ESPN Bracketology

[oklahomamick]

Just fun to track it all year.  Currently we are a 11 seed in Providence against the Zags.  We know how that turned out last time we played them in the NCAA.  There are two teams currently in the bracketology that we have beaten, Iona and Belmont.  We lost to Oregon by 5 on their court.  They are listed as a 6 seed. 

Dec. 8th Edition

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[agibson]

Just fun to track it all year.  Currently we are a 11 seed in Providence against the Zags.  We know how that turned out last time we played them in the NCAA.  There are two teams currently in the bracketology that we have beaten, Iona and Belmont.  We lost to Oregon by 5 on their court.  They are listed as a 6 seed. 

Dec. 8th Edition

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Nice to see that he's kept us at 11.  I don't know what he claims to put into his predictions, and I don't know if that "at-large quality" seed would survive us loving even the Horizon League tournament final (maybe that would be enough to drop us to "6th 12 seed" and out of the tournament).

I've not read a detailed report of the NCAA mock bracketing exercise since Whelliston went off the air.  Or even paid too much attention to "how brackets are made" reporting since then.

But, it seems like geography matters more than it used to.  I wonder if Lunardi takes this into account appropriately.  I wonder, geographically, how likely a matchup with a Pacific school is, let alone on the Atlantic.  Maybe Cincinnati, Vanderbilt, or especially Butler are more likely.

Butler, I could handle Butler.  Maybe better than Baylor.

[agibson]

There are two teams currently in the bracketology that we have beaten, Iona and Belmont.  We lost to Oregon by 5 on their court.  They are listed as a 6 seed. 

And with Oregon State and Rhode Island apparently 6th and 7th in line for additional at-large slots.  Lunardi clearly has respect for our opponents, so maybe no surprise he has respect for us as well.

[agibson]

Do we have a better thread for early at-large speculation?

http://on.ncaa.com/1U4K3U7
has the rosiest prognosis I've seen.

1. Valparaiso

Record: 6-2, KenPom rating: 31, RPI Non Conference Strength of Schedule: 3

The Crusaders topped the preseason list of hopefuls because they returned every starter from a 28-6 team and added talented newcomers as well. Coach Bryce Drew's team has fulfilled those expectations, picking up road wins over likely top-100 teams Rhode Island and Oregon State.

alpo lost by six at No. 24 Oregon on Nov. 22, but that result is more likely to help than hurt when the selection committee reviews its resume. A 69-66 Thanksgiving weekend loss at projected middle-of-the-pack-in-the-MAC Ball State could sting, but the committee should reward Valpo for challenging a half-dozen top-100 caliber opponents.

Defense fuels the Crusaders. They've allowed opponents a measly 0.84 points per possession to rank fifth in the nation in defensive rating.

searching for the touch from the 3-point arc (29.9 percent, 299th in the nation). Star forward Alec Peters (16.3 ppg, 57.1 pct. on 2-pointers) has been terrific, but needs help in the scoring column. Sophomore guard Tevonn Walker (11.3 ppg, 59.8 pct effective field goal pct.) is the only other Valpo player averaging in double figures.

At-large bid chances:Excellent. Thanks to smart scheduling and road success, Valpo is well-positioned in the at-large bid conversation. The Crusaders should enter Horizon League play at 11-2 or 10-3. From there, winning the regular season title with a two or three loss conference record should solidify their spot in the 68-team field regardless the result of the conference tournament.

[agibson]

Lunardi has his end-of-calendar-year bracketology out on twitter.

We've slipped a bit.

[tweet]682598970644951041[/tweet]

We were as high as 40 fairly recently

[tweet]679135431276011520[/tweet]
though had bounced around a bit (43, etc.)

(Thanks to HC for the Lunardi re-tweet.)

[HC]

http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2016/01/01/bracketology-kansas-leads-new-years-day-lineup/

Not ESPN but they have Valpo/HL team as a 13 playing Iowa State in OKC.

