Commissioner's 2015-16 Team Previews

[vu72]

what's the site again?

[FWalum]

Tommie McCune

In an Oakland Post article, "According to Kampe, he and McCune decided together that basketball was a deterrent to his pursuit of a college degree."
Somehow I doubt this is the whole truth... 

[wh]

2015-16 Horizon League Team Previews
by Commissioner » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:50 pm
Valparaiso
2015
28-6 Overall
13-3 Conference (1st)
RPI #56
Lost NCAA 1st Round

2016
Returns 98.8% of scoring
Returns 98.8% of rebounding

Before the 2013-14 season, I noted that if other league members didn't stop Valparaiso that season, they weren't likely to stop the Crusaders in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons. Valpo was stopped in 2014, finishing 4th. But Valpo indeed won the Horizon regular season and tournament titles last year, and is a prohibitive favorite to repeat in 2016, which would give the Crusader 4 regular season titles in 5 years.

Valpo returns, well, basically everybody from last year's 28 win team, and adds to that a talented transfer, a 2014 all-freshman team member who sat out last season with injury, and perhaps the most heralded freshman recruit in the Horizon since Ray McCallum. Coach Bryce Drew's biggest problem may be finding minutes for everyone while keeping a manageable rotation.

This is all to the good, even for other Horizon teams. Entering the season, this is the most highly touted Horizon team since Detroit in 2011-12. That Titan team eventually won the Horizon tournament, but a poor start prevented the Titans from making much national noise, and relegated them to a 15 seed and an early exit in the NCAAs. Valpo's success this year is extremely important to the Horizon. The league desperately needs an NCAA win or two after 4 consecutive seasons of 1 and out, especially with the extra money from Butler's two final four appearances disappearing. Valpo may also give the conference its best chance for an at-large bid in a few years, either because they get upset in the conference tournament and snag an at-large bid themselves, or because their success helps drag some other Horizon team into at-large contention. And we need the reputation boost of a team that at least gets into some Top 25 discussion.

For reasons that are nearly inexplicable to me, Valpo was not a unanimous choice to win the Horizon in the Conference pre-season poll, but they were a heavy favorite, and Crusaders filled 4 of the 10 slots on the predicted All-Conference teams. Given that the Horizon doesn't have another team this year that looks especially good (Oakland could become one, but by and large I think they're getting too much hype for a 16-17 team that loses two of its top 3 players and is relying on a bunch of transfers who haven't ever really done much), its possible to see the Crusaders going undefeated in conference play, which no Horizon team has done since 2010.

Trivia: Can you name the four MCC/Horizon teams to go undefeated in conference play? Answer below.


The Crusaders start with All-Horizon forward Alec Peters, top rival to Oakland's Kahlil Felder for POY as we enter the season. Peters is the real deal, an excellent three point shooter (47%) who can go inside with the best players in the league. Peters will line up next to 6-11 senior center Vashil Fernandez, last year's Horizon Defensive Player of the Year. Fernandez was granted a final year of eligibility during the off-season, pretty much sealing up the only potential hole in Valpo's lineup. He is the best rim protector in the league by far.

With Fernandez guarding the lane, the Crusaders have the luxury of going with a three guard lineup (most Horizon teams do it from necessity). Look for the Walker non-brothers, Tevonn and Darien, to start at the wings and senior Keith Carter to take the point. Darien, a 6-3 senior, averaged 10.7 ppg last season after coming over from the juco ranks. Tevonn, a 6-2 sophomore, averaged 10.3 points and made the conference All-Freshman team. Carter, a 6-1 senior, has battled the mid-season transfer blues and a number of nagging injuries since transferring in from St. Louis. He appeared to have finally found the form that made Rick Majerus call him one of his best recruits ever, averaging 13.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4 assists in five games in late December and early January, when he was again forced to the sidelines with a toe injury. If he stays healthy he should be one of the league's best point guards.

There's a ton of depth behind the starters. 6-7, 230 lb. Jubril Adekoya was the Conference Sixth Man of the Year last season. When he joins Fernandez and Peters on the floor the Crusaders front line is as intimidating as any in the league. Also available for duty is 6-8 Croatian soph David Skara, who averaged almost 20 minutes a game as a freshman last season, reaching double-figures in scoring 8 times.

The Crusaders can go big at guard, too. Victor Nickerson is a 6-8 G/F who started 17 games last season. He's recovering from off-season wrist surgery and may not be ready when the non-conference season begins, but he should be on the floor by Christmas. They've also got 6-7 shooting guard Shane Hammink, a transfer from LSU. Valpo fans seem to be going ga-ga over Hammink, a bench warmer at LSU, and I suspect they're overrating his impact. But he'll contribute something, and he and Nickerson should be able to shoot over most any guard in the league save our own Paris Bass.

Carter, meanwhile, will face competition for the starting PG slot from Lexus Williams, a member of the conference All-Freshman team in 2014 who sat out last season with a torn ACL. Deep depth at guard comes from sophomore Max Joseph, who played well last season when Carter was injured, and junior Nick Davidson. If Nickerson, Carter, and Williams are healthy, both Joseph and Davidson will spend most of their time on the pine, but they would be rotation players for many Horizon teams.

Finally, the Crusaders have a back up for Fernandez in 7-1 freshman center Derrik Smits, son of former NBAer Rik Smits. Smits was a top 200 recruit nationally, and he'll get the opportunity to break in gradually as Fernandez's understudy this year. But he definitely will play. It's been some time since any Horizon team has brought in directly from high school a true center as good as Smits.

As noted, Bryce Drew will have to keep everyone happy. But that's actually one of Drew's strengths as a coach, and he's never felt the need to play everybody. This should be a very happy year in Valpo.

Still, the Crusaders may not match last season's 28 wins, largely because they've got a tougher non-conference schedule. We'll probably have a sense if this is going to be a great season or merely a very good one at Valparaiso by Thanksgiving Day. The Crusaders' difficult early season schedule includes Iona at home and Rhode Island, Oregon, and Oregon State on the road, all in the first 11 days of the season. The Crusaders are also on the Horizon's "Belmont rotation" this year, giving them two games against the Bruins that ought to be good for the Crusader RPI.

So let's sum up: We've got the league's best front court player (Peters); best defensive player (Fernandez); balanced scoring; size; good three point shooting; good foul shooting; strong rebounding; depth at every position; and what seems to be excellent team chemistry. That'll work.

While Horizon fans will all want their team to beat Valpo, the league would benefit from a big Crusader season. Every team in the conference stands to benefit from a Sweet 16 team and a national ranking, neither of which has occurred since Butler left the league. Valpo is a reasonable candidate for both this year.

