Valpo in the National Rankings 2015-16 edition

[agibson]

Purdue leapfrogs us into #23 (for losing at Maryland... by only 11?).

Full disclosure - he was one of the only voters leaving them off his ballot, until now.

[a3uge]

http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/college-basketball-bracket-busters-wisconsin-florida-kentucky-LSU-020316

10 sneaky-good college hoops teams that could be dangerous in March


4. Valparaiso. Quick: What program has the nation's top-ranked defensive efficiency on KenPom.com? I guess I gave it away by asking the question here: It's Bryce Drew's Valparaiso Crusaders. The Horizon League power is also the top mid-major program in KenPom.com's rankings (and no, I don't count Wichita State as a mid-major program, thank you very much). Led on offense by 6-foot-9 junior star Alec Peters and his 45.9 percent three-point shooting, Valpo simply swallows up opponents on defense, forcing tough shots (with an effective field-goal percentage on defense that ranks eighth in the country) and simply not allowing opponents to grab their own rebounds (only two teams in the country are better on the defensive glass). The definition of reliability.

[talksalot]

I see the Coaches poll is out for 2/8:

Valpo in at 32... all alone with 14 votes

Others Receiving Votes: Notre Dame (16-7) 63; Gonzaga (19-5) 53; Duke (17-6) 40; St. Mary's (19-3) 28; Pittsburgh (17-5) 25; Seton Hall (17-6) 21; Valparaiso (20-4) 14; Louisville (19-4) 12; Monmouth (19-5) 12; Utah (17-7) 12; VCU (17-6) 8; LSU (15-8) 5; Saint Joseph's (19-4) 2; Stony Brook (19-4) 1; Clemson (14-9) 1; California (15-8) 1; Arkansas-Little Rock (21-2) 1

[talksalot]

and the AP poll comes out as soon as I save the previous post...

All alone at #35

Others Receiving Votes: South Carolina (20-3) 128; Indiana (19-5) 91; Notre Dame (16-7) 75; San Diego State (18-6) 22; Seton Hall (17-6) 14; Duke (17-6) 14; Gonzaga (19-5) 10; VCU (17-6) 10; LSU (15-8) 10; Valparaiso (20-4) 9; Stony Brook (19-4) 8; St. Mary's (19-3) 6; Saint Joseph's (19-4) 5; NC-Wilmington (18-5) 4; Utah (17-7) 3; Hawaii (18-3) 3; George Washington (18-5) 2; Chattanooga (21-3) 2; Connecticut (17-6) 2; Monmouth (19-5) 1; Michigan (17-7) 1


BTW... is it me?  I can't find Butler Anywhere on either poll... Gee... 

[agibson]

From 7/6 (points in AP/Coaches) to 9/14.  Increasing love for us among the coaches (not quite to our season max... which was probably 16 points?).  In the AP we're back up to where we were... after the Wright State loss.

Keep on winning...

[Kyle321n]

Who jumped ahead of us this week? (Teams beaten ranks via KenPom)

AP Poll Edition:
Texas-  199pts (up from 1pt), Beat Baylor (29) and Texas Tech (59)
Duke- 14pts (up from 6pts), Beat GA Tech (61) and NC St. (64)
San Diego State- 22 (up from 1pt), Beat Colorado St (164) and New Mexico in OT (100)
LSU- 10 pts (up from 0pts), Beat Auburn (174) and Miss St (102)
Gonzaga- 10 pts(up from 0pts), Beat Loyola Marymount (253) and Pepperdine (124)


Coaches Poll Edition
Texas- 69 (up from 7pt), see AP Poll
Seton Hall- 21 (up from 1pt), Beat Marquette (109) and Georgetown (60)

Texas makes sense jumping us. Two top 75 wins will do it. Duke wasn't going to be behind us long, I'm kind of surprised they weren't back in the top 25. LSU is on top of the SEC right now, they'll come down to earth after games against South Carolina and Texas A&M this week.

The ones who surprise me are SDSU (I guess having Steve Fisher as your head coach you get a boost?), Gonzaga (everyone's Cinderella!) and Seton Hall. I'm pretty sure we could beat all of these teams on a neutral court and frankly I want to play LSU with Ben Simmons, that would be fun.

