Football Pre-season - 2015

[VULB#62]

First of all: I am a solid supporter of the current staff.  I was ecstatic about the 4 wins in the first year. I loved that with a couple of exceptions we were competitive in at Least 7 of the 12 games we played (I would love to have the MSU and USD games back).

Now with the spring game in the past and we will have a 2015 roster that will be 50% newbies,  where will we be come Thanksgiving?  I will not post a poll yet --- too early.

But,,,,,,

Pluses:
Strong returning running attack
Experienced defense
Year 2 of the system

Issues:
New untested QB
Lack of experienced depth
New receiver unit

Other:
Open at EKU followed by SHU -- both FCS scholarship programs.

We could win 1 and just miss out on 5 others or win any bunch of 5 other games.  At this early point in time, what opinions (not necessarily predictions) do you have about how our 2015 squad will perform?

[valpochgo]

Tough schedule and 50% newbies = Challenging season

There will always be injuries so many of the freshman will probably have to play this year. 3 weeks of camp before EKU won't give them a lot of time to learn the system so I wouldn't expect much early in the season.  If we can win 4 games again playing a much tougher schedule than last year than I'd consider that a successful year with such a young team.

[covufan]

Is there a link to the schedule?  It does not appear to be on the valpoathletics site.

[valpopal]

Is there a link to the schedule?  It does not appear to be on the valpoathletics site.

Here it is: http://www.valpoathletics.com/football/schedule/2015-16/#.VTaCSGRVikp

[VUOR63]

I would venture to say that 50% freshmen is typical for FCS Nonscholarship.  In my class we had 14 guys left from an original class of 55.  That said, I think this coaching staff is good.  Really good.  And that means they know how to figure out their strengths, emphasize them and put the team in a position to win.  6 wins should be the goal and I wouldn't be surprised to see the team make a run for the league title.

[VULB#62]

From Mark's June Crusader Report....

Thanks to a lead gift from former football player Joe Gillen and his wife Jeanne, we will completely renovate the football locker room over the summer. Located in the ARC just south of the main arena, this renovation will directly benefit our current team and improve recruiting for future seasons. The renovation includes the removal of concrete pads to create more open space in both halves of the room, the replacement of all existing lockers with 100 wooden lockers, and new flooring. The diagrams above showcase the new layout and locker design. In conjunction with the creation of the "KB" Biel Center weight room this project represents another major step toward our goal of being one of the top programs in the Pioneer Football League.

I can remember a while back during the past 3 and 41 era participating in several discussions about the support facilities for FB and the poor quality of the locker room compared to other programs. This should offset that concern.  And if it is anything like the new weight room, it will be impressive to potential recruits.

So what will a recruit who comes on campus next fall see that did not exist just two years ago? 

    > New dedicated weight room
    > New locker room
    > Brown Field surrounded by a new track, storage building and fencing that makes it look like a real stadium.
    > 4 wins under the belt in just the first season under Coach Cecchini

"Where do I sign, Coach?"

[VUOR63]

I agree that all of those improvements will be attractive for recruiting but the major selling point is the intensity with which the players approach the program.  I'm pretty far removed from my time at Valpo (10 years this year), but I remember seeing spring practice and thinking how different the intensity level was from other programs I visited.

We'll win more than 4 this year.  Don't worry about the # of freshmen--that's par for the course for a program like this.

[VULB#62]

Here's an update from the VU Athletics Twitter post showing construction progress on the renovated locker room:

https://twitter.com/valpoathletics/status/621351705234534400

Nice attention to detail.  Still more to do.

[valpochgo]

New lockers video

https://twitter.com/valpoathletics/status/621785739466899457

[VULB#62]

Checked out the 2015-16 Team Roster posted on the FB website.  The new locker room is gonna be bulging (I believe they only built 100 lockers).  There are 115 names on it broken down as follows:

13 Seniors/RS Srs.
17 Juniors/RS Jrs.
28 Sophomores/RS Sophs
57 Freshmen/RS Fr.
115

This is a really young squad with 85 freshmen and sophomores.  There are 22 freshmen from Illinois and Indiana. Shows that this staff is working hard at getting local talent to come here.

But, like last year, we have to see who actually shows up for pre-season. And the reporting date is two weeks away, August 6th.

[valporun]

It hurts to have only 30 upperclassmen, but by this stage of their careers, unless they are starters or key players in specific packages, we have to hope these 30 guys know the playbook well enough to prep the 85 freshmen and sophomores to be ready for their time to shine and step in to make a difference in the program's growth. I'd rather see that in 2 years, the 85 freshmen and sophomores are still there, and doing the same thing for the next set of 85 freshmen and sophomores to be ready for their time in the depth/growth chart.

