NCAA Auto-Bid RPI & Seeding

[agibson]

This game won't matter. Either Gonzaga wins and BYU falls into the cesspool or bubble teams, or BYU wins and knocks a bubble team out of the tournament. The only games that matter are ones that could put a team behind us.

It took me a couple of minutes to convince myself of this this morning, but I'm with you.  All that matters for us is filling up the bottom.  We want weak teams to get in the tournament by winning upset auto-bids and floating us up.  Noting else matters.

[agibson]

CUSA tournament starts Wednesday, with everybody playing Thursday, Friday, Saturday.  Root for carnage basically.  Maybe UAB?  (Louisiana Tech's a plausible 12 seed; Old Dominion's on the edge of the bubble; even UTEP could compete with us for seeding if they win the tournament.)

Southland tournament starts Wednesday, but SFA plays Friday and Saturday.  Root for Stephen F. Austin (likely 12 seed) to lose.

Root for Yale over Harvard (plausible 12 seed - though Yale _might_ not be much better for us), Saturday March 14 at the Palestra.

Man. -Nobody- plays tomorrow, and SFA not until Friday?

[historyman]

and Robert Morris #187 takes out St. Francis 66-63

That was an interesting finish to the Robert Morris/St Francis game. St Francis was down 3 with seconds remaining and threw up a three to try and tie the game. The shooter was fouled on the three point attempt. The shooter then proceeded to miss all 3 FT attempts (the last FT on purpose) to give the game to Robert Morris. RMU got fouled and missed their FT attempt and gave SF-NY a desperation 3/4 court shot that bounced off the back of the rim.

Do you believe that player will be thinking of improving his FT % over the summer?

If he makes those FTs St Francis could have gone to OT with a chance of taking his team to their first NCAA tournament ever.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:12458044

[Just Sayin]

Valpo RPI:

From 59
To 53 after win last night.

[usc4valpo]

Sorry I gotta root for SFA.  They have a great, well coached team, and besides my wife went there! I think SFA will provide some damage in the tournament.

[talksalot]

Using the Sagarin's... and a pure "Top 4 are #1... 5-8 are #2...etc)  possible opponents and their Record and ranking...

9   Utah   22   7      
10   North Carolina   21   10   
11   Iowa State   22   8   
12   Oklahoma   21   9   
13   Notre Dame   26   5   
14   Baylor   22   8   
15   Louisville   24   7   
16   Ohio State   22   9   
17   Wichita State   27   4   
18   West Virginia   23   8   
19   Butler   22   9   
20   Michigan State   21   10   
21   Texas   19   12   
22   Georgetown   20   9   
23   Iowa   21   10   

a few interesting match-ups:

Notre Dame in Columbus
Oklahoma in Omaha
Texas in Louisville
Ohio State in Louisville
West Virginia ...out west...

[vu84v2]

I would love for Valpo to end up in Omaha with Kansas (of course, not playing Kansas). Would have to make the trip for that. I do not see Valpo being in Omaha, however, since Kansas and Wisconsin seem to be locks to go there. Neither of those teams will end up with a 12 or 13 seed in the same location.

Definitely some likelihood of drawing a Big 12 team, though it will not be Texas who will be lucky to make the play-in game. All would be tough matchups, but most could present the chance for a win.

-West Virginia is all about pressing defense and rebounding - they are the Big 12 equivalent of Cleveland State. They are the most uncomfortable team in the Big 12 to play against and watch...by far.
-Iowa State can be great if they hit their threes. They would be a team to give Kentucky some potential problems. Peters vs. Niang would be a great matchup as would Carter vs. Morris. Lots of firepower on Iowa State, but they can struggle with teams making a strong defensive effort.
-Baylor. This matchup would get the national storyline with Drew vs. Drew. Scott has done a tremendous job with this team. Gathers is an absolute beast inside and Valpo would have no one to matchup with him, but they also play good defense and have really good guards that can shoot and drive.
-Oklahoma may be the best overall team of this group, but oddly could be a better matchup for Valpo. If you can defend the two guards all game (Hield and Cousins), they don't have that great of an offensive game. Krueger is also a very good coach, but an Oklahoma - Valpo game would have the right tempo for Valpo and Valpo would not face a style or physical mismatch that could cause real problems.

Other teams that I think could be better matchups for Valpo: Butler, Georgetown, Wichita State. I do not think that Valpo would matchup well with North Carolina (too many athletes) or Notre Dame (too good offensive efficiency). Louisville seems like it could be a good matchup due to their problems, but still lots of talent and experience. And I think that Michigan State would shut down most of Valpo's options on offense and win like last time.

