Selection Sunday Discussion 2015

[historyman]

Here are the sights that Valpo could play at for the NCAA tournament and their distance from VU by car:


March 19 and 21

Jacksonville Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida (Host: Jacksonville University)  1,029 miles

KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, Kentucky (Host: University of Louisville) 264 miles

Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (Host: Duquesne University) 421 miles

Moda Center, Portland, Oregon (Host: University of Oregon) 2,156 miles


March 20 and 22

Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, North Carolina (Host: University of North Carolina at Charlotte) 691 miles

Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio (Host: Ohio State University) 269 miles

CenturyLink Center Omaha, Omaha, Nebraska (Host: Creighton University) 504 miles

Key Arena, Seattle, Washington (Host: University of Washington) 2,123 miles


Where do you want Valpo to play in the NCAA tournament?

[valpotx]

Whichever is closest to DFW!  I haven't ever been able to attend an NCAA game, as when we were making the tourney while I was in school, I was always playing baseball.  I want to make my first trip this year!

[historyman]

Whichever is closest to DFW!  I haven't ever been able to attend an NCAA game, as when we were making the tourney while I was in school, I was always playing baseball.  I want to make my first trip this year!

Omaha = 650 miles from DFW Airport

Louisville = 857 miles from DFW Airport

[usc4valpo]

Omaha

[valpo04]

I've added a poll to this thread for visibility. For those interested in the Valpo Fan Zone tourney pick'em that we run each year, which hosting site do people prefer? We have an existing group on CBS but I am open to whatever works for most.

[talksalot]

I have no opinion... I'm in pools on both Yahoo and CBS.... and have managed to come in dead last in all of them!  (Gotta quit picking teams alphabetically!)

[crusaderjoe]

As for location, I'm selfishly voting for Jacksonville.  That's the only location where I could catch a game and drive up and down in less than 24 hours.

[classof2014]

For selfish reasons... Omaha.

[vu84v2]

Would love Omaha (with Kansas, but, of course, not playing Kansas). However, Omaha won't happen because they will put Wisconsin there and and thus the math won't work for any 12 or 13 seed to be there.

[a3uge]

Butler in Louisville. Its just going to happen.

[vu84v2]

I would like a matchup with Butler, but you would need Butler to be a 5 seed which would mean that they would have to get to the final of the Big East. They could even get to a 4 seed if they won the Big East, but that will be a tough tourney to get at least two wins. Then, you would probably need Valpo to reach a 12 seed which probably requires losses by SFA or La Tech. The probability of those events lining up seem pretty low, so I do not see a Butler matchup in a first round.

[a3uge]

I would like a matchup with Butler, but you would need Butler to be a 5 seed which would mean that they would have to get to the final of the Big East. They could even get to a 4 seed if they won the Big East, but that will be a tough tourney to get at least two wins. Then, you would probably need Valpo to reach a 12 seed which probably requires losses by SFA or La Tech. The probability of those events lining up seem pretty low, so I do not see a Butler matchup in a first round.

They could easily flex both teams up or down geographicaly. Wofford, LA Tech, or SFA could easily be 13 seeds. Seeding isn't in direct order of RPI. It's close, but it's not. Teams are flexed up and down to make everything fit properly. Due to their geographic proximity and great storyline, its a good possibility, or at least, not any lower probability than other projected 4-6 seeds now.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Here are the sights that Valpo could play at

you are a site to behold

[agibson]

They could easily flex both teams up or down geographicaly. Wofford, LA Tech, or SFA could easily be 13 seeds. Seeding isn't in direct order of RPI. It's close, but it's not. Teams are flexed up and down to make everything fit properly.

It's clear geography's been a factor lately.  Do we know what the rules actually are?  I'm sure they're willing to move teams around within a seed for geographical convenience.  And, I can imagine they'll move teams up or down a spot if they would otherwise _break_ _rules_.  But, I assume "don't drive too far to get to the game" is not some kind of ironclad rule for all seeds.  Do they really move teams up or down a whole seed to put them at a nearer site?

[agibson]

As for location, I'm selfishly voting for Jacksonville.  That's the only location where I could catch a game and drive up and down in less than 24 hours.

If we won a game, I'd be _really_  tempted to make it to a Saturday second round.  _Maybe_ if it was a late game on Friday for the first round.  In those circumstances I guess Columbus or Louisville would be the thing.

But, it's hard to imagine it working out given family and work commitments. Alas. 

