Opponent Games and Scores

[vu72]

Funny how Sagarin has us ranked at 42 this morning, almost exactly where we are in the RPI.

[usc4valpo]

Nothing would be sweeter than a Valpo-USC matchup. The armour would be amazing.


Go Saders and Fight On!

[agibson]

USC (lost 5 out of last 6.  If they lose a few more they are going to be out.  Also hurts Monmouth since they played them twice.  Oregon State winning helps us.  This is the biggest game of the night for any slim hopes of an at-large.)

Let's see... how does this work again? We generally want the bubble as weak as possible, so we'd like all the bubble teams to lose.

And we'd like our opponents to win, to boost their RPI (and our RPI, for what it matters), and maybe for the cachet of playing/beating tournament teams.

USC vs. Oregon State seems a bit of a conundrum. We'd like the top 50 RPI win, but in an ideal world maybe we'd like _both_ of them out of competition for seeds with us.

USC's recent form has been poor, but people seem to still have them around the 9 line, and Oregon State much closer to the bubble... 

(And, hey, RPI Forecast has added conference tournaments! For Oregon State he actually makes the two most likely outcomes as "lose out" and "win one regular season, but otherwise lose out" and both put them RPI 50+. Those two together are less than 50% of the pie, but maybe we should keep rooting for Oregon State wins...)

(As for Valpo.. expected RPI 57 if we lose in the semis, but of course it will matter to who. 57% favorites to win the tournament, expected RPI 28; better RPI than I thought!)

[usc4valpo]

If USC wins their last 2 games and win a game in the Pac12 tournament,  they will be in. Right now in Bracketology they are a 9 seed, which easily makes them at large bid.

This has been a great year for both teams.

[talksalot]

OK... SL17 ... let's see how it's going...RED - Not Good, GREEN -  Good,

Teams we want to lose tonight:
Texas Tech loses to Huggin's Mountaineers 90-68
Notre Dame  Loses to Miami 68-50
VCU 70-60 winners over Davidson
St. Bonaventure (I think St. Joe is in already)  - Bonnies 98-90 over the Hawks.

Butler Dawgs up 15 at the half
Alabama
UCLA (Oregon needs to keep winning - UCLA is not going to make the tournament regardless)
USC (lost 5 out of last 6.  If they lose a few more they are going to be out.  Also hurts Monmouth since they played them twice.  Oregon State winning helps us.  This is the biggest game of the night for any slim hopes of an at-large.)

Stony Brook (24-6) won their opening round game in the America East, 86-76 over UMES
Albany (24-8) OUT in the first round of the America East, losing to Hartford 68-59.

[talksalot]

using the current RPI as a comparison...

This is a pretty wide range...

Arkansas-LittleRock        25   3   0.5902   35   SOS   228
Notre Dame                19   10   0.5901   36   SOS   28
Saint Mary's                 24   4   0.5894   37   SOS   156
Wichita State                 22   7   0.5885   38   SOS   102
South Dakota State         21   7   0.5882   39   SOS   136
Tulsa                               19    10   0.5881   40   SOS   43
South Carolina                 22   6   0.5878   41   SOS   123
Akron                           22   7   0.5875   42   SOS   133
Valparaiso                        24   5   0.5867   43   SOS   167
USC                                19   10   0.5862   44   SOS   44
Virginia Commonwealth    22   8   0.5852   45   SOS   81
Providence                        20   9   0.583   46   SOS   54
Pittsburgh                        19   9   0.5823   47   SOS   39
San Diego State                20   8   0.582   48   SOS   77
Vanderbilt                        19   11   0.5819   49   SOS   41
Cincinnati                        21   8   0.5800   50   SOS   93
Yale                                19   6   0.5792   51   SOS   160
Monmouth                        25   6   0.5782   52   SOS   177

[talksalot]

OK... SL17 ... let's see how it's going...RED - Not Good, GREEN -  Good,

Teams we want to lose tonight:
Texas Tech loses to Huggin's Mountaineers 90-68
Notre Dame  Loses to Miami 68-50
VCU 70-60 winners over Davidson
St. Bonaventure (I think St. Joe is in already)  - Bonnies 98-90 over the Hawks.

