Opponent Games and Scores

bbtds · February 01, 2016, 08:54:33 AM

Quote from: talksalot on January 31, 2016, 10:17:22 PMDefense Points per game Allowed

1. Arkansas-Little Rock 58.8
2. San Diego State 59.8
3. Saint Mary's College 59.8
4. Louisville 60.2
5. Virginia 61.2
6. Villanova 61.2
7. Connecticut 61.4

I sure wouldn't want to see any of these defenses against the Crusader offense. Yikes! Rebounding is a huge component of these defenses, I presume.

oklahomamick · February 01, 2016, 09:26:37 AM

I would love to play Arkansas-Little Rock. We would get the best of them 9 out of 10 times.

Kyle321n · February 01, 2016, 09:37:23 AM

Quote from: bbtds on February 01, 2016, 08:54:33 AM
I sure wouldn't want to see any of these defenses against the Crusader offense. Yikes! Rebounding is a huge component of these defenses, I presume.

Let's take a look at their four factors via KenPom.

1. Arkansas-Little Rock 58.8 ppg - Forces Turnovers, limits FG%
Effective FG%: 44.0 (13th in nation)
Turnover %: 22.2 (15th in the nation)
Off. Reb. %: 31.1 (226th in the nation)
FTA/FGA: 37.7 (191st in the nation)

2. San Diego State 59.8 - Blocks shots (4th in the country in block %)
Effective FG%: 41.2 (2nd in nation)
Turnover %: 17.6 (219th in the nation)
Off. Reb. %: 28.7 (118th in the nation)
FTA/FGA: 30.2 (41st in the nation)

3. Saint Mary's College 59.8 - Limits FGs and second chances
Effective FG%: 46.3 (49th in nation)
Turnover %: 16.8 (276th in the nation)
Off. Reb. %: 23.2 (8th in the nation)
FTA/FGA: 26.3 (13th in the nation)

4. Louisville 60.2 - Field Goal % and slow possessions down (347th average possession length)
Effective FG%: 43.0 (6th in nation)
Turnover %: 21.6 (24th in the nation)
Off. Reb. %: 28.4 (106th in the nation)
FTA/FGA: 41.0 (264th in the nation)

5. Virginia 61.2 - Slooow (350th average possession length) and Limits second chance
Effective FG%: 49.5 (164th in nation)
Turnover %: 19.7 (93th in the nation)
Off. Reb. %: 25.3 (23rd in the nation)
FTA/FGA: 34.4 (125th in the nation)

6. Villanova 61.2 - Limits 2 FG% shooting and Turnovers
Effective FG%: 44.1 (14th in nation)
Turnover %: 21.2 (39th in the nation)
Off. Reb. %: 30.5 (195th in the nation)
FTA/FGA: 30.6 (49th in the nation)

7. Connecticut 61.4 They'll block you (3rd in the nation in Block %)
Effective FG%: 42.9 (5th in nation)
Turnover %: 18.5 (160th in the nation)
Off. Reb. %: 28.1 (100th in the nation)
FTA/FGA: 34.2 (115th in the nation)

Now think for a second what you think our defensive blueprint is and let's take a look at our 4 factors

8. Valpo 61.8 You don't get second chances and you can't score inside (3rd best 2P FG%)
Effective FG%: 43.4 (8th in nation)
Turnover %: 19.2 (125th in the nation)
Off. Reb. %: 22.1 (3rd in the nation)
FTA/FGA: 37.7 (189th in the nation)

We're 70th in block % and outside of Vashil we don't really get that many. We're 67th in steal %, and 99th in 3P FG%. It's the inside defense and rebounding that wins us games.

talksalot · February 01, 2016, 09:52:12 AM

the UALR Trojans are stingy on defense!... granted their conference is weak (looking in mirror).

Points allowed to these OOC teams:

San Diego State - RPI 47 to 43
East Carolina - RPI 171 to 46
Tulsa - RPI 63 to 60 (Their only T100 win, 64-60)
DePaul - RPI 156 to 44

They've only given up 70+ twice, Arkansas State 76-63 in a loss and Texas State 77-74 in a win in Overtime (it was tied at 59 at end of regulation)

Rebounds you say?