[classof2014]

No matter who we play we'll be the underdogs... obviously. Valpo's chances at winning a game or two is much higher than 2 years ago. I think we're a 12 but at worst a 13. I agree teams like Iowa St, Oklahoma, and West Virginia would be good draws for us, there's a possibility of an upset there.

To me though Butler would be our best draw. Not just because it'd be a great rivalry game but they're the worst of the group, in my opinion. They aren't overly athletic and we match up well with them. If we get Butler I give our chances of winning around 35-40% while the worst draw to me would be North Carolina 10-15% chance of winning.

[ValpoHoops]

Well, turns out I'm not a curse this year.

Four tickets punched last night, none of which should have a significant impact on our seeding.

Tonight, one more bid - from the Patriot League - that should have little effect on our spot. After this, nothing new until Saturday.


Teams to root against in conference tournaments:

MAC: Buffalo (30), Central Michigan (75), Toledo (77)
C-USA: Old Dominion (37), Louisiana Tech (52), UTEP (73)
Big West: UC-Davis (64)
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (44)
Mountain West: Colorado State (26), San Diego State (28), Boise State (40)
Sun Belt: Georgia State (70)

And, when in doubt, cheer for the team in the dark jersey.


Based on strictly RPI, if all tournaments ended with the highest SEEDED team (not necessarily the highest RPI team) winning, we would be the "best" 13 seed.

[agibson]

MAC: Buffalo (30), Central Michigan (75), Toledo (77)

Man, I forgot all about Buffalo.  And, now as I look more carefully, the whole MAC sort of smells like trouble! Four top-100 teams!  (Including Kent State.) 

Buffalo's RPI is inflated by losses at Kentucky and at Wisconsin.  And that top-50 RPI makes everybody who beat them in the MAC (6 losses in conference) look good.  Central Michigan, even, could compete with us in RPI if they win the tournament - probably Toledo and Kent State could too.

Makes me nervous.  And, indeed, Buffalo does better than Central Michigan, and better than us, on Bracketmatrix.  A real risk they could keep us down in the 13 line.

Best bet?  Hope for carnage starting Thursday in the MAC tournament (it's been chalk so far) and somebody like Akron winning out.  Realistically?  Maybe Kent State can knock off Buffalo, and then lose to Central Michigan.  Or, even more realistically, hope for Central Michigan over Buffalo (they've already beat them twice) on Saturday.

Buffalo would be 5-3 against RPI 51-100 if they won.  We're 3-1.  Similar numbers of bad losses.  Much too close for comfort, and I'd be afraid of the committee just going with RPI.  (Buffalo's ahead of us in the Sagarin too, though not by nearly as much as in the RPI).

Buffalo's not gotten any love in the national polls, or even in the mid-major coaches' poll.  But, an RPI of 27 would be awfully hard to ignore.

[vu72]

No matter who we play we'll be the underdogs... obviously. Valpo's chances at winning a game or two is much higher than 2 years ago. I think we're a 12 but at worst a 13. I agree teams like Iowa St, Oklahoma, and West Virginia would be good draws for us, there's a possibility of an upset there.

To me though Butler would be our best draw. Not just because it'd be a great rivalry game but they're the worst of the group, in my opinion. They aren't overly athletic and we match up well with them. If we get Butler I give our chances of winning around 35-40% while the worst draw to me would be North Carolina 10-15% chance of winning.

Agree on both counts.  I have watched Butler play a few times and they make very few mistakes but are not very athletic.  They play that slow down lock down defense which keeps game close both ways. Lunardi has us as a 12 playing North Carolina in Seattle.  Not good on many fronts.

Not to start a controversy, but I think this team is a fair amount better then our 12-13 team.  Let's call Rowdy and Alec a push.  Kevin would have a hard time not getting stuffed by this year's version of Vashil.  Let's also call Keith and Erik Buggs a push. I'd take Adekoye over Bobby C.  Then it's Boggs, Kenney, Dority and Bogan versus T. Walker, D. Walker, E. Victor and Max Joseph.  Oh yeah, I'll take David Skara over Jordan Coleman as well.

[SanityLost17]

MAC: Buffalo (30), Central Michigan (75), Toledo (77)

Man, I forgot all about Buffalo.  And, now as I look more carefully, the whole MAC sort of smells like trouble! Four top-100 teams!  (Including Kent State.) 

Buffalo's RPI is inflated by losses at Kentucky and at Wisconsin.  And that top-50 RPI makes everybody who beat them in the MAC (6 losses in conference) look good.  Central Michigan, even, could compete with us in RPI if they win the tournament - probably Toledo and Kent State could too.

