NCAA Auto-Bid RPI & Seeding

[vu72]

Wyoming Wins!!!  You have GOT to love those brown and gold unis!!!  Inching closer to a for sure 12!!

Wyoming will be a very interesting case. A champion from a larger conference. The MWC is the #11 league, while the HL is #16.

Valpo: 3-1 vs. Top 100 (three games vs. Green Bay, Murray State)
Wyoming: 5-3 vs. Top 100, and all of those games are against teams in the top 42.

I have to think Wyoming will be higher than Valpo on the Seed List...unfortunately, I don't think this one helps us.

Well, up to this point you have based everything on RPI.  Ours is lower.

[ValpoHoops]

Wyoming Wins!!!  You have GOT to love those brown and gold unis!!!  Inching closer to a for sure 12!!

Wyoming will be a very interesting case. A champion from a larger conference. The MWC is the #11 league, while the HL is #16.

Valpo: 3-1 vs. Top 100 (three games vs. Green Bay, Murray State)
Wyoming: 5-3 vs. Top 100, and all of those games are against teams in the top 42.

I have to think Wyoming will be higher than Valpo on the Seed List...unfortunately, I don't think this one helps us.

Well, up to this point you have based everything on RPI.  Ours is lower.

That's why I keep saying "if the Seed List was based strictly on RPI". If it was, we are certainly ahead of them, but I think they will get slotted higher than us.

I just chose to use RPI as my metric of choice because it's readily available, and rather than guess, I just sort by the numbers.

[agibson]

Wyoming Wins!!!  You have GOT to love those brown and gold unis!!!  Inching closer to a for sure 12!!

Wyoming will be a very interesting case. A champion from a larger conference. The MWC is the #11 league, while the HL is #16.

Valpo: 3-1 vs. Top 100 (three games vs. Green Bay, Murray State)
Wyoming: 5-3 vs. Top 100, and all of those games are against teams in the top 42.

I have to think Wyoming will be higher than Valpo on the Seed List...unfortunately, I don't think this one helps us.

Very interesting!  It probably also can't hurt us, unless something funny happens with the play-in games, maybe.

Wyoming seems to have topped out at a 72 RPI, way off our 50 RPI pace.  But, everyone's always said it's more about your _opponents'_ RPI.

They do have 5 RPI 100+ losses, to our 4.  (Though we have an extra 200+.)  Their SOS is, of course, considerably better.

23-9 record to our 25-5.

It's just so unfair to compare big conference teams to mid-majors, like this.  Yes, they have 5 RPI top-50 winds (and three losses).  But two of the wins are at home, and two are on a neutral court.  And they all come after January 1.  Our top-50 RPI games, if we had any, would be in November and December and on the road.

I don't know if they have "signature" wins, but those five top-50's are probably going to put them past us.

Not that Wyoming hurts us, per se, but it begins to feel to me that if we get a 12, it's going to be because of Bryce.  Either just name rec, or recognizing that we have a quality coach which might give us an edge in tournament games (here I'm assuming they've not thought _too_ hard about Bryce's record against the top-50, over his coaching years).  Or, maybe because somebody fills in the committee about our injury situation, and claims that we're going to be healthy in the tournament.    Not that it would have given us any signature, or top-50, wins.  But, if we were always healthy it might have burnished our record a bit...

But, mostly, I'm expecting a 13.

[ValpoHoops]

Automatic bid teams can not be placed into the play-in games unless they are the bottom four teams. The "Last Four In" are placed in Dayton, usually as 11-13 seeds, wherever they fall in the bracket.

We will not be playing in Dayton.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I count 18 we're ahead of--again, just based on your RPI numbers:

• Harvard
• Northeastern
• ND St
• Belmont
• Albany
• Lafayette
• Tx So
• Coastal Carolina
• UAB
• N Flo
• Manhattan
• Rob Morris
• Hampton
• Wyoming
• Big Sky winner
• WAC winner
• Big West winner
• Sun Belt winner

Plus, CMU could still pull it out over UB; and Sam Houston could make his last stand (at the Alamodome?).  That would help in case some (even they themselves) have a more attractive overall resumé.