[hailcrusaders]

Crusaders are #1 in the Mid Major Top 25 poll

Opponents:
16. IPFW
20. Belmont
23. Oakland
RV: Wright St., Ball St.

[78crusader]

College Insider ranks us #1 among mid-majors as of today, 02-08-16. So why do I think that more regular season loss will relegate us to "win your conference tournament or no bid" status?

Paul

[HailVU2014]

Interesting Note on This Week's AP Poll... Several Teams in the RV Section have just one supporter that gave them an "atrociously high" ranking.

LSU has 10 points, which is good for T-32, but it is just one voter that ranked them as 16!!!
Stony Brook has 8 points, which is good for 36, but it is just two voters, one is a 25th place vote but the other is a 19th place vote!!
St. Joseph's has 5 points from just one 21st place vote.
UNC-Wilmington has 4 points from just one 22nd place vote. (And...it's Elton Alexander from the Cleveland Plain Dealer, you would think he would care about the HL more than the CAA... However, his voting is always so strange, he added us to his ballot at #23 after the Wright State loss.)

I am just grateful that we have 6 supporters this week with about a 12-18 that have given us a vote at some point this year. IMO, this gives us a chance, if we take care of business in the HL.

[HC]

Stony Brook hasn't lost in nearly two months!

[agibson]

Crusaders are #1 in the Mid Major Top 25 poll

Nice! With more points, but not yet more first-place votes, than we've had all season. Interesting how different constituencies rank teams differently, e.g. how Gonzaga passed us in the big top 25, but here Arkansas-Little Rock is above them. And, indeed, their two-loss profile may start to attract attention nationally.

Opponents:
 16. IPFW
20. Belmont
 23. Oakland

I don't remember. How have the other Horizon League teams done this season? Surely a couple have been in the top 25... I actually have the records, but not the current motivation to check (not _that_ curious...)

[HailVU2014]

Stony Brook hasn't lost in nearly two months!

They haven't! But, if we are complaining how bad the Horizon League is, Stony Brook has even more to complain about in the America East! They haven't lost in two months, but their RPI just dropped to 64 tonight with a win over Hartford. Valpo only has 260+ RPI anchors in Cleveland State and UIC. Stony Brook has (#262) Massachusetts-Lowell, (#302) Binghamton, (#304) Maine, (#313) Hartford, and (#328) UMBC. Yikes! So, it's little wonder that they haven't lost since the non-conference. They just have to worry about the other Top 100 RPI team in the Albany Great Danes and perhaps a few other teams with RPIs in the range similar to our Wright State, Milwaukee, and Green Bay that could pull an upset. http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/schedule/Stony-Brook

But being biased here, our total resume is better than Stony Brook as they only have home wins against Hofstra and Albany. Not really Top 25 worthy, even with the two months of winning, IMO. See 2014-2015 Murray State for a great comparison. (http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/schedule/Murray-State)

[Valpower]

From 7/6 (points in AP/Coaches) to 9/14.  Increasing love for us among the coaches (not quite to our season max... which was probably 16 points?).  In the AP we're back up to where we were... after the Wright State loss.

Keep on winning...

But not too handily or you'll emphasize how bad the conference is and have them downgrade you.  [/catch-22 sigh]

[bbtds]

Stony Brook hasn't lost in nearly two months!

They haven't! But, if we are complaining how bad the Horizon League is, Stony Brook has even more to complain about in the America East! They haven't lost in two months, but their RPI just dropped to 64 tonight with a win over Hartford. Valpo only has 260+ RPI anchors in Cleveland State and UIC. Stony Brook has (#262) Massachusetts-Lowell, (#302) Binghamton, (#304) Maine, (#313) Hartford, and (#328) UMBC. Yikes! So, it's little wonder that they haven't lost since the non-conference. They just have to worry about the other Top 100 RPI team in the Albany Great Danes and perhaps a few other teams with RPIs in the range similar to our Wright State, Milwaukee, and Green Bay that could pull an upset. http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/schedule/Stony-Brook

But being biased here, our total resume is better than Stony Brook as they only have home wins against Hofstra and Albany. Not really Top 25 worthy, even with the two months of winning, IMO. See 2014-2015 Murray State for a great comparison. (http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/schedule/Murray-State)

Yes, at the same time Stony Brook has known for a while what kind of conference they are in. They didn't beat a team from their conference 4 times at the same time that team was in the national championship game twice.

