Game 6: @ Oregon 11/22

VULB#62 · November 20, 2015, 08:22:04 AM

Besides being ranked/RV, what can we expect to see from Oregon?

vu72 · November 20, 2015, 08:35:05 AM

Quote from: VULB#62 on November 20, 2015, 08:22:04 AM
Besides being ranked/RV, what can we expect to see from Oregon?

They are big and experienced. We should have a very complete game plan in place seeing that Scott will certainly give Bryce all they keys for a win. It will take a very solid game from us to win at their place.

agibson · November 20, 2015, 08:57:14 AM

Anybody know of a place in Valoo , perhaps a VU- friendly establishment, that will be showing the game with sound?

Apart from the Super Bowl and such, is that even a thing? I know there are soccer bars (maybe not in Valpo) that will show some games with sound.

I suppose there will be NFL, maybe NHL games going on.

I guess the PAC 12 network isn't -so- common in Indiana.

Or, I've not checked, do they have any reasonable streaming option?

agibson · November 20, 2015, 09:32:17 AM

Quote from: VULB#62 on November 20, 2015, 08:22:04 AMwhat can we expect to see from Oregon?

I don't know when Pomeroy would suggest that his ratings mean anything, but, they're amusing to look at even this early.

He's got Oregon 24th at the moment, behind Louisville and Notre Dame, ahead of the likes of Wisconsin, Maryland, Butler. With us at 29th.

Oregon's offensive rating (adjusted for number of possessions, "tempo free"), at 109.9 (27th in the country), defense 93.7 (22nd in the country). Ours at 107.0 (58th in the country), defense at 92.0 (8th in the country). If I remember Pomeroy's definitions roughly correctly that would be a swing of... a point or less to Oregon, on a neutral court? But, home court advantage is big.

Massey has Oregon #19, us 44.(Without last night's results? But I'm not sure that matters much). Giving us a 21% chance to win the game. Oregon 9 point favorites?

RealTimeRPI's prediction engine (not, I think, based only on RPI) makes Oregon 7 point favorites, giving Valpo a 33% chance to win.

agibson · November 20, 2015, 09:41:10 AM

For what extremely little it's worth, Warren Nolan has Oregon T1 in RPI at the moment. Oakland at T4. We're way down at T11.

valpo4life · November 20, 2015, 09:46:23 AM

They are big and experienced.

[/quote]

I watched their game against Baylor and they only had one player taller than 6'7" (Boucher, listed at 6'10", 200 lbs). But if your definition of big is strong/athletic and not about height, they have those guys. But not many, their rotation is very small currently with six guys averaging over 25 minutes per game. If we can get to the rim a lot and draw some fouls, we'll have a chance to challenge that depth. Their freshman Dorsey is the man to watch/stop, he can do it all. Limiting him will go a long way and I think we have the guys to do it. The more I think about this game the more I think we have a real chance at getting this big time win.

covufan · November 20, 2015, 10:15:13 AM

Quote from: agibson on November 20, 2015, 09:32:17 AM
Quote from: VULB#62 on November 20, 2015, 08:22:04 AMwhat can we expect to see from Oregon?

I don't know when Pomeroy would suggest that his ratings mean anything, but, they're amusing to look at even this early.

He's got Oregon 24th at the moment, behind Louisville and Notre Dame, ahead of the likes of Wisconsin, Maryland, Butler. With us at 29th.

Oregon's offensive rating (adjusted for number of possessions, "tempo free"), at 109.9 (27th in the country), defense 93.7 (22nd in the country). Ours at 107.0 (58th in the country), defense at 92.0 (8th in the country). If I remember Pomeroy's definitions roughly correctly that would be a swing of... a point or less to Oregon, on a neutral court? But, home court advantage is big.

Massey has Oregon #19, us 44.(Without last night's results? But I'm not sure that matters much). Giving us a 21% chance to win the game. Oregon 9 point favorites?

RealTimeRPI's prediction engine (not, I think, based only on RPI) makes Oregon 7 point favorites, giving Valpo a 33% chance to win.

I show that RealTimeRPI's engine (RTR GAMER) at 77-72 Oregon.

Teamrankings has our chances at winning at 30.1%. They also have this as our only predicted loss.

Sagarin has us at 7 point dogs.

I believe Pomeroy (have not paid for premium package) would predict the outcome at 73-71, Oregon.

If everyone was healthy, I'd say we have a good chance. I think we can beat them, but we need better than average games from everyone. We need to keep Oregon off the offensive boards.

