Men's Soccer - 2015

[VULB#62]

VUMSO Knocks off nationally ranked #18 Western Michigan 2 nil!  Go Crusaders!

[valpotx]

Each of our teams is able to and has beaten ranked opponents in recent years...except for our flagship men's basketball program.  Let's change that this year!

[agibson]

VUMSO Knocks off nationally ranked #18 Western Michigan 2 nil!  Go Crusaders!

Big time!  And a great opportunity at home on Monday against a ranked Nebraska-Omaha team.

I notice Wright State's nationally ranked at the moment.

[VULB#62]

NSCAA Poll as of 9/22:
Nebraska-Omaha is #23 in the NSCAA national rankings
Wright State is #5 in the Great Lakes Region but does not have any votes in the NSCAA national poll.

Top Drawer Soccer Rankings as of 9/21:
Nebraska-Omaha -- not even mentioned
Wright State  #20 nationally

Soccer America Top 25 as of 9/21:
Nebraska Omaha - no mention
Wright State - no mention

Quite a swing between polls.  Tells ya something about the lack on consensus across the soccer community.  I favor the NSCAA poll because it's a coach's poll.

[agibson]

Quite a swing between polls.

Yeah, WMU was similarly unevenly represented in the first two.  I didn't check the third.

[agibson]

Tells ya something about the lack on consensus across the soccer community.  I favor the NSCAA poll because it's a coach's poll.

I should double check, but I think the NSCAA regional and national polls aren't even always consistent.  You could be ranked above a team in the national poll, but below them in the regional poll, etc.  Like there are two different groups of coaches doing the vote.

[VULB#62]

Proves the point -- no consistent ranking system.  Makes you wonder about which teams go to the Soccer Dance.

But If we win the HL we go.  End of story.  Go Valpo!

[covufan]

In the Massey rating system we moved up 27 spots to 82nd in Division I:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=csoc&sub=NCAA I

Our sked via Massey:

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=282495

[agibson]

Interesting Massey page there.  Computer rankings?  Not just D1? 

I wonder how accurate the percentage chance to win numbers are.

Big home vs away swung, which seems right.  And not -that- commanding of a percentage over even a much lower ranked team, which may also be right.

Makes these rankings, which often seem to be "they have a lot of wins, rank them" seem not -so- crazy.  Beating the odds and all.  But, it may just be random chance that a few have gawky records, and they may mostly regress to the mean.  Even in a short season.

If any alumni are in town for the game tonight, feel free to come over and say hello!  I'll probably have the vuvuzelas out for visibility, or mostly to amuse/embarrass the kids.

[talksalot]

Nice win over CSU tonight at Brown Field, 1-0...

[covufan]

Interest Massey page there.  Computer rankings?  Not just D1? 

Massey also has ratings for other sports as well:

http://www.masseyratings.com/college.php

[agibson]

Was a fun game Saturday, good to walk away with three points - seems important for the League standings to cash those in at home.

Omaha tonight should be interesting.  In the abstract, I'd hope we could handle a Summit League team, only in D1 for a few years, only had a men's soccer team for a few years (only University of Nebraska campus with men's soccer?!).

But, they've got a gaudy 6-1-1 record, with a win over ranked Irvine.

But, on the road, they're only 1-1-1. Beating Depaul, losing to Marquette, and being held to a 1-1 draw Saturday by IUPUI.

So, I'm hoping we can handle them on Brown Field.

Omaha's had/has games Saturday/Monday, but we're on Wednesday/Saturday/Monday and the starters didn't get much rest Saturday.  It'll be interesting to see how seriously we take this non-league game, how much we rely on the bench, and how all that goes.  A very long bench this year, and hopefully fairly deep.  It'll be interesting to see how the minutes go tonight.

6:00 PM, Brown Field!

[VULB#62]

ESPN3!

[VULB#62]

MSO takes down #23 Omaha in OT 1 - nil. Unbeaten streak now at seven straight. Congratulations!  Watched the match.  Stats don't convey the possession dominance.

[covufan]

In the Massey rating system we moved up 27 spots to 82nd in Division I:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=csoc&sub=NCAA I

Our sked via Massey:

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=282495

Now up to 61 in Division I!

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=csoc2015&sub=11590

[agibson]

MSO takes down #23 Omaha in OT 1 - nil. Unbeaten streak now at seven straight. Congratulations!  Watched the match.  Stats don't convey the possession dominance.