Makes me nervous.  And, indeed, Buffalo does better than Central Michigan, and better than us, on Bracketmatrix.  A real risk they could keep us down in the 13 line.

Best bet?  Hope for carnage starting Thursday in the MAC tournament (it's been chalk so far) and somebody like Akron winning out.  Realistically?  Maybe Kent State can knock off Buffalo, and then lose to Central Michigan.  Or, even more realistically, hope for Central Michigan over Buffalo (they've already beat them twice) on Saturday.

Buffalo would be 5-3 against RPI 51-100 if they won.  We're 3-1.  Similar numbers of bad losses.  Much too close for comfort, and I'd be afraid of the committee just going with RPI.  (Buffalo's ahead of us in the Sagarin too, though not by nearly as much as in the RPI).

Buffalo's not gotten any love in the national polls, or even in the mid-major coaches' poll.  But, an RPI of 27 would be awfully hard to ignore.

Everyone should take a look at how the MAC scheduled their non-con as a whole this year.  We need to emulate it to the best of our ability. Every team in the conference has at least 6 loses in conference play, yet still have a bunch of teams with RPI's under 100.   Had 3 teams broke away from the pack and only had 2-3 loses a piece in conference, you could be looking 3 bid league.  As it is Buffalo could be this years VCU of 2011.  A team nobody thought would get an at large, but does.       

[justducky]

The definition of "gaming the system" from the American Quack College Dictionary 2015  Ducky Press -First Edition

Everyone should take a look at how the MAC scheduled their non-con as a whole this year.  We need to emulate it to the best of our ability. Every team in the conference has at least 6 loses in conference play, yet still have a bunch of teams with RPI's under 100.   Had 3 teams broke away from the pack and only had 2-3 loses a piece in conference, you could be looking 3 bid league.  As it is Buffalo could be this years VCU of 2011.  A team nobody thought would get an at large, but does.       

So your solution to a flawed system is to figure how to out game the master gamers. I would suggest that the master gamers are the cause of todays mid major scheduling nightmare and to join that movement will only make its ultimate solution more difficult. As I have said before it is time for some united thought and actions from all mid majors. The every man or conference for himself approach is doomed to failure with an eventual decline for all but a few.

[wh]

MAC: Buffalo (30), Central Michigan (75), Toledo (77)

Man, I forgot all about Buffalo.  And, now as I look more carefully, the whole MAC sort of smells like trouble! Four top-100 teams!  (Including Kent State.) 

Buffalo's RPI is inflated by losses at Kentucky and at Wisconsin.  And that top-50 RPI makes everybody who beat them in the MAC (6 losses in conference) look good.  Central Michigan, even, could compete with us in RPI if they win the tournament - probably Toledo and Kent State could too.

Makes me nervous.  And, indeed, Buffalo does better than Central Michigan, and better than us, on Bracketmatrix.  A real risk they could keep us down in the 13 line.

Best bet?  Hope for carnage starting Thursday in the MAC tournament (it's been chalk so far) and somebody like Akron winning out.  Realistically?  Maybe Kent State can knock off Buffalo, and then lose to Central Michigan.  Or, even more realistically, hope for Central Michigan over Buffalo (they've already beat them twice) on Saturday.

Buffalo would be 5-3 against RPI 51-100 if they won.  We're 3-1.  Similar numbers of bad losses.  Much too close for comfort, and I'd be afraid of the committee just going with RPI.  (Buffalo's ahead of us in the Sagarin too, though not by nearly as much as in the RPI).

Buffalo's not gotten any love in the national polls, or even in the mid-major coaches' poll.  But, an RPI of 27 would be awfully hard to ignore.

Everyone should take a look at how the MAC scheduled their non-con as a whole this year.  We need to emulate it to the best of our ability. Every team in the conference has at least 6 loses in conference play, yet still have a bunch of teams with RPI's under 100.   Had 3 teams broke away from the pack and only had 2-3 loses a piece in conference, you could be looking 3 bid league.  As it is Buffalo could be this years VCU of 2011.  A team nobody thought would get an at large, but does.       

I think the MAC has done a better job in 2 areas relative to your point:

1. The MAC is out recruiting the HL right now.  They don't have any outstanding teams like N. Iowa and Wichita State, but 2/3 of MAC teams have a winning record, opposed to 1/3 of HL teams.

2. The MAC is doing a better job of scheduling the best OOC opponents they think they can beat.  They didn't over schedule like Oakland or under schedule like Valpo and others.

