ESPN Bracketology

[oklahomamick]

cbs's Sam Vecenie believes Valpo could be a Cinderella team.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VP0LKCsWAIQ

[frontrowfan]

I am more worried about a good defensive team in the tournament than a good offensive one. Our D has shown up 95% of the time but our offense has been lethargic at times. Teams like Louisville concern me, well not anymore...

agree wholeheartedly ...We seem to bring our defense to every game but not our offense.  Poor shooting from every aspect has let us down when we lose.  A team can not beat elite teams on defense alone.  We have got to find a way for our other scorers to have big games when Alec is doubled.  Free throw shooting in the clutch should be a given.   That being said, on any given day, we can beat many of the higher rated teams.   Watched Xavier and Creighton last night, we could easily beat these two teams. 

[VULB#62]

Jan 28:  USAToday  has Valpo as a #10 seed and playing #7 seed Duke in the East Region in NYC.

February 1:  USAToday now has Valpo as a #10 but playing #7 seed Michigan in the West Region in Spokane.  Our buddies, the Oregon Ducks, BTW, are given a #2 also in the West

Feb 10: USAToday now has Valpo as a #10 but playing #7 seed UCONN in the Eastt Region in Raleigh, NC.  Our buddies, the Oregon Ducks, BTW, are still a #2  in the West.  We sure are traveling 

[VULB#62]

Jan 28:  USAToday  has Valpo as a #10 seed and playing #7 seed Duke in the East Region in NYC.

February 1:  USAToday now has Valpo as a #10 but playing #7 seed Michigan in the West Region in Spokane.  Our buddies, the Oregon Ducks, BTW, are given a #2 also in the West

Feb 10: USAToday now has Valpo as a #10 but playing #7 seed UCONN in the Eastt Region in Raleigh, NC.  Our buddies, the Oregon Ducks, BTW, are still a #2  in the West.  We sure are traveling 

Feb 11: USAToday now has Valpo as a #10 but playing #7 seed Dayton in the Eastt Region in Raleigh, NC.  Sheesh!

[agibson]

Bubble arch dropped St. Mary's on a home loss.  Our entry stays about the same, but maybe their pkaying up of our injuries is new.

Valparaiso [21-4 (11-1), RPI: 49, SOS: 203] The Crusaders spent much of November and December intermittently banged up. Now healthy, they play the stingiest per-possession defense in the country, while star forward Alec Peters is basically Iowa's Jarrod Uthoff without the blocked shots. That may, in the end, be Valpo's trump card: It's just really good. Better than its resume hints, anyway.

Oregon State won on the road, so their RPI continues to look good and now forecasts better than 50 (if not quite as well as ours forecasts).  But, could go either over or under pretty easily.

[Kyle321n]

Right now my bracket (I figured out the formula I like! Woot!) has us playing as an 8 seed vs. Colorado. The 1-16 match up that we line up with? Maryland vs. UNC Asheville. That would be a fun rematch in the second round. Old friend Butler is a 12 seed playing Arizona.

[agibson]

Did I miss the transition? It seems like we jumped from "always 41" on Lunardi's curve all the way to 35, deep into the at-large spots.

[tweet]698520393469009920[/tweet]

[ValpoHoops]

Lots of other teams have been losing lately. The bubble is soft this year...we need to continue winning games and good things will happen.

[SanityLost17]

Best case scenario for our conference would be for us to win out and lose to Oakland in the championship game.  The bubble is soft enough this year that we would be in the tournament under this scenario.  We would be on a 12 game winning streak going into the conference final.  This puts us in at a probable 10-11 seed, which is great for upsets.  I think Oakland would sneak in as the last 14 seed.  Both teams would get a fair amount of press, us because of our defense and Oakland because of Felder. 

Also, what are the chances we lose 2 games in a row to end the season?  If we lose the championship game to Oakland, we would win the next game.  This team does not lose 2 games in a row! 

Also, I am afraid that if we WIN OUT AND WIN THE TOURNAMENT that we would end up with an 8-9 seed.  I don't want an 8-9.  I don't think they will give us a 7 seed. So yeah, having 1 more loss is actually beneficial in my mind.     

[justducky]

Also, I am afraid that if we WIN OUT AND WIN THE TOURNAMENT that we would end up with an 8-9 seed.  I don't want an 8-9.  I don't think they will give us a 7 seed. So yeah, having 1 more loss is actually beneficial in my mind.     

I don't want an 8 or 9 seed either but if you weigh that against a 60 or even 70% nail biting, edge of your seat, elevated blood pressure probability for an at-large; then give me the 8 or 9. I don't want an NIT spot even if we might be the best team in the field.

[Donjon VU07]

Also, I am afraid that if we WIN OUT AND WIN THE TOURNAMENT that we would end up with an 8-9 seed.  I don't want an 8-9.  I don't think they will give us a 7 seed. So yeah, having 1 more loss is actually beneficial in my mind.