The Michigan State was actually _during_ a lab I was teaching, even if the game was mostly decided by the time lab started.  We did broadcast it on the big projector during lab, at least...

[Kyle321n]

We shouldn't have to worry about drawing a 3 seed and it'd be a pipe dream to think we'd be facing a 6 seed, but I definitely think that's the range of teams we should start scouting in the 4-13 or 5-12 match up.  According to Bracket Matrix here's the list of teams we have a chance of facing.

Chance of facing is on a -10 (Very Unlikely) to +10 (This will happen) scale.

Maryland
Best Player: Melo Trimble and Dez White
Potential Spread: +5 (32% chance of winning)
Chance of facing: -8
They make any noise in the B1G tourney and they could be a 2 seed. Very likely a 3 seen and would have to lose badly to fall to the 4 line

Iowa State
Best Player: Georges Niang
Potential Spread: +8 (22% chance of winning
Chance of facing: -4
This is a really good team who is slipping a little. Root for them to win a game or 2 in the Big 12 because you don't want to see them on the 4 line.

Oklahoma
Best Player: Buddy Hield
Potential Spread: +8 (22% chance of winning)
Chance of facing: -4
Again this is another Big 12 team I don't want to face. I'm hoping the previous two teams make the quarters in their conference and get low 3 or high 4 seeds and we don't face them.

Baylor
Best Player: Taurean Prince and Rico Gathers
Potential Spread: +8 (22% chance of winning)
Chance of facing: +3
While having brothers face each other could be fun, let's root for Baylor to also get 4 seed (with us at a 12) and get this as the second round match. We don't match up well against them.

Notre Dame
Best Player: Zach Auguste and Jerian Grant
Potential Spread: +9 (19% chance of winning)
Chance of facing: 0
There's the chance the committee gets cute and put this game in Seattle or something so you can have the Lutheran Miracle Part Duex. Despite the highest spread so far, I wouldn't mind this game.

Louisville
Best Player: I'm not thinking about Louisville
Potential Spread: We're not talking about it. (+9, 22%)
Chance of facing: Seriously stop. Louisville is a potential final 4 team and they won't do that to us two times in a row. This is a 4 seed but we won't get them.

Northern Iowa
Best Player: Seth Tuttle (KPom's #4 for PoY)
Potential Spread: +8 (22% chance of winning)
Chance of facing: -9
I'm going out on a limb and saying UNI is getting a 3 seed from winning the MVC.

North Carolina
Best Player: Their Starting 5.
Potential Spread: -9 (20% chance of winning)
Chance of facing: +5
The NCAA are bastards who love putting us up against all time great coaches. This wouldn't surprise me if we land in the 13 spot.

West Virginia
Best Player: Juwan Staten (currently injured, should be back for Big 12 tourney)
Potential Spread: +6 (28% chance of winning)
Chance of facing: +6
Is the Big 12 just one big 4 seed? This is one of the teams I can see us getting in a 12-5 match up and it would give us a chance to pull an upset.

Utah
Best Player: Delon Wright (5th in KPom's PoY)
Potential Spread: +9 (21% chance of winning)
Chance of facing: 0
I'm putting this at a 0 only because I think they make a run in the Pac 12 tourney which will move them up to a 3 or 4 seed. How many of those do I have now?

Wichita State
Best Player: Fred Van Vleet
Potential Spread: +7
Chance of facing: +6 (27% chance of winning)
Here's the only reason I think they won't give us the Shockers: We're both mid-majors. We're on the right trajectory to face each other, but I just don't see them putting us against a mid-major.

Georgetown
Best Player: D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera
Potential Spread: +6 (28% chance of winning)
Chance of facing: -5
I think they are going to fall on their face in the Big East tourney. I honestly believe the Hoyas will fall to a 6 seed. We'd have to get crazy lucky to get up to an 11 and if they are a 5 I think they will be the lowest 5 and face a play in winner.

Arkansas
Best Player: Bobby Portis
Potential Spread: +5 (31% chance of winning)
Chance of facing: -7
This is a 6 seed. Everything about their resume says 6 seed. If they win the SEC tourney, then they might move up to a 5, but c'mon, Kentucky isn't losing that crapfest. (KPom gives Kentucky a 76.4% chance to win the SEC)

Butler
Best Player: Kellen Dunham
Potential Spread: +8 (28% chance of winning)
Chance of facing:-10
We all want it too bad. It's not happening. Sorry Ron_Paul.gif but it's just not.

