Selection Sunday Discussion 2015

[wh]

Can one of our knowledgeable RPI/bracket  experts tell us what the Detroit loss cost us in RPI and potential seeding?  Would we have been a solid 12, or even possibly an 11?

[covufan]

Can one of our knowledgeable RPI/bracket  experts tell us what the Detroit loss cost us in RPI and potential seeding?  Would we have been a solid 12, or even possibly an 11?

I don't know the RPI hit for the Detroit loss, but I think the Missouri loss was worse for us - RPI-wise.

[a3uge]

Can one of our knowledgeable RPI/bracket  experts tell us what the Detroit loss cost us in RPI and potential seeding?  Would we have been a solid 12, or even possibly an 11?

5 RPI points. Not insanely critical since it was on the road. We also may have lost to CSU in a meaningless game anyways.

But Mighty Ducks, man, a quarter inch the other way, you would've missed completely! We were tied with Ball State (1 possession game) with 4 min left and down most of the game. Had we lost that, our RPI would be 72 and we'd be a projected 14 seed praying for a 13.

[covufan]

MarylandBest Player: Melo Trimble and Dez WhitePotential Spread: +5 (32% chance of winning)Chance of facing: -8 They make any noise in the B1G tourney and they could be a 2 seed. Very likely a 3 seen and would have to lose badly to fall to the 4 line

It is odd that Maryland, who is projected by bracketmatrix to be a 3 seed, is one of the teams we would have the highest chances of winning against.

My vote/hope is for Georgetown in Omaha or Wichita State in Columbus.

[ValpoHoops]

Can one of our knowledgeable RPI/bracket  experts tell us what the Detroit loss cost us in RPI and potential seeding?  Would we have been a solid 12, or even possibly an 11?

Keep in mind when thinking about questions like this one: the RPI is based solely on winning percentages. It doesn't matter WHO you win or lose to, just HOW MANY you win or lose.

Our RPI would be EXACTLY the same had we won at Detroit but had lost at Youngstown State. So, had we won against Detroit but lost to CSU our RPI would only be a tiny bit different because we played Cleveland State a third time and their win would have factored in to our Opponents Record.


So, to do the math:

RPI uses 25% of your winning percentage (against D1 opponents):

25-5 = .8333 x .25 = .2083
26-4 = .8667 x .25 = .2167

A difference of .0084

Using CBS Sports RPI numbers, we would move from 53 to 46.

Note: There would also be a TINY negative into our Opponents' Winning Percentage (RPI uses 50% of this number) due to Detroit losing an extra game and having one fewer win, but I didn't figure that in

[wh]

Thanks Hoops. Now, the second part of my question. If we were sitting with a 46 instead of a 53, might we be looking at a better seed or more favorable location or matchup? Just curious as to how that loss that we all kind of blew off as basically meaningless because we thereafter beat CSU might in fact have meaning now?  In my mind 7 RPI points is fairly significant when the differences between us and those we're competing against for seeding are very small.

[vusupporter]

Numerically, maybe it makes a slight difference.  Does improve our RPI, but doesn't give us any more quality wins.

Anecdotally - and granted, this is going down an opinion-driven wormhole - but if we beat Detroit, I don't think we win the league tournament.  Our performances the past couple weeks of the league slate hadn't been up to par, and I think our loss to Detroit really helped re-focus the team, especially on the defensive end of the court.  The kind of defense we played in the season finale at CSU and in the championship game hadn't been there the last few weeks, and there would be no impetus for that re-focus if we had survived versus Detroit.

[ValpoHoops]

Thanks Hoops. Now, the second part of my question. If we were sitting with a 46 instead of a 53, might we be looking at a better seed or more favorable location or matchup? Just curious as to how costly that loss that we all blew off as basically meaningless because we thereafter beat CSU might in fact have meaning now?

It's possible that it could slide us down a spot or two on the seed list, but I don't think we had any realistic chance at an 11 seed anyways. Perhaps we would have been most solidly feeling like a 12, but maybe not. We won't know for sure until we see how the bracket is put together on Sunday and see who the other 12's and 13's are.

[Kyle321n]

MarylandBest Player: Melo Trimble and Dez WhitePotential Spread: +5 (32% chance of winning)Chance of facing: -8 They make any noise in the B1G tourney and they could be a 2 seed. Very likely a 3 seen and would have to lose badly to fall to the 4 line

It is odd that Maryland, who is projected by bracketmatrix to be a 3 seed, is one of the teams we would have the highest chances of winning against.

My vote/hope is for Georgetown in Omaha or Wichita State in Columbus.

