Game 10: @ Indiana State 12/9

[talksalot]

RealTime RPI has us LOSING to ISU 75-74...

they also have us losing at Belmont, Cleveland State, Milwaukee and Green Bay... ALL by 1 point!

[agibson]

RealTime RPI has us LOSING to ISU 75-74...

they also have us losing at Belmont, Cleveland State, Milwaukee and Green Bay... ALL by 1 point!

Pessimistic!  We've not given up 75 points this season. Even in a loss.

For another computer prediction, RPI Forecast gives us a 71% chance of beating Indiana State, with a 6.7 point spread.

[valpolaw]

Indiana State played Butler pretty close and has probably worked up its confidence to come out hungry in this game.  I'm thinking Valpo comes out of this one with a win by 5-8 points and it is a fairly close throughout the game.  Of course, I'd love to see the Crusaders win in a blow out, but I don't see that happening.   

[vusupporter]

Using anything with RPI in the name as a predictor tool is absolutely asinine.

[agibson]

Using anything with RPI in the name as a predictor tool is absolutely asinine.

Heh.  I don't know if there's anyone out there who _actually_ uses RPI as the basis of predictions.  RealTimeRPI has their own algorithm.  RPIForecast uses Sagarin ratings as the base for predictions, etc.

For RPIForecast the goal is to _describe_ the RPI.  For RealTimeRPI, near as I can tell, the predictions are just a nice feature tacked on to the RPI reporting service.

[a3uge]

Using anything with RPI in the name as a predictor tool is absolutely asinine.

Heh.  I don't know if there's anyone out there who _actually_ uses RPI as the basis of predictions.  RealTimeRPI has their own algorithm.  RPIForecast uses Sagarin ratings as the base for predictions, etc.

For RPIForecast the goal is to _describe_ the RPI.  For RealTimeRPI, near as I can tell, the predictions are just a nice feature tacked on to the RPI reporting service.

Right - RPI forecast's predictions actually have nothing to do with RPI. Their score predictions come straight from Sagarins predictor.

The expected RPI (forecasted) uses the same Sagarin formula, but it stimulates an entire season 10,000 times.

[talksalot]

heck, I just reported it here for Bulletin Board material for the team...

[agibson]

heck, I just reported it here for Bulletin Board material for the team...

It's interesting to see, at least.  Makes you wonder if one model or the other is obviously better, when the results can be so divergent.

[hailcrusaders]

Without Tevonn: Valpo 65 I St. 61
With Tevonn: Valpo 73 I St. 59

[vu72]

Without Tevonn: Valpo 65 I St. 61
With Tevonn: Valpo 73 I St. 59

Bryce's weekly video said that David continues to improve and that Tevonn had practiced and was a "game time" decision (read--he'll be playing) 

[agibson]

Bryce's weekly video said that David continues to improve and that Tevonn had practiced and was a "game time" decision (read--he'll be playing) 

I don't have the quote, but what I heard was along the lines of "had practiced a little".

My hunch is that, at most, they'll try to use this game to get Tevonn some game-intensity minutes.  Maybe that happens when we have a big lead.  _Maybe_ that happens earlier, and we see how he feels.  We've seen this go both ways in recent memory, I think.  Sometimes just a few minutes, sometimes a number large enough to surprise even the player.

But, I wouldn't be at all surprised if we don't see him on the court. I guess I'd be a little surprised if he doesn't dress.

[agibson]

[tweet]674730265151987712[/tweet]

I'm a little surprised.  But not very.

[wh]

Very nice facility. IN tax dollars at work. Looks like money well spent.

Rik Smits in the house.

[NativeCheesehead]

Ok I realize we're spoiled with a pretty good announce crew and generally good crews in the conference. These guys are really bad. Ferdinandez? 

[a3uge]

Vashil is in foul trouble. Where have I heard that before?

[a3uge]

Ok I realize we're spoiled with a pretty good announce crew and generally good crews in the conference. These guys are really bad. Ferdinandez?

Yeah these guys are awful.

[oklahomamick]

Peters made the trip.

[NativeCheesehead]

Love this new kid David Sarkira

[a3uge]

Let's stop running the play where Carter dribbles into the lane and turns it over.

[crusadermoe]

Yeah.   And the matador defense can stop anytime after the 10-run we just gave up.

[covufan]

Ok I realize we're spoiled with a pretty good announce crew and generally good crews in the conference. These guys are really bad. Ferdinandez? 

Or Sarkira (Skara).  Awful

[oklahomamick]

That was a bad foul call at the end of half. 

[hailcrusaders]

Can't complain too much about a 10 point lead, but that was one of the ugliest halves I've seen in a while.

[bbtds]

It may be just me but are the refs making some strange calls? I'm not going to say that all the calls are going against Valpo but the refs sure have missed a lot of calls and then inconsistently make calls that make you go 'huh?'

[oklahomamick]

13-3 free throws advantage Indiana St.  Vashil has shot all 3 of our free throws.