Something else im not sure how I feel about is they have up to 9 teams from the ACC getting in. Part of me says a 9th place team (heck anyone worse then 6th) probably shouldn't get a shot at playing for a national title. Another part says that a 9th place team from the ACC is probably better then a 2nd or 3rd place team from a smaller conference.  I think I'd like to see it capped at 6 per conference to give the smaller conferences a few more opportunity (although I suppose the four slots that would open in this example would just go to the big east and sec), but then are the best 68 teams actually in? I know this would never happen because of e money of the bigger conferences so we can just ignore that.

[usc4valpo]

Living in Des Moines, I would love to see the Saders upset the Clones. That would be hilarious.

[covufan]

http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2016/01/01/bracketology-kansas-leads-new-years-day-lineup/

Not ESPN but they have Valpo/HL team as a 13 playing Iowa State in OKC.

Something else im not sure how I feel about is they have up to 9 teams from the ACC getting in. Part of me says a 9th place team (heck anyone worse then 6th) probably shouldn't get a shot at playing for a national title. Another part says that a 9th place team from the ACC is probably better then a 2nd or 3rd place team from a smaller conference.  I think I'd like to see it capped at 6 per conference to give the smaller conferences a few more opportunity (although I suppose the four slots that would open in this example would just go to the big east and sec), but then are the best 68 teams actually in? I know this would never happen because of e money of the bigger conferences so we can just ignore that.

I think the teams from the bigger conferences should have at least a 0.500 record in conference play prior to the conference tournament


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[talksalot]

not sure what blog-subject to put this...

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/01/05/midmajor-gonzaga-wichita-state-valparaiso-monmouth

read all the way down... Felder has his own little section....

[agibson]

Lunardi has his end-of-calendar-year bracketology out on twitter.  [with Valpo #46 on the S curve]

The official Bracketology has now come out

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/188

with Valpo bumped up, remaining an 11 seed.  Against #6 Pittsburgh, in Brooklyn.

[SanityLost17]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">FIRST OUT: ZonaSt, FlaSt, VCU, Wake. NEXT OUT: Marq, LSU, Valpo, Vandy. FOUR MORE: OreSt, UTA, OhioSt, StJoes.</p>&mdash; Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) January 9, 2016
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Lunardi has valpo in his "Next 4 Out".  So right now we are on the outside looking in if we don't win the HL.  I wonder if the committee will give us the same respect they give the big boys when evaluating the Ball Sate loss.  2 starters out, on the road, directly after a long road trip.  My guess is that they won't.  Shocking, I know.  haha 

[a3uge]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">FIRST OUT: ZonaSt, FlaSt, VCU, Wake. NEXT OUT: Marq, LSU, Valpo, Vandy. FOUR MORE: OreSt, UTA, OhioSt, StJoes.</p>&mdash; Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) January 9, 2016

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Lunardi has valpo in his "Next 4 Out".  So right now we are on the outside looking in if we don't win the HL.  I wonder if the committee will give us the same respect they give the big boys when evaluating the Ball Sate loss.  2 starters out, on the road, directly after a long road trip.  My guess is that they won't.  Shocking, I know.  haha 
He has UWGB winning the Horizon because they're sitting 3-0 and we're only 2-0. Thats why we're in the OUT category. His Bracketology at the beginning of conference season is always fairly questionable. I wish he'd just take the top RPI teams in conference and assume they win the conference tournament.

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[agibson]

[tweet]685844743549534208[/tweet]

Took me a minute to figure this out, or even come close.  Since Green Bay's 3-0, they get the nod for the AQ [i.e. what a3uge said]. So they get a place in the S Curve (#58, maybe the last 14 seed; compared to our recent #46, 11 seed).

And we get official consideration on his at-large list.  7th out, suggesting #51 on the S curve, I guess. Not sure if I'm misunderstanding him, or if he really things the situation has changed so much for bubble teams - or if he's folding in a conference tourney loss, or what's going on.  We've not done anything worthy of downgrade since the Dec 31/Jan 4 updates.

Will be interesting to see where we fold in once we're back in the AQ slot.  Need a GB loss.  May only come at the ARC next Saturday.  (And, of course, Valpo needs to keep winning).

