(13) Valpo vs. (4) Maryland NCAA 'Second' Rd Fri 3/20 4:40 PM EDT TNT

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Time to get down to brass tacks.

The Us
you should know the us by now or you're on the wrong board

The Not Us


SIBMIHHAT is "should i be mad if he hits a three?", of course.  courtesy mgoblog.  %Min is the percent of the team's minutes played, while %Poss is percent of possessions used.

further (http://mgoblog.com/content/preview-maryland-0#more):

Maryland's attack is highlighted by a couple of attacking guards. Melo Trimble has been one of the most impressive freshmen in the conference. A proficient outside shooter, Trimble gets most of his production attacking the basket—his free throw rate is over 72%, and he hits 87% of his freebies. Dez Wells, the team's lead guard, is a more selective—and more efficient—three-point shooter who also gets to the line frequently. Both are solid, not spectacular, at distributing the ball without turning it over.

Richaud Pack regained his starting role this month after briefly losing it to Jared Nickens. Like Trimble and Wells, Pack gets to the line often; unlike those two, he doesn't do much else to get the offense going, shooting 33% on both twos and threes in Big Ten play. Nickens, who rotates into the lineup frequently, is almost exclusively a three-point shooter—he hits 40% of his attempts from beyond the arc.

Stretch four Jake Layman is the third option, and a quality one at that. As you can see, he's an effective scorer from pretty much anywhere:



Layman is also a very good defensive rebounder and decent shot-blocker. He'll see a good number of his minutes at center, where Damonte Dodd—a more traditional five—starts but plays reserve-level minutes.

The team's most-utilized reserve is a familiar face: Evan Smotrycz, the former Wolverine. His game hasn't changed much, and he's really struggling from the field this season—he's shot 38% from two and 26% from three in B1G play.

[drewsaders11]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25109293/ncaa-tournament-odds-and-lines-for-the-first-four-round-of-64

Vegas Insider has Maryland as 4.5 point favorites, the second closest spread at the 12 seed line and lower (Buffalo-WVU interestingly the only closer, at 4).  Not bad!

[agibson]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25109293/ncaa-tournament-odds-and-lines-for-the-first-four-round-of-64

Vegas Insider has Maryland as 4.5 point favorites, the second closest spread at the 12 seed line and lower (Buffalo-WVU interestingly the only closer, at 4).  Not bad!

Not bad!

Realtimerpi's computer predictor actually makes us two point _favorites_.  That may be based on the erroneous assumption that we're 7-0 (actually we're 5-0) on neutral courts, while Maryland's only 3-1.

But, hey.  They've lost on a neutral court.  They've lost to teams with RPI's worse than ours.  We can do this.

[historyman]

Anyone remember the case of Dez Wells departure from Xavier that ultimately sent him to Maryland?

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/college/xavier/2014/04/24/dez-wells-xavier-settle-lawsuit/8111709/

[SanityLost17]

Initial thoughts on the game: 
1. We can't win if Tevonn is not at full strength.  With their guards, his quickness is a must have.
2. Speaking of health, Darien needs to not let the face mask (if he has to wear one) effect his offensive output.   
3. Peters can't play like he did in the HL championship game.  He must drain open looks. 
4. Looks like Maryland and Green Bay require similar game plans.  Only problem is that Maryland has more guys that can hit outside shots.  I still think we pack it in like we did against Green Bay and force them to shoot from the outside.
5.  I have a feeling we are going to have to score over 70 points to win.  This is something we have not accomplished in a while.           

[valpotx]

I will be going to this game, so we can't lose  :

Valpo 67
Maryland 63

[wh]

Valparaiso surprised by nearby matchup with Maryland

http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/sports/ct-ptb-mens-basketball-valparaiso-st-0316-20150315-story.html

[valpotx]

Someone on their forum definitely knows their Valpo history lol:

Valpo can suck it. Every member of the Drew family can suck it. Lubos Barton can suck it. 1999, bitches.

Dean, you're my favorite OWG. Good thread.

[wh]

Comparison of Team Stats (Offensive):

http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/compare?t1-season=2014-2015&t1=valparaiso&t2=maryland

Comparison of Team Stats (Defensive):

http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/compare?t1-season=2014-2015&t1-type=3&t1=valparaiso&t2-type=3&t2=maryland

[wh]

ESPN Men's Basketball - Checking out all 68 teams in the field:

Valparaiso Crusaders (49): The Horizon League previews all dwelled on Green Bay star Keifer Sykes; little did we know the league's best player was just about to break out. Valpo sophomore Alec Peters is, for lack of a better term, a mini Frank Kaminsky -- a 6-foot-9 forward who rebounds, doesn't commit turnovers and shoots 50 percent from 2, 46 percent from 3 and 86 percent from the line. Throw in elite back-line defense from center Vashil Fernandez, and coach Bryce Drew, Patron Saint of March, might just have some fresh magic in store.