I don't want an 8 or 9 seed either but if you weigh that against a 60 or even 70% nail biting, edge of your seat, elevated blood pressure probability for an at-large; then give me the 8 or 9. I don't want an NIT spot even if we might be the best team in the field.

If anyone tracked NCAA's Mock Selection over the past two days, it was based on a premise (likely a random simulation) that Valpo lost in the Horizon tournament and Oakland won.  In that scenario, the selection committee seeded Oakland at 15, but Valpo was among the "last four out."  In other words, we did NOT make the tournament.

Sorry Horizon League: In my opinion we should be looking out for Numero Uno, and hoping for VU to completely win out.  It's the only certain path to the Tournament for VU.
(Correction: Winning the Horizon tournament is the only certain path to the Tournament.  We can lose as many games as we want until that time.  But let's not.)

[a3uge]

Also, I am afraid that if we WIN OUT AND WIN THE TOURNAMENT that we would end up with an 8-9 seed.  I don't want an 8-9.  I don't think they will give us a 7 seed. So yeah, having 1 more loss is actually beneficial in my mind.

I don't want an 8 or 9 seed either but if you weigh that against a 60 or even 70% nail biting, edge of your seat, elevated blood pressure probability for an at-large; then give me the 8 or 9. I don't want an NIT spot even if we might be the best team in the field.

If anyone tracked NCAA's Mock Selection over the past two days, it was based on a premise (likely a random simulation) that Valpo lost in the Horizon tournament and Oakland won.  In that scenario, the selection committee seeded Oakland at 15, but Valpo was among the "last four out."  In other words, we did NOT make the tournament.

Sorry Horizon League: In my opinion we should be looking out for Numero Uno, and hoping for VU to completely win out.  It's the only certain path to the Tournament for VU.
(Correction: Winning the Horizon tournament is the only certain path to the Tournament.  We can lose as many games as we want until that time.  But let's not.)

The mock selection was based on current resumes, not projected ones, so they caught Valpo at their highest RPI after playing NKU, UIC, and YSU in the past 3 games. If Valpo wins out, their RPI will slide into the 20's, and it would be really tough to leave Valpo out. There's only been a few teams between 20-35 RPI to miss the tournament.

[Donjon VU07]

The mock selection was based on current resumes, not projected ones, so they caught Valpo at their highest RPI after playing NKU, UIC, and YSU in the past 3 games. If Valpo wins out, their RPI will slide into the 20's, and it would be really tough to leave Valpo out. There's only been a few teams between 20-35 RPI to miss the tournament.

So they based their selection on the 3/4 of a season that's been played thus far, and just sort of arbitrarily chose auto-bids?  Wow that's dumb.  I just assumed they simulated the remainder of the season so they'd have full (albeit hypothetical) resumes to compare.  That would have made more sense.

Still though, I'd prefer not to be at the mercy of the selection committee come March.

[agibson]

Here from the NY Post

The most debate, predictably, revolved around the final bubble teams, pitting mid-majors against power-conference teams. Valparaiso, the best defensive team in the country according to KenPom.com, was left out. So were Chattanooga and William & Mary, who also were considered. But there was a strong sentiment to include Valparaiso over the likes of Butler, Michigan, Wisconsin and Temple. Losing to good teams only goes so far. We're talking about you, Michigan, which has only two top-100 wins. Time to pile up some victories.

Monmouth was apparently also given a loss in their tourney final... and given an at-large.

The mock selection was based on current resumes, not projected ones, so they caught Valpo at their highest RPI after playing NKU, UIC, and YSU in the past 3 games. If Valpo wins out, their RPI will slide into the 20's, and it would be really tough to leave Valpo out. There's only been a few teams between 20-35 RPI to miss the tournament.

If they got our schedule earlier this week... maybe it's a low point in _our_ RPI, but that's not supposed to matter much.  Oregon State should have been a top-50 win, Belmont and IPFW top-100.  Losses at 172, 175, 96, and 3.  Hmm... it's only a bunch of journalists, but doesn't bode well for our at-large chances.

[SanityLost17]

The mock selection was based on current resumes, not projected ones, so they caught Valpo at their highest RPI after playing NKU, UIC, and YSU in the past 3 games. If Valpo wins out, their RPI will slide into the 20's, and it would be really tough to leave Valpo out. There's only been a few teams between 20-35 RPI to miss the tournament.

So they based their selection on the 3/4 of a season that's been played thus far, and just sort of arbitrarily chose auto-bids?  Wow that's dumb.  I just assumed they simulated the remainder of the season so they'd have full (albeit hypothetical) resumes to compare.  That would have made more sense.

Still though, I'd prefer not to be at the mercy of the selection committee come March.

Where is your sense of adventure?  haha   Win out and lose the championship game and ESPN is talking about us non-stop for 5 days.  Can't beat that kind of press.       