Probable Starters
C- Vashil Fernandez, 6-11 Sr., 6.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.9 bpg, .564 FG%
F- Alec Peters, 6-9 Jr., 16.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, .466 3PFG%, .829 FT%
G- Darien Walker, 6-3 Sr., 10.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, .361 3PFG%
G- Tevonn Walker, 6-2 Soph., 10.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.1 spg
PG- Keith Carter, 6-1 Sr., 8.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.7 apg, .372 3PFG%

Other Key Players
C- Derrick Smits,7-1 Fr.
F- Jubril Adekoya, 6-7 Jr., 4.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg
F- David Skara, 6-8 Soph., 5.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg
G/F- E. Victor Nickerson, 6-8 Sr., 6.2 ppg
G- Shane Hammink, 6-7 Jr., 1.0 ppg with LSU in 2014
PG- Lexus Williams, 6-0 Soph., 6.5 ppg, 2.4 apg in 2014

Answer to Trivia:
Butler, 2010 (18-0)
Green Bay, 1996 (16-0)
Xavier, 1995 (14-0)
Loyola, 1980 (5-0)

[bbtds]

Tommie McCune is out.

Wouldn't be a shock but what are the details?

http://opgrizzden.blogspot.com/2013/01/oakland-releases-west-virginia-transfer.html

Saginaw native and former West Virginia forward Tommie McCune was dismissed by Oakland Wednesday for violating team policy having not played a single game for the Golden Grizzlies.

"He's a really good player," Kampe said. "Unfortunately, he's going to be a good player for somebody else."
McCune had a criminal record, which he and Kampe addressed at the time of his transfer.
"We knew he had some issues through his life," Kampe said. "I really like him and will continue to help him be successful whether he's at Oakland or not."
McCune reportedly left West Virginia as a result of a lack of playing time and said he didn't feel it was good fit for him.

[FWalum]

Tommie McCune is out.

Wouldn't be a shock but what are the details?

http://opgrizzden.blogspot.com/2013/01/oakland-releases-west-virginia-transfer.html

Saginaw native and former West Virginia forward Tommie McCune was dismissed by Oakland Wednesday for violating team policy having not played a single game for the Golden Grizzlies.

"He's a really good player," Kampe said. "Unfortunately, he's going to be a good player for somebody else."
McCune had a criminal record, which he and Kampe addressed at the time of his transfer.
"We knew he had some issues through his life," Kampe said. "I really like him and will continue to help him be successful whether he's at Oakland or not."
McCune reportedly left West Virginia as a result of a lack of playing time and said he didn't feel it was good fit for him.

The Article you are quoting was from his first incident, not this most recent dismissal.

[blackpantheruwm]

On Tommie McCune, I would note that Oakland isn't calling it a dismissal, but a mutual parting of the ways. I'm guessing he was on a tight leash and did something relatively small to get kicked off. My guess is it's bigger than missing a practice, but much smaller than cheating on a test or committing a crime. That's obviously just a guess, but if it was something truly bad Oakland wouldn't call it a mutual decision.

And if Commissioner doesn't dislike Milwaukee, he must not have been around in 2005. It was a foul.

[blackpantheruwm]

Just a couple notes on Milwaukee, responding to a few of Panther U's comments:

It should also be noted that when Commissioner's preview went up, we had no idea that Austin Arians (11.1 ppg) would be out for the season.
* * *
Also, Akeem Springs spent two months playing with a broken hand that a trainer had diagnosed as a sprain.
* * *
I only bring these up because a lot of our fans' hopes for the season wouldn't have been as high without the two guys expected to create 90% of our scoring on the wing.

Here Panther U seems to suggest that Milwaukee underperformed last year (at least per Milwaukee fan expectations) because of injuries. Well, no. Milwaukee hardly suffered an injury-free year, and obviously would have been better without those injuries, but life wasn't so bad. Basically, they lost Arians for the year, and Springs missed two games and playing hurt in some others. That's not an unusual or particularly unlucky year. Injuries are part of the game. You guys, after all, lost Lexus Williams for the season and Keith Carter for a substantial part. You had more injury issues last year than Milwaukee. My Titans lost Patrick Onwenu, our main inside guy, minutes into the first game of the year. Wright State suffered far more injuries than Milwaukee, losing JT Yoho, Kendall Griffin, and Steve Davis for basically all the conference season, and watching Joe Thomasson and Reggie Arceneaux play hurt much of the year. UIC lost their best big man, McClellan, for a good stretch, and lost their starting point guards right out of the gate.  Cleveland State was without Charlie Lee and Marlin Mason for stretches. It wasn't a good year for Milwaukee on the injury front, but it wasn't an unusually bad year, either.

Ken Pomeroy ranked Milwaukee as the 75th luckiest team in the nation last year, that is to say, in the top 25 percent for "luckiness." (By comparison, the Titans were the 204th luckiest team (i.e. they were unlucky); Valparaiso 58th; Green Bay 100th; Oakland 136th). In other words, the stats say that the Panthers' 14-16 finish last season was no fluke—if anything, it was slightly better than the team really played.

Luck is whatever. Maryland was one of the "luckiest" teams in the NCAA last year. Duke, the national champions, were the 37th luckiest team in Division I. National runner-up Wisconsin was 145th luckiest. It's a meaningless stat.

It's meaningless only if you don't know what it means. To say Duke was luckier than Wisconsin is not to say that Duke wasn't better than Wisconsin, or didn't beat Wisconsin, or didn't deserve to beat Wisconsin. It's to say that if you could rerun the season with the same players, schedule, injuries, etc., Wisconsin would be more likely to do better than they did in the actual year than would Duke. Or, within the Horizon, if we could replay last season, Detroit would be more likely to improve than Valpo. That doesn't mean Detroit would be better than Valpo, not by a long shot. Far from being meaningless, however, "luck" is a pretty predictor of whether a team is likely to get better or worse if they kept all the same personnel. Of course teams change personnel and players get better (or sometimes worse), there are more less injuries, etc. But basically, this is saying that when Milwaukee finished 14-16, it wasn't because they got some bad breaks--bad calls, a shot that rattled out at the buzzer, a freak bounce that caused them to lose a game, etc. What it says is that they really were a 14-16 team (or worse). So if you want to think about Milwaukee getting better, you start by recognizing that they were not a bad bounce or two away from being 17-13 last year. In truth, the opposite is more likely--they were a lucky bounce or two (or referee's call, or shot) away from having a poorer record than 14-16. If you want to ignore that in predicting them forward, fine, but it's not that the stat is meaningless, it just means you don't know what it means or how to use it.

Milwaukee loses just one important player, but that loss is a big one—its best player, Steve McWhorter, who played the most important position, point guard. On the other hand, they get back redshirt junior small forward Austin Arians, who missed last season with an ankle injury. That swap seems unlikely to make Milwaukee better, so they have to hope for improvement elsewhere.

Comparing McWhorter to Arians is an odd one considering they're completely different players, but I understand he's talking about scoring.

Actually, I'm not comparing McWhorter to Arians, and I'm not talking about scoring. I'm saying that if you take last year's Milwaukee team, subtract McWhorter and add Arians, do you have a better team? I think the answer is pretty clearly "no." So if the Panthers are going to move from 14-16 to something remotely resembling contention, you've got to figure out where they're going to get better. Adding Arians back in doesn't do it.