Someone more knowledgeable than me can probably explain it better, because I don't know how Massey's system works for that, but I would guess it's based on the success you had against teams with similar offensive and defensive profiles. I haven't looked to in depth at any of these teams, nor will I until we get something more set for seeding. Two years ago I watched every MSU loss and the games they played against teams who had similar offensive profiles to ours. It made me feel like we had a shot and it was clear we didn't from the tip.

[sliman]

If I'm interpreting ValpoHoops correctly, one less loss against anyone would have had basically the same benefit as not losing at Detroit since our two non-conference losses came against teams with records similar to Detroit's.  But, if the two non-conference losses were to teams whose opponents had better records or RPIs than Detroit's opponents, would a win in one of those games been more helpful than beating Detroit?

[ValpoHoops]

One less loss against anyone would have had the same effect. Who you beat means nothing.

If we had 20 wins against the "best" 20 teams on our schedule and 10 losses to the "worst", we would have the exact same RPI as if the 20 wins were against the "worst" teams.

It's solely based on winning percentage, not who you beat.

[a3uge]

If I'm interpreting ValpoHoops correctly, one less loss against anyone would have had basically the same benefit as not losing at Detroit since our two non-conference losses came against teams with records similar to Detroit's.  But, if the two non-conference losses were to teams whose opponents had better records or RPIs than Detroit's opponents, would a win in one of those games been more helpful than beating Detroit?

One less loss against anyone would have had the same effect. Who you beat means nothing.

If we had 20 wins against the "best" 20 teams on our schedule and 10 losses to the "worst", we would have the exact same RPI as if the 20 wins were against the "worst" teams.

It's solely based on winning percentage, not who you beat.

RPI isn't solely based on winning percentage. Home wins are only worth 0.6 of a win, while a road wins count for 1.4 of a win. It's why I can do this:

[ValpoHoops]

I know. That's why i specified "at" when using the YSU example. I'm going to write a short "RPI Tutorial" tomorrow. At this point, I'm trying to be simple and show the raw numbers. Too many people fall into the "good win for our RPI" trap. Baby steps...

[StlVUFan]

I want us in Columbus, and I'm not particular about the matchup.

I will be in Dayton for the First Four and am thinking I could easily drive there.

It sounds like I won't get my wish, but dammit, that's what I want.

[a3uge]

The bracket is forming! Wonder when they start filling it in - I want to try to catch them putting Valpo up.

[vu84v2]

They need to correct their bracket model before filling it in. The play-in games are wrongly formatted. I think this is in Indianapolis, a place where I would expect them to get this right.

[agibson]

Has anyone heard anything about a Selection Show watch party at VU?

It seems like they had an event for the Michigan State draw, but I've not heard anything.

[covufan]

I want us in Columbus, and I'm not particular about the matchup.

I will be in Dayton for the First Four and am thinking I could easily drive there.

It sounds like I won't get my wish, but dammit, that's what I want.

Pittsburgh and Louisville would be an easy drive from Dayton as well!

[valpopal]

Has anyone heard anything about a Selection Show watch party at VU?

It seems like they had an event for the Michigan State draw, but I've not heard anything.

I was told by an organizer at the Crusader Club pre-game pep rally that there would be a selection party on Sunday if Valpo won. However, nothing official has been released yet.

[a3uge]

They need to correct their bracket model before filling it in. The play-in games are wrongly formatted. I think this is in Indianapolis, a place where I would expect them to get this right.

They're not done with the left side.

[Kyle321n]

They need to correct their bracket model before filling it in. The play-in games are wrongly formatted. I think this is in Indianapolis, a place where I would expect them to get this right.

They're not done with the left side.

And my guess is they put the play ins below the bracket, not in it, since you have no idea where the play-ins will go in regard to the bracket.

[covufan]

Wonder when they start filling it in - I want to try to catch them putting Valpo up.

I would guess first daylight on Monday morning. 

[a3uge]

Oren wrote an article saying we're likely to go to x, y, z city:

http://m.nwitimes.com/blogs/sports/valparaiso-university/valparaiso-poised-to-take-flight/article_3da37c28-c88a-11e4-a688-b3d0fa866361.html

I think it's still a complete crapshoot to predict our city. Last year Michigan State was a 4 and played in Spokane. Some schools we think are 6 seeds will end up with 4 seeds and some 4 seeds may be 6 seeds. Wisconsin may get shipped to Spokane to avoid Kentucky (I know they don't snake but they won't do that). There could be a sweet 16 matchup setup like Louisville going down south and then playing in Indianapolis. I wouldn't assume we're not going to play in certain cities because you can trace a bracket that makes sense. The selection committee rarely makes sense.

[Valpofan00]

I really hope we play Providence... Anyone but Louisville ND or UNC.

[VULB#62]

I really hope we play Providence... Anyone but Louisville ND or UNC.

Me too. I am from New England and would love to see us beating them. Kinda like payback for URI knocking us out from the elite 8 back in you know when.