[StlVUFan]

I've been trying to tell you all for years.  Lunardi's bracketology is a frivolous exercise.  Always has been always will be.  He used to even sort of admit it.

His methodology is shallow at best.  To him, it's probably just harmless fun.  To me, he's a troll.

[vu84v2]

Valpo's RPI moved up to 31 with the win last night (I use the ESPN version). However, there are few scenarios that I see where Valpo can get an at-large birth. There are just too many games against 200+ and 300+ teams in the conference coming up. My guess would be that if Valpo wins every game in the conference, they will still be in the high 40s (Murray State last year is a good comparison). If Valpo were to then lose in the conference tournament to a '100s' team, their RPI drops to the high 50s and, unless Oregon State turns into a strong marquee win, Valpo does not get an at-large birth.

[oklahomamick]

Valpo's RPI moved up to 31 with the win last night (I use the ESPN version). However, there are few scenarios that I see where Valpo can get an at-large birth. There are just too many games against 200+ and 300+ teams in the conference coming up. My guess would be that if Valpo wins every game in the conference, they will still be in the high 40s (Murray State last year is a good comparison). If Valpo were to then lose in the conference tournament to a '100s' team, their RPI drops to the high 50s and, unless Oregon State turns into a strong marquee win, Valpo does not get an at-large birth.

HL is a 1 bid onference, this year and for the foreseeable future.  Just another reason to protect our best team and reward them the conference tournament.  It's fun talking about a possible at large bid, but its too emotional.  Not going to happen.

[agibson]

My guess would be that if Valpo wins every game in the conference, they will still be in the high 40s (Murray State last year is a good comparison). If Valpo were to then lose in the conference tournament to a '100s' team, their RPI drops to the high 50s and

RPI Forecast gives us an overall average expected RPI of 37.9, after the Oakland win.  Good for 32nd or 33rd best, on a current RPI of 28.

They give us a 10.88% chance of a sweep (presumably our Sagarin PREDICTOR improved on the win), with an expected RPI in that scenario of 23.9.

RPI Wizard differs slightly, predicting #33 RPI.  Or #22 in a conference sweep.  Rising to #20 with a neutral win over, picking arbitrarily, Green Bay.  Falling to #21 on a neutral loss to Oakland to end the tournament.

Not sure how accurate those predictions are.  But, it'd be a mighty impressive RPI to turn down.  Maybe not unprecedented.

[agibson]

[tweet]685844743549534208[/tweet]

It may be pretty capricious, lightly done.

But, it is interesting to be reminded of the seeding competition.  He's got non at-large 11's and 12's like

45-UALR, 46-SDSU, 47-AKRON, 48-CHATT, 49-STONY, 50-YALE, 51-NE, 52-HAWAII

Not to mention Monmouth.

South Dakota State and Monmouth could both end up with better RPI's than us. And Monmouth with better wins.  Chattanooga could perhaps be like Monmouth.

[justducky]

Not that this can happen but what could be our lowest seed if we were to win out?

This is an intellectual exercise only so I don't want anybody to overexert themselves.  Still I am curious about your thinking. Is an 8 now out of the question?

[vu84v2]

If Valpo wins out (wow, there is an excessively optimistic perspective), I would expect them to be between an 8 and a 10.

[agibson]

Not that this can happen but what could be our lowest seed if we were to win out?

Interesting question.  Replying quickly, without too much though.

It's a straight up question of "Who's the better basketball team, more likely to win?", in principle.  So, if Valpo somehow turned it on and won the rest of our games by 30 each, I suppose the sky's the limit.

Realistically, if it happened today, without time for the hype to build, if we automatically qualified (AQ'd) without another loss, I'd be unhappy but not completely astounded if were given a 12 seed.  Could it even drop to 13? I'd want to see the other top AQ's for comparison.

I probably wouldn't complain with a 9, again, without time for the hype to build, just going off a quick gut reaction.

