Opponent Games and Scores

[talksalot]

Valpo's RPI is now 49

Yeh, that's happen with Eastern KY beats Belmont by 10... that's a two-loss hit for us.

[talksalot]

Wright State (15-10) 75Green Bay (14-10) 60
Detroit (12-11) 94 Youngstown State (9-16) 92

[talksalot]

to bring it together ....

Saturday 2/6
Evansville 83 Missouri State 64            0-1
Ball State 75 Western Michigan 71 OT   1-1   
Oakland 69 Cleveland State 57
Eastern Kentucky 88 Belmont 78  1-3 (two losses since we played them twice)
North Dakota State 62 IPFW 46    1-4
Northern Kentucky 75  Milwaukee 71
Wright State 79 Green Bay 60
Detroit 94 Youngstown State 92
Indiana State @ Bradley - just underway in Peoria
Rhode Island @ LaSalle - tied at 29 at the half
Chicago State @ Cal State Bakersfield
Colorado @ Oregon State

with 103 of 153 games in the books, KenPom still has us at the #1 Defensive team; #24 overall.

[VUfan]

RPI protects the big 5 at the cost of all else!    house Rules

[vusupporter]

YSU counts for one as well if you're counting that way, since we've played them twice already.

And that's why the hand-wringing over the RPI drops the past two games is somewhat silly. It's not as if the season ends today, it just so happens that our first two games the second time around have been against teams that are 7-16 and 1-19 against D-I opposition. And will probably drop further, since our next game is NKU (7-14 D-I record). Our schedule is back-loaded with the better records, and it'll all balance out then. As long as we keep winning of course...

[talksalot]

on the strength of the Toledo win over Kent State, we have slowed the skid... back to 49 (Toledo has played 5 HL teams this year, versus Kent only played 2)

[historyman]

Northern Kentucky (8-15) 75 Milwaukee (15-9) 71 a homecoming win for the Norse!

The Panthers sure got knocked off their high Norse. What that looks like.

[talksalot]

Saturday 2/6
Evansville 83 Missouri State 64            0-1
Ball State 75 Western Michigan 71 OT   1-1   
Oakland 69 Cleveland State 57
Eastern Kentucky 88 Belmont 78  1-3 (two losses since we played them twice)
North Dakota State 62 IPFW 46    1-4
Northern Kentucky 75  Milwaukee 71
Wright State 79 Green Bay 60
Detroit 94 Youngstown State 92
Bradley 63 Indiana State (13-10) 58
Rhode Island (13-10) 79 LaSalle 62
Cal State Bakersfield 71 Chicago State (4-22) 48
Oregon State (14-8) 60 Colorado 56

and the Morning after RPI:

41  Virginia Com    17-6  0.5904 SOS 65
42  Oregon State    13-8  0.5900 SOS 9   
43  San Diego St    16-6  0.5899 SOS 57   
44  Pittsburgh         16-5  0.5898 SOS 59 
45  St Bonaventure 14-6  0.5895 SOS 73   
46  South Dak St    17-5 0.5884 SOS 152   
47  Valparaiso        18-4  0.5874 SOS 180 
48  Syracuse          16-8  0.5872 SOS 37   
49  Davidson          12-8  0.5870 SOS 34   
50  Akron              18-4  0.5867 SOS 168   
51  Saint Mary's     18-3 0.5867 SOS 187 

Current Home Winning Streak:   T7 with Stephen F Austin @ 24
Defense Points per game allowed:  #8 at 61.5 slightly ahead of Wichita State, also rounded to 61.5
Scoring Margin:  #11 at 13.6, slightly behind Arizona, also rounded to 13.6
Overall won-loss percentage in D1 - (listed alphabetically)
20. Akron 81.8%
20. Iowa 81.8%
20. Kansas 81.8%
20. Oregon 81.8%
20. Valparaiso 81.8%

Ken Pom  Adjusted Defense:  #1, numerical tie with UConn, Overall #23

[talksalot]

The Week Ahead...

