland 4.
Oak Wins: CSU 1, Oakland 2, Valpo 3 UWGB 4.

Now if Valpo wins, here's the seeds based on that uwgb-oakland game:

UWGB wins: Valpo 1, UWGB 2, Oakland 3, CSU 4.
Oakland wins: Valpo 1, Oakland 2, CSU 3, UWGB 4.

Easy stuff.

[wh]

I've been so "Valpo-focused" that I didn't realize that Oakland will have the 2 seed and double bye with a win at GB. Huge game for them. They might be playing the best basketball of the top 4 right now.

[StlVUFan]

By the way I think some of the comments of EVN's play have been overly critical. Yes, he had a bad game at Detroit, but name someone who didn't. On balance he has been a life saver in the absence of KC.

[StlVUFan]

If we lose - CSU hosts. Then the seeds depend on Oakland-UWGB game.

UWGB Wins: CSU 1, Valpo 2, UWGB 3, Oakland 4.
Oak Wins: CSU 1, Oakland 2, Valpo 3 UWGB 4.

That last one is a prediction on your part, you realize?  CSU-Oakland is broken by RPI.

[valpo95]

If we lose - CSU hosts. Then the seeds depend on Oakland-UWGB game.

UWGB Wins: CSU 1, Valpo 2, UWGB 3, Oakland 4.
Oak Wins: CSU 1, Oakland 2, Valpo 3 UWGB 4.

Now if Valpo wins, here's the seeds based on that uwgb-oakland game:

UWGB wins: Valpo 1, UWGB 2, Oakland 3, CSU 4.
Oakland wins: Valpo 1, Oakland 2, CSU 3, UWGB 4.

Easy stuff.

We're all hoping for a VU win, but there is a ton of pressure on CSU as well.  If they lose, they miss out on the double-bye for sure and could be as low as fourth. 

[valpo95]

The other thing I was thinking about all day is that in conference play, Valpo has one OT loss (@Oakland), one single-point loss (@GB) where Valpo had some shots to win with less than 20 seconds, and Wednesday's three point loss (@Detroit) on free throws with one second left.  They head into tonight's game with a strong conference record and a chance to win the league outright, which again is better than most expected.  Finally, if there was a game to have an off night, perhaps Wednesday was the best possible game to do it (as long as tonight works out!).

[Valpofan00]

Wouldn't be surprised if we get blown out. We looked horrible against Detroit and have actually looked pretty bad our last 5 games or so

[vu72]

Vegas has us a 3.5 dog.  That's about right Sagarin gives 3.27 as the home court advantage.  That simply means it's a toss up.  Better team wins.  GO VALPO!!

[vu72]

Looks like we are in good shape to start on time. Akron up 53-42 with 7:04 to go at 8:33 central.

[oklahomamick]

It looks like Akron has a newer gym.  I prefer our older field house.