Maryland Terrapins (16): Fence-sitters beware. Maryland is divisive, and what side of that divide you fall on depends almost entirely on whether you agree with the following statement: Some teams just know how to win close games. If you agree, you'll assert that Maryland deserves all of the credit for its 11-1 record in close games, and those wins are purely a function of skill. If you disagree, you'd reply that, as a matter of statistical probability, even the very best teams tend to lose four out of 10 single-possession games. You'd note that no 14-4 major-conference team in the past four seasons has posted nearly as low an efficiency margin as the 2014-15 Terps). You would call Maryland lucky, and it would sound like an insult. The best answer may lie somewhere in the middle. Maryland may not be as good as its record, but guards Melo Trimble and Dez Wells are getting to the free throw line, and luck is the last thing on the defense's mind.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2015/story/_/id/12482305/a-first-look-every-team-2015-ncaa-tournament-basketball-field?ex_cid=espnTWe.

[truth219]

What's the cheapest ticket going for

[usc4valpo]

Valpo 54, MD 52.

Dick Vitale tries to kiss Ginger Zee after the game and gets nowhere.

[bbtds]

Someone on their forum definitely knows their Valpo history lol:

Valpo can suck it. Every member of the Drew family can suck it. Lubos Barton can suck it. 1999, bitches.

Dean, you're my favorite OWG. Good thread.

Before he puts this game down as a Terp win he ought to step back and count to two............ONE Mississippi........TWO M(ississippi)aryland   

[atkins]

I'm not in Vegas, so I am not betting, but if I were, I'd take Maryland with 4.5 any day of the week, month or year.  It won't be that close, and I say this as a Valpo grad and fan.  I do, however, think we will keep it reasonably close (i.e., within 12). 

[a3uge]

I'm not in Vegas, so I am not betting, but if I were, I'd take Maryland with 4.5 any day of the week, month or year.  It won't be that close, and I say this as a Valpo grad and fan.  I do, however, think we will keep it reasonably close (i.e., within 12).

Shocked!

[Kyle321n]

This I can say with great certainty, this will not be a high scoring game. Both team's strengths are defense, Maryland ranks 36th in defensive efficiency (behind our 31st rank).  Their other strength is getting to the line. Surprisingly we're pretty good at not letting teams get to the line on us (especially if you take out Oakland Pt. 1)

Defensively they are built very similarly to us. They don't force a ton of turnovers (something we're actually better than them at!), they block a solid amount of shots, and they don't let you get easy baskets. This is actually one of the worst defenses at stealing the ball (ranked 321) which is good because the majority of our turnovers are on steals. They allow 31.2% from three (40th in the country), 44.6% from two (64th) and get a block 11.6% of the possessions (77th). That's all pretty good and they are the top defense in a very defensive B1G. I'm looking for Alec to be fairly swallowed (he'll get his 10) and Darien, Jubril, and Skara will need to step up. I don't want Tevonn, Keith or EVic to force anything against their guards.


Offensively they are a little rough, especially in conference season. They've scored 70+ points only twice since February. Melo Trimble is clearly their top player. He gets to the line an insane 7 times a game and yet still shoots 4.5 threes a game. He can drive, he can shoot, he's last year's version of LeVonte Dority. He's also a pretty good passer. But at 6'3" he shouldn't be a problem for a healthy Tevonn or a combination of Darien and EVic. And if he gets around any of them, Vashil just needs to remember to keep his arms up and don't try to swat at the ball. Dez Wells takes a ton of shots (hits a decent amount of them) but he only plays about 25 minutes. When he's out there, be alert. And I don't think Bryce is going to be able to hide Alec defensively. Jered Nickens is a pick and pop 6'7" forward. He's taken 4 times as many threes as twos. Alec will have to be out on the wings to guard him and I see a lot of running through screens in his future. Jake Layman, their other forward, at 6'9", can take and make a few threes as well. I wouldn't be surprised if they have him out on the wings to keep Vashil out of the lane and keep the hoop clear for their guards. It'll be an interesting night for our defense, we've not played someone quite like this. I think the closest we've come is Milwaukee, but they have another guard and both are better than McWhorter. Plus their bigs are better than Tiby.


Schedule: In the OOC season they played 4 Top 100 KPom Teams, with wins over Arizona St., Oklahoma St., and Iowa St. and a loss to Virginia. These are all very good wins over tournament teams. Outside of that it's a who's who of CIT, CBI and bottom dwellers. Sounds familiar doesn't it? I think we could have pulled off a 10-3 record with an upset over one of those top 100 teams with this schedule. We would have been no worse than 9-4. That's how to throw together a top 100 OOC schedule without losing games. (take out our bottom 4 RPI games and replace them with the above 4 listed as losses we're 21-9 with a 52 RPI and a 125 SoS.)

Prediction: Call me a homer but I think we pull this off, 62-60. Alec hits a three with about 3 minutes to go to put us up, we build a little cushion and then hold a late charge and FT game at the end to win.