Butler Dawgs 85-78 over the Hall
Alabama loses to the Razorbacks 62-61
Oregon beats UCLA 76-68 
USC BEAT Oregon State 81-70
Stony Brook (24-6) won their opening round game in the America East, 86-76 over UMES
Albany (24-8) OUT in the first round of the America East, losing to Hartford 68-59.

RPI Thursday morning, showing gain/loss in last 24-hours.

34   Oregon State   -2
   Pac 12 (8-9)   
35   Arkansas-Little Rock   1
   Sun Belt (17-2)   
36   Notre Dame   -6
   ACC (10-7)   
37   Saint Mary's College   10
   West Coast (15-3)   
38   USC   5
   Pac 12 (9-8)   
39   Tulsa   1
   American Athletic (11-6)   
40   South Dakota State   1
   The Summit League (12-4)   
41   Akron   7
   Mid-American (12-5)   
42   Wichita State   -5
   Missouri Valley (16-2)   
43   South Carolina   -5
   SEC (10-6)   
44   Valparaiso   -2
   Horizon League (16-2)   
45   Providence   -1
   Big East (9-8)   
46   Virginia Commonwealth   
   Atlantic 10 (14-3)   
47   San Diego State   11
   Mountain West (15-2)   
48   Pittsburgh   -9
   ACC (9-8)   
49   Butler   6
   Big East (9-8)   
50   Vanderbilt   -1
   SEC (11-6)   
51   Cincinnati   -1
   American Athletic (11-5)   
52   Yale   -1
   Ivy League (11-1)   
53   Temple   6
   American Athletic (12-4)   
54   Monmouth   
   MAAC (17-3)   

[usc4valpo]

Why Oregon State is ahead of USC in the RPI is beyond me. If you take the eyeball test, USC is better, and Valpo is better than both.

[a3uge]

Why Oregon State is ahead of USC in the RPI is beyond me. If you take the eyeball test, USC is better, and Valpo is better than both.

Remember, your RPI is more dependant on your opponents' winning percentage (50%) than your opponent's opponents' winning percentage (25%). A game vs Valpo boosts RPI more than, say Wichita State, whom has a couple more losses, despite having a better RPI. This may account for only a couple RPI positions, but it shows how looking at individual opponents RPIs can be misleading. Thus, raw SOS becomes a big boost to your RPI - Oregon State's SOS right now is 5, while USC's SOS is 42.


So yeah, RPI can suck. My biggest gripe is that a 351 RPI team negatively impacts RPI way more than a 251 RPI team - even if you win both games by double digits. There's probably a negligible difference between the winning percentage of a top 100 RPI team playing the 250 RPI team vs the 350 RPI team. RPI implies the same gap from 50 to 150 to 250 to 350 - I feel there's a lot smaller gap between 300 and 350 than there is between 1 and 50.

[usc4valpo]

Sometimes you just gotta stay away from metrics and do the good old eye ball test.

In football, Iowa had great metrics and people had them as a powerhouse, and then reality hit when the Trees went to work.

[covufan]

In football, Iowa had great metrics and people had them as a powerhouse, and then reality hit when the Trees went to work.

About 4 seconds after they went to work!

[usc4valpo]

I think Valpo seriously needs to at least win the semifinal game if there is any shot of an at large bid. I would really be peeved if they do not make it; I think they can pull an upset or two.

USC is a one and done team.

[talksalot]

From the CBS Sports website
=====================
Oregon State's Tres Tinkle will not play Saturday against UCLA due to a foot injury, Wayne Tinkle told CBS Sports.

Tres Tinkle suffered the injury on Tuesday night prior to Wednesday's loss at USC.

"Not looking good," Wayne Tinkle told CBS Sports by text message. "Need to get home and have team docs evaluate."

If Tres Tinkle cannot play in the Pac-12 Tournament it could be a blow to the Beavers' NCAA Tournament hopes. Oregon State is 17-11 overall and 8-9 in Pac-12 play.

Tres Tinkle is averaging 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds this season.