I hope I'm not just being a homer here, but we really did seem massively dominant. I was definitely thinking, "This is a ranked team?".  Was it 70% possession?  Maybe not quite that high, but it wouldn't shock me at all.  We had some trouble connecting in the final 3rd, controlling long balls and turning them into shots, or getting them under control in the corner and having trouble turning them into quality crosses.  And definitely trouble timing runs - sometimes too early and would have to pull back from offsides.  Sometimes too late and the ball would just bounce through to the goalie.  But, a million opportunities like that.  It was a shame that it went to overtime.

We were playing a rather high line, and successfully keeping Omaha on their back heels for what felt like basically the whole game.  Their most dangerous chances seemed to come on set pieces: just a couple of corners, couple of free kicks.  Their attacking forays were usually getting one guy through with the ball, and watching our defenders race to catch up with him.  But, generally these were 1 on 3+goalie type situations, and our defenders had plenty of pace to handle them.  There was _one_ time I remember where they got through cleanly on goal in that kind of situation, and Nico raced off his line, dove full stretch to pull it off his toe (and clattered the opposing forward as he tripped over Nico's outstretched body).

It felt like we were holding the ball pretty well, were often intercepting passes or tackling it back in the midfield, and that Omaha's chances were kind of anemic, and quickly got turned over.

I'll be very curious to see (over video, alas, and hopefully video) how this develops as our brutal schedule continues.

The starters stayed in for most of the game, despite playing just on Saturday.  Aidoud did sit for overtime.  And there was a little more mixing than on Saturday amongst the forwards and the run-a-lot midfielders.  But, these guys are putting in a lot of minutes.

Five in a row on the road coming up.  Including at Wright State (3rd place preseason, sometimes nationally ranked) at Milwaukee (still nabbed a first place vote pre-season), at New Mexico (sometimes ranked top 10?), and at Michigan (likely to be nationally ranked).

Should be interesting!

[agibson]

NSCAA Poll as of 9/22:
Nebraska-Omaha is #23 in the NSCAA national rankings
Wright State is #5 in the Great Lakes Region but does not have any votes in the NSCAA national poll.

Top Drawer Soccer Rankings as of 9/21:
Nebraska-Omaha -- not even mentioned
Wright State  #20 nationally

Soccer America Top 25 as of 9/21:
Nebraska Omaha - no mention
Wright State - no mention

Maybe no big surprise that Western Michigan 18, lost to us, and  Wright State 20, lost in Dayton to Northern Kentucky and drew in Dayton to Green Bay have fallen out of the Top Drawer Soccer national rankings.  These rankings, and really are the basketball rankings so different?, seem to rely a lot on record, and who's hot lately.

[edit: fixed the Wright State games, both at home]

[VULB#62]

Agibson, nice summary below on the possession.  Agree that this could have been an easier win had the boys organized better in the attacking third.  Many times our attackers were all clustered on the same line deep into the box and when the ball bounded out by just a few yards the only players around the ball were in white  Need to think about better spacing and the role of trailers in the attack.  Also felt that many of our corner kicks were 1) played too far out in the box to pressure the Omaha defense (i.e, no one could put their head onto the ball with authority) and 2) were not driven into the box crisply to allow for a well-paced header at goal.

[agibson]

NSCAA Poll as of 9/22:
Nebraska-Omaha is #23 in the NSCAA national rankings
Wright State is #5 in the Great Lakes Region but does not have any votes in the NSCAA national poll.

The new NSCAA just came out - it's not completely clear to me what instructions they were under.  Maybe they were told to ignore Monday's games?  The records and such don't seem to include them.

Omaha falls to RV (2) nationally, drawing IUPUI (and losing to us... after the polling period?). 

Regionally we enter at #8. First ranking I've heard for us anywhere this season (apart from #2 in the Horizon League preseason poll).  Western Michigan falls #3 --> #6 on their loss to us.  Wright State falls #5 --> #9 after their loss and draw (and both of those at _home_, let me fix the other post.)

[agibson]

Many times our attackers were all clustered on the same line deep into the box and when the ball bounded out by just a few yards the only players around the ball were in white 

Yeah, I remember one attack very clearly like that.  Really made me wish for a Zev Taublieb (in the attacking role he played for Sacramento, at least) to come crashing into the box as the late runner.

I'm sure it's difficult to get the timing and coordination down, and hopefully it'll come.  But, it did feel like if we were clicking a little more smoothly on these kinds of things we might have had three goals.  Or six (like the women at YSU!).

That said, I did notice some lovely team play in terms of give-and-gos around Omaha players, touches around the opposition, little things like that.  Notably from Isaiah Madrid, but from others as well.  Some signs of chemistry, for sure.

