ESPN Bracketology

[mgovalpo]

The best website to gauge seeds is http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

He casts a pretty wide net - any idea how many of his sources are garbage?

But, fun to follow, horse race style, for sure.

He's willing to take one from anyone and everyone, which helps to kind of balance things out. I think overall, it is a really good gauge of the landscape as a whole. And it also lets you find a lot of not quite as well known sources for this stuff, some of which are quite good.

[justducky]

So, yes, it would seem that Dayton and Gonzaga have a lot more scheduling pull than Valpo.  Getting quality opponents to travel.

St. Mary's? Not so much.

Getting high quality in-season tournaments, with neutral court games, would be a good intermediate step.  We've discussed this in the past, but I don't know if there's any consensus as to why we can't get into the "better" events.

I am not certain of the rules or the logic but someone commented that to participate in the "better" events you need to "host in the prior season  or some such". So maybe the Oregon St gig along with hosting Iona and 2 non D-1s was the best we could do?

I already posed the question as to whether or not this season's hosting efforts will qualify us for "prime" 16-17 events but strangely no one replied. I took that silence as a sign of uncertainty.

Frankly many of these exempt tournaments are just no bargain (except for the majors). With todays structuring you frequently only play one major team at their home site and are then shuffled to a neutral site "kids table" event featuring less than ideal mid- major competitors.

[oklahomamick]

Oakland announced they will be In the Alaskan shootout next year.m

[valpotx]

The Great Alaska Shootout is not what it used to be.  It is still a good/solid tournament, but is no longer thought of as the #2 tournament to #1 Maui Invitational.  When we played in Alaska, it was still a very prestigious tournament.

This year:

   
Quarterfinalists
Alaska Anchorage Seawolves (DII, GNAC)
Drexel Dragons (CAA)
Loyola of Chicago Ramblers (MVC)
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (C-USA)
UNC Asheville Bulldogs (Big South)
San Diego Toreros (WCC)
San Jose State Spartans (MW)
Toledo Rockets (MAC)

[sliman]

So isn't this the type of scheduling we were encouraging Oakland to seek?  More potential wins rather than playing only for guaranteed money to help the budget.

[a3uge]

So isn't this the type of scheduling we were encouraging Oakland to seek?  More potential wins rather than playing only for guaranteed money to help the budget.

Yes.

[justducky]

So isn't this the type of scheduling we were encouraging Oakland to seek?  More potential wins rather than playing only for guaranteed money to help the budget.

Yes.

Despite their recent RPI drop to 149 Oakland is still a Pomeroy 103 and Sagarin 100 team. So if Felder and his core group all return (big if) then Oakland could be in the thick of the 16-17 at-large conversations. With that as our starting point would you rather they fatten up on cream puff mid majors or go gunning for trophies? I think the MAC 2014-15 strategy of piling up meaningless wins might now be totally discredited. Either way I doubt that many top 100 teams who were willing to play them this year will be willing to play them next.

[a3uge]

So isn't this the type of scheduling we were encouraging Oakland to seek?  More potential wins rather than playing only for guaranteed money to help the budget.

Yes.

Despite their recent RPI drop to 149 Oakland is still a Pomeroy 103 and Sagarin 100 team. So if Felder and his core group all return (big if) then Oakland could be in the thick of the 16-17 at-large conversations. With that as our starting point would you rather they fatten up on cream puff mid majors or go gunning for trophies? I think the MAC 2014-15 strategy of piling up meaningless wins might now be totally discredited. Either way I doubt that many top 100 teams who were willing to play them this year will be willing to play them next.

I want them to finally have an RPI close to their abilities. It's absolutely ridiculous that the Horizon's second best team is at a 149. We will have 0 opportunities in conference to collect another top 100 RPI win, something which the selection committee does see and look at. Valpo can win out and end up with the same exact RPI. That's a major problem. Last year Oakland didn't even finish above .500. I don't think anyone is advocating them playing "cream puff mid majors", but they're not going to be anywhere close to an at-large scheduling the way they do now. Even had Oakland beat Michigan State and Virginia, their RPI would be around 98. That's nowhere close enough for an at-large. They should worry about winning games they should and less about upsetting top 10 teams.

[oklahomamick]

I absolutely agree.  Again, our 2nd best team should not be in the mid 100's.  They are much much better than their rpi suggests. 


Oakland AD takes questions on their fan forum (pretty cool) and he usually responds.  I think you should copy the above and send it his way. Kampe also takes questions from his radio show. 


If they chance their ways just a little, they will be helping the HL.  They are a good team and dedicated to winning which helps the HL, but they can do more for the HL by their scheduling. 

[agibson]

Palm's updated us to a 10, happen to be facing Pittsburgh in Des Moines.

Currently he's go the play-in games both as 11-11.  He said on twitter as recently as Monday that we couldn't afford a loss in the HL tourney... But, at a 10 seed we must be pretty close, in his estimation, to an at-large.  He's got Gonzaga, GWU, Oregon State at the other 10's, and Monmouth, Wichita State, and the play-ins at the 11's.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Bracketmatrix.com, with all brackets represented coming after our Michigan road wins, but necessarily our last three wins, has us as the top 11 seed, an average of 9.98 in brackets.  With a 6 (still teamrankings.com), but also still some 13's, even as recently as this Monday.  (And their averages include a 12-12 play-in. They also push Wichita State and Gonzaga up to the 9's.)