[talksalot]

Early Afternoon....

Home Court Winning Streaks (after UNI beat Wichita State)

1. Kansas 39
2. Kentucky 34
3. Maryland 27
4. South Dakota State 26
4. UAB 26
6. Stephen F. Austin 25
6. Valparaiso 25  A win tonight we move to T4
8. Oregon 22
9. Oklahoma 19
10. Chattanooga 18

Defensive Points allowed per game
1. Arkansas-Little Rock 58.9
2. Virginia 59.6
3. Saint Mary's College 59.9
4. Louisville 60.3
5. San Diego State 60.5
6. Wichita State 60.6
7. Villanova 61.0    (60.9583)    TP 1,463 in 24 games
8. Valparaiso 61.0 (61.04348)   TP:  1,404 in 23 games; Hold WSU to 59 we move up
9. Old Dominion 61.5
10. Connecticut 61.5

Scoring Margin... I listed more than 10... because I liked the teams BELOW us !
1. Louisville +18.0
2. Michigan State +15.8
3. Saint Mary's College +15.7
4. SMU +15.4
5. Indiana +15.3
6. West Virginia +15.2
7. Villanova +14.9
8. Purdue +14.7
9. Gonzaga +14.0
10. Valparaiso +13.5
11. Arizona +13.3
12. North Carolina +13.3
13. Duke +13.0
14. Kansas +12.7
14. Oklahoma +12.7

Overall W/L Percentage
1. Dayton 87.5%
1. Maryland 87.5%
1. Villanova 87.5%
1. Xavier 87.5%
5. Oklahoma 87.0%
5. SMU 87.0%
7. Arkansas-Little Rock 86.4%
8. Hawaii 85.0%
9. Chattanooga 83.3%
9. Grand Canyon 83.3%
9. North Carolina 83.3%
9. Saint Joseph's 83.3%
9. South Carolina 83.3%
9. UAB 83.3%
9. Virginia 83.3%
16. Akron 82.6%
16. Kansas 82.6%
16. Miami (FL) 82.6%
16. Stony Brook 82.6%
16. Valparaiso 82.6%  a win tonight, we move to T9

[agibson]

I didn't expect it, but we still got one 25th place vote in the coaches poll.

A team can have a bad game or two, or an opponent with their number, why not? Tgank you coach! Name destined to remain unknown.

Our KenPom numbers took a hit but, to a computer for sure, it's only one game. Our defensive efficiency is in a virtual tie with Louisville, but we get the #2 slot.

[agibson]

Wichita State has also passed us, but now we're back in the driver's seat, #1 adjusted defensive efficiency.  (And right next to Notre Dame and their #1 offense in the overall KenPom, maybe we're at #26 overall.  But offense takes 125 to top the charts -25 points above average in 100 possessions- whereas defense is only 89.)

[talksalot]

Rodney Dangerfield:  "I don't get not respect"...

Love this headline by the AP and carried on Yahoo Sports...

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/quick-start-leads-valparaiso-past-western-kentucky-64-032641503--ncaab.html

If I'm a Norse SID OR the Hilltopper SID, I might have something to say about this...

[talksalot]

New Category !  19-way tie for 9th place... Consecutive Road Wins!

1. Villanova 8
2. Hawaii 6
3. Monmouth 5
3. Stephen F. Austin 5
5. East Tennessee State 4
5. High Point 4
5. Iona 4
5. Liberty 4
9. Alabama 3
9. Alcorn State 3
9. Arkansas-Little Rock 3
9. Army 3
9. Ball State 3
9. BYU 3
9. Fairfield 3
9. Kansas 3
9. Lehigh 3
9. Murray State 3
9. Navy 3
9. Ohio 3
9. Saint Mary's College 3
9. Seton Hall 3
9. South Carolina State 3
9. UC Santa Barbara 3
9. ULM 3
9. Valparaiso 3
9. Wagner 3

Defensive Points per game allowed...
slipped a little giving up 74 today...