I guess we could be ranked #20 or better, without too much surprise, in some ranking schemes in this scenario. (Heck, our RPI could be #18 - maybe better.) So maybe a 5 or a 6 seed shouldn't be completely surprising either - except for the history of seeing big conference teams rewarded, lavish attention being given to "quality wins" even if mid-majors get very few chances, almost never on their home courts, etc.

I do notice there's some interesting history at
http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html

If we wound up with the #21 RPI, say by running the table and losing to Oakland in the tournament final, it would almost, but not quiet, be the worst RPI snub ever if we were left out.  Missouri State lost out once as a #21 (a pair of #30's next biggest snubs). 29 wins being left out would be the biggest snub ever, but that's presumably not sacred.  And it'd only be 27 D1 wins - Oral Roberts missed out with that many a few years ago, and lost in the first round of the NIT.

[agibson]

I've not tried looking closely at comparisons, but I guess we have a bunch in the Horizon League in fairly recent memory.  Some don't like the Butler comparison.

But, we have examples of a Horizon League team winding up with 5, 5, 7, 8, and 9 seeds.  That 8 seed coming with 5 Horizon League losses.

What did their records look like?  I suppose they often had bigger wins than Oregon State, or more like it.

[a3uge]

Not that this can happen but what could be our lowest seed if we were to win out?

Interesting question.  Replying quickly, without too much though.

It's a straight up question of "Who's the better basketball team, more likely to win?", in principle.  So, if Valpo somehow turned it on and won the rest of our games by 30 each, I suppose the sky's the limit.

Realistically, if it happened today, without time for the hype to build, if we automatically qualified (AQ'd) without another loss, I'd be unhappy but not completely astounded if were given a 12 seed.  Could it even drop to 13? I'd want to see the other top AQ's for comparison.

I probably wouldn't complain with a 9, again, without time for the hype to build, just going off a quick gut reaction.

I guess we could be ranked #20 or better, without too much surprise, in some ranking schemes in this scenario. (Heck, our RPI could be #18 - maybe better.) So maybe a 5 or a 6 seed shouldn't be completely surprising either - except for the history of seeing big conference teams rewarded, lavish attention being given to "quality wins" even if mid-majors get very few chances, almost never on their home courts, etc.

I do notice there's some interesting history at
http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html

If we wound up with the #21 RPI, say by running the table and losing to Oakland in the tournament final, it would almost, but not quiet, be the worst RPI snub ever if we were left out.  Missouri State lost out once as a #21 (a pair of #30's next biggest snubs). 29 wins being left out would be the biggest snub ever, but that's presumably not sacred.  And it'd only be 27 D1 wins - Oral Roberts missed out with that many a few years ago, and lost in the first round of the NIT.

Missouri State didn't have any quality OOC wins that year. The selection committee crucifies teams for that. Valpo has decent wins @URI, @Oregon State, Belmont, and Iona, all which should be top 100 RPI wins. We also have a good reputation carrying over from last year, and the selection committee seems to reward past performance (see Butler getting a 8 seed, George Mason a 9... Okay maybe a ridiculous comparison), but you get my point. Even though the Horizon slipped in terms of RPI recently, it still has a decent reputation. There's still NBA-caliber talent in the Horizon and already in the Association, even outside of Butler. Writers and reporters seem to respect the Horizon, and Valpos decent performance over Maryland last year seems to get a lot of praise. Valpo most certainly won't win every conference game, or all but 1, but I think it's a lock for an at-large if they do, and certainly possible to get an at-large with 2 road losses + a HL championship game loss.

I think Valpo will probably lose 3 conference games, maybe 4, so the at-large talk will probably be moot come March, but like tonight's Powerball, one can certainly dream.

[bbtds]

Need a GB loss

You ask. Your wish is granted. 103-93 to YSU. I don't even think defense came to the Beeghly tonight.

"Have you seen defense?"

"No, I think he didn't get off the bus."

[bbtds]

unless Oregon State turns into a strong marquee win, Valpo does not get an at-large birth.

You'll have to ask Vashil if it was an at-large birth. He's not your average father in height. Probably an at-large berth.