REBOUNDS     734   739
Rebounds per game   35.0   35.2
Rebounding margin   -0.2   -

Their Leading rebounder has 5.5/game (115 for 21 games)

BLOCKS     78   60
Blocks per game   3.7   2.9

Same stats for Valpo:

REBOUNDS      972    725
Rebounds per game    42.3    31.5
Rebounding margin    +10.7    -

Valpo's Leading Rebounders:
Peters 180 total Rebounds 7.83/game
Fernandez 178 Rebounds 7.73/game

BLOCKS     93    84
Blocks per game    4.0    3.7

talksalot · February 01, 2016, 04:05:00 PM

Monday 2/1
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky - Grizz favored by 6 on the road on CBSSports; by 4.5 on WarrenNolan RPI 141 @ 249
Vegas Insider saying that 61% of the money on this game is on the OVER of 158.5

Iona @ St. Peters - Gaels favored by 6 on the road against the Peacocks on CBSSports; by .5 on WarrenNolan. RPIs 179 @ 216
Vegas Insider saying that 85% of the money on this game is on the UNDER at 141.5

Kyle321n · February 01, 2016, 04:25:43 PM

Quote from: talksalot on February 01, 2016, 04:05:00 PM
Monday 2/1
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky - Grizz favored by 6 on the road on CBSSports; by 4.5 on WarrenNolan RPI 141 @ 249
Vegas Insider saying that 61% of the money on this game is on the OVER of 158.5

Iona @ St. Peters - Gaels favored by 6 on the road against the Peacocks on CBSSports; by .5 on WarrenNolan. RPIs 179 @ 216
Vegas Insider saying that 85% of the money on this game is on the UNDER at 141.5

KenPom gives it this way:
Oakland 82-79 (61% chance of winning)
Iona 72-70 (55% chance of winning)

historyman · February 01, 2016, 06:42:58 PM

NKU knocks an 11 point lead down to 5 with two three pointers and two steals. 2:46 left in 1st half. Felder got the ball striped right out of his hands facing the basket and his defender.

bbtds · February 01, 2016, 07:39:48 PM

The NKU pbp guy just called us ValparIso after getting the name correct the whole time Valpo was at NKU. I hate him now.

talksalot · February 01, 2016, 10:08:14 PM

Monday 2/1
Iona (12-9) 75 St Peters 67
Oakland (15-8) Nirthern Kinticky (8-13) 74 (in response to the previous post)

Monmouth 0.6026 31 (jumped 7 spots)
Michigan .6021 32
Wichita State 0.6002 33
Virginia Commonwealth 0.5987 34
Notre Dame 0.5962 35
Arizona 0.5960 36
Valparaiso 0.5959 37
California 0.5946 38
William & Mary 0.5943 39
South Dakota State 0.5915 40
Texas Tech 0.5908 41
Saint Mary's College 0.5906 42

Louisville's win over UNC gave them a higher W/L % ... and knocked us out of the top 20.

we are still:

T6 - Longest home winning Streak (24)
#8 in Defense Pointed Per Game Allowed (61.8)
#14 in Margin of Victory (13.4)

For those enjoying the end of the Texas - Baylor game... the horns have no common opponents with us, Baylor did play Oregon earlier... Go Bears!

oklahomamick · February 02, 2016, 08:33:23 AM

Our RPI has dropped a little and so has our votes in the AP and Coaches poll. You would think we lost a game or something. Nope just two 20 point wins and probably another on Saturday. We will not have a chance to play a decent rpi until WSU or possibly Oakland. To be honest, using the word decent is being generous. We need a top 100 win. They year Green Bay lost in the HL tournament and didn't make the March Madness they were rpi ranked in the 40's. I'm afraid we are heading that way if we don't beat Oakland or WSU in Detroit this March.

vusupporter · February 02, 2016, 08:50:36 AM

Quote from: bbtds on February 01, 2016, 07:39:48 PM
The NKU pbp guy just called us ValparIso after getting the name correct the whole time Valpo was at NKU. I hate him now.