Southern Methodist
Best Player: Yanick Moreira
Potential Spread: +5 (32% chance of winning)
Chance of facing: -7
Again very unlikely as they are a 6 or 7 seed.

Providence
Best Player: Kris Dunn
Potential Spread:
Chance of facing:-5
There's a chance they win the Big East and face us? I see them reaching the finals, losing and getting a low 5.

[talksalot]

Jerry Palm has us in Portland in the 12-5 game against Providence.... winner advancing to the West Virginia / UC Davis winner.
CBS's bracket has us in Jacksonville playing UNC in the 12-5 game... winner advancing to Baylor/LaTech winner

[vu84v2]

Love the comment about the Big 12 being on giant 4 seed. Incredibly deep conference, but no real outstanding teams. These teams have been beating the tar out of each other for two months (AFH really won the conference). One thought is that the Big 12 teams you list that lose tomorrow go to the 5 line and the ones that win tomorrow go to the 4. Iowa State or Oklahoma as conference tourney champ goes to a 3. Thus, there is a very good chance of drawing a Big 12 team.

West Virginia?  I can see your comment about them being more ripe for an upset, but their style of play could make it very difficult for Valpo to reach 50 points. Regardless, I hope that Scott and Baylor crush them tomorrow.

And I agree that Valpo does not want to get matched up with Louisville. The committee cannot do that to Valpo again.

[Kyle321n]

Love the comment about the Big 12 being on giant 4 seed. Incredibly deep conference, but no real outstanding teams. These teams have been beating the tar out of each other for two months (AFH really won the conference). One thought is that the Big 12 teams you list that lose tomorrow go to the 5 line and the ones that win tomorrow go to the 4. Iowa State or Oklahoma as conference tourney champ goes to a 3. Thus, there is a very good chance of drawing a Big 12 team.

West Virginia?  I can see your comment about them being more ripe for an upset, but their style of play could make it very difficult for Valpo to reach 50 points. Regardless, I hope that Scott and Baylor crush them tomorrow.

And I agree that Valpo does not want to get matched up with Louisville. The committee cannot do that to Valpo again.

Kansas is realistically winning the Big 12 and locking down a 1 seed. If they don't get a 1 or the highest 2 then the committee is drunk. They are a dominant team.

I don't want to go into a full breakdown of West Virginia, but they only have a good defense because they turn teams over. We've shown that we can break a press and keep turnovers low. West Virginia has one of the worst FG% defenses (ranked 300 overall). They also commit a TON of fouls. If they get into a closely called game, their defensive strategy goes down the drain and we can capitalize on them. Offensively, they could struggle to get to 60 on us. What happens when a poor shooting team runs into a good FG% defense? Bad things for the offense.

[vu84v2]

Kansas is not a #1 seed. Virginia, Duke, Kentucky and Villanova should all be ahead of them, even if they lose in their conference tourney. I am a huge Kansas fan, but Kansas has a few weakenesses that teams have been able to exploit.

I've seen West Virginia give Kansas trouble twice (so far).

[Kyle321n]

Kansas is the #2 team in RPI and has had the hardest SoS in the country. I agree with Wisconsin and Duke (if they win their conference tournament) and Kentucky is obviously the #1 overall seed, but Nova is unimpressive to me for a 1 seed. Their best road wins are against #23 Providence and #24 Butler where as Kansas beat #10 Baylor and #19 Georgetown. Kansas has had 6 true road games against KenPom top 25 teams where as Nova has had 2, both teams went .500 in those games. Kansas has had 14 games vs. KenPom top 25 teams while Nova had 4.

[vu84v2]

Forgot about Wisconsin. They are clearly ahead of Kansas as well and would be ahead of Villanova. Remember that Kansas, besides losing to K-State, also has the bad optics of huge losses to Kentucky and Temple. They will be a 2 seed and will be happy with it.

