NCAA Auto-Bid RPI & Seeding

ValpoHoops · March 13, 2015, 07:35:37 PM

Quote from: agibson on March 13, 2015, 07:22:34 PM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 13, 2015, 03:30:51 PM
Today, EVERY SINGLE #1 SEED THAT REMAINS PLAYS. All of them

Except GA State?

Ah, you got me. I have the wrong dates for their semi and final on my spreadsheet.

"All #1 SEEDS PLAY TODAY (or possibly tomorroe)"

agibson · March 13, 2015, 07:37:46 PM

Quote from: agibson on March 13, 2015, 06:00:20 PM
MTSU is through! UTEP is down, and we have two more chances to knock off LA Tech.

UAB led by as much as 14. But, it's going to overtime.

drewsaders11 · March 13, 2015, 07:57:46 PM

UTEP and Louisiana Tech both lose!!! C-USA Final is UAB (RPI 139) vs Middle Tennessee (RPI 128), both teams with 15 losses. Big help!

drewsaders11 · March 13, 2015, 07:58:37 PM

RPIs according to RPIforecast.com

agibson · March 13, 2015, 08:02:27 PM

Lost by ten, with a huge foul differential. Practically an Oakland scenario.

I'd not noticed the tournament was being played in Birminghham, hone of the 4th seed UAB.

Tough way for LA Tech to go out, but good for us.

wh · March 13, 2015, 08:19:58 PM

Conference USA: 14 team, 1 bid league

MAC: 12 team, 1 bid league (probably) and always historically

12 and 14 team mid major conferences may work for football, but terrible for basketball.

justducky · March 13, 2015, 09:34:39 PM

Somebody help me with my memory.

2010-11 Butler as national runner up has lost at YSU, at VU, at WSU and home and away to UWM. The HL is ranked as the 8th or 9th best conference ahead of the MVC. I do not remember their OOC losses or overall record but had they lost the HL championship game were they viewed as an at-large lock? I seem to recall their RPI being between 38-45. Were they an 8 or 9 seed? Could we have been a 2 bid league that year?

Kyle321n · March 13, 2015, 11:52:04 PM

Alright everyone, we have a major conference team to root for: Auburn. 13 seed in the SEC and 100+ RPI

wh · March 13, 2015, 11:58:39 PM

Why?

a3uge · March 14, 2015, 12:08:28 AM

I'm also rooting for peace in the middle east, congress to get along, and someone to leave a briefcase full of $100,000 in front of my apartment.

LaPorteAveApostle · March 14, 2015, 08:02:15 AM

"Lamar was a two-time state yelling champion, who had dreams of someday finding a box of money."

agibson · March 14, 2015, 08:54:10 AM

Quote from: Kyle321n on March 13, 2015, 11:52:04 PM
Alright everyone, we have a major conference team to root for: Auburn. 13 seed in the SEC and 100+ RPI

Maybe. But, against KY? To whom they lost (ok - on the road) by 35?

It does look like their RPI would remain uncompetitive, but they'd be 4-4 against the top 50, and talk about a quality win. There would be fireworks , for sure. But, it'd be pretty hard to put them on the 13 line.

agibson · March 14, 2015, 09:09:55 AM

Quote from: agibson on March 13, 2015, 08:02:27 PM

And four of those are still playing (buffalo/central mich, Harvard/Yale, GA State, SFA).

Nice to be solidly in a 12 seed on Bracketmatrix at the moment. Hopefully it lasts.

I'm not excited about the head-to-head against any of Buffalo, Central Michigan, Harvard, or Yale.

In the MAC, do we prefer the team with the elite-level RPI? Or the team with three top-50 wins?

I think the 12 seed is going to be a tough call. Paul Oren seems to think LA Tech losing was enough, but I think it's going to be far from clear during the Selection Show.

ValpoHoops · March 14, 2015, 10:54:18 AM

A small update to the spreadsheet today. I will update a few times throughout the day as bids are clinched and semi-final games are played.

I think this should help clear up some of the rooting interest thoughts.

Interesting tidbit from the SWAC: There will be a title game played Saturday night but Texas Southern has already clinched the automatic bid because both teams from the other semi-final (Alabama State and Southern) are ineligible for post-season play. So, the Texas Southern/Prairie View semi-final was the de facto title game.

Top Seeds to lose Friday: Louisiana Tech (CUSA), Virginia (ACC), NC Central (MEAC), Montana (Big Sky), UC-Davis (Big West).

Note 1: Teams remaining is simply sorted by seed, not by RPI.
Note 2: All times listed are CENTRAL

talksalot · March 14, 2015, 11:26:01 AM

Oakland get's a home game in the post-season...
and
Cleveland State accepts a road game in the CIT... last year they lost at Ohio 64-62 in the opening round of the CIT.

crusadermoe · March 14, 2015, 11:34:41 AM

Looks like cheer against Purdue, Rhode Island, and U Conn. Those would be bad surprises and big upsets. Right?

Otherwise it seems pretty like we are slotted for better or for worse.

Am I reading this right? Seems unlikely any of the 3 teams above win.