Our game at NKU was on the American Sports Network. Different broadcast crew.

bbtds · February 02, 2016, 09:05:03 AM

Quote from: vusupporter on February 02, 2016, 08:50:36 AMOur game at NKU was on the American Sports Network. Different broadcast crew.

Got it. I've watched games with that pbp guy, several actually, except I only spend about 5 to 10 minutes there and just associated that broadcast crew to the Valpo/NKU game. I knew it was the American Sports Network crew and the color guy was Jan Van Bretta Kolff that actually did the Valpo/NKU game.

talksalot · February 02, 2016, 09:21:16 AM

Tuesday 2/2
Rhode Island (12-9) @ UMass (8-12) - Rams favored by 4.5 on Nolan and by 5 on VegasInsider, OU 144... with 100% of the money on the OVER

Drake (6-16) @ Indiana State (12-10) - Sycamores favored by 11 on Nolan and by 12 on Vegas Line, OU 146...
with 100% of the money on the UNDER

Ball State (13-8) @ Bowling Green (13-8) - Falcons favored by 3 on Nolan and 3.5 on VegasInsider, OU 134.5... with 100% of the money on the OVER.

Bradley (3-20) @ Missouri State (9-13) - Bears favored by 14.5 on Nolan and VegasInsider, OU is only 122... with 97% of the money on the Over.

It's 6:00am....Okay, campers, rise and shine, and don't forget your booties 'cause it's cooooold out there today ..."put your little hand in mine..."....

Tuesday 2/2
Rhode Island (12-9) @ UMass (8-12) - Rams favored by 4.5 on Nolan and by 5 on VegasInsider, OU 144... with 100% of the money on the OVER

Drake (6-16) @ Indiana State (12-10) - Sycamores favored by 11 on Nolan and by 12 on Vegas Line, OU 146...
with 100% of the money on the UNDER

Ball State (13-8) @ Bowling Green (13-8) - Falcons favored by 3 on Nolan and 3.5 on VegasInsider, OU 134.5... with 100% of the money on the OVER.

Bradley (3-20) @ Missouri State (9-13) - Bears favored by 14.5 on Nolan and VegasInsider, OU is only 122... with 97% of the money on the Over.

talksalot · February 02, 2016, 09:41:35 PM

Tuesday 2/2 - our opponents go 3-1 on the night... only Rhody letting us down.

Rhode Island (12-9) @ UMass 61 Rhode Island (12-10) 56 OT
OU 144... with 100% of the money on the OVER... folks lost money on that one!

Indiana State (13-10) 63 Drake 56
OU 146...with 100% of the money on the UNDER... and they made money here!

Ball State (14-8) 72 Bowling Green 64 ,
OU 134.5... with 100% of the money on the OVER.... and they covered it...at 136!

Missouri State (10-13) 77 Bradley 71
OU 122... with 97% of the money on the Over.... and they covered it at 148

and with a couple of games outstanding... here's the RPI... "Movin' on up!"; Michigan is trailing the Hoosiers by 24 with 6 to play...so the wolverines will fall...IU's RPI is 50. With Northern Kentucky and Youngstown State both having played UM, that will also hurt us.

Michigan 0.6008 31
South Carolina 0.6004 32
Wichita State 0.5998 33
Virginia Common 0.5997 34
Valparaiso 0.5965 35
Notre Dame 0.5962 36
Arizona 0.5961 37
California 0.5958 38
William & Mary 0.5953 39

no long home streaks ended, no stingy defenses passed us, and our margin of victory is still intact.

talksalot · February 02, 2016, 10:10:16 PM

BOING ! Like I just posted....things changed with the Hoosiers thumping the Wolverines...in 15 minutes:

South Carolina 0.6004 31
Wichita State 0.5998 32
Virginia Common 0.5997 33
Arizona 0.5968 34
Valparaiso 0.5964 35 for about 3 minutes we were tied with ND...then Duke went final and they fell a tad.
Notre Dame 0.5961 36
California 0.5953 37
William & Mary .5953 38
Florida State 0.5935 39
Indiana 0.5922 40 Jumped 10 spots from 50
Michigan 0.5918 41 Fell 10 spots from 31

talksalot · February 03, 2016, 03:02:59 PM

Just to bring this back from an earlier post...