"The small forward should be Arians, a catch and shoot guy who cuts and moves well without the ball and plays solid defense. I like Arians, but again, I think Milwaukee fans tend to think a bit too highly of him. As a sophomore in 2014 he averaged 11.1 points and 3.7 rebounds while shooting 36.7% from the three. That's good for a small forward but nothing special. Moreover, his numbers dropped in conference play, where he scored in single digits, and his three point shooting fell to a pretty mediocre 33 percent. Like Tiby and Panoske, he's a good foul shooter. After a year off he'll probably be a bit rusty to start, but I expect he'll be performing at or near 100% by the time conference play begins. How good is that? If all goes well for Milwaukee, Arians will contest for second team all-conference honors. But the wiser Panther fan will temper expectations. I see him as a good player but not a likely recipient of post-season honors."

I don't understand this. So Arians, as a sophomore, scored 11.1 points per game. He has a full year redshirt year in between, and he's "not a likely recipient of post-season honors." The only reason I don't see him getting post-season honors is if he doesn't improve at all or only a tiny bit. And if he averages 11-12 points and 4-5 rebounds, he'd be a shoo-in for 3rd team all-conference. Oh wait, we don't have a 3rd team. (ghostofdylan and I on the UWMFreak board have long held the Horizon League limiting all-conference honors to two teams stops a bunch of worthy players from being honored. We don't even have honorable mention!)

Case closed, right? We don't have a 3rd team all-conference. Arians is not a strong candidate for all-conference honors. But I chuckle at this too because Panther fans before last season were asserting that he was clearly one of the 10 best players in the league. I remember thinking that I could name 10 better players off the top of my head. Same this year. Some Panthers are touting him as POY. Really? It still isn't hard to name 10 better players in the league: Fouse, Tiby, Peters, Fernandez, Carter, 2 Walkers, Felder, Thomasson, Yoho, Bass, and Hain are all better players than Arians. You could add some others to that list who are at least as likely to contend for all-conference honors--Jalen Hayes, Nick Daniels, Andre Yates, Tai Odiase, Carrington Love, maybe even guys like Jalen Billups of NKU, Skara, Adekoya, Lexus, Grant Benzinger, Michael Karena, the OU transfers. It's worth noting I've yet to see Arians appear on anyone's pre-season all-conference team. Maybe Arians will improve enough to pass some of these guys. But maybe not.

Arians was how we were beating Villanova as late as we were in our NCAA Tournament game in March '14. This is a kid who went from 6.6 ppg as a freshman to 11.1 as a sophomore and then got a whole year to just focus on his game.

Yeah, he's a good player, I think I made that clear. But lots of guys show that kind of improvement from freshman to sophomore year. Meanwhile, there is very little evidence that players get better with a redshirt year in the middle of their careers, and pretty good evidence that it takes them a while to get back into the groove of actual game situations.

I'm a fan, and therefore I'm very biased. But I think Commissioner's strong dislike for Milwaukee is causing him to short change Arians here.

That's what Milwaukee fans said last year, too. But as Bogey's Rick Blaine replied when the lugubrious human smuggler Ugarte asked "you despise me, don't you?": "Well, if I gave you any thought I probably would." I don't dislike Milwaukee. I know it's harder for most people to face indifference than dislike, but they just don't get me worked up either way. I'm sorry I'm not wetting my pants about Arians. Valpo? I dislike (and respect) you guys.  OU I dislike. Milwaukee? Meh.

I think we'll challenge for a title, because I think while our front court is fairly thin, so is everyone else's.

The teams most people are listing 1-2, Oakland & the Crusaders, have considerable depth up front.  I'd say several other teams have more depth of front, too, but that doesn't mean they'll be better than Milwaukee.

Valpo preview is up, by the way. You all should like it well enough.

Bringing up Springs' hand injury, I don't think you read what I wrote. I think you saw his stats, saw he missed a couple games, and figured he was hampered for a couple weeks otherwise.

He had a broken hand that was misdiagnosed as a sprain, and played with it for a couple weeks before it was properly diagnosed. It wasn't a small injury. It's also obvious that when he was talking about his hand feeling better in early January, his game turned around immediately. He averaged 6.1 ppg, said to assembled press the first week of January that he stopped feeling discomfort, and then turned around and averaged 14.2 ppg after that. It wasn't a small deal.

On Arians, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I'm obviously biased here, after all. But for fun, let's look at some numbers:

Darien Walker, who is preseason second team All-Horizon, averaged 10.7 points and 4.6 rebounds while shooting 36% from three and 39% from the field as a junior last season.

Tevonn Walker, who is preseason second team All-Horizon, averaged 10.3 points and 3.4 rebounds while shooting 34% from three and 44% from the field as a freshman last season.

Austin Arians averaged 11.1 points and 3.5 rebounds per game while shooting 37% from three and 47% from the field as a sophomore in 2013-14.

Then, Arians hurt his ankle, got to 100% in early December, and decided to take a developmental redshirt rather than play in a year without a chance at a postseason. I think your 'indifference' to us is clouding your logic.

[FWalum]

On Tommie McCune, I would note that Oakland isn't calling it a dismissal, but a mutual parting of the ways. I'm guessing he was on a tight leash and did something relatively small to get kicked off. My guess is it's bigger than missing a practice, but much smaller than cheating on a test or committing a crime. That's obviously just a guess, but if it was something truly bad Oakland wouldn't call it a mutual decision.

You are correct, I misspoke. Getting his degree would be the best thing he could do and I hope this choice allows him to accomplish that goal.

[wh]

Tommie McCune is out.

Wouldn't be a shock but what are the details?

http://opgrizzden.blogspot.com/2013/01/oakland-releases-west-virginia-transfer.html

Saginaw native and former West Virginia forward Tommie McCune was I dismissed by Oakland Wednesday for violating team policy having not played a single game for the Golden Grizzlies.

"He's a really good player," Kampe said. "Unfortunately, he's going to be a good player for somebody else."
McCune had a criminal record, which he and Kampe addressed at the time of his transfer.
"We knew he had some issues through his life," Kampe said. "I really like him and will continue to help him be successful whether he's at Oakland or not."
McCune reportedly left West Virginia as a result of a lack of playing time and said he didn't feel it was good fit for him.

The Article you are quoting was from his first incident, not this most recent dismissal.

This is what you get when you actively recruit "bad actors" for the sake of wining basketball games.  Dismissals, suspensions, threesomes, and now multiple dismissals with the same player.

Two things you can always count on - the sun rising in the east and Oakland embarrassing itself (and the league) with ongoing player behavior issues.

[a3uge]

Oakland embarrassed itself enough with its horrible court design.

[historyman]

This is what you get when you actively recruit "bad actors" for the sake of wining basketball games.  Dismissals, suspensions, threesomes, and now multiple dismissals with the same player.

Two things you can always count on - the sun rising in the east and Oakland embarrassing itself (and the league) with ongoing player behavior issues.

Yes. We all know that Valpo never has any disciplinary issues such as players getting caught at an off campus drinking party held by athletes from another team at the same school............oh, wait.........never mind.

[usc4valpo]

Yes, an off campus drinking party is truly a story to be reported on Eyewitness News.

[wh]

I can only recall 2 minor off-the-court incidents over the past 10 years - the incident from last season and the Logan Jones underage drinking incident from 2008. That is an amazing testament to Homer and Bryce. They have always recruited for character and spend as much or more time developing boys into men as they do developing athletic ability.