ValpoHoops · March 14, 2015, 11:44:51 AM

Quote from: crusadermoe on March 14, 2015, 11:34:41 AM
Looks like cheer against Purdue, Rhode Island, and U Conn. Those would be bad surprises and big upsets. Right?

Otherwise it seems pretty like we are slotted for better or for worse.

Am I reading this right? Seems unlikely any of the 3 teams above win.

Wrong. Those games actually shouldn't affect us a lot. If the teams you listed win, their respective RPI's will likely be ahead of ours, and the other teams in their leagues are ahead of us to begin with, thus their auto-bid team will slot in ahead of us on the seed list.

Bubble teams DO NOT AFFECT our seeding...they are not part of the "bracket fillers" that fill in the bottom of the seed list. We need as many teams to be in the "bracket fillers" group as possible...which will put more teams below us. We are not in competition for seeding with bubble teams.

We need to root for teams like Wyoming, Montana, Sam Houston State, Auburn and anyone from the Sun Belt not named Georgia State.

FWalum · March 14, 2015, 11:57:54 AM

Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 14, 2015, 11:44:51 AMWe need to root for teams like Wyoming, Montana, Sam Houston State, Auburn and anyone from the Sun Belt not named Georgia State.

Don't really think you can root for Auburn either. If they would somehow win the tournament it would be hard to place them as a 13 seed or lower.

ValpoHoops · March 14, 2015, 12:10:53 PM

Quote from: FWalum on March 14, 2015, 11:57:54 AM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on March 14, 2015, 11:44:51 AMWe need to root for teams like Wyoming, Montana, Sam Houston State, Auburn and anyone from the Sun Belt not named Georgia State.
Don't really think you can root for Auburn either. If they would somehow win the tournament it would be hard to place them as a 13 seed or lower.

In 2008, Georgia finished with a 17-16 record after winning the SEC Tournament. You may recall that they had to win two games on Sunday after a tornado hit the Georgia Dome late Saturday night. They were given a 14 seed.

Auburn would be 17-19, and would have a similar SEC record (4-14, UGA in 2008 was 4-12). I believe they would be seeded similarly.

I also believe it won't matter because Kentucky isn't going to lose to Auburn.

frontrowfan · March 14, 2015, 12:18:48 PM

agreed. but glad to see that Auburn drew blood first as it will likely be their last blow against Kentucky today. Noticed CBC sports still has us a 12 but now against Butler...entirely beatable.

ValpoHoops · March 14, 2015, 05:10:06 PM

Update following the Ivy final. Still looking like we will be straddling the 12/13 line. If the seed list was based strictly on RPI, we would need to "beat" 18 teams to be a 12, and right now, we are ahead of 13 teams that have clinched, with a couple more to fall in behind as well.

agibson · March 14, 2015, 05:20:33 PM

Harvard it is. Of course, past years' successes aren't supposed to count for anything.

Looks like they're just a touch behind us in RPI (52 Warren Nolan to our 50).

4-1 against RPI 51-100 (Yale 65 x2 , Massachusetts 81, Northeastern 86) to our 3-1 (Green Bay 55x2, Murray State 64). A loss against Virginia to boost their RPI. 20-7 D1 with a 137 SOS. To our 25-5 with 223 SOS. They have more losses 101-200 (4 to our 2), we have an extra 200+ loss.

Going to be close.

agibson · March 14, 2015, 06:44:29 PM

The comparison with SFA looks very grim. We definitely would like them to lose. They have a sparkling 35 RPI, only a single 200+ loss, and their _only_ other losses are to the top-50. They have our same three 50-100 wins (Sam Houston x2, Memphis) and would add a fourth. They have three top-50 losses to pad their RPI. 187 SOS to our 223.

It's hard to see how we'd be seeded ahead of them.

The comparison with Wofford looks somewhat better. Depending on your perspective. RPI 47, SOS 203 to our 50 and 223. Four losses to RPI 51+, compared to our 5. But, looking in more detail, it doesn't look great. They have a win at NC State (RPI 40) - for some that will put them over the top. And a win against 51 Iona. A win at Sam Houston State (top-100) and losses at top-100 William and Mary and Stanford. Losses at top-50 Duke and WV to pad their RPI.

Call it a toss-up against Harvard, probably give a slight edge to Wofford, and we lose to SFA. Competing for three #12 seeds.

It'd also be interesting to compare to Central Michigan and Buffalo (or the winner) and Georgia State.

vu72 · March 14, 2015, 07:04:00 PM

Wyoming Wins!!! You have GOT to love those brown and gold unis!!! Inching closer to a for sure 12!!

ValpoHoops · March 14, 2015, 07:22:43 PM

Quote from: vu72 on March 14, 2015, 07:04:00 PM
Wyoming Wins!!! You have GOT to love those brown and gold unis!!! Inching closer to a for sure 12!!

Wyoming will be a very interesting case. A champion from a larger conference. The MWC is the #11 league, while the HL is #16.

Valpo: 3-1 vs. Top 100 (three games vs. Green Bay, Murray State)
Wyoming: 5-3 vs. Top 100, and all of those games are against teams in the top 42.

I have to think Wyoming will be higher than Valpo on the Seed List...unfortunately, I don't think this one helps us.