Valpo 75
Ore 73

justducky · November 20, 2015, 10:38:33 AM

I still think that Scott and Baylor playing there a week before us is more than the most improbable of coincidences. Thoughts?

Baylor had to play a lot of man defense to get back in the game and if their zone wasn't holding Oregon in check then I wouldn't expect to see too much zone from us. Our man defense will need to be quick and they may be able to pull Vashil further from the basket than we would like. This could be anywhere from a narrow win to a 13 point loss but I see no reason why it shouldn't be very competitive.

valporun · November 20, 2015, 10:43:15 AM

We need to play under control and not get too fast moving that we turn the ball over, and let the Ducks run on us.

VULB#62 · November 20, 2015, 11:00:30 AM

Also got to take 'good' threes -- and make them. I think our D will frustrate them a bit.

VUOR63 · November 20, 2015, 11:10:41 AM

I'm concerned about not being able to put a pea in the ocean. If Valpo comes out shooting effeciently, I see this going in the Crusader's direction.

FWalum · November 20, 2015, 11:17:35 AM

Watched the Baylor Oregon game and was very impressed with Oregon. Baylor made some extremely boneheaded plays that affected the outcome, but I thought Oregon was the better team. This will be an extremely difficult game to win. They were very physical with Baylor and ran their zone offense brilliantly causing the switch to man that Baylor did not handle well. Our man defense is better than Baylor's so we may be able to keep them from breaking the game wide open. We will have to shoot better and make better decisions (I am talking about taking the shot rather than making that "unselfish" pass that doesn't gain any advantage) than we have in any of our previous games in order to have a chance.

agibson · November 20, 2015, 11:56:43 AM

Quote from: covufan on November 20, 2015, 10:15:13 AMI show that RealTimeRPI's engine (RTR GAMER) at 77-72 Oregon.

Yeah, funny. The predicted result on the whole-season page is different from what you get if you click through (to the page where you get probability to win, etc.). One has a five point margin, the other seven. To different prediction engines, maybe.

covufan · November 20, 2015, 12:23:04 PM

Quote from: agibson on November 20, 2015, 11:56:43 AM
Quote from: covufan on November 20, 2015, 10:15:13 AMI show that RealTimeRPI's engine (RTR GAMER) at 77-72 Oregon.

Yeah, funny. The predicted result on the whole-season page is different from what you get if you click through (to the page where you get probability to win, etc.). One has a five point margin, the other seven. To different prediction engines, maybe.

Ha! I've not clicked on the actual game prediction in awhile!

wh · November 20, 2015, 01:33:56 PM

Quote from: FWalum on November 20, 2015, 11:17:35 AM
Watched the Baylor Oregon game and was very impressed with Oregon. Baylor made some extremely boneheaded plays that affected the outcome, but I thought Oregon was the better team. This will be an extremely difficult game to win. They were very physical with Baylor and ran their zone offense brilliantly causing the switch to man that Baylor did not handle well. Our man defense is better than Baylor's so we may be able to keep them from breaking the game wide open. We will have to shoot better and make better decisions (I am talking about taking the shot rather than making that "unselfish" pass that doesn't gain any advantage) than we have in any of our previous games in order to have a chance.

I also watched some of it. Oregon abused Baylor's zone by lobbing the ball to gaps in the low post for easy scores. When Baylor switched to man, they got beat several times on drives to the basket. Vashil is going to have to be at his intimidating best.

a3uge · November 20, 2015, 02:39:38 PM

Vashil needs to stay out of foul trouble too. He may be able to get away with playing the last 16 min with 4 fouls against IPFW, but not Oregon. In that first game, he picked up 2 offensive fouls on moving screens. In the game against URI, he picked up a moving screen and a swim move foul. Jubril is a good backup, but we'll need Vashil down the stretch to get some stops at the end of the game.

vu72 · November 20, 2015, 02:44:27 PM

I just checked the Pac 12 for tv coverage of the game. It will broadcast on PAC-12 OREGON, 379 on Time Warner here in Dallas. It also said you could see it on line at pac-12.com

valporun · November 20, 2015, 03:09:16 PM

I believe to watch it on pac-12.com, you have to subscribe to the network in your cable or satellite package?

Donjon VU07 · November 20, 2015, 03:49:29 PM

Quote from: valporun on November 20, 2015, 03:09:16 PM
I believe to watch it on pac-12.com, you have to subscribe to the network in your cable or satellite package?

Affirmative. Pac-12's online service is a lot like ESPN3's.
My cable provider is worthless and hasn't not set up Pac-12's online streaming (or ESPN3).