[valpo64]

Once again King Kampe speaks in circles trying to cover for his questionable decisions of the past.  Does it ever end with this guy?  What a joke!  I'm sorry,  but I can't give him much respect as these situations keep repeating themselves year after year.  If it's not one thing, it's another.  I'll bet he doesn't wear  many hats because he can't find any large enough to fit.  What a blowhard!  Some things never change!

[valpo64]

I didn't mean to detract from Commissioner's great pre-season reports, but I'm sick of these Kampe stories.  Let's just call the OU program The Kampe Rehabilitation Project.

[wh]

Re: 2015-16 Horizon League Team Previews
by Commissioner » Sun Oct 25, 2015 3:12 pm
Wright State
2015
11-20 Overall
3-13 Conference (8th)
RPI #267

2016
Returns 69.0% of scoring
Returns 79.4% of rebounding

Wright State's season last year was ruined by injuries. "Glue guy" Kendall Griffin was limited to just 8 games before multiple concussions forced him to hang it up rather than risk permanent brain damage. JT Yoho, the Raiders leading scorer and rebounder and leader in average minutes played, missed 15 games, including most of the conference season. The team's other starting forward, Steve Davis, played in just one game after December. Their leader in assists and number 2 scorer and rebounder, Joe Thomasson, missed 3 games but played hurt in several others. Reggie Arceneaux managed to play in all 31 games, but was clearly hurting and below par in several. Guard Chrishawn Hopkins also missed several games.

As a result, after a 10-7 start (2-1 in conference), including a pair of wins over Belmont, the Raiders season went south fast in the second week of January, losing 13 of their final 14, the last 10 in a row. (The embarrassment for us—that one win was over Detroit, in Calihan no less.) The silver lining to a season like WSU's is that there's no place to go but up. The Raiders could well be the most improved team in the Conference this year. That only means a middle of the pack finish, of course, but I look for Wright to be competitive and getting into the first division is very possible.

Yoho heads up the Raiders. He's one of the more interesting players in the league, having gone from a big guard hanging out on the wing and shooting threes at a 40% clip as a freshman, to a solid, 235 pound power forward as he enters his final season (after shooting just 33% from three last year, averaging fewer three point attempts than in his first two seasons). Yoho is a good foul shooter, a good passer, and moves well. His defense, which was lackadaisical as a freshman, has gotten much better. He's a legit pre-season All-Conference (second team) prediction.

Juco transfer Thomasson is Yoho's main compliment. With Arceneaux and Hopkins gone, Thomasson will likely spend most of his time at the point unless Rhode Island transfer Biggie Minnis comes through. Thomasson is not a classic point guard, but at 6-4 he sees the floor well and has a good assist/turnover ratio (third best among the league's returning players). He's barely adequate as a 3 point shooter, but scores by driving the lane or dishing off and cutting to the hoop for a return pass.

Minnis, a graduate transfer with immediate eligibility, will be playing for his third team after starting his career at Texas Tech. Minnis doesn't score but Wright doesn't really need him to, and he's a solid point and a good defender. Wright State is loaded with guards, and a lot of three guard lineup is likely. Expect to see plenty of Grant Benzinger, who will likely start whether its two or three guards in the lineup. Benzinger made the conference All-Freshman team after averaging 9.1 points and shooting a wicked 43% from behind the arc. Mark Alstork, a 6-5 transfer from Ball State, is also available. He started 15 games as a freshman for the Cardinals in 2014. And the Raiders many injuries gave Justin Mitchell, a 6-3 soph, the opportunity to start 14 games last year, experience that will be handy this year.

Up front the Raiders will start, along with Yoho, 6-10 senior Michael Karena of New Zealand. Karena's defense leaves something to be desired, but he's a very effective offensive player and got better as the year went on. Over February and March he averaged 12.6 ppg and 5.6 rebounds while shooting 59.8% from the floor. If Coach Billy Donlon doesn't go with three guards, the other starter up front should be the 6-8 junior Davis, who showed his potential with an 18 point game at Evansville before his injury. Front court reserves include sophomore Roderick Davis, who got in 5 starts last season, and Daniel Mortenson, a 6-9 freshman from Denmark.

It's easy to overlook the Raiders after last year's dismal collapse, but this team could come back quick. Thomasson is a superb athlete and the kind of player who could easily become a 16 ppg guy. Add Karena, Yoho, and Benzinger and the Raiders have a nice balanced attack that can put up points inside and out. There's a lot of depth at guard and the team has the perimeter personnel to play Donlon's type of defense, which relies on perimeter pressure and turnovers. The Raiders were the worst rebounding team in the league last year but should be better with a healthy Yoho and Steve Davis and a more experienced Karena and Rod Davis. This team can make some noise.

Projected Starters
G – Joe Thomasson, 6-4 Sr., 10.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.2 apg
G – Grant Benzinger, 6-3 Soph., 9.1 ppg, .463 3Pt%
F - J.T. Yoho, 6-6 Sr., 15.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.1 apg
F – Steve Davis, 6-8 Jr., 7.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg
C – Michael Karena, 6-10 Sr., 9.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg, .540 FG%

Key Reserves
G – Biggie Minnis, 6-3 Sr., 3.7 ppg, 2.2 apg for Rhode Island
G – Justin Mitchell, 6-3 Soph, 4.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg
G – Mark Alstork, 6-5 Soph, 5.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg for Ball State in 2014
F – Roderick Davis, 6-9 Soph., 1.7 ppg, 1.4 rpg

[valpotx]

Our team is the most talented since Detroit's 2011-2012 team?  Valpo won the regular season championship that year, so wouldn't we be the most talented team since...Valpo of 2011-2012? lol  Detroit got hot at the right time.  I like the comparison that ESPN had the other day, saying that our team was the most talented HL team since Butler's 2010-2011 team .

Also, in regards to off-court issues, it seems that a few people are forgetting the Jimmie Miles cell phone scandal.

[Commissioner]

Our team is the most talented since Detroit's 2011-2012 team?  Valpo won the regular season championship that year, so wouldn't we be the most talented team since...Valpo of 2011-2012? lol  Detroit got hot at the right time.  I like the comparison that ESPN had the other day, saying that our team was the most talented HL team since Butler's 2010-2011 team

The preview says "highly touted," not "talented." Detroit was generally predicted as a Top 60, if not Top 40 team at the start of the 2011-12 season. See e.g. http://www.searchingforbillyedelin.com/2011/11/7/2545894/college-basketball-preview-top-10-non-bcs-conference-teams. That's what I'm referencing. Hopefully (for you, for the Horizon) Valpo won't flame out early like Detroit did in 2011-12.