[talksalot]

Thursday, 3/3
UMass @ Rhode Island (16-13) 68 UMass 50


Drake @ Missouri State... Please Bears... win a game...8:30pm CT Tip

Others:

UAB (25-5) 77 Florida International 60... Blazer RPI 73

Appalachian State 69 UALR 63

SFAustin (Mid Major #7)  @ Northwestern State-Demons RPI is #345...SFA would accept a bid to the Horizon right now. - SFA up 6 early

Hawaii @ UCDavis; Rainbow Warriors are MidMajor #8, 9PM CT Tip

Cal Poly @ UCIrvine (22-8), 10:30CT Tip

[talksalot]

Last Game of the Season

APPALACHIAN STATE, RPI #285  BEATS ARK-LITTLE ROCK, RPI 35, 69-63

UALR FALLS TO 27-4

The Trojans still get the double-bye as the #1 seed (ULM is #2)

http://sunbeltsports.org/documents/2015/10/21/2016_Men_s_BKB_Bracket.pdf

[HailVU2014]

Last Game of the Season

APPALACHIAN STATE, RPI #285  BEATS ARK-LITTLE ROCK, RPI 35, 69-63

UALR FALLS TO 27-4

The Trojans still get the double-bye as the #1 seed (ULM is #2)

http://sunbeltsports.org/documents/2015/10/21/2016_Men_s_BKB_Bracket.pdf

For those that think our losses to Wright State are a disaster or narrowly winning both games in Wisconsin is unsettling... would you prefer something like this? You just cannot lose to a low RPI team like Appalachian State (whose best win is #179 Georgia State!) on the final night of the regular season. Not only must they win the Sun Belt to make the NCAA tourney, but I would even bet that a loss in the Sun Belt tournament could knock them out of a home game in the NIT with a loss like this. Must be completely demoralizing right before starting the heart of March Madness.

[talksalot]

Thursday, 3/3
UMass @ Rhode Island (16-13) 68 UMass 50

Missouri State (13-18) 69 Drake 67

Others:

UAB (25-5) 77 Florida International 60... Blazer RPI 73

Appalachian State 69 UALR 63

SFAustin 95  @ Northwestern State-Demons 55  SFA RPI Falls to 80, NWState went up to #339 !

Hawaii 67 UCDavis 65 ; Rainbow Warriors RPI is 88, UCDavis is up to #283

UCIrvine (23-8) 72 Cal Poly 62 , UCI RPI is now 66; Cal Poly is 238.  Anteaters play @ LBState on Saturday.

[talksalot]

and the Morning After... RPI of teams within our realm of ranking... and the team "Change" since yesterday (ie., Baylor is 20-9 (-1<since yesterday)

24   Baylor   20-9   -1   
   Big 12 (10-7)         
25   Saint Joseph's   24-6   1   
   Atlantic 10 (13-4)         
26   Texas Tech   18-11   -2   
   Big 12 (8-9)         
27   Arizona   23-7   2   
   Pac 12 (11-6)         
28   Iowa   20-9   -6   
   Big Ten (11-6)         
29   Saint Bonaventure   21-7   6   
   Atlantic 10 (13-4)         
30   Colorado   20-9   -2   
   Pac 12 (10-7)         
31   Princeton   19-5   3   
   Ivy League (10-1)         
32   Wisconsin   20-10   1   
   Big Ten (12-5)         
33   Seton Hall   21-8   -2   
   Big East (11-6)         
34   Oregon State   16-11   -2   
   Pac 12 (8-9)         
35   USC   20-10   8   
   Pac 12 (9-8)         
36   Notre Dame   19-10   -6   
   ACC (10-7)         
37   Saint Mary's College   24-4   10   
   West Coast (15-3)         
38   Akron   22-7   10   
   Mid-American (12-5)         
39   Wichita State   22-7   -2   
   Missouri Valley (16-2)         
40   South Dakota State   21-7   1   
   The Summit League (12-4)         
41   Valparaiso   24-5   1   
   Horizon League (16-2)         
42   Tulsa   19-10   -2   
   American Athletic (11-6)         
43   Providence   21-9   1   
   Big East (9-8)         
44   Virginia Commonwealth   22-8   2   
   Atlantic 10 (14-3)         
45   Pittsburgh   19-9   -6   
   ACC (9-8)         
46   Butler   20-9   +9   
   Big East (9-8)         
47   Vanderbilt   19-11   2   
   SEC (11-6)         
48   San Diego State   20-8   10   
   Mountain West (15-2)         
49   Arkansas-Little Rock   25-4   -13   
   Sun Belt (17-3)         
50   Yale   19-6   1   
   Ivy League (11-1)         
51   Cincinnati   21-9   -1   
   American Athletic (11-6)         
52   Monmouth   25-6   1   
   MAAC (17-3)         
53   Connecticut   20-10   -1   
   American Athletic (10-7)         
54   Temple   19-10   5   
   American Athletic (13-4)         
55   Hofstra   21-8   5   
   Colonial Athletic (14-4)         
56   Florida   17-13   -11   
   SEC (8-9)         
57   Syracuse   19-11   -3   
   ACC (9-8)         
58   Michigan   19-10   -2   
   Big Ten (10-7)         
59   South Carolina   22-7   -21   
   SEC (10-7)         
60   George Washington   22-8      
   Atlantic 10 (11-6)         