Wednesday 2/3
No Games involving our opponents

so... come back tomorrow night as we follow all of the games... and there are a lot of 'em! Perhaps you can use this night to prepare you sample tray of munchies for tomorrow night, in anticipation of the super bowl on Sunday.

talksalot · February 03, 2016, 09:28:59 PM

No, Valpo's opponents did not play... but other teams did...

Wichita State 0.5986 31
Virginia Common 0.5972 32
Notre Dame 0.5966 33
Valparaiso 0.5963 34 our raw number fell .0001 but we picked up a spot
Arizona 0.5957 35
William & Mary 0.5943 36
California 0.5942 37
Florida State 0.5938 38
Saint Joseph's 0.5930 39

the above was 9:18pm
the below was 9:23pm

Pittsburgh 0.5988 30
Wichita State 0.5981 31
Virginia Common 0.5972 32
Valparaiso 0.5963 33
Notre Dame 0.5961 34 The Irish dropped .0005 and we slid past them...
Arizona 0.5957 35
William & Mary 0.5943 36
California 0.5942 37
Florida State 0.5938 38
Saint Joseph's 0.5934 39

and under the heading... but what have you done for me lately... despite the 25 point drubbing IU put on Blue yesterday...

Michigan 0.5915 40 Wolverines are 16-6
Indiana 0.5911 43 Hoosiers are 19-4

talksalot · February 04, 2016, 08:03:31 AM

Minor shifting around the RPI 30s range after the west coast games went final...

Providence      0.6005   30
Pittsburgh      0.5987   31
Virginia Common   0.5972   32
Arizona      0.5966   33
Valparaiso     0.5961   34
Notre Dame      0.5960   35
William & Mary   0.5943   36
California      0.5937   37
Florida State      0.5936   38
Saint Joseph's      0.5934   39

Wichita State 27, Monmouth 28 for the MidMajor fans...
Michigan 43 and Indiana 45 for the B1G fans...
UIC... 349 as Florida A&M takes over at #350! and they are only .0001 behind Prairie View A&M for #348! The Flame RPI should go up on Saturday playing us.

talksalot · February 04, 2016, 08:21:25 AM

Thursday 2/4... lots of action today... Nolan and Vegas odds.

Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky - Nolan has the Phoenix with a 56% chance of winning and a 2 point favorite; Vegas GB -3, OU 162.5
Milwaukee @ Wright State - Nolan has the Panthers with a 51% chance of winning and a .5 point favorite; Vegas WSU -1.5, OU 135.5
Detroit @ Cleveland State - Nolan has the Titans with a 51% chance of winning and a 2.5 point favorite; Vegas UDM -2, OU 150
Oakland @ Youngstown State - Nolan has the Grizz with a 65% chance of winning and a 5.5 point favorite; Vegas OAK -11 OU 175
Morehead State @ Belmont - Nolan has the Bruins with a 65% chance of winning and a 5.0 point favorite; Vegas BEL -8 OU 152
IPFW @ South Dakota - Nolan has the Mastodons with a 68% chance of winning and a 6.0 point favorite; Vegas SODAK -2 OU 155
Colorado @ Oregon - Nolan has the Ducks with a 65% chance of winning and a 5.0 point favorite; Vegas ORE -10 OU 153
Chicago State @ Seattle - Nolan has the Redhawks with a 78% chance of winning and an 11 point favorite; Vegas has no line
Utah @ Oregon State - Nolan has the Utes with a 73% chance of winning and an 8.5 point favorite; Vegas UTA -3.5 OU 140.5