[wh]

Youngstown State
2015
11-21 Overall
2-14 Conference (9th)
RPI #296

2016
Returns 28.1% of scoring
Returns 25.6% of rebounding


The Horizon was hit hard by transfers this off-season, and one of the hardest hit squads was Youngstown State's Penguins. Guard Marcus Keene, the team's leading scorer (15.6 ppg) and a 42% shooter from behind the arc transferred to Central Michigan, while Osandai Vaughn, a 42.6% shooter from deep who started 17 games last season, also decided to depart. Also departing was guard Jalen Plummer of Romulus, who started 11 games early in the year but got into Coach Jerry Slocum's doghouse and played sparingly late, guard Shawn Stewart (who started 3 games), and another Detroit area product, forward Larry Johnson. It looks like another dismal season is heading Youngstown's way, and the big question is whether the Penguins have enough gas to stay ahead of newcomer Northern Kentucky and avoid the cellar.

The constant for Youngstown is 6-10, 240 lb. senior forward Bobby Hain, a pre-season all-conference selection. Hain averaged 14.6 points and 7.4 rebounds last season while shooting 51.4% from the floor. Hain isn't flashy but he gets the job done, and I look for him to marginally improve those numbers this year as one of the better big men in the Horizon. If he stays healthy, he should become one of the Penguins' top 5 career scorers and likely the top career rebounder since YSU joined D-I in 1982.

The Penguins will likely play a lot of "twin towers" this year, lining Hain up next to junior Jorden Kaufman, a 7'0", 250 lb. transfer from Oral Roberts. Kaufman's record at ORU was spotty—a foot injury limited him to 11 games as a freshman; as a sophomore he played in all 33 games, but started just 5. YSU needs a lot more out of Kaufman than he produced at Oral Roberts, but if he comes through no one will be able to match the Penguins for size inside.

The final starter up front is likely to be sophomore Sidney Umude. The 6-7 Umude averaged 10 minutes a game last year and looked good at times. Normally, I would expect to see Umude in a backup roll again, but Coach Slocum has indicated he intends to go big up front with Kaufman, Hain, and Umude. That will be as much size as any team in the Horizon is putting on the court.

Also available for front court duty is Matt Donlon, a 6-7 forward from Melbourne, Australia by way of Iowa Western CC, where he averaged 11.7 ppg. Donlon is a perimeter player, not a banger, who averaged over 2.5 three pointers made per game last season. With the transfers of Keene and Vaughn, and the graduation of DJ Cole, the third best three-point shooter on last year's team, Donlon will be an important deep option for Slocum. And given Kaufman's propensity to foul, Slocum may find he can't afford to keep the three big men on the floor at once, giving plenty of PT to Donlon. Redshirt freshman Bryce Nickels was held back to build strength last year, and should see time as a front court reserve this season.

It's a bit odd that Slocum is talking about playing his big front court, because besides Hain, what YSU really has is some reasonable scoring threats at the #2 and #3 slots. In the backcourt, the guy who impressed on this summer's trip to the Bahamas was 6-5 freshman Jordan Andrews. Andrews led the 'Guins in scoring on the trip and made his claim to a starting slot. Andrews should share time at the #2 slot with Flint native Cameron Morse. Morse, a sophomore, saw no action at all against a DI opponent until YSU's 15th game of the year last season, against Northern Kentucky, but by the end of the year he was a big part of Youngstown's rotation, averaging 7 ppg over his final 12 contests. Slocum could put both on the floor with a three guard lineup.

Morse is really a shooting guard but he could be forced into playing the point unless another Michigan native, Ypsilanti freshman Latin Davis, is up to handling the role. Besides Davis, the only other true point guards on the roster are a pair of walk-ons, junior Tyler Warford and sophomore Francisco Santiago. Davis is a quick guard who's stock was rising when he signed with YSU and who had a big senior year. With Keene's transfer, Davis finds himself in the enviable position--I think—of walking straight in to the starting point slot, with almost no competition. The other guard who could contribute is Brett Frantz, who was the running mate of would-be Titan B.J. Jenkins at Neosho CC last year.

YSU has size up front and some shooters on the wing, but the 'Guins really need a good point guard to get them the ball, so a lot will be riding on Davis's shoulders. I expect another long winter in Youngstown. And the Penguins won't be much good, either. (Ba dump). As a little post-script, the Penguins have a third Michigan player on the roster, Ypsilanti's freshman forward Devin Haygood. He could see action if things get rough (relative to the YSU norm).

Probable Starters:
F – Bobby Hain, 6-10 Sr., 14.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg., .514 FG%.
F – Sidney Umude, 6-7 Soph., 3.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg
C – Jorden Kaufman, 7-0 Jr., 4.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg at Oral Roberts, 2014.
G – Cameron Morse, 6-2 Soph., 6.0 ppg
PG – Latin Davis, 5-11 Fr..

Other Key Players :
G – Jordan Andrews, 6-5 Fr.
G – Brett Frantz, 6-3 Jr., 14.2 ppg, .399 3PtFG% for Neosho CC.
F – Matt Donlon, 6-7 Jr., 11.7 ppg, 44.3% 3PtFG% at Iowa Western CC.
F – Bryce Nickels, 6-9 Fr.

[wh]

The final team preview is for Detroit:

Detroit
2015
15-18 Overall
7-9 Conference (6th)
RPI #207

2016
Returns 64.3% of scoring
Returns 75.7% of rebounding

Here's some relatively random Titan stuff.

The Titans have not beaten a ranked team since January 10, 2002, when we beat #24 Butler 63-54. If the Titans don't beat Vanderbilt in December (assuming Vanderbilt is ranked then) the Titans will likely have their longest chronological streak without beating a ranked team. The current longest is between defeating #4 Memphis 71-66 on February 28, 1985, and beating #15 UCLA in the NCAAs on March 11, 1999. That 14 year string broke the Titans prior longest streak, 6 years between beating #9 Marquette 64-63 on February 6, 1979, and the win over Memphis. Before that, the longest was not quite 6 years between beating #10 Villanova on February 3, 1962, and defeating #3 Indiana 99-93 on January 2, 1968. (But note that during most of the 1960s the two major polls only ranked 10 teams, so the Titans played fewer ranked teams.)

The Titans have lost 24 straight games to ranked teams. The previous longest skid was 18 games between beating #15 Tulsa 80-72 on January 7, 1956, and defeating #6 Utah State on December 5, 1960. The Titans went 17 games between the afore-mentioned Memphis and UCLA wins. The Titans lost 14 straight to ranked teams between the 1979 win over Marquette and the Memphis win.

The Titans defeated #1 ranked Bradley 70-65 January 15, 1951. Seven weeks later we beat #2 Oklahoma A&M 62-52. A&M was ranked #1 in the coaches poll so we can actually claim to have beaten two #1 teams that year. But the inconsistent Titans finished just 17-14 overall.