Sunday 2/7
Iona @ Niagara
Utah @ Oregon

Monday 2/8 - No games involving the opposition

Tuesday 2/9
Ohio @ Ball State
George Mason @ Rhode Island

Wednesday 2/10
Southern Illinois @ Indiana State
Missouri State @ Northern Iowa
Jacksonville State @ Belmont

Thursday 2/11
Milwaukee @ Oakland
Green Bay @ Detroit
Wright State @ UIC
Oregon @ California
Oregon State @ Stanford

Friday 2/12
Dayton @ Rhode Island

Saturday 2/13
Belmont @ Morehead State
Siena @ Iona
Milwaukee @ Detroit
Green Bay @ Oakland
Indiana State @ Missouri State
New Mexico State @ Chicago State
Northern Kentucky @ UIC
Oregon @ Stanford
Ball State @ Central Michigan
Oregon State @ California
Denver @ IPFW
Cleveland State @ Youngstown

[valpocleveland]

Got a case of the RPI blues? I know I do! The number of losses of AP 20-receiving votes cheered me up. Chance for a top 25 rating tomorrow afternoon although I still think we are a week away.

20 - UK L@Tenn
21 - Wichita St L@Illinois St
22 - IU L@Penn St
23 - Arizona
24 - Dayton
25 - S Carolina L@Georgia
26 - St Mary's L@BYU
27 - USC
28 - Utah L@Oregon St
29 - VCU L George Washington
30 - ND
31 - UM  L MSU
32 - Valpo

[HailVU2014]

Got a case of the RPI blues? I know I do! The number of losses of AP 20-receiving votes cheered me up. Chance for a top 25 rating tomorrow afternoon although I still think we are a week away.

20 - UK L@Tenn
21 - Wichita St L@Illinois St
22 - IU L@Penn St
23 - Arizona
24 - Dayton
25 - S Carolina L@Georgia
26 - St Mary's L@BYU
27 - USC
28 - Utah L@Oregon St
29 - VCU L George Washington
30 - ND
31 - UM  L MSU
32 - Valpo

Posted something similar over on the ESPN Bubble Watch Thread.

Would like to also add:
18- Purdue with a loss to Maryland
15- Baylor with losses to Texas and West Virginia
11- Providence with losses to DePaul and Villanova
8- Texas A&M with losses to Vanderbilt and South Carolina (Not saying that they would drop out, but I suspect they drop quite a bit...)
Also very curious what happens with Louisville, I think they would stay with SMU in the AP poll but I bet they are withdrawn from the Coaches/USA Today poll.

In addition, I do think that Duke and Texas will pass us in both polls as they both won two games and have the name recognition, RPI, SOS, etc. So that is a bit discouraging...

But I agree and think that it is still a week or two away from the Top 25, if we take care of business. Winning two this week including a revenge win over WSU will appeal to voters but I think that the following week, beating CSU, OU, and UDM would be even more crucial to our Top 25 hopes. We would have clinched the HL title, raised our RPI, and won 9 in a row, if we are 5-0 in that stretch. 25-4 just sounds awesome and is really our last chance to get into the Top 25 before the tourney. But, let's just keep this one game at a time and continue to hope for weeks like this where the fringe teams keep falling... Beat Northern Kentucky!

[talksalot]

Sunday 2/7 - may be a day to help the RPI...

Iona @ Niagara - tip off is 1pm central - Gaels favored by 10.5 - OU 145.5, Gaels won by 13 at month ago at home
Utah @ Oregon - tip off is 3pm central - Ducks favored by 6 - OU 145 - Ducks won by 18 on Jan 14 in Utah

[justducky]

We just went to 50. Will anyone say 51?

I think we finished last year with a RPI of 56? That was with a 10 times weaker OOC schedule. Last I looked our predicted ending RPI has stabilized at 42 from 29 yesterday? Is there no end in sight?

We now sit with a Warren Nolen predicted regular season ending RPI of 43. This is down 14 spots in 24 hours after a road win. They thought we would have a 16-2 conference record on Friday and that is unchanged as of this morning (Sun). From this information is it safe to assume that their projected numbers have no numerical formulation value and should be considered as fly by night seat of their pants? I am looking for some kind of logical explanation but losses by Indiana St, Belmont, and IPFW shouldn't come anywhere close to explaining this.  Help me out! I am in a state of befuddlement!