Of the two areas, recruiting will always be more important than scheduling - by far.  Valpo is a good example.  We did a bad job of OOC scheduling, we played conference opponents that did a bad job of OOC scheduling, and we played conference opponents with losing records (all of which are theoretical RPI killers), yet we finished with an RPI of 53 because we won 25 of 30 D-1 games.  There is no substitute for winning, and that takes talent.   

[a3uge]

The MAC knew what it was doing for scheduling.

Buffalo "gamed the system" by getting blown out by Wisconsin and Kentucky, which actually significantly increased their RPI. Their best OOC win was a home win against SD State, whom had an RPI in the 90s. The rest of the games were filled with relatively easy games. It's the best schedule a mid-major can come up with, but difficult to actually get there. The rest of the MAC teams scheduled weaker OOC, but won a lot of games. Actually, there were SEVEN MAC teams with a worse OOC SOS than Valpo. But since each team's W/L record was high, their SOS actually increased overall during the conference season, meaning everyone's RPIs got a bit of a jump.

This graphic might help explain what's going on:



The Horizon actually had a better OOC RPI average than the MAC. But the MAC is 10 in overall RPI (ahead of even the MW). We're 16th (below the Ivy League and Big West). Check this out:



This explains a lot. They had really weak OOC opponents (literally the worst in all of college basketball), and we had really strong OOC opponents. They won a lot more games. Are the two conferences really THAT different talent-wise? Probably not as much as the numbers suggest. That SD State win by Buffalo was actually one of the best wins the MAC had. EMU beat 88 Michigan on the road (team that was playing terrible enough to lose to NJIT, so hold your horses). They only had 4 OOC wins in the top 100 (88, 93, 97, 98) with 12 teams. We had a better OOC win than anyone in the MAC (Murray State). Total, the HL had 6 top 100 OOC wins with 9 teams. So it's not like they're knocking off top teams and dominating.

[ValpoHoops]

One more ticket punched last night, in the Patriot League, where 4th-seeded Lafayette got the win.

No Championship games now until Saturday, but a lot of #1 seeds will get their tournaments under way today and tomorrow, so there could be a lot of movement.

[Kyle321n]

Teams from major conferences I'm rooting to pull off super unlikely upsets: TCU, Creighton or Marquette, Florida St., Penn St. or Minnesota, South Carolina or Tennessee, Colorado, the bottom 4 remaining seeds of the A10, and the bottom 3 remaining seeds of the AAC.  If all of them pull off their crazy upsets that would likely move us up 2 seed lines.

[covufan]

Teams from major conferences I'm rooting to pull off super unlikely upsets: TCU, Creighton or Marquette, Florida St., Penn St. or Minnesota, South Carolina or Tennessee, Colorado, the bottom 4 remaining seeds of the A10, and the bottom 3 remaining seeds of the AAC.  If all of them pull off their crazy upsets that would likely move us up 2 seed lines.

Not sure I follow.  Are you asking these teams to have an upset in their conference tournament first or second round, or are you rooting for these teams to actually win their conference tournament? 

If you're rooting for the latter (which I admire), you'll be done rooting before Saturday afternoon. 

Our best rooting chances are for SF Austin and La Tech to lose in their respective tournaments.  That would possibly moves us up one or two spots. 

[ValpoHoops]

Are you asking these teams to have an upset in their conference tournament first or second round, or are you rooting for these teams to actually win their conference tournament? 

He's just giving a best-case, perfect-world idea of what he would like to see happen if every single game went the way we would want. We all know it won't, but a guy can hope...

[Kyle321n]

Teams from major conferences I'm rooting to pull off super unlikely upsets: TCU, Creighton or Marquette, Florida St., Penn St. or Minnesota, South Carolina or Tennessee, Colorado, the bottom 4 remaining seeds of the A10, and the bottom 3 remaining seeds of the AAC.  If all of them pull off their crazy upsets that would likely move us up 2 seed lines.

Not sure I follow.  Are you asking these teams to have an upset in their conference tournament first or second round, or are you rooting for these teams to actually win their conference tournament? 

If you're rooting for the latter (which I admire), you'll be done rooting before Saturday afternoon. 

Our best rooting chances are for SF Austin and La Tech to lose in their respective tournaments.  That would possibly moves us up one or two spots. 

Oh it's a crazy pipe dream.  I also want to see the one bid leagues have upsets of 1 seeds so we continue to move up.

Granted if we want the best shot of making a little bit of a run a 12 seed would probably be best. That way we would play a 5 seed then the 4-13 winner. By the time you get to the sweet 16 there's a chance the 1 could have been beaten by an 8-9 so you could have another good match up.