Wins over Top 10 teams:
January 21, 1950, defeated #4 Bradley 67-54.
January 15, 1951, defeated #1 Bradley 70-65
March 5, 1951, defeated #2 Oklahoma A&M (#1 UPI) 62-52
December 5, 1960, defeated #6 Utah State (#4 UPI) 70-68
December 10, 1960, defeated #3 Indiana 81-79 (OT)
February 3, 1962, defeated #10 (UPI) Villanova 93-89
January 2, 1968, defeated #3 Indiana 99-93
December 16, 1968, defeated #10 St. Bonaventure 71-68
January 6, 1971, defeated #10 St. Bonaventure 75-73
February 26, 1972, defeated #2 Marquette 70-49
December 18, 1976, defeated #8 Arizona 70-68
February 16, 1977, defeated #9 Marquette 64-63
February 6, 1979, defeated #9 Marquette 64-63
February 28, 1985, defeated #4 Memphis, 71-66

Paris Bass looks like the next Titan destined for the NBA, with some predicting he'll even enter the draft after this season. I suspect we'll have Paris for at least 2 more years. Here's how Paris's freshman year compares to the freshman seasons of the other Titans to gain AP All America recognition since freshmen were granted eligibility in the 1970s. All of these guys were AP Honorable Mention All-American in their senior years, except McCallum, who got that recognition as a junior:

Bass (2015)
PPG: 12.4
RPG: 5.7
APG: 1.9
FG%: 45.6%
3P%: 35.9%
FT%: 63.8%
Blk: 1.06
Stls.: 1.18

Ray McCallum (2011)
PPG: 13.5
RPG: 4.7
APG: 4.9
FG%: 44.0%
3P%: 31.3%
FT%: 69.1%
Blk: 0.15
Stls.: 1.63

Willie Green (2000)
PPG: 8.4
RPG: 2.6
APG: 1.9
FG%: 41.7%
3P%: 38.2%
FT%: 81.3%
Blk: 0.3
Stls.: 0.7

Rashad Phillips (1998)
PPG: 10.0
RPG: 1.7
APG: 3.3
FG%: 42.5%
3P%: 34.3%
FT%: 84.2%
Blk: 0.0
Stls.: 1.7

Terry Duerod (1976)
PPG: 8.4
RPG: 1.68
FG%: 42.3%
FT%: 66.7%

Terry Tyler (1975)
PPG: 8.5
RPG: 7.0
FG%: 53.3%
FT%: 51.1%

John Long (1975)
PPG: 17.1
RPG: 6.5
FG%: 47.7%
FT%: 77.6%

Just a cursory eyeball, I'd say Bass's freshman's stats look pretty good. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Here's one: what was the toughest schedule the Titans ever played? According to Sports Reference, the toughest Titan schedule of the Post-WWII years (vis a vis the average D-I schedule) was in the 1955-56 season. The Titans were 13-12 overall, but just 3-9 in the tough Missouri Valley. Oddly, the Titans played just two ranked teams that year: #20 BYU in the finals of the Motor City Tournament and a win over #15 Tulsa. Other non-conference opponents included Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Penn State. Several Valley teams were ranked that year at different times, but only Tulsa when Detroit played them. By comparison, the next year the Titans played 6 games against ranked teams.

The five toughest Titan schedules:
1. 1955-56.
2. 1968-69. In Spencer Haywood's season, the Titans played 6 ranked teams. Detroit climbed to a high of #7 in the AP poll on December 31 after beating Temple in the finals of the Motor City tournament to open the season 10-0. But the Titans struggled to a 16-10 finish. The Titans schedule was the 14th toughest in the nation.
3. 1963-64. The Titans led the nation in scoring, but went just 14-11 against a difficult schedule that included an overtime loss to #1 ranked Loyola and losses to top 10 teams Michigan and Villanova. Dick Dzik averaged 21.7 points and 20.8 rebounds (third in the nation).
4. 1960-61. In Dave DeBusschere's junior year, the Titans reached their highest ranking ever, #3, after opening the season with back-to-back wins over #6 Utah State and #3 Indiana. The Titans lost to Terry Dischinger's Purdue team in their next game, then beat Nebraska and Gonzaga and were ranked #8 when they played at #1 Ohio State on December 22. DeBusschere, ill with the flu, simply ran out of gas. After scoring 10 points early, he took just 6 shots in the second half, missing all 6, to finish with 14 points, and the Titans lost 84-73. The Titans finished 18-9 and turned down an NCAA bid in favor of playing in the NIT.
5. 1984-85. Don Sicko's best team went 16-12, including the win over #4 Memphis. The Titans' non-conference schedule included road games at Michigan, Kansas, and Minnesota, and a game against Syracuse in Rochester, NY. The Midwestern Collegiate was strong that year, too, with Loyola ending the season ranked #14 nationally.

The toughest schedule under Coach Ray McCallum was the 2012-13 schedule, which included road games at Syracuse, Temple, St. John's, Pittsburgh, and Miami of Florida.

The easiest Titan schedule of the post-war era was the 1982-83 schedule under Don Sicko, but the Titans still went just 12-17. The next weakest?The 1976-77 schedule, when the Titans went 25-4, won 21 straight, and ended the season ranked #12 in the nation.

I don't have much to say about the upcoming season that folks on this board don't already know. Ray McCallum's seat is getting warm--a third straight losing season and it will feel quite hot. The young Titans have enough talent, I think, to get above .500, but how much more I don't know. The non-conference schedule, usually one of the toughest in the Horizon, is a bit easier this year. Bowling Green was good last year but with coach Jans's firing and the graduation of top players they are being picked at the bottom of the MAC. Eastern Michigan and Toledo also look to be down a bit after a couple big years. The Titans have just two power conference teams on the schedule, Vandy and Pitt, versus the usual 4 or 5. Vandy is ranked in the preseason poll. Pitt will be tough to beat but they look more like an NIT than an NCAA team, and an upset could happen there.

If things go reasonably well I see the Titans going 7-4 in non-conference play and as high as 12-6 in conference. That would likely get them to 20 wins with an opening round win in the conference tournament, and some type of post-season option. We could do better but it would surprise me. The reasonable downside looks to be about 5-6 non-con, maybe 8-10 conference for a 13-16 finish in the regular season. The key, I think, is less the play of Bass or Aaron Foster-Smith than whether or not the Titans can come up with a point guard. The Titans need rebounding, and my guess is that we start the season with Paris at the point and Aaron Foster-Smith at forward. But it wouldn't shock me to see Jarod Williams starting at the point with Paris at forward. In my dreams, Josh McFolley seizes the point position out of the gate. Of course, if Paris takes charge, that would be OK, too. I fear, though, we'll get quite a bit of chaos there.

I don't really think this means anything, but the Titans last season were 7-3 without Chris Jenkins, just 8-15 with him.

The Titans were 9-3 when outrebounding opponents last year, but just 6-15 when outrebounded. The Titans are not a big team, and are going to have to figure out how to cover the boards.

Jaleel Hogan can't get into foul trouble this year like he did last year. We're going to need him on the floor. It would be great if Gerald Blackshear made major contributions but I'm not counting on him this year.

Probable Starters:
F/C - Jaleel Hogan, 6-6 Soph, 5.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, .620 FG%
F - Aaron Foster-Smith, 6-7 Fr.
F - Chris Jenkins, 6-7 Jr., 8.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, .460 3P%
G/F - Paris Bass, 6-8 Soph., 12.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.9 apg, .359 3P%
G - Anton Wilson, 6-5 Sr., 8.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, .418 3P%

Key Reserves:
F - Gerald Blackshear, 6-8 Fr.
G - Jarod Williams, 6-1 Jr., 6.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.9 apg, .366 3P%
G - Matthew Grant, 6-0 Jr., 3.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.6 apg
G - Josh McFolley, 6-0 Fr.
G - Carlton Brundidge, 6-2 Sr., 2.5 ppg

[wh]

Well, the complete set of preseason reviews is now in the books and we're ready to rock and roll. Incredible job as always, Commish!  My best to the Titans for a successful season.

