Post Season Awards and Tourney Predictions

[HC]

As biased fans who do you have winning the postseason awards?
First Team: Peters (POY - best player on the best team. Doesn't need 15-20 shots a game to get his points), Sykes, Felder, Lewis, Petros

Second Team: Grady, Howard, Hain, Mays, Tiby

Freshman: Bass, TWalker, Hayes, and the rest I don't know!

Defense (don't really know much here): Williams (Co DPOY - eliminates one player each game), Fernandez (Co DPOY - eliminates an entire area of the court), Fouse, Felder, Sykes

COY: Drew

For the tournament I just can't find any upsets until the final game where I think it will be a war between Valpo and Green Bay with Valpo coming out on top.

[a3uge]

If Drew doesn't win coach of the year...

[oklahomamick]

player of the year
Sykes (this is what I think will happen)

1st team
Sykes
Felder
Lewis
Peters
Grady

2nd team
Petros
Howard jr.
Fouse
Mayes
T.walker

defensive team
Doy - Williams
Fernandez
Fouse
Sykes
Felder

freshman team
foy- Bass
Hayes
T.walker
Benzinger
Skara

6th man
?

coach of year
slocum howard. Drew

[HC]

Lewis is a stud, both a first and second teamer! Lol

[oklahomamick]

Lewis is a stud, both a first and second teamer! Lol

dang it....fixed. 

[setshot]

As far as I am concerned it is no longer coach Nept. It's coach Bryce Drew. One hell of a job in recruiting scheduling,game management and image.He's my COY. Go Valpo!

[justducky]

 

As far as I am concerned it is no longer coach Nept. It's coach Bryce Drew.

I am equally impressed!

[agibson]

As biased fans who do you have winning the postseason awards?

High time for this thread!  I've been wondering why we didn't have one.

I'd be happy for unbiased predictions as well.  Or predictions of others' bias!  Who do you think _will_ win?  Or _should_ win?

[classof2014]

1st Team

Peters (POY)
Sykes
Felder
Lewis
Howard

2nd Team

Grady
Lee
Petros
Tiby
D. Walker

Defensive

Fernandez (D PoY)
Fouse
Williams
McWhorter
Sykes

Freshmen

T. Walker (FoY)
Bass
Skara
Benzinger
Daniels

6th Man

Kaza Keane

CoY

Wardle








JK

Bryce

[agibson]

Looking a bit at the league stats
http://hln.s3.amazonaws.com/sports/statfiles/2/stats.pdf?1425107788
with some notes, below.  Looking mostly with POTY in mind.

I trust that Valpo winning the league will give Alec the benefit of the doubt and he'll stay on the first team, despite his numbers falling off pretty sharply in league play.  But, I'd be pretty shocked if he wins POTY.  Very efficient, leading role on the winning team.  But, too much of a _team_ player to garner individual glory?

And, are we going to put anyone else on the first team?  T Walker, D Walker, and Vashil could maybe get some looks for second team...

I hope T Walker's a look for the freshman team, and Vashil for the defensive team.

Some assorted notes, looking mostly at overall play, rather than HL play.

Sorting by PPG.

Sykes 18.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG (top 20), 45.8 FG% #12, 4.0 APG #5, #10 FT%, #3 steals PG, #14 3P made (1.4 per game), #5 A/TO (1.8), #8 MPG, the two highest scoring games of anyone in the league (one also tied for max attempts)

Howard 17.8 PPG, 2.5 APG #13, #3 FT%, #8 3P% (#4 3P made), _not_ top 10 MPG, three of the four highest FG attempt games of anyone in league

Felder 17.4 PPG (#2 in HL play), 7.8 APG #1, 4.6 RPG (top 20), #4  FT%, 2.0 steals PG #2, #12 3P%, #4 A/TO (1.9), #1 MPG (38.4); 19 FT's against Valpo was 5 more than any other HL player in any game this season; 24 attempted was 7 more; 14, 13, and 13 assist games; an 8 TO game to tie for the league max; 5 double-doubles (P-A), 6th most

Lewis 16.9 PPG, #12 FT%, #9 A/TO, 35.5 MPG (#4), 2 double-doubles (P-RB)

Peters 16.8PPG (falls to #9 in HL play), 6.8 RPG #6 (#4 in HL play), 49.9 FG% #6 (#15 in league play), #5 FT%, #2 3P% 47.2% (#3 3P made) (#10 43.1% in HL play), #8 ORPG, _not_ top 10 MPG (29.9 MPG - Felder's played 28% more, Sykes 16% more), 6 double-doubles (P-Rb) for 5th most.