[talksalot]

so, I went to warren Nolan, and clicked on the W# column... and found the two teams in the country with one win.

                                RPI calc Rank
Chicago State 1-22     0.3713 345   SOS 193   < Oakland, Green Bay and Ball State on their schedule
Illinois-Chicago 1-19   0.3573 348   SOS 244 

There is only one team in the country with 21 losses
Bradley      3-21      0.4249 295   SOS 103  < Ball State, Missouri State (2) and Indiana State (2)

[talksalot]

Iona's up 20 at the half in Lewiston against the Purple Eagles...a win puts them 1/2 game behind Monmouth.

[bbtds]

We just went to 50. Will anyone say 51?

I think we finished last year with a RPI of 56? That was with a 10 times weaker OOC schedule. Last I looked our predicted ending RPI has stabilized at 42 from 29 yesterday? Is there no end in sight?

We now sit with a Warren Nolen predicted regular season ending RPI of 43. This is down 14 spots in 24 hours after a road win. They thought we would have a 16-2 conference record on Friday and that is unchanged as of this morning (Sun). From this information is it safe to assume that their projected numbers have no numerical formulation value and should be considered as fly by night seat of their pants? I am looking for some kind of logical explanation but losses by Indiana St, Belmont, and IPFW shouldn't come anywhere close to explaining this.  Help me out! I am in a state of befuddlement!

See the bee flys through the air and lands on the flower. Then it just magically happens. 

[talksalot]

Sunday 2/7 - may be a day to help the RPI...

Iona (14-9) 75 Niagara 61
Utah @ Oregon - just tipping off

Interesting note about the Iona game... the Team Bus left directly from their hotel this morning for the 6+hour road trip back to New Rochelle...the team is flying back to NY on a scheduled flight 90-minutes after their game ended... it's a 40 minute ride to the airport.  No time for Showers!

so... who wants to be on that flight?

that game did help the RPI...

South Dakota St     0.5884 45   
Valparaiso             0.5877 46 
Syracuse               0.5872   47

[talksalot]

Sunday 2/7 - a day that did help the RPI

Iona (14-9) 75 Niagara 61
Oregon (20-4) 76 Utah 66

South Dakota State  0.5883 45
Valparaiso               0.5879 46 
Syracuse                 0.5871 47 

and that's the end of the weekend for college basketball...
there's some stupid football game taking recedence

[justducky]

We just went to 50. Will anyone say 51?

I think we finished last year with a RPI of 56? That was with a 10 times weaker OOC schedule. Last I looked our predicted ending RPI has stabilized at 42 from 29 yesterday? Is there no end in sight?

We now sit with a Warren Nolen predicted regular season ending RPI of 43. This is down 14 spots in 24 hours after a road win. They thought we would have a 16-2 conference record on Friday and that is unchanged as of this morning (Sun). From this information is it safe to assume that their projected numbers have no numerical formulation value and should be considered as fly by night seat of their pants? I am looking for some kind of logical explanation but losses by Indiana St, Belmont, and IPFW shouldn't come anywhere close to explaining this.  Help me out! I am in a state of befuddlement!

See the bee flys through the air and lands on the flower. Then it just magically happens. 

Ok. Good to know! The dots are connected. You are suggesting that my question's answer has more to do with bee colony collapse syndrome (neo-nicotinoid herbicide related) and less to do with any precise mathematical logic. Thanks for the help.

[talksalot]

Closer look at the two opponent games slated for tonight...