[VULB#62]

Concur.  Except for games with Valpo 

[Commissioner]

Since WH posts this thread, here was my non-conference wrap up, for you insominiacs.

Horizon League Non-Conference Wrap Up and Preview:

Except for a stray game that Green Bay plays at Chicago State on January 19, Horizon teams are now done with non-conference play. All 10 teams open conference play on Saturday in what, as usual, should be an entertaining and unpredictable race for the regular season title and seeding in the all-important conference tournament.

The Horizon League's "official" preseason poll of coaches, SIDs, and media predicted the following finish:
1.   Valparaiso
2.   Oakland
3.   Milwaukee
4.   Detroit
5.   Wright State
6.   Green Bay
7.   Cleveland State
8.   UIC
9.   Youngstown State
10.   Northern Kentucky

That was also the order of a consensus of 16 various preseasons rankings by publications, computer whizzes, and seemingly reasonable bloggers. udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/4849/thread.

The Horizon this year has the biggest gulf between the top and the bottom that I can remember, and the teams segregate themselves into three relatively clear tiers. In the top tier are Valpo, Oakland, and Milwaukee. In the second tier you've got Green Bay, Detroit, Wright State and Cleveland State. The bottom consists of Youngstown, UIC, and Northern Kentucky.

The Top Tier. In my preseason previews I wrote "For reasons that are nearly inexplicable to me, Valpo was not a unanimous choice to win the Horizon in the Conference pre-season poll. But they were a heavy favorite."

For the rest of the league, I noted in my Oakland preview, "Oakland is the trendy pick to finish second in the Horizon this year, and why not? I mean, somebody's got to finish second. It can't be Valparaiso, because they're going to finish first. It can't be Detroit, because since Valpo is finishing first, the highest you can pick Detroit is second, but Detroit always underperforms predictions, so the highest the Titans can actually finish is third. Green Bay and Cleveland State lost too much. Wright State has too far to climb, Northern Kentucky is too new, UIC too young, Youngstown State too Youngstown Statey. That leaves Oakland or Milwaukee. I'll pick Oakland." Specifically, I said in my Milwaukee preview "I won't argue if you want to pick them third," even as I confessed that "I don't see the title contender Milwaukee fans seem to think they have."

I've seen little that makes me alter those thoughts, although there some nuances.

I still think Valpo is the favorite to win the league championship. Even with the slip ups at Ball State (which has played better than expected) and Belmont, the Crusaders have compiled the league's best non-conference resume. Their 10-3 record is the conference's best. More importantly, they took two out of three of their big road games, against Oregon, Oregon State, and Rhode Island. The loss was to Oregon by 6 points in a game they were in until the end. Unfortunately, the loss at Belmont probably doomed their at-large hopes. They have no remaining margin for error.

How valuable Valpo's wins will be come NCAA seeding or at-large time we'll have to see. Rhode Island lost its best player, EC Mathews, in the first game of the season and, not surprisingly, has struggled a bit in non-con play (7-5). They need to emerge as the A10 contender that was predicted for that win to help Valpo much. Oregon State was projected as a middle of the pack PAC 12 team. They've played well so far, with an 8-2 record (losing at Kansas State in addition to Valpo), but they've only got one win over a top 100 RPI team (Tulsa). Their next 14 games are against teams that currently have top 100 RPIs, so we'll see what that win is worth to Valpo soon enough. Even losing to Oregon, at least when combined with the wins, is probably a small plus for Valpo—they showed they can play with the big boys on the road, and that matters to the NCAA selection committee, which above all wants at-large selections to produce exciting tournament games. But the loss at Belmont this week really hurts. If Valpo goes 16-2 in conference, losing at Oakland and Milwaukee, and then loses to OU in an Horizon League Championship game, they would finish 27-6 with an RPI probably in the mid-30s, probably with no top 50 wins (though Oregon State could squeeze into the top 50) and top 100 wins probably over Oregon State, Rhode Island, Oakland and Belmont. The only really bad loss would be at Ball State. That might get an at-large; probably not. So you can see they've got no room to slip up again.

Valpo has yet to play at full strength. Lexus Williams has recovered slowly from his ACL tear of a year ago, and has played fewer than 100 minutes. It may well be that he won't contribute much this year, but he still could. David Skara and Tevonn Walker have each missed a few games with nagging injuries. Darien Walker played through an ankle sprain for a couple games. And now Victor Nickerson is out with a hand injury and it's not sure when he'll be back.

Nonetheless, Valpo remains the deepest, most experienced team in the league, and the one that accomplished the most in the non-conference season. They are well-coached and always come well-prepared. I still consider them the favorite for the regular season title.

That said, Oakland appears better than I thought they would be. Basically, OU has performed at or near the top of what I thought it could. When I look at teams in the preseason, I try to figure out how many question marks there are—how many guys are being expected to improve substantially, how many guys are "promising" but have yet to actually do much; who is expected back from injury, etc. The odds are that not all question marks will yield positive answers, but some will. For Oakland, however, almost all the question marks have come in positive. All three of their transfers—Percy Gibson, Sherron Dorsey-Walker, and, since his eligibility in mid-December, Mellonhead Walker—have hit the upper range of expectations, and Kahlil Felder has been magnificent. Max Hooper has played quite a bit better than last year and Jalen Hayes is turning into a consistent beast. The loss of Tommie McCune before the season started was about the only wrong answer Oakland's gotten, but that was probably the least important of their question marks, and is rendered meaningless by how many positive answers they've gotten.

Oakland's play, including the narrow loss to Michigan State at the Palace, have convinced me that OU is more of a threat to Valpo than I thought in October. Having said that, however, Oakland hasn't done as much as some seem to think. They've got a couple nice road wins at Toledo and Washington, winning each convincingly. But those aren't exceptional victories (Washington, for example, lost at home this week to 4-7 UC-Santa Barbara and unless they surprise in PAC 12 play, is unlikely to crack the top 100 in RPI). Oakland's other six wins are against teams with a combined 6-46 record againt D-I competition. They've lost at Colorado State (7-5, KenPom #162) which has been disappointing this year, and at Southern Illinois (11-2, KenPom Ranking #112), which has far exceeded expectations. Neither loss, on the road, is embarrassing, but nor does losing those games scream out "Horizon Champs." The close losses to Georgia (on the road), Michigan State (neutral) merit respect, but they are losses, as is the game at Virginia. So I liked OU in October, I like them more now, but I still don't think they merit being picked over Valpo.