[a3uge]

The mock selection was based on current resumes, not projected ones, so they caught Valpo at their highest RPI after playing NKU, UIC, and YSU in the past 3 games. If Valpo wins out, their RPI will slide into the 20's, and it would be really tough to leave Valpo out. There's only been a few teams between 20-35 RPI to miss the tournament.

So they based their selection on the 3/4 of a season that's been played thus far, and just sort of arbitrarily chose auto-bids?  Wow that's dumb.  I just assumed they simulated the remainder of the season so they'd have full (albeit hypothetical) resumes to compare.  That would have made more sense.

Still though, I'd prefer not to be at the mercy of the selection committee come March.

Where is your sense of adventure?  haha   Win out and lose the championship game and ESPN is trashing us non-stop for 5 days.

FIFY

[SanityLost17]

Here from the NY Post

The most debate, predictably, revolved around the final bubble teams, pitting mid-majors against power-conference teams. Valparaiso, the best defensive team in the country according to KenPom.com, was left out. So were Chattanooga and William & Mary, who also were considered. But there was a strong sentiment to include Valparaiso over the likes of Butler, Michigan, Wisconsin and Temple. Losing to good teams only goes so far. We're talking about you, Michigan, which has only two top-100 wins. Time to pile up some victories.

Anyone know the details? Did they take our schedule from today, and just added the tourney final loss? Or what did they assume for the rest of the regular season?

Monmouth was apparently also given a loss in their tourney final... and given an at-large.

Just go to Twitter and search #MockSelection and you will get all the details.  It was all based on data "as of today" and it wasn't the selection committee, it was the media.  It is just a way to make the media understand the process. 

[agibson]

Lots of other teams have been losing lately. The bubble is soft this year...we need to continue winning games and good things will happen.

Bracketmatrix doesn't show it, alas.  At least not yet.  Somehow we're down to a 10.84 there, good for a middling 12.  Just below the last at-large.  Lowest we've been in... a long time?

As for seeding, give me the best seed we can get, even a 9. I'm not greedy, I want to win a game. We can worry about taking down that #1 seed when we get there.

[agibson]

So they based their selection on the 3/4 of a season that's been played thus far, and just sort of arbitrarily chose auto-bids?  Wow that's dumb.  I just assumed they simulated the remainder of the season so they'd have full (albeit hypothetical) resumes to compare.  That would have made more sense.

In some past selection exercises they've done something like this.  At least they dribbled in results of conference tournaments late in the process, to simulate what it's like to get only some information on Saturday or even Sunday of bracketing week.

[hailcrusaders]

Why on earth would we want a 10/11 seed over an 8/9?

Sure, we'd play a top team in the second round, but we have a MUCH better chance of even getting to that point. And hey, even 8/9s beat 1 seeds. Look at UNI over Kansas the other year. I believe Butler's done it before, etc.

Does someone want to look up if an 8/9 historically has a better shot at reaching the Sweet 16 than a 10/11? I'd be very surprised if they didn't.

Well, the model here suggests that a 12 seed is actually a good place to be. http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/2015%20Omega.pdf

I suppose there's anecdotal wisdom to support that (there's always a 12 or two that beats a 5), and also suggests that the top 5 (overall) teams every year are a lot less upset-prone than everyone else. Either it's the shock-and-awe factor, or they simply are on another level.

Nonetheless, there's so much parity this year (how many #1-ranked teams have lost?) that any team we wind up playing is certainly beatable. I still think it's in our best interest to rack up as many Ws as possible.

[a3uge]

An 8-10 seed would be great for the program - it would show recruits we're at-large caliber. It's the sort of thing that could separate Valpo from most other mid majors.

[agibson]

Well, the model here suggests that a 12 seed is actually a good place to be. http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/2015%20Omega.pdf

Not even just the model, right? Only glancing at the paper, but looks like Table 1 is data.

Pretty much what you'd expect in the first round: the better the seed, the better win rate (on top of some of what's presumably noise? but from Table 2 it looks like they've chosen to include the odd results like 12>11 in their model).

If you want to get into the Sweet 16, 10-12 seeds are all pretty similar, and similar to 7.  9's worse than 13, and 8's only moderately better than 13.

If you want to get _past_ the Sweet 16, 8's as good as 7 or 10, and better than anything else below a 6.

That 10 line has done OK - but apparently never gotten to the final four.

Kyle Whelliston's site (used to?) has a pretty good database and query system, but I'm not sure if he's opened it up yet (usually that piece of the site is free around NCAA tourney time).

[StlVUFan]

Kyle Whelliston's site (used to?) has a pretty good database and query system, but I'm not sure if he's opened it up yet (usually that piece of the site is free around NCAA tourney time).

I believe you are talking about bbstate.com, and I assume that's always open.  midmajority.com has been dead for a couple of years now.

[78crusader]

The end of at large talk.

Paul

[valpocleveland]

losing to a team that lost to UIC