Tuesday 2/9
Ohio @ Ball State - Ball State favored by 1.5 on Nolan, 2.5 on VegasLine, OU is 142.5.  Bobcats are 9-5 away from home, Cardinals are 6-3 at home.  Bobcats won the first match-up a month ago today 79-73 on their home court... and they have won the last 6 meetings between the two.   
Points in the paint-BSU 28,OHIO 34. Points off turnovers-BSU 10,OHIO 16.
2nd chance points-BSU 5,OHIO 17. Fast break points-BSU 2,OHIO 4.
Bench points-BSU 19,OHIO 14. Score tied-9 times. Lead changed-9 times.
Last FG-BSU 2nd-00:20, OHIO 2nd-00:06.
Largest lead-BSU by 8 1st-01:36, OHIO by 10 2nd-08:12.
BSU led for 08:41. OHIO led for 27:59. Game was tied for 03:20.
Officials: Kyle Ingram, Bret Wegenke, Jeff Spedoske    <<all three are HL refs we've had in the ARC recently
Technical fouls: Ball State-None. Ohio-None.
Attendance: 6703 (half-of the 13,000 capacity of the Convocation Center)
by almost 3:1, the largest crowd BSU has faced all year... oh, one exception... their season opener at Bradley drew 6553.


George Mason @ Rhode Island - Rhody favored by 8 on Nolan and by 13.5 on the Vegasline; with an OU of 132.5.  GM is 3-8 away from home (8-15 overall)... Rhody is 11-3 at home (13-10 overall).   100% of the money is on Rhody.  Half-time line is 7.5.  This is their only meeting this year.  Dayton beat George Mason on Saturday by 34... and the Flyers are next for Rhody.

[agibson]

I think we finished last year with a RPI of 56? That was with a 10 times weaker OOC schedule. Last I looked our predicted ending RPI has stabilized at 42 from 29 yesterday? Is there no end in sight?

This is WarrenNolan?  Another reason not to trust his predicted RPI?  It's not like anything really changed on the day of the UIC game. Everyone "knew" we were going to win it, and certainly knew we were going to play.

RPI Forecast has been stable for a while (our Sagarin PREDICTOR's probably settled down, etc.) at around37 end of season. 28 if we win out.

[agibson]

Oakland is ranked #1 in points per D1 games this year at 87.0with 2:41 to play at the Wolstein Center, they have 58... CSU has 52

AND their ppg average did fall... but they are still at the top:

1. Oakland 86.2
2. Oklahoma 85.8
3. The Citadel 85.7

Don't look now, but they're T3 in the country with a 6 game road win streak.  Shame about those three losses at home.

[historyman]

Oakland is ranked #1 in points per D1 games this year at 87.0with 2:41 to play at the Wolstein Center, they have 58... CSU has 52

AND their ppg average did fall... but they are still at the top:

1. Oakland 86.2
2. Oklahoma 85.8
3. The Citadel 85.7

Don't look now, but they're T3 in the country with a 6 game road win streak.  Shame about those three losses at home.

Yes, but it's against the Horizon League...........oh, wait!

[talksalot]

Tuesday 2/9
Ohio 72 Ball State (15-9) 69      Cardinals did not get off a shot with the ball and 14 seconds to go...
Rhode Island 81 George Mason 63  Covered the spread and the OU !


Still have some games out...with one-up and one-down...

Kansas State           0.5884 43   
South Dakota State  0.5883 44   
Akron                     0.5880 45   
Pittsburgh               0.5878 46 
Valparaiso                0.5876 47   ... Since Sunday, down .0001 and dropped a spot to Pitt
Connecticut               0.5872 48   
Syracuse                  0.5868 49   
Saint Mary's College  0.5860 50     

[agibson]

But I agree and think that it is still a week or two away from the Top 25, if we take care of business. Winning two this week including a revenge win over WSU will appeal to voters but I think that the following week, beating CSU, OU, and UDM would be even more crucial to our Top 25 hopes. We would have clinched the HL title, raised our RPI, and won 9 in a row, if we are 5-0 in that stretch. 25-4 just sounds awesome and is really our last chance to get into the Top 25 before the tourney.

This sounds more like it.

Maybe two dozen points after this week.

Maybe #26 or so after next week.

Maybe #24 or #25 after a Wisconsin road sweep, or _maybe_ after a neat run through two games of the league tournament.  (Though I guess there's no Monday for voting between the league tournament and selection Sunday).

I think there's every chance we could still be ranked if we keep winning.  But certainly no guarantee... (At least not until after the run to the Sweet Sixteen... or beyond.)

We can dream, right?