D Walker's the next Valpo at #17 scoring, 4.5 RPG (top 20), #11 3P% 37%.

T Walker makes #21 in HL scoring, 2nd highest freshman.

Vashil 6.0 RPG #7, #2 ORPG, 2.9 BPG #1 by a huge margin (next 1.7 BPG) (2.6 BPG in HL play, still first in league, but Mays with 2.3); games with 8, 6, and 6 blocks - for max of anyone in HL league,

[Valpofan00]

I would be fine with anyone winning it as long as it isn't sykes. I think he's so overrated he can only jump.

[agibson]

Here's a thought - E Victor for 6th man of the year.

I don't know if our PG injury situation is well enough known to make it happen.  But, it seems like a fitting tribute.

[vusupporter]

I would be shocked if E is eligible for 6th man, given he started nearly every league game.

[agibson]

I would be shocked if E is eligible for 6th man, given he started nearly every league game.

Are there rules about these things?  A little unorthodox, admittedly, but it seems very fitting.

[valpo4life]

For the record this is what I think will might see, not what I actually may want to see.

1st Team:

Sykes (POY)
Felder
Peters
Lewis
Grady

2nd Team:
Howard
Petros
Tiby
Mays
McWhorter

Freshmen:
Bass (FOY)
Tevonn
Hayes
Benzinger
Daniels

Defensive:
Vashil (DOY)
Williams
Fouse
McWhorter
Mays

Coach:
Bryce

I had a really tough time deciding between Grady and Howard for the last 1st team spot. But Grady being the leading rebounder in conference play gave him the edge. Would really like to see Tevonn get on the defensive team because he is an excellent defender but I'm not sure if he'll get that recognition or not. Another tough choice was the fifth freshman spot. I went Daniels because he was one of the top 3 point shooters in the league. That stands out more than anything Skara or Hogan have on their "resume".

[nkvu]

If there is no existing award to give E Victor then Valpo should create one and maybe name it after him. Here is a 6' 8" kid who after sitting out a year and undergoing two hip surgeries comes back and is asked to play out of his natural wing position by backing up the point guard. Then has to take over and start when the point gets hurt and can't play for several games in conference. Without E we finish middle of the pack. We don't win the conference and we don't host the tournament. He is my team MVP for this season regardless how it ends. Valpo should find some special way of acknowledging him.

[oklahomamick]

When does the HL announce the awards?

[talksalot]

Tomorrow.

[valpopal]

If there is no existing award to give E Victor then Valpo should create one and maybe name it after him. Here is a 6' 8" kid who after sitting out a year and undergoing two hip surgeries comes back and is asked to play out of his natural wing position by backing up the point guard. Then has to take over and start when the point gets hurt and can't play for several games in conference. Without E we finish middle of the pack. We don't win the conference and we don't host the tournament. He is my team MVP for this season regardless how it ends. Valpo should find some special way of acknowledging him.

I wish the Horizon League had an award to acknowledge an accomplishment like that displayed by E. Victor. Perhaps we should establish our own Valpo Fan Zone Awards. If one is permitted to "come back" from a redshirt year on the sideline in crutches, someone who worked hard rehabilitating to complete his journey on the road to recovery and was instrumental in the team winning a season championship, I certainly would recognize Nickerson as the Comeback Player of the Year:

[a3uge]

I have 0 confidence in the ability of voters to make the right decision, but I'm not even sure who I would take for some of these awards.

POTY

It's hard to compare a PF with two point guards. I'd look at their effectiveness in relation to the position they play - assist to turnover ratio would be far more important for a PG than a PF, and for Peters, I'd look more at his rebounding stats, etc. I also wouldn't ignore non-conference statistics. For whatever reason, Horizon League media seem to disregard anything that happens outside of the conference. If a team is terrible OOC and finish with a decent conference record, they're praised as a good story. There's little outrage over teams like Oakland that sell out the conference and drag down the league due to their 'scheduled losses'. Instead, everyone fawns over what a success the team is, despite not even being above .500 by the end of the year.