If you haven't already done so... you can show our predictions for the HL games this weekend on this thread... (shameless plug)
OK, another chance to put your vote where your mouth is...HL games this week

talksalot · February 04, 2016, 09:45:02 PM

Green Bay (14-9) 85 Northern Kentucky (8-14) 78... Covered the OU by .5 ! projected OU 162.5
Wright State (14-10) 84 Milwaukee (15-8) 83... blew out the OU project at 135.5
Detroit (11-11) 71 Cleveland State (7-17) 63 ... way under the OU projected at 150
Oakland (16-8) 107 Youngstown State (9-15) 85... way over the projected OU 175
Belmont (17-7) 73 Morehead State 67 well under the projected OU of 152
IPFW (19-6) 95 South Dakota 82 .. way over the projected OU at 155

So Far a pretty good night for the ol' opponents... but the RPI has risen numerically, but stayed at #34

Pittsburgh 0.5987 32
Virginia Common 0.5979 33
Valparaiso 0.5969 34
Arizona 0.5964 35
Notre Dame 0.5957 36

Colorado @ Oregon (19-4) 76 Colorado 56 ... not close to the projected OU of 153

Valpo is up .0011 from last night's final, still at #34
0.5972 34 after the Oregon game finished.

.... and there are still these games going on:

Chicago State @ Seattle - Nolan has the Redhawks with a 78% chance of winning and an 11 point favorite; Vegas has no line - [REDHAWKS UP 8 AT THE HALF)

Utah @ Oregon State - Nolan has the Utes with a 73% chance of winning and an 8.5 point favorite; Vegas UTA -3.5 OU 140.5 [TIP OFF AT 10PM CENTRAL]

oklahomamick · February 04, 2016, 10:04:37 PM

BYU beat St. Mary's

talksalot · February 04, 2016, 10:10:01 PM

Quote from: oklahomamick on February 04, 2016, 10:04:37 PMBYU beat St. Mary's

Ranked 45 and 47 respectively...but nice to see the Gaels... will probably move us "permanently" behind the Shockers in the MMT25 ranking...

and since BYU also beat Belmont earlier, helps out the ol' OOWP.

a3uge · February 05, 2016, 12:04:47 AM

Oregon State fouled on a 3 with 2.2 left up by 2. Horrendous call. Brutal.

And omg Oregon State got fouled on a half court shot!

The foul occurred at 0.2 seconds left, but the ref didn't get his arm up...

Okay 3 free throws...

And he hits them all!

Oregon State wins - crazy game... Everyone should watch the last 2 min on espn3.

FWalum · February 05, 2016, 12:14:32 AM

Oregon State Beats the Utes! That should help us some.

talksalot · February 05, 2016, 07:57:06 AM

Green Bay (14-9) 85 Northern Kentucky (8-14) 78... Covered the OU by .5 ! projected OU 162.5
Wright State (14-10) 84 Milwaukee (15-8) 83... blew out the OU project at 135.5
Detroit (11-11) 71 Cleveland State (7-17) 63 ... way under the OU projected at 150
Oakland (16-8) 107 Youngstown State (9-15) 85... way over the projected OU 175
Belmont (17-7) 73 Morehead State 67 well under the projected OU of 152
IPFW (19-6) 95 South Dakota 82 .. way over the projected OU at 155

So Far a pretty good night for the ol' opponents... but the RPI has risen numerically, but stayed at #34

Pittsburgh 0.5987 32
Virginia Common 0.5979 33
Valparaiso 0.5969 34
Arizona 0.5964 35
Notre Dame 0.5957 36

Oregon (19-4) 76 Colorado 56 ... not close to the projected OU of 153

Valpo is up .0011 from last night's final, still at #34
0.5972 34 after the Oregon game finished.

and these west-coast games...

Seattle 59 Chicago State (4-21) 56

Oregon State (13-8) 71 Utah 69 ... I watched the play on SportsCenter this morning, and it looked like a good call to me... stupid mistake by the Utah guy...

and it did help the RPI... just a little bit mathematically, and not enough to catch VCU...the SOS climbed to 145

William & Mary      0.5992   30
Pittsburgh        0.5987   31
South Carolina      0.5984   32
Virginia Common   0.5979   33
Valparaiso        0.5976   34
Arizona       0.5963   35
Notre Dame     0.5957   36
Saint Joseph's      0.5938   37
Florida State      0.5927   38
South Dakota State      0.5911   39