If I don't start "seeing" some basketball soon instead of having to settle for just "hearing" it (not a knock on Ickow--he does a great job) I'm just going to snap.

talksalot · November 20, 2015, 04:55:40 PM

Here's the Box Score for the Baylor Game... what jumps out to me is that they use a 6-man rotation, and get one in Foul Trouble, and the other 5 guys play full time... I wonder what would happen if they had two guys in foul trouble...

http://www.goducks.com/ViewArticle.dbml?&DB_OEM_ID=500&ATCLID=210504118

and I see that the Baylor - Oregon game was part of the "Global Sports Shootout"... Savannah State (playing Oregon tonight) is involved in that along with Arkansas State and Jackson State. Savannah Tigers are 3-0, wins over Fla Natl, Campbell (59-57) and Arkansas State (76-75).

justducky · November 20, 2015, 06:29:55 PM

Quote from: talksalot on November 20, 2015, 04:55:40 PMHere's the Box Score for the Baylor Game... what jumps out to me is that they use a 6-man rotation, and get one in Foul Trouble, and the other 5 guys play full time... I wonder what would happen if they had two guys in foul trouble...

If they are only comfortable with going 6 deep against good competition then our 10 deep with confidence rotation (might jump to 11 when Lexus gets back to 100%) could offer them some problems. To really push them into trouble we will need to hit some outside 3's to keep them from getting any rest from their brand of the 2-3 zone. Pulling them out of much zone while hounding them defensively might lead to some pleasant surprises.

Wait! Whats wrong with this picture? Don't the big schools always have the deeper benches with the taller, quicker and more experienced athletes?

usc4valpo · November 20, 2015, 07:37:54 PM

Valpo 68
Roast Duck la Orange 63

I look forward to a great weekend at Duckland after Clay and Bryce perform back to back destruction to the Phil Knight express.

wh · November 20, 2015, 11:22:26 PM

Dish customers need the Multi Sport Pack @$13/mo. to get the Pac-12 Network. I'm going to order it in the morning, assuming I can cancel after a month. I'm happy to pay $13 to be able to watch both the Oregon and Oregon State games.

talksalot · November 21, 2015, 06:38:29 AM

Box Score from Friday night's Savannah State game

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/gametracker/boxscore/NCAAB_20151120_SAV@OREG

kinda fun way to post their "tweets"
http://www.goducks.com/fls/500/pages/qc/

Ducks are hosting USC in football on Saturday... asking fans to go to the basketball games Friday and Sunday..."Facing Big Test on Sunday with Valparaiso"

3 guys set records for minutes-played
3-point shooting for Oregon~not good (4-17),
Free Throw Shooting for Oregon~not good (11-24)
Only called for 13 fouls
46 points in the paint
Attendance 6,465 (Capacity 12,364)

Dana Altman post game comment: On upcoming Valparaiso game...
"Valparaiso is as good as Baylor. Their power ranking will be every bit as good as Baylor's when it's all said and done. They are going to win 30 games, and they will be a good team. I just hope one of those 30 wins is not us."

On the upcoming matchup with Valparaiso...
"We know their personnel and we know that they're a really good team. They run their plays well, and they're an experienced team with a lot of older guys. We just have to come and get ready for a fight and for a real good game."

Savannah State coach about the Ducks:
On how tough it is to match up with Oregon...

"They're very aggressive on the offensive glass. We needed to put some bodies on them. They got some easy second chances. Initially, they were transitioning well offensively. (Chris Boucher) was running. They were running. They were getting good layups. We were thinking and they were going. We were able to combat it a little bit better in the second half...I coached against Dana (Altman) at Creighton, and he has a tendency to want his guys to be tough and not afraid to get their hands dirty."

agibson · November 21, 2015, 10:24:15 AM

Quote from: wh on November 20, 2015, 11:22:26 PM
Dish customers need the Multi Sport Pack @$13/mo. to get the Pac-12 Network. I'm going to order it in the morning, assuming I can cancel after a month. I'm happy to pay $13 to be able to watch both the Oregon and Oregon State games.

Yeah, I was looking at this too. I don't particularly trust Comcast to turn it on promptly, or certainly to make it easy to cancel. Frankly, even if it's in their interest, I don't really even trust them to make it easy to signup! But, probably a good option to have available, maybe I'll give it a try...

Well, it's easy on the front end, at least. Maybe only $5/month extra at a promotional price. We'll see what it actually costs, and how cancellation goes. Who knows, if it's really only ~$10/month at the usual price, they might lure me in.

For now, I get two VU games, and an El Clasico bonus. I'll take it. Turned on instantaneously, within seconds of clicking "complete my order" on the web page.