[wh]

I absolutely agree.  Again, our 2nd best team should not be in the mid 100's.  They are much much better than their rpi suggests. 

What a difference a day makes. They have lost 3 home games already, including 2 to league bottom feeders. 8 of their remaining 12 games are on the road. They are not even in the conversation for "2nd best team" - at this point.

Personally, I don't have any special feelings about Oakland one way or the other. They're just 1 of several teams standing between us and a return trip to the Big Dance. That said, as been discussed many times the location of the tournament gives Oakland and Detroit a built in advantage over the rest of the field. For that reason alone I will be pulling for anyone else but those 2 to get the other double bye, and anyone else to reach the championship game against us (if we are able to get there).

[oklahomamick]

Maybe I should have said 2nd best talent, instead of second best team.  Then again, 2nd best talent could be the other Detroit group. 

[talksalot]

You don't suppose this is all part of the plan by the league to get JLA ticket sales up for Round 1?  Having them play in the early round might draw a few more fans than a Northern Kentucky-Green Bay game. 

[a3uge]

Palm's updated us to a 10, happen to be facing Pittsburgh in Des Moines.

Currently he's go the play-in games both as 11-11.  He said on twitter as recently as Monday that we couldn't afford a loss in the HL tourney... But, at a 10 seed we must be pretty close, in his estimation, to an at-large.  He's got Gonzaga, GWU, Oregon State at the other 10's, and Monmouth, Wichita State, and the play-ins at the 11's.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Bracketmatrix.com, with all brackets represented coming after our Michigan road wins, but necessarily our last three wins, has us as the top 11 seed, an average of 9.98 in brackets.  With a 6 (still teamrankings.com), but also still some 13's, even as recently as this Monday.  (And their averages include a 12-12 play-in. They also push Wichita State and Gonzaga up to the 9's.)

Pitt would be a dream matchup. They played ZERO out of conference road games. Only two neutral court games, both to middling A10 teams. They got destroyed in two games vs really good defenses - Louisville and Purdue. I think Valpo could win that game pretty easily.

[VUSWIM08-12]

Did you happen to see the first half of the Pitt vs Gonzaga game that got canceled(It was in Japan,to much moisture on the floor http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/11/13/pitt-vs-gonzaga-slippery-court-conditions-canceled-early). Pitt is very athletic,they were up on the Zags at halftime.I would be worried about them if somehow that bracket prediction is correct. It would be awesome to be in a 10 vs 7 game though!

[talksalot]

It would be awesome to be in a 10 vs 7 game though!

under their scenario, winner would get Iowa (or North Florida)... in DesMoines... which would mean Tickets would be hard to get for our faithful.

[wh]

College basketball: Become acquainted with these possible bracket busters

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2016-01-20/college-basketball-become-acquainted-these-possible-bracket?cid=ncaammsocial_tw_sf19313329

[vu72]

Didn't know where to put this so added to this Bracketology thread.

USA Today has us as a 9 seed playing Colorado.  Sagarin has us up to #34 and Notre Dame at #35!!  Got to love it!! Oh, and our friends a little south of Valpo also got a 9 seed, playing Pittsburgh.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2016/01/21/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-march-madness-college-basketball/79022432/

[valpotx]

12 seed would be the highest we can get now with another bad road loss.

[a3uge]

12 seed would be the highest we can get now with another bad road loss.

Or nah.

[bbtds]

12 seed would be the highest we can get now with another bad road loss.

We can't get another loss or it will be a 12, maybe even 13 but if we win out I think it will be 10 or 11.

[valpotx]

I just can't see the committee giving a 10 seed to a team with losses at Ball State, at Belmont, and at Wright State.  These are not bad losses for a mid-major program, but when comparing our losses against losses that standard 10 seeds end up with (Power 5), I just don't see it happening.

[a3uge]

12 seed would be the highest we can get now with another bad road loss.

We can't get another loss or it will be a 12, maybe even 13 but if we win out I think it will be 10 or 11.

Valpo could lose 3 conference games and still be an 11 seed. Still a top 50 RPI with wins over quality teams, and a much better resume than Valpo's team last year.

[valpotx]

The HL is very down this year.  The conference RPI is #15.  We don't have room to lose 3 conference games against mid-100 and below RPI teams, and still be a 10-11 seed.

[a3uge]

The HL is very down this year.  The conference RPI is #15.  We don't have room to lose 3 conference games against mid-100 and below RPI teams, and still be a 10-11 seed.

Our RPI would still be top 50 with 3 conference losses. Last year we were 50 exactly, but had 1 top 100 OOC RPI win and a really weak SOS.

And seriously look at the other top mid majors this year - Monmouth and AR-LR are losing in conference on the road. It sucks, but this stuff happens to mid majors. Maybe we didn't shield ourselves from a 12 seed, but Valpo still has a better resume than the other mid majors.