Also felt that many of our corner kicks were 1) played too far out in the box to pressure the Omaha defense (i.e, no one could put their head onto the ball with authority) and 2) were not driven into the box crisply to allow for a well-paced header at goal.

I couldn't tell sometimes if we were really going for goal on some corners, or if they were misdirected.  Better than an earlier game this season, at least, where it felt like everything was being played low, right into the defense.  But, it does feel like we're not quite clicking here either.  Some of the free kicks looked better, and did find our players' heads.

On some of our breakaways, it also felt like our attacker had trouble deciding "shoot, or run it out wide and try for a cross?", and sometimes didn't seem comfortable e.g. with a left-footed shot that might have had a much better chance than the right.

Hopefully things that can develop.

I suppose we have a large number of junior transfers this year, so will gain a lot of experience into next season?  I've not dared catalogue who we're going to lose (Gandarilla, Aidoud, ...)  But, this season's still just beginning!

[VULB#62]

NSCAA Poll as of 9/22:
Nebraska-Omaha is #23 in the NSCAA national rankings
Wright State is #5 in the Great Lakes Region but does not have any votes in the NSCAA national poll.

The new NSCAA just came out - it's not completely clear to me what instructions they were under.  Maybe they were told to ignore Monday's games?  The records and such don't seem to include them.

Omaha falls to RV (2) nationally, drawing IUPUI (and losing to us... after the polling period?). 

Regionally we enter at #8. First ranking I've heard for us anywhere this season (apart from #2 in the Horizon League preseason poll).  Western Michigan falls #3 --> #6 on their loss to us.  Wright State falls #5 --> #9 after their loss and draw (and both of those at _home_, let me fix the other post.)

I know Mike takes these things with a grain of salt (see our previous discussion on rankings for the same reasons) but it is nice for us fans to chat about and it looks good on news releases.  If we can take down UWM on Saturday the NSCAA will show two good wins (one away).  That should boost our stock considerably.

[agibson]

but it is nice for us fans to chat about and it looks good on news releases.

Yeah, I think that's about right.  There's not _so_ much by the way of quality reporting and analysis out there, for our team at least. So, I'll talk about what scraps I can find

I appreciate what WVUR, the Torch, and the Valpo Athletics web folks do, but it feels a little bit like box score reporting much of the time.  With a feel of "not really soccer people here, but giving it a go".  Not that I could likely do any better!  Hopefully as the game continues to mature we get more students, or others, through the pipeline who are as comfortable talking about soccer as they are about football, baseball, basketball.

[VULB#62]

Preview of the UWM game and an assessment of the progress so far.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=6&v=Q5ofaHmfSP0

[Kyle321n]

I looked at the schedule because I wanted to catch a soccer game at some point this season and while I couldn't make the Omaha game I wondered what the next game at home would be. Almost a month between home games? Who came up with this crazy schedule.

[agibson]

I looked at the schedule because I wanted to catch a soccer game at some point this season and while I couldn't make the Omaha game I wondered what the next game at home would be. Almost a month between home games? Who came up with this crazy schedule.

Yeah, Avery's schedules have been more or less of this flavor for at least the last couple of seasons.  I assume that, like basketball, it's not easy to get high quality opponents to come to Valpo.  And that Mike values such games, finds that his players value them, and so is willing to go on the road to make it happen.

But, it's definitely a brutal road stretch coming up (at Milwaukee Saturday, a week later at Wright State, then I guess home briefly before playing at New Mexico Wednesday, and maybe even home again briefly before at Nothern Kentucky Saturday.... and maybe then straight to Michigan for a Monday game?)

When I first saw the schedule, Omaha didn't look like a highlight exactly.  But, their national ranking put some spice into it.  Might be the most hyped home game of the season, depending on how the conference play shakes out.

The Horizon League home games were with teams ranked 6, 10, 7, 9 in the pre-season poll.  So, altogether, it does make a pretty unfavorable home schedule.

Some great opponents on the road, to be sure (Indiana, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Western Michigan, New Mexico, Michigan).

And, we'll see, Milwaukee, Oakland, maybe others could also be quality road games.  Probably no road game in the league is going to feel easy.  (And, as our conference results have gone in recent seasons, probably _no_ league game is going to look easy.  With small number of goals, and a reasonable amount of parity, it does feel like there are a lot of 60-40, 70-30 games, or closer.)

If we manage top-of-the table we host the semi-finals and finals.  So, we could have a couple of good home games during the tournament.  Otherwise, if we're #3 or #4 we get a quarter-final game at home.  Looks like four teams get dropped from the tournament entirely this year, with just six teams competing.