Peters finished with the highest PER since Norris Cole in 2011. If POY wasn't weighted towards conference games, he'd win hands down. Best player from the best overall team in the league. But given voters primarily just look at conference stats, it's a tough sell on Peters. The usage % is astronomically high for both Felder and Sykes, so it's tough for Peters to keep up with the counting stats. Carter going down really hurt Peters. Without a decent penetrator and distributor, Peters can't really showcase his bread and butter - his terrific shooting. He's not a player that's ever going to create shots off the dribble.


COTY

Bryce Drew. 'Nuff said.

DPOTY

There's no way Vashil shouldn't win this. Oakland fans are funny. They will bury themselves in stats (only counting stats) for players like Felder, and then shift to anecdotal and emotional evidence for players like Dante Williams. Is that what Williams we're actually talking about? Dante? or Jarod? Let's assume we're talking about Dante. The 'eye test' is for certain players, I guess. In the counting stats, Williams has 2.7 RPG 0.3 BPG 0.8 SPG. It would be another baffling decision by the voters if they gave this guy DPOTY. But wait, if you look at the conference stats, it has to get better, right? Still not good - 2.6 RPG 0.4 BPG 0.9 SPG. Okay, let's account per minute instead of looking at misleading per game numbers.

Conf per 40 numbers
Vashil
8.8 Reb 3.8 Blk 0.5 Stl

Williams
2.7 Reb 0.5 Blk 1.0 Stl

I'm sorry, but a forward only averaging 2.7 rebounds per 40 should not win defensive player of the year over a center averaging 3.8 blocks per 40.

Let's pour salt on the wound and look at some advanced conference stats.


      TReb% Blk% Stl% DWS Drtg
Vas 13.0     11.2  0.7    0.9   92.8
Wil   4.2      1.2   1.5     0.3  111.3

So when Vashil is on the court, the team's defense is remarkably better. A 92.8 defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) is crazy good. With all games included, he has a Drtg of 88.1. I think if Williams wins DPOTY it would be a complete joke.

[Valpo89]

With all the success the team has had - again - I'm surprised there hasn't been a thread regarding Bryce's future.
The vultures will be swarming like never before in an attempt to swoop him away. Will he again resist the lure of a bigger salary, better facilities and a stronger league to remain at home?
It could be an interesting April.

[agibson]

With all the success the team has had - again - I'm surprised there hasn't been a thread regarding Bryce's future.
The vultures will be swarming like never before in an attempt to swoop him away. Will he again resist the lure of a bigger salary, better facilities and a stronger league to remain at home?
It could be an interesting April.

I mostly don't like to think about it!  I'd just as soon save it until the games are done.

[wh]

I have 0 confidence in the ability of voters to make the right decision...

You mean because Wardle was named COY after his team won the league as predicted, when Bryce was slighted the previous year under identical circumstances?

By the way, does anyone know if the "worst HL announcer ever" from Milw gets to vote? 

[classof2014]

To me I would definitely put Peters over Sykes for POY. Sykes did have games where he disappeared and they were big games as well. I know he got hurt sometime in the return game to Valpo but he was flat out awful. During the final stretch I don't recall a poor game for Alec, he doesn't take bad shots, and always makes the right play. It's the extra pass that doesn't go in the stat sheet. He seems to make the big shot when need be, he made the shot that clinched the game Friday, very few players can step up like that. He got himself wide open and hit nothing but net in a crucial point of the game and sunk his one FT for the 4 point play.

Guys like Sykes and Felder are more flashy they're always on the court and always handling the board, that's their position. Alec had 4 double doubles in the last 6 games I believe, he's playing his best basketball of the season when it matters most and he doesn't shy away from the big moment. His stats aren't anywhere near as impressive as Sykes and Felder but he's much more complete than either of them.

Will Peters win PoY? I dunno. Teams have been able to shut down Sykes down the final stretch, Peters wasn't. His scoring did go down but his effect on the game certainly didn't.

[chef]

For those that don't have Grady on first team, consider this:  In league games, he's 6th in scoring, 1st in rebounding, 2nd in steals, 3rd in blocks and 5th in FG%.