IT COULD HAPPEN

[agibson]

Automatic bid teams can not be placed into the play-in games unless they are the bottom four teams. The "Last Four In" are placed in Dayton, usually as 11-13 seeds, wherever they fall in the bracket.

We will not be playing in Dayton.

Sure, we're not going to Dayton. 

Very interesting!  [I don't think this Wyoming win's going to help us...]  It probably also can't hurt us, unless something funny happens with the play-in games, maybe.

What I was considering is whether Wyoming's win might perhaps affect the play-in seeds in a way detrimental to us.  I'd been assuming a single 12-12 play-off game, leaving three 12 seeds open to bottom-filler automatic qualifiers.  Perhaps Wyoming could push a second pair of at-large teams to another 12-12 playoff, leaving just two 12 seeds for AQ's.

That may not be possible, either, given the accounting of bottom-fillers...

[vu72]

Hoops, I understand and agree that we won't really know till tomorrow.  The committee might be faced with a similar situation should SFA win tonight.  Let me explain:  Wyoming has an RPI of 80 versus our 51.  A difference of 29.  As you point out however, they play is a better conference--not WAY better but better.  In the same way, if SFA wins, their RPI will be about 35 versus our 51, a difference of only 16, and, we play in a WAY better conference.  They may have some issues...

[ValpoHoops]

What I was considering is whether Wyoming's win might perhaps affect the play-in seeds in a way detrimental to us.  I'd been assuming a single 12-12 play-off game, leaving three 12 seeds open to bottom-filler automatic qualifiers.  Perhaps Wyoming could push a second pair of at-large teams to another 12-12 playoff, leaving just two 12 seeds for AQ's.

This is one of the biggest areas that it seems many folks don't understand.

There are a finite number of spots in the tournament...and every "auto bid only" team fills the bottom of that list. A team stealing a bid DOESN'T knock teams down the seed list, it knocks a bubble team off of it.

Because of where we are, we count UP from the bottom trying to figure out our seed, rather than a team like Duke who counts down from the top. All Wyoming did is add another team to that mix and knock a bubble team to the NIT. For our purposes, just forget about the at large teams and where they get seeded...we just need to fall ahead of as many as possible.

[ValpoHoops]

Hoops, I understand and agree that we won't really know till tomorrow.  The committee might be faced with a similar situation should SFA win tonight.  Let me explain:  Wyoming has an RPI of 80 versus our 51.  A difference of 29.  As you point out however, they play is a better conference--not WAY better but better.  In the same way, if SFA wins, their RPI will be about 35 versus our 51, a difference of only 16, and, we play in a WAY better conference.  They may have some issues...

Exactly. Wyoming will probably end up moving up 10 spots or so in the RPI tonight...I'm basing solely on opinion that I think they will fall ahead of us...SFA will be close as well. I really think in the 12/13 area, its going to come down to geography quite a bit (especially given those three teams being from vastly different areas of the country). And, undoubtedly, there will be a 12 seed who plays a 5 seed they don't match up with well, while at the same time there is a 13 that really likes who they get.

[agibson]

Looks like Buffalo will pull it out.

But, if it's true that the committee cares more about your opponents' RPI than your own, Buffalo winning could be good for us.  Apart from their RPI (32 or better, buffered by losses to KY and WI), the head-to-head looks somewhat favorable for us.

Until tonight, against ~68 Central Michigan, their best win was 91 SD State, or home and away against 93 Kent State.

We definitely want SFA and Georgia State to lose!

[talksalot]

Jerry Palm just released his latest bracket... he has these 5-12-site matchups

Georgetown    Gets winner of PIG:  Mississippi / BYU   Jacksonville
Arkansas        Harvard      Portland
Louisville        Wofford      Jacksonville
Butler             Valpo         Seattle

[ValpoHoops]

Update following MAC title game.

Root for Sam Houston State and Montana tonight.

