Game #13 Belmont Round 2

[HC]

Valpo has to win when they score 79 points. Poor defensive effort. Maybe a Christmas hangover, maybe a top ranking by that mid major group curse, maybe looking ahead to the conference season.....whatever the excuse you all who were talking at large can finally stop.

[valpolaw]

too little too late.  Bad free throws as usual.  This game had moments where I felt like I was watching the Ball State game (I know Belmont is much better than Ball State). 

[HC]

On an unrelated note: Oakland gave up 93 points to Chicago State in regulation.

[agibson]

Decent look from Peters there for first attempt to tie at the end.  Not great, pretty deep, but decent look.

Not at all sure D. Walkers the guy you want taking the last one.

But, impressive stuff from Belmont, for sure.  Carved through Valpo's defense like nobody else this season.  What a second half from Bradds.

This was the highest ranked home game (KenPom)... ever?... for Belmont?  Home _game_ not even home win.

Limited minutes from Peters?  I didn't notice him picking up his fourth, but he seemed missing from a lot of the second half.

And when did we burn our last timeout?  With a lot of time remaining... Were stuck using Hammink FT's for late-in-game conferences...

Belmont looked pretty good tonight.  And certainly made their FT's down the stretch.

Disappointing.  Very disappointing.  But it looked like a good Belmont team.

I had a feeling a couple of weeks ago this was going to be like an @Oakland.  It's a big part of why I planned the (failed) road trip to Nashville.  Wouldn't have predicted Bradds as the star vs. Felder, but maybe it's apt. 

Hopefully we can pull it together in Horizon League play, maybe find a come-from-behind win against Milwaukee or Oakland, or while laying an egg against a lesser opponent.

We certainly fought to get back in it.  But, not quite there.

[valpotx]

D Walker needs to lose his starting spot, and play less than 10 mpg from now on.  Bryce has given him the benefit of doubt, but he has played like crap all season.  He is not even close on so many of his shots.  Again, I have no idea what happened this summer, but he is not even close to the same guy as last season.

This was a bad loss.  Even though Belmont will do well in the OVC, we should have won this game by 6-7 points.  How can Bryce not camp someone in the lane when they are doing so many backdoor cuts in the second half?  They weren't on fire from 3, like they started the game.  This definitely kicks us out of any possible at-large talks, even if we go undefeated in conference, which isn't likely.  You can't really complain about being 10-3 after a strong mid-major schedule, but this team could do so much better than that record.  I will be happy if we go 12-6 or 13-5 in conference, which would probably secure the 1 seed. 

[hailcrusaders]

Another frustrating performance.

Giving up 50 points in the second half is not going to win you ball games. We didn't give up 50 all game against several of our opponents.

I have never seen us get dominated in the paint like that. On that point, I don't understand benching Vashil that early. I realize he wasn't having a good night on offense, but half of pulling off a comeback is playing defense, and he would have helped immensely beneath the basket.

Hard to complain too much on offense when we score 81, but we missed too many layups and FTs. I have never seen Peters disappear for 30 minutes at a time like that. Neither of the Walkers played all that well either. Nice performance by Hammink though. Also, those multi-minute scoring droughts at the beginning of each half did us no favors.

I don't criticize officiating very often, but Belmont sure got a lot of calls in the second half.

Also, bad camerawork on the OVC network. None of those awful under-the-basket shots, but they had some untimely close-ups of the Belmont coach while the ball was in play. We missed a Hammink dunk because of it.

[agibson]

Valpo has to win when they score 79 points. Poor defensive effort. Maybe a Christmas hangover, maybe a top ranking by that mid major group curse, maybe looking ahead to the conference season.....whatever the excuse you all who were talking at large can finally stop.

Oh, I don't know.  Hope springs eternal. Let's reel off a good run in conference, and we can talk again.

And, I'd be curious to hear back from you if/after you watch the replay, sounds like you missed most of the first half?  Was it uncharacteristically poor defense from Valpo?  Or just really effective stuff from Belmont?

[a3uge]

I was just surprised how Valpo lost. Belmont had a ton of easy inside looks. The length didn't seem to bother them at all.

[agibson]

Is Valpo out of timeouts?

I had trouble telling with their graphics.  But, I think yes, early on.

[hailcrusaders]

Is Valpo out of timeouts?

I had trouble telling with their graphics.  But, I think yes, early on.

Bryce burned the last one with 5 or 6 minutes left. TOs go quick when you give up double digit runs early in each half.

[agibson]

Hopefully we can pull it together in Horizon League play, maybe find a come-from-behind win against Milwaukee or Oakland, or while laying an egg against a lesser opponent.

Going to come quickly, unfortunately.  Warmup/rebound against UIC at the ARC, but then to Oakland on ESPN2, @Detroit less than 48 hours later.  Then Thursday back at the ARC hosting Milwaukee.

[talksalot]

Belmont box...
00* CARTER 16 5-12 3-6 3-4   3 5 4     
02* WALKER 13 4-9 2-4 3-4   1 0 5     
05* WALKER 2 1-6 0-3 0-0   1 0 1     
14* FERNANDEZ 2 1-4 0-0 0-2   8 1 2     
25* PETERS 13 3-11 2-5 5-6   10 0 4      double-double
10 SKARA 13 5-6 1-1 2-2   5 1 3     
11 HAMMINK 19 7-11 1-3 4-7   3 2 4     
23 ADEKOYA 3 1-1 0-0 1-2   4 0 2     

TOTALS 81 27-60 9-22 18-27   36 9 25     
GAME PCT 45.0 40.9 66.7   

THIS HALF  16-30 6-12 10-14   18 6 17     
HALF PCT 53.3 50.0 71.4

[justducky]

Well thought out and executed game plan by Belmont. Their play seemed to dictate all our lineup choices. A healthy non-redshirted Derrik Smits might have gotten significant minutes tonight. Some easy buckets from Vashil could also have helped.