[VULB#62]

Some additional roster breakdown by position groups:

OFFENSE
QB - 5
RB - 9
OL - 19
TE - 6
WR - 17
TOT: 56

DEFENSE
DL - 17
LB - 17
DB - 19
TOT: 53

SPECIAL TEAMS
P/K - 6

[vu72]

Some additional roster breakdown by position groups:

OFFENSE
QB - 5
RB - 9
OL - 19
TE - 6
WR - 17
TOT: 56

DEFENSE
DL - 17
LB - 17
DB - 19
TOT: 53

SPECIAL TEAMS
P/K - 6

I don't think getting down to 100 will be an issue.  First, probably 5-10 will change their minds--either upper classmen who decide to focus on academics, or freshman who rethink coming to the tundra.  Next, as an example, if I am sitting sixth on the depth chart for kicker, I think I would focus my attention to studying and/or co-eds rather then working really hard to move up to fourth.

[VULB#62]

Here is the PFL coaches pre-season poll released today.  Still in the bottom third.  Lots of incentive to fight our way upward -- Respect only comes after you've earned it and we haven't done that yet.

http://www.pioneer-football.org/media/pdf/2015%20PFL%20Coaches%20Poll.pdf

Heres the VU article
http://www.valpoathletics.com/football/news/2015-16/14747/valpo-picked-9th-in-pfl-preseason-coaches-poll/#.Vbf3qMa4ko8

Pioneer Football League
2015 Preseason Coaches' Poll Team Points
1. San Diego (7) 89
2. Dayton (3) 87
3. Drake (1) 86
4. Campbell 71
5. Butler 59
6. Stetson 54
7. Marist 50
8. Morehead State 40
9. Valparaiso 37
10. Davidson 22
Jacksonville —

Here's what they wrote about VU:
In his first season, Valparaiso head coach Dave Cecchini led his team to two-win PFL effort for the first time since 2008 and its first four-win campaign since 2007. Losses at quarterback and wide receiver are tempered by the return of its three leading running backs that combined for more than a third of the team's offense – senior Brandon Hall (173 carries, 885 yards, 10 TD), junior Grayson Bastin (95 carries, 308 yards) and redshirt senior Jake Hutson (65 carries, 237 yards). A considerably improved defensive unit gave up 100 fewer yards per game last season and is again anchored by senior linebacker Alex Green who has posted 108 and 110 tackles in his last two seasons.

[vu72]

Hard to react but I'm guessing this will be bulletin board material.  Although we are young, those sophomores so a lot of action last year.  Having the system in place for a full year has got to help.  I'm hoping for a winning season for the first time since, what?  2003???

[VULB#62]

Despite the marked growth in the program, I think our schedule works against a winning season. We face 4 of the top 5 preseason leaders and Jacksonville.  We also open against 2 FCS scholarship teams with both EKU and SHU coming off NCAA FCS playoff appearances.

My "early-preseason-I-don't-know-our-players-well-enough-yet" guess at what is winnable and losable (Probable Ls are the losses that might also be squeakers our way):

9/3 @ EKU L
9/12 Sacred Heart L
9/19 College of Faith (ARK) W
9/26 USD (Homecoming) (#1) L
10/3 @ Davidson (#10) W
10/10 @ Drake (#3) Probable L
1017 Dayton (#2) L
1024 Stetson (#6) W
11/7 @ Butler (#5) Probable L
11/14 Morehead State (#8) W
11/21 @ Jacksonville (--) L

Last year we coulda/shouda beaten USD, MSU and Campbell, but we didn't and teams will play a little more attention to us this season -- you know Butler will. So we sneak up on no one. I'm thinking 4 wins again, but even closer more competitive losses to the power PFL teams.  In the OOC games, I'd like us to do better than Morehead did against EKU last year (lost 13-55),  and I'd also hope we show better than Marist did against SHU (lost 7-28) last year as well.  It's an 11 game season, so we need 6 Ws.  Wonder if the new locker room is worth a TD a game? 

[covufan]

Despite the marked growth in the program, I think our schedule works against a winning season. We face 4 of the top 5 preseason leaders and Jacksonville.  We also open against 2 FCS scholarship teams with both EKU and SHU coming off NCAA FCS playoff appearances.

My "early-preseason-I-don't-know-our-players-well-enough-yet" guess at what is winnable and losable (Probable Ls are the losses that might also be squeakers our way):

9/3 @ EKU L
9/12 Sacred Heart L
9/19 College of Faith (ARK) W
9/26 USD (Homecoming) (#1) L
10/3 @ Davidson (#10) W
10/10 @ Drake (#3) Probable L
1017 Dayton (#2) L
1024 Stetson (#6) W
11/7 @ Butler (#5) Probable L
11/14 Morehead State (#8) W
11/21 @ Jacksonville (--) L

Last year we coulda/shouda beaten USD, MSU and Campbell, but we didn't and teams will play a little more attention to us this season -- you know Butler will. So we sneak up on no one. I'm thinking 4 wins again, but even closer more competitive losses to the power PFL teams.  In the OOC games, I'd like us to do better than Morehead did against EKU last year (lost 13-55),  and I'd also hope we show better than Marist did against SHU (lost 7-28) last year as well.  It's an 11 game season, so we need 6 Ws.  Wonder if the new locker room is worth a TD a game? 