If you end up at the 11 you'd most likely face a 3 in the second round and if you get the 10 seed you're up against a 2 which is no good for us.

[agibson]

Iona and Murray State have done us favors by losing, so far.

Buffalo's RPI is inflated by losses at Kentucky and at Wisconsin.  And that top-50 RPI makes everybody who beat them in the MAC (6 losses in conference) look good.  Central Michigan, even, could compete with us in RPI if they win the tournament - probably Toledo and Kent State could too.

Makes me nervous.  And, indeed, Buffalo does better than Central Michigan, and better than us, on Bracketmatrix.  A real risk they could keep us down in the 13 line.

Best bet?  Hope for carnage starting Thursday in the MAC tournament (it's been chalk so far) and somebody like Akron winning out.  Realistically?  Maybe Kent State can knock off Buffalo, and then lose to Central Michigan.  Or, even more realistically, hope for Central Michigan over Buffalo (they've already beat them twice) on Saturday.

I guess we'll call Akron over Kent State a success.  It gets rid of Kent, Akron's not going to pass us in RPI, and Akron's already beat Buffalo once this year.

Even if our RPI is up to 52, it'd sure be nice for Akron to win out.  Or, barring that, we'd like Buffalo to at least lose (to Akron, or to Central Michigan or Toledo).

CUSA tournament starts Wednesday, with everybody playing Thursday, Friday, Saturday.  Root for carnage basically.  Maybe UAB?  (Louisiana Tech's a plausible 12 seed; Old Dominion's on the edge of the bubble; even UTEP could compete with us for seeding if they win the tournament.)

Old Dominion losing to the boys from Murfreesboro is good.  It probably knocks out their at-large hopes (doesn't much affect us one way or the other), and gets them out of the competition for the at-large, giving a better shot to one of the lesser teams.

Rice must have come on strong in the second half, to finish within six of LA Tech.

We could maybe survive a UTEP win, but it'd be uncomfortably close.  UAB seems to have barely survived Western Kentucky, but it'd be really good if they could somehow win two more.

So far Davis and Georgia State have come out consistently below us on brackets.  But, their RPI's will get a boost if they win their tourneys... So:

How about the Big West?  Looks like Davis could still compete with us on RPI.  We'd just as soon they lose today, to Hawaii, on ESPNU, 8:30 PM.  (I notice they re-seed their tournament, not so good for RPI...).  Or they could lose Saturday on ESPN2.

In the Sun Belt, it looks like Georgia State, also, can compete on RPI.  We'd like them to lose Saturday, or Sunday in the final.

So, overall, here's what I see.

We'd sure take MTSU continuing their run, and knocking off UTEP (could compete for 12 seed) at 3:00 PM Friday on CBSSN. 

We'd like SFA (likely 12 seed) to lose Friday at 5 PM, ESPN3.  Or Saturday 8:30 PM ESPN2.

We'd love UAB to knock off LA Tech (plausible 12 seed) Friday at 5:30 PM, CBSSN.

We'd like Buffalo (likely 12 seed) to lose Friday at 8 PM to Akron, and preferably for Akron to win Saturday as well, on ESPN2.

We'd like Georgia State (possible competition on RPI) to lose Saturday at noon on ESPN3.  Or Sunday in he final.

We'd like Harvard (plausible 12, with historic appeal) to lose to Yale, I think, at 3 PM, Saturday, ESPN3.  But, either one could be trouble.

And, as mentioned, the Southland, MAC, and Big West finals are Saturday as well.  And the Sun Belt final Sunday.

It seems like the Horizon, Southland, Southern, CUSA, Ivy, and MAC, Big West, and Sun Belt, are competing for three 12 seeds...

Probably we ought to be looking more at selection team sheets, and head-to-head comparisons.  But, we can still get some help from most of these conferences.

Could we even fall to a low 13?  Or even in discussion for a 14?  The RPI's could certainly tighten up, if the top RPI teams win their tourneys...

Overall: we still feel like a 13 to me.  But, I've not looked much at head-to-head comparisons.

[ValpoHoops]

No table update today. But, not a lot of RPI movement last night.

Today, EVERY SINGLE #1 SEED THAT REMAINS PLAYS. All of them.

So, quite possibly a lot of movement for tomorrow.

[Kyle321n]

Today, EVERY SINGLE #1 SEED THAT REMAINS PLAYS. All of them.

I'm not looking to far into it, but I'm going to go ahead and root for all of them to lose.

[agibson]

MTSU is through!  UTEP is down, and we have two more chances to knock off LA Tech.

[agibson]

Today, EVERY SINGLE #1 SEED THAT REMAINS PLAYS. All of them

Except GA State?