[usc4valpo]

SFA is a very well coached team. They are not as talented at Valpo but more fundamentally sound.

[talksalot]

SFA is a very well coached team. They are not as talented at Valpo but more fundamentally sound.

17-0 in conference including 8-0 on the road with one more road game @ Sam Houston State (RPI 170)

They have won their last 6 conference games:

By 38
By 35
By 21
By 28
By 26
By 40

They have the longest current winning streak... 17
They have the 4th longest current Home winning streak ... 28 (T with UAB)
They have the longest current Road Winning streak ... 8

Their 5 losses:

@#24 Baylor by 42
@#94 Northern Iowa by 10
N#249 Tulane at the Challenge in Music City by 1
@#84 Arizona State by 7
@#73 UAB by 10

[usc4valpo]

SFA plays in the Southland, one of the weakest conferences in the country. Decent in football, but not basketball. Lamar used to have decent teams, and NW St. upset Iowa when they were a 3 seed about 10 years back.

You can appreciate about basketball technique when watching SFA play.

[agibson]

Loyola's hanging on to a lead against Wichita State, early in Arch Madness. Up 5 with 6:12 to go. Not actually sure how much a Wichita State loss would help us... It might push their RPI below ours. But, most bracketologists and the AP and ESPN/USA Today voters seem pretty impressed by them.

Frankly, looking at their record, I wonder how big the difference is between a 9 seed and a 12. They've avoided bad losses (currently @105 Illinois State is their worst, Loyola at 240 would be their worst by far) but mostly have a bunch of wins against the RPI 90-130 set. They're 1-5 against the top 75 in the RPI, with their only win coming in Wichita against Utah.

Some of their losses were without VanVleet - but don't they have to prove they can beat somebody? Is this mostly an "eye test" team? They are KenPom #8, and have taken over our #1 defensive slot. But, they don't seem head and shoulders above us, resumee wise...

I can at least see how the mid-major coaches poll could make it a toss-up, or perhaps put us ahead.

(And now Wichita State goes on a little 6-0 run to pull within a point, 4:14 to play.)

[agibson]

And Wichita State started hitting their shots, and Loyola missing theirs. Like good teams and bad (or at least average) teams do, perhaps. VanVleet missed a FT, but WSU's probably going to win this comfortably... Up 5 under a minute to play.

[talksalot]

Friday 3/4
Ball State @ Northern Illinois... both are 19-11.  Cardinals are 10-7 in MAC; Huskies are 8-9 and are favored by 2 at home
Missouri State vs Evansville... probably the last game of the year for the 13-18 Bears.
Austin Peay @ Belmont, Bruins favored by 10 in the OVC Semi-Final in Nashville
Indiana State vs Illinois State... probably the last game of the year for the 14-16 Sycamores
Canisius vs Iona - quarterfinal MAAC @ Albany

Other Friday Games for consideration....

SIU 22-9 vs. Northern Iowa, both 11-7 in MVC
Yale (20-6) @ Cornell
Princeton (20-5) @ Harvard
Kent State @ Akron (23-7)

[talksalot]

Wichita State, RPI 39 coming in; Loyola 240 coming in...

Final:  Wichita State 66 Loyola 58... ramblers are put out to pasture 15-17 on the year.