[Valpo89]

If VU wins, the final score will be 70-69.

[a3uge]

Valpo wins by 20. Book it.

[FWalum]

Melo Trimble is clearly their top player. He gets to the line an insane 7 times a game and yet still shoots 4.5 threes a game. He can drive, he can shoot, he's last year's version of LeVonte Dority. He's also a pretty good passer. But at 6'3" he shouldn't be a problem for a healthy Tevonn or a combination of Darien and EVic. And if he gets around any of them, Vashil just needs to remember to keep his arms up and don't try to swat at the ball. Dez Wells takes a ton of shots (hits a decent amount of them) but he only plays about 25 minutes. When he's out there, be alert. And I don't think Bryce is going to be able to hide Alec defensively. Jered Nickens is a pick and pop 6'7" forward. He's taken 4 times as many threes as twos. Alec will have to be out on the wings to guard him and I see a lot of running through screens in his future. Jake Layman, their other forward, at 6'9", can take and make a few threes as well. I wouldn't be surprised if they have him out on the wings to keep Vashil out of the lane and keep the hoop clear for their guards. It'll be an interesting night for our defense, we've not played someone quite like this. I think the closest we've come is Milwaukee, but they have another guard and both are better than McWhorter. Plus their bigs are better than Tiby.

This will be a lot different than what we have seen in the HL. They are going to spread the floor and make us guard the perimeter.  I don't think we will be able to run the "pack it in" defense that we have been running.  Maryland will move the bigs away from the basket and then drive and kick or dump.

[classof2014]

I think the initial game plan should be to pack it in. Force them to hit shots. They're not the worlds greatest 3-point shooting team. They're not Green Bay bad but very few teams are that poor at shooting. If we get Maryland to play our game then we have a terrific shot at winning. We've been able to do that the past 3 games, CSU and GB both played our game and we won. I think the most apparent was the second half of the championship game Green Bay was lost.

Both teams calling card is defense. It could come down to who takes care of the ball more and hits their 3s. Scoring inside will be very difficult on both sides. Offensively it'll depend on who plays better in transition and who is able to hit their open looks.

No offense to Maryland but they aren't the eight best team in the country.

This is the year Valpo makes the journey back to the Sweet 16!

[Valpo89]

You know what scares me? E. Victor trying to handle the ball against their fast guards. That could get ugly.

[classof2014]

Having KC back has helped EVN considerably, we have two players who can run the offense and each have different styles. Very hard to defend that. If EVN struggles we turn to KC.

The past few games though EVN has been fantastic running the point against some of the best defenses in the Horizon.

[justducky]

You know what scares me? E. Victor trying to handle the ball against their fast guards. That could get ugly.

I think that is the opportunity they will hand us. They will cover us tight outside and invite everybody to beat them off the dribble. I hope that EVN, Keith, Darien and Tevonn are working on their runners and pull up jumpers! So if they hand us lemons we will need a recipe for lemonade. Maybe some back door stuff will be there if our ball handlers can deliver the passes?

[talksalot]

What's the cheapest ticket going for

I scoured around the various sites...

All of the teams are the same... $100/ticket (WVA says $76 for their students... IF available)
MD and UBuff are seeding their tickets by the amount of money you donated.  Looks like all of the schools received about 300 tickets.

Ticketmaster is the official vendor at Nationwide... and they are showing some nosebleed tickets for $76 + fees... I didn't get that far into it to see what that totals...

http://www.ticketmaster.com/2015-ncaa-div-i-mens-basketball-columbus-ohio-03-20-2015/event/05004E339DDF25A2?artistid=1239566&majorcatid=10004&minorcatid=7&tm_link=venue_msg-0_05004E339DDF25A2

[talksalot]

from the WVA website...on tickets:

Gold Scholar and above members of the Mountaineer Athletic Club may request two tickets beginning at 9 a.m. Monday, March 16 by calling 1-800-WVU GAME. Ticket requests must be placed by 5 p.m. on Monday.

Ticket requests are not guaranteed and will be filled based on availability and Mountaineer Athletic Club annual giving level and priority points rank. Donors will be notified via email of the status of their ticket request no later than 7 p.m. on Monday, March 16.

A limited number of tickets will be made available to WVU students at 3 p.m. Monday, March 16, at the Mountaineer Ticket Office in the WVU Coliseum. WVU students with a valid student I.D. may purchase one ticket to Friday's game on a first-come, first-serve basis at the Mountaineer Ticket Office. Student tickets are $76 each and must be purchased in-person Monday.

Tickets are available for the West Virginia session only. All tickets purchased through the Mountaineer Ticket Office will be distributed at the West Virginia will call window beginning two hours before the Mountaineers' session at Nationwide Arena. The will call window is located in the southwest corner of the arena at the intersection of Nationwide Boulevard and McConnell Boulevard.