Then there's Milwaukee. The Panthers have a nice 9-4 record, including road wins over Wisconsin and Minnesota. Working against the Panthers' are losses to a subpar Murray State team on a neutral floor, a home loss to South Dakota, and a road loss to an awful Santa Clara team. It's fair to note that Wisconsin is also not its usual self, and Minnesota looks likely to finish near the bottom of the Big 10. I don't mean to take anything away from Milwaukee—those are very nice wins that I wish we had; it is always tough to beat a Big 10 team on the road; there's a very good chance that MSU, Purdue, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan or Iowa loses at one or both locations. I'm just trying to keep Milwaukee's wins in perspective—I'm not sure that either Wisconsin or Minnesota is more than an NIT team, and Minnesota, which is 6-7 with a #157 KenPom ranking, probably won't be even that. So again, while I'm higher on Milwaukee than I was two months ago, I still see the Panthers more as pretenders than champs.

A key to Milwaukee's success has been the play of point guard Jordan Johnson, a juco transfer who is second in the nation—to Felder—in assists (it's pretty cool that the Horizon has the top 2 in the nation in a major stat category). Pretty much everything has gone right for Milwaukee. They lost back-up guard Justin Jordan, who quit the team, but picked up Murray State transfer JayQuan McCloud this month, and he's played well in 4 games. The Panthers are capable of some big wins, but I don't see them having the consistency to beat out Valpo for the regular season title, nor do I see them with the same talent level as Oakland.

The Middle
The middle of the Horizon consists of Detroit, Green Bay, Cleveland State and Wright State. Detroit and Green Bay are dark horses to bust up the top three in the final standings, and all 4 of these clubs will be competitive.

Green Bay at this point may be the better bet than Detroit, if only because the Phoenix have won three road games, even if all three were against Ohio Valley teams. They've also got an embarrassing loss at East Tennessee State. Their best wins are at home against Akron and on the road at Morehead State. Carrington Love has emerged as a big time scorer, and Jordan Fouse remains the definition of "glue guy."

Detroit has looked good at home (6-0) and bad on the road (0-5). The schedule favors a fast start by Detroit—if the Titans have more than 2 losses by mid-January, they're through.

At the start of the year I saw Wright State as a team that could make the biggest comeback in the conference, mainly because last year was so ruined by injuries. They just weren't that bad. With JT Yoho and Steve Davis back from injuries, and some solid transfers coming in for depth in Biggie Minnis and Mark Alstork, a turnaround seemed very possible. But WSU has been hit again by injuries, losing Davis and back up guard Brandon Neel for the season. Guards Minnis and Justin Mitchell have missed several games. By mid-December I was ready to write Wright right out of the race, after a neutral court loss to a dreadful Cal-State Northridge team and road losses to mediocre squads from George Mason and Miami. But Wright proceeded to win their next three against Charleston Southern, Bowling Green, and Murray State. Granted, all three were at home, and Charleston Southern isn't any good, but BGSU and Murray State are sound enough. Wright crushed both, beating the Falcons by 36 points and the Racers by 16. So I can't relegate the Raiders to the bottom tier yet.

Cleveland State is just 5-8 overall, 3-8 in D-I play, but they've played a tough schedule, #35 nationally so far. Wins over Belmont and at Loyola suggest that they, too, could be dangerous in Horizon play. What should be worrisome for CSU are home losses to Bowling Green, Ohio, and Kent State. You have to win those games at home. They can certainly beat Detroit.

The Dregs. At the bottom of the conference we find Northern Kentucky, Youngstown, and UIC. UIC has some talented freshmen but they are winless against D-I competition. NKU's only D-I wins are over Norfolk State and 1-10 SE Missouri State. Looks like a long first year. Youngstown State had a 4 game winning streak a while back, but enters conference play having lost 4 of 5 en route to a 5-8 record.

Where Sits the Horizon. Of course, we all want to be in a better conference, or at least most of us do. Some even think we are entitled to it, because, hey, Dave DeBusschere played here, and that's just 50 some years ago. But for now we're stuck in the Horizon, so we need the HL to be the best it can be.

Unfortunately, this year that's not too good. Currently the Horizon ranks 15th in RPI, an improvement from last year's final 17th, which in turn was the worst for the Horizon in a long time. Unfortunately, this year's RPI is likely to sink further as conference play begins. That's because, although it's gotten better in the last two weeks, the Horizon still has an awful non conference record of 42-56 against D-I competition (Horizon teams are 18-0 against non-DI opponents, which doesn't factor into RPI). The Conference RPI has been floated by the fact that the Conference SOS so far is 4th best in the nation, and SOS is the biggest single factor in RPI. But the low winning percentage drags it way down. And once conference play begins, all those non-conference losses will keep recycling through each HL team's RPI, and be a major component of their opponents' opponents record, the 3rd factor in RPI. As it stands now, RPI Forecast sees the Horizon finishing 18th in RPI.

Oddly, the conference's weakness may improve the odds of getting a second team to the NCAA this year, which the conference badly needs both for prestige and because the money from Butler's two final four runs is about to disappear. With the bottom of the conference so weak, it should be possible for the top teams to run up glittering W-L records. That means higher RPIs for the top, and better looking wins when they play each other. Valpo benefits more if it beats a team with a 200 RPI and another with an 80 RPI than if it beats two teams with RPIs of 135 and 145, simply because that win over the 80 shows up as a quality win.

That said, it's hard to see an at-large coming. OU fans like to dream about it, but according to RPI Forecast, if Oakland were to go 17-1 in conference, losing only at Valpo, and were then to lose again in the tournament final to Valpo, it would have an RPI of about 50. With just 1 top 50 win—and that's a maybe, presuming Valpo stays top 50—and likely no other top 100 wins, OU would have almost no chance of an at-large bid. And that, of course, is a pretty optimistic projection. Doing the same for Milwaukee yields an RPI of about 65. They'd have top 100 wins over Valpo and possibly Oakland and Wisconsin. That won't do it, either. So, Horizon fans hoping for a second bid need to root for Valpo to run the table, or close to it, and then lose to their team in the conference tournament final. At least Valpo would have a shot.

Here are what I consider the 10 best non-conference wins for the Horizon this year, considering opponent, home/away, and the final score and dominance:

1.   Valparaiso 63-57 @ Oregon State
2.   Milwaukee 68-67 @ Wisconsin
3.   Valparaiso 58-55 @ Rhode Island
4.   Oakland 97-83 @ Washington
5.   Milwaukee 74-65 @ Minnesota
6.   Oakland 76-64 @ Toledo
7.   Green Bay 66-63 vs. Akron
8.   Detroit 76-73 v. Northeastern
9.   Green Bay 78-72 @ Morehead State
10.   Valparaiso 69-63 @ Indiana State

Not a very impressive lot.

Meanwhile, here is another bad stat: Average attendance in non-conference home games this year is 2361: a decline of just over 5 percent from last year's 2490. And that's with a decline from 58 to just 50 home games, despite adding a 10th team. Take out Northern Kentucky, and the 9 holdover schools still have a cumulative decline of over 3 percent.

Finally, here is how the Horizon did against various other conferences this year:

Read more: http://udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/thread/487/2015-non-conference-wrap#ixzz3w8uS4Q2n

[VULB#62]

Now I better understand why you are the Commish. It's not so much what you say but how well you articulate it. Much appreciated analysis.

[agibson]

Really nicely done, Commish.  Do you have the "top 10 non-conf wins" from past seasons?