1. Arkansas-Little Rock 58.8
2. Virginia 59.5
3. Wichita State 60.2
4. Saint Mary's College 60.4
5. San Diego State 60.5
6. Louisville 60.8
7. Villanova 61.5
8. Valparaiso 61.7
9. Cincinnati 61.8
10. Charleston 61.9

But we made up for it with a nice 16-pt margin today...
1. Louisville +16.6
2. Michigan State +15.8
3. Villanova +14.6
4. Saint Mary's College +14.4
5. SMU +14.2
6. Arizona +14.0
7. Indiana +13.7
8. Wichita State +13.5
9. North Carolina +13.5
10. West Virginia +13.3
11. Purdue +13.2
12. Valparaiso +13.0


Best Winning Percentage:

1. Villanova 88.9%
1. Xavier 88.9%
3. Arkansas-Little Rock 88.0%
4. Hawaii 87.0%
5. Grand Canyon 84.6%
5. Kansas 84.6%
5. SMU 84.6%
8. Saint Mary's College 84.0%
9. Arizona 81.5%
9. Chattanooga 81.5%
9. Maryland 81.5%
9. Michigan State 81.5%
9. North Carolina 81.5%
9. Saint Joseph's 81.5%
9. Valparaiso 81.5%

and lastly.. Most Wins!

1. Villanova 24 - 3
1. Xavier 24 - 3
3. Monmouth 23 - 6
4. Arkansas-Little Rock 22 - 3
5. Grand Canyon 22 - 4
5. Kansas 22 - 4
5. SMU 22 - 4
8. Arizona 22 - 5
8. Chattanooga 22 - 5
8. Maryland 22 - 5
8. Michigan State 22 - 5
8. North Carolina 22 - 5
8. Saint Joseph's 22 - 5
8. Valparaiso 22 - 5


A Banner day at the ARC!... I understand that the Athletics Department will make room for more of them, as needed.   

[agibson]

New Category !  19-way tie for 9th place... Consecutive Road Wins!

1. Villanova 8
2. Hawaii 6
3. Monmouth 5
3. Stephen F. Austin 5
5. East Tennessee State 4
5. High Point 4
5. Iona 4
5. Liberty 4
9. Alabama 3
...
9. Valparaiso 3
9. Wagner 3

A bit silly, but I guess we can claim a double share of the million-way tie for 3rd by virtue of ending Oakland's.  Otherwise they'd be at #1 with 9, after the UIC win.

[agibson]

Seth Davis is back to liking us (thank you Iona?) so we'll remain RV again, at least in the AP poll - last week was coaches only.

We're down to #5 in KenPom defensive efficiency.- lowest we've been in a -long- time.

[oklahomamick]

Seth Davis is back to liking us (thank you Iona?) so we'll remain RV again, at least in the AP poll - last week was coaches only. We're down to #5 in KenPom defensive efficiency.- lowest we've been in a -long- time.

Yes, playing Oakland who is one of the best offenses in the country did not help.  We still have to play Green Bay who has hit 100 points several times this year, including their last game. 

[agibson]

We lost our one coach, but picked up Seth Davis along with a friend or two, for three points (probably that's tied for 37th, with St. Mary's ahead of us for example) in the AP poll.

It really does feel like there's a ton of group think in these things, demonstrated by that coach (or graduate student assistant or whatever) dropping us after all his friends did.  We're lucky to have Seth Davis, always public, early, and often supporting us.

Thinking of the irrationality of the process, it seems absurd, but it'd be really nice if our KenPom defensive efficiency could drop back down into #1 ahead of Selection Sunday. Would just be a nice thing to have as a talking point in the board room. I have a hunch that his calculations care more about points allowed than they do about wins/losses or even margin of victory. So, it might be hard to do against Green Bay (though if we could win 85-70 again... not going to be easier on the road.  Might have a better shot at burnishing our defensive numbers against Milwaukee?

[agibson]

picked up Seth Davis along with a friend or two

Two friends, it turns out.  John Bohnenkamp from Iowa who voted for us, at least this season, only two weeks ago and today. And Elton Alexander from the Cleveland Plain Dealer, who we've discussed.

[agibson]

We've somehow also crept up to #12 on Warren Nolan's "Nolan Power Index". Our highest rank all season. I don't know much about it.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/schedule/Valparaiso
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/npi