I tend to agree that it will be tough to get to six wins - tough but possible.  Massey has us winning the same games:

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=279541

From 2013 to 2014 we improved about 20 points per game - doubt we will see that much improvement this year.  I do feel that Coach Cecchini will continue to improve the offense, thereby controlling the ball more and keeping the defense off the field.  If we improve another 10 points per game, we could see six wins this year.  The San Diego, Dayton and Butler games would be our other possible wins.

[usc4valpo]

5 and 6 - they will beat Drake

[VULB#62]

Alex Green is a PFL pre-season pick at LB.  Well deserved after two years of triple digit tackles.  John Guilford should have made the team as well IMO.

http://www.valpoathletics.com/football/news/2015-16/14748/green-named-preseason-all-pfl-linebacker/#.VbkbTsa4ko8

[FloridaFootball]

Good luck to Valpo Football this year! I will miss being in the stands!

David Gadson - (Devan Gadson) 

[usc4valpo]

I just noticed something - why is Valpo only playing 11 games this year? Couldn't Alabama get them in for their SEC late November game?

[78crusader]

Hoping for 6-5.  But my math tells me otherwise:

Good coaching staff +
Confidence from last year's results +
Better special teams play +
Updated facilities +
Better defensive play -
Tougher schedule -
Inexperienced QB and receivers -
Not enough upperclassmen -
Opponents who no longer look past us =

Win 4, Lose 7

Paul

[VULB#62]

Here is the PFL release (August 2) that includes the Pre-season Coaches audio interviews.  I have only listened to Dave Cecchini's, but I eventually will try to hear everyone.

http://www.pioneer-football.org/news/archives/2015/1065/preseason-pfl-coaches-teleconference-audio/

No real surprises among the players Dave mentioned and he acknowledged the QB/receiver question marks.  RBs are the strength.  Defense was cited as the most experienced segment and the foundation of the entire team.  On D he did mention that Vince McPherson (6-1, 200) and Jay Sone (6-2, 205), both RS-Sophs, were looking good at LB.  Looks like the MLBs will be Green and Kye Hall.

The staff feels that the offense, even with the question marks, will be better than last year.  The D will be even faster to the ball.  Players report on Thursday.  Gonna be interesting to see who emerges to fill the shoes of graduated seniors or if some talented freshmen push their way into prominence.

[covufan]

I just noticed something - why is Valpo only playing 11 games this year? Couldn't Alabama get them in for their SEC late November game?

Alabama was too scared:

By transitivity, this 19 game path shows that Valparaiso dominates Alabama by 248 points.


#   Date                Winner                      Scr       Loser                     Scr

1 2014-11-08 @ Valparaiso # 506 (4-8)  17         Butler# 478 (4-7)    3 
2 2014-10-04 Butler# 478 (4-7) 49 @ Stetson# 493 (5-7) 41 
3 2014-11-08 @ Stetson# 493 (5-7) 22 Marist# 432 (4-7) 14 
4 2014-11-01 @ Marist# 432 (4-7) 17 Jacksonville# 291 (9-2) 16 
5 2014-09-13 @ Jacksonville# 291 (9-2) 35 San Diego# 313 (9-3) 18 
6 2014-09-06 @ San Diego# 313 (9-3) 23 W New Mexico# 372 (5-6) 17 
7 2014-10-04 @ W New Mexico# 372 (5-6) 24 Ft Lewis# 413 (3-8) 17 
8 2014-10-11 @ Ft Lewis# 413 (3-8) 23 CSU-Pueblo# 131 (12-1) 22 
9 2014-09-13 CSU-Pueblo# 131 (12-1) 47 @ Sam Houston St# 98 (10-4) 21 
10 2014-11-22 @ Sam Houston St# 98 (10-4) 38 Cent Arkansas# 158 (6-6) 31 
11 2014-10-25 @ Cent Arkansas# 158 (6-6) 58 Northwestern LA# 144 (6-6) 35 
12 2014-09-20 Northwestern LA# 144 (6-6) 30 @ Louisiana Tech# 69 (8-5) 27 
13 2014-11-01 @ Louisiana Tech# 69 (8-5) 59 W Kentucky# 79 (7-5) 10 
14 2014-08-29 @ W Kentucky# 79 (7-5) 59 Bowling Green# 116 (7-6) 31 
15 2014-09-13 @ Bowling Green# 116 (7-6) 45 Indiana# 89 (4-8) 42 
16 2014-09-20 Indiana# 89 (4-8) 31 @ Missouri# 16 (10-3) 27 
17 2014-11-28 @ Missouri# 16 (10-3) 21 Arkansas# 19 (6-6) 14 
18 2014-11-22 @ Arkansas# 19 (6-6) 30 Mississippi# 8 (9-3) 0 
19 2014-10-04 @ Mississippi# 8 (9-3) 23 Alabama# 1 (12-1) 17

[valpo95]

16 2014-09-20 Indiana# 89 (4-8) 31 @ Missouri# 16 (10-3) 27 

Still hard to believe that Indiana went on the road and beat Missouri.