[agibson]

There are a finite number of spots in the tournament...and every "auto bid only" team fills the bottom of that list. A team stealing a bid DOESN'T knock teams down the seed list, it knocks a bubble team off of it.

Because of where we are, we count UP from the bottom trying to figure out our seed, rather than a team like Duke who counts down from the top. All Wyoming did is add another team to that mix and knock a bubble team to the NIT. For our purposes, just forget about the at large teams and where they get seeded...we just need to fall ahead of as many as possible.

Yeah, I was thinking there might be an exception around the at-large play-in games. But, on closer look, I think probably not.  I mean, they _are_ a little different.  They require two at-large teams, who may not be adjacent on the overall "seed list", naturally, to be put onto the same line.  Maybe there's a chance that it knocks one of the AQ's who would have gotten a 12 seed _up_ to the 11 seed. 

But, indeed, I don't think Wyoming can hurt us.

[historyman]

The comparison with SFA looks very grim.

SFA up by 12 with about 10 minutes to go.

Go SHST!

[ValpoHoops]

Last update for the evening. Apparently, its nice out and the idiot golfers want to remember how terrible they are at the game, so someone has to be there to get them range balls...

I will update tomorrow with fresh RPI numbers. The more I look at these and other numbers, the more I'm convinced that we will be a 13 seed.

[a3uge]

I think you guys are all assuming the selection process is logical, clear cut, and straight forward. A 12 will feel better, but it really depends on the opponent. Say UNC slides to a 5 and WSU gets a 4... At this point after WSU losing to Illinois State I think I'd rather play the Shockers.

A 12 seed can be justified over Wyoming, Wofford, SFA, and Harvard. Even Buffalo... their high RPI is a joke from their conference's insanely poor SOS, and their OOC RPI is inflated by loses to Wisconsin and Kentucky.

[valpotx]

Lunardi now has us as a 13 playing Baylor in Jville

[justducky]

A 12 seed can be justified over Wyoming, Wofford, SFA, and Harvard. Even Buffalo...

I think we somehow stay a 12.

Lunardi now has us as a 13 playing Baylor in Jville

If they set us up for a game with Baylor we will first have to beat our 5 and they will have to beat their 13.

[ValpoHoops]

Currently sitting above 17 teams that have already clinched in RPI. Sun Belt should provide an 18th, and UCONN could possibly be a 19th. If we are ahead of 18 teams on the final seed list, we would be a 12 if the bracket slotted in perfectly.

I still think Wyoming goes above us, and UCONN would as well with a win. Still thinking 13...but I hope I'm wrong.

[agibson]

I still think Wyoming goes above us, and UCONN would as well with a win. Still thinking 13...

Connecticut's an interesting case.  If you play a bunch of top 50's, how many should you win?  7-8 against the top 50, but only 8-12 against the top 100.

There'd be at least a case to keep them on the 13 line.

But, yeah.  Life's not fair. Probably they pass us.

Still, I'll root for them.

[agibson]

Turning on GA State, at first I assumed 21s left in the -first- half!

36-36!

[agibson]

Ron Hunter coaching against his son in the final.  Dad wins, but is injured in the celebration - helped off the floor!

[Kyle321n]

That was a great game but I don't know how Green Bay lost to Georgia St.

And the head coach for hurt in the celebration. That's crazy. He had to be helped off the court

[ValpoHoops]

Ron Hunter coaching against his son in the final.  Dad wins, but is injured in the celebration - helped off the floor!

Ron Hunter coaches his son. Does not coach against him.

[vu72]

Currently sitting above 17 teams that have already clinched in RPI. Sun Belt should provide an 18th, and UCONN could possibly be a 19th. If we are ahead of 18 teams on the final seed list, we would be a 12 if the bracket slotted in perfectly.

I still think Wyoming goes above us, and UCONN would as well with a win. Still thinking 13...but I hope I'm wrong.

Yes, they might move up past us but if they start doing that we may also move up past a coupe of teams with very similar RPIs but from conferences much worse than the Horizon, namely the Southern and Southland--Wofford and SFA.  Still should be a 12