[talksalot]

Comparing Us to those other Low Teen Seeds... looking at the Mid-Major poll

1. Gonzaga (31) 30-2 775 2 West Coast
2. Northern Iowa 30-3 744 4 Missouri Valley
3. Wichita State 28-4 714 1 Missouri Valley
4. Stephen F. Austin 27-4 684 5 Southland
5. Murray State 27-5 681 3 Ohio Valley
6. BYU 24-8 616 6 West Coast
7. Valparaiso 27-5 556 7 Horizon
8. Wofford 27-6 528 8 Southern
9. UC Davis 24-5 519 10 Big West
10. Green Bay 24-7 471 11 Horizon
11. Harvard 21-7 433 9 Ivy League
12. Yale 22-9 432 12 Ivy League
13. Iona 26-7 404 16 Metro Atlantic
14. Buffalo 21-9 333 21 Mid-American
15. Saint Mary's 21-9 328 13 West Coast
16. Sam Houston State 24-7 291 15 Southland
17. Albany 23-8 229 17 America East
18. Eastern Washington 23-8 201 20 Big Sky
19. North Florida 23-11 141 22 Atlantic Sun
20. Central Michigan 22-7 140 18 Mid-American
21. Sacramento State 19-10 126 14 Big Sky
22. North Carolina Central 24-6 86 23 Mid-Eastern
23. Belmont 22-10 77 NR Ohio Valley
24. Kent State 21-10 75 NR Mid-American
25. Georgia State 22-9 71 NR Sun Belt

and the Mid-MajorPower 15
Rank School Last Week
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (30-2, 9 1st Place Votes) 1
2. Northern Iowa Panthers (30-3, 2 1st Place Votes) 3
3. Wichita State Shockers (28-4) 2
4. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (27-4) 6
5. Davidson Wildcats (23-6) 9
6. BYU Cougars (24-8) 7
7. Valparaiso Crusaders (27-5) 8
8. Old Dominion Monarchs (24-6) 15
9. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (24-7) 11
10. Iona Gaels (26-7) 12
11. Dayton Flyers (23-7) 5
12. Murray State Racers (27-5) 4
13. North Carolina Central Eagles (24-6) NR
14. Wofford Terriers (27-6) NR
15. UC Davis Aggies (24-5)  NR

Rank School Last Week
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (30-2, 9 1st Place Votes) 1
2. Northern Iowa Panthers (30-3, 2 1st Place Votes) 3
3. Wichita State Shockers (28-4) 2
4. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (27-4) 6
5. Davidson Wildcats (23-6) 9
6. BYU Cougars (24-8) 7
7. Valparaiso Crusaders (27-5) 8
8. Old Dominion Monarchs (24-6) 15
9. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (24-7) 11
10. Iona Gaels (26-7) 12
11. Dayton Flyers (23-7) 5
12. Murray State Racers (27-5) 4
13. North Carolina Central Eagles (24-6) NR
14. Wofford Terriers (27-6) NR
15. UC Davis Aggies (24-5)
NR

Rank School Last Week  also posted March 9:
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (30-2, 9 1st Place Votes) 1
2. Northern Iowa Panthers (30-3, 2 1st Place Votes) 3
3. Wichita State Shockers (28-4) 2
4. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (27-4) 6
5. Davidson Wildcats (23-6) 9
6. BYU Cougars (24-8) 7
7. Valparaiso Crusaders (27-5) 8
8. Old Dominion Monarchs (24-6) 15
9. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (24-7) 11
10. Iona Gaels (26-7) 12
11. Dayton Flyers (23-7) 5
12. Murray State Racers (27-5) 4
13. North Carolina Central Eagles (24-6) NR
14. Wofford Terriers (27-6) NR
15. UC Davis Aggies (24-5)  NR

Also Receiving Votes: Richmond, Harvard, VCU, Rhode Island, Green Bay, North Florida, New Mexico State, Illinois State, Buffalo, Albany, Georgia State

[talksalot]

and the SB Nation site has this post...2pm March 9... a few from our dust...

he CIT field for this year's 32 team tournament is beginning to take shape

Confirmed Participants

NJIT Highlanders (Host 3/16)
Oakland Golden Grizzlies (Host)
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash (Host 3/17)
UT Martin Skyhawks
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (Host 3/18)
Canisius Golden Griffins (Host 3/18)
Incarnate Word Cardinals
USC Upstate Spartans
Portland Pilots
Dartmouth Big Green
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
New Hampshire Wildcats
Eastern Illinois Panthers


Rumored Participants

Monmouth Hawks

[valpotx]

Good for NJIT!  For any of those on here that like to view the standings on ESPN for all conferences from time-to-time, they are the only Independent in NCAA D-1 men's basketball, and just a few years ago were winning 2-3 games/season.  Also neat to see Incarnate Word (San Antonio) playing in the postseason so early in their D-1 tenure.