[valpocleveland]

Not sure why they are discounting the OSU win but cannot disagree with his assessment:

"Thanks in large part to a 26-point, 10-rebound night from forward Evan Bradds, Belmont knocked off Valparaiso 85-81 Monday night, and that probably does it for the Crusaders' at-large NCAA tournament hopes. There's never shame in losing to Rick Byrd's team in Nashville, of course, even if the Bruins were just one game over .500 coming in. Yet Valpo -- which is one of the best defensive teams in the country, features one of best all-around scoring threats in forward Alec Peters, and, at least statistically, may be the best true mid-major of the 2015-16 season -- will nonetheless start conference play Saturday with only one semi-noteworthy win (Nov. 17 at Rhode Island), in a conference (the Horizon League) where almost every opponent will be a high-risk, low-reward RPI scenario. If Bryce Drew's team is going to generate some sleeper March excitement, it will almost certainly have to win its conference tournament beforehand. Bummer."

Eamonn Brennan ESPN

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2674/valparaiso-crusaders

[StlVUFan]

Oregon State is by far the most impressive win on the Valpo schedule.  Without a doubt.

The venue was excellent.  I thought parking was going to be a problem but there was a space right there on the street in front of the building.

They princeton-ed us to death.

I was shocked when I looked at the scoreboard (in the 2nd half, I think) and saw they had more turnovers than we did.

As for the officiating, we got away with a number of clear-outs in the first half and I thought Hammink fouled Bradshaw (?) on that breakaway in the 2nd half.  If we hit our free throws, we might have won.

I'm not sure how we weren't prepared for those cuts and crisp passes since they did the same thing at Valpo.  This time, I get the feeling Belmont did better against our zone.

Definitely a bummer, and it will definitely hurt our chances at an at-large.  Of course, us getting an at-large was always a long shot anyway.  Sure, if we were 13-0 right now, we'd be in the running.  And if frogs had wings, they wouldn't bump their ass when jumping over logs.  13-0 was always a long shot.

Sitting 4 rows behind the bench was actually a great seat, unlike at the ARC.  No obstructions, other than idiot fans standing up and greeting each other right in front of me while the game is going on...

When Valpo got the delay of game warning, I actually was able to pick up Bryce asking the ref which guy it was, and then yelling down to Darien, "don't do that".

Tomorrow's going to be interesting.  I'm planning to drive to UIC to take in their game against NIU, and I'm trying to track what the weather is going to be like tomorrow evening.  Todd said lots of people in Valpo lost power tonight?

[wh]

We're 40% into the season at this point, so I don't expect any dramatic player transformations going forward. For better or for worse, we are who we are.

That said I think it's fairly safe to say that Vashil will not be making the quantum leap over last year that everyone hoped when he was granted an extra year of eligibility. He continues to struggle to catch the ball cleanly, his timing on feeds over the top is off, he struggles to finish at the rim, his rebounding numbers are down, his shooting percentage is down, and his FT shooting has gone from bad to worse.  He clearly is not as active around the rim, and I have to wonder if the 20 lbs. he picked up in the off season puts him above his ideal playing weight.

I don't know what else to say about Darien except his inability to score with any consistency is killing us offensively. He can't hit from distance and he can't break down a defender off the dribble. As others have mentioned, his minutes need to be greatly reduced at this point.

Lastly (and this may surprise some people), I see little, if any, improvement in Alec's game from last season. He does a lot of good things, and he's still the MVP of the team, but he looks eerily similar to the Alec of last season. At times he dominates, yet he also disappears for long stretches. He's clearly no longer in the same category as Oakland's Felder, who has taken his game to a whole new level.

[atkins]

This team continues to display flashes of brilliance but bunches of mediocrity.  Frustratingly inconsistent, average at the line, lethargic on offense, etc.  We are fortunate that we do not have to face power conference teams in the Horizon.  To date, we have performed like a middle-of-the-pack power conference team.  The regression is troubling.

[a3uge]

This team continues to display flashes of brilliance but bunches of mediocrity.  Frustratingly inconsistent, average at the line, lethargic on offense, etc.  We are fortunate that we do not have to face power conference teams in the Horizon.  To date, we have performed like a middle-of-the-pack power conference team.  The regression is troubling.

If we faced power conference teams in conference, we'd be in a power conference.

??

[StlVUFan]

Not sure why they are discounting the OSU win but cannot disagree with his assessment:

This guy got it right: http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2015/12/28/late-night-snacks-rough-night-for-mid-major-bubble-hopefuls/

[agibson]

Tomorrow's going to be interesting.  I'm planning to drive to UIC to take in their game against NIU, and I'm trying to track what the weather is going to be like tomorrow evening.  Todd said lots of people in Valpo lost power tonight?

Lots of rain (2"?) lots of ice (1/2" of slushy on my driveway?).  Around 20,000 customers without power, half restored.

I guess when it turned from rain to snow in the afternoon the interstates were full of disabled vehicles.

I bet the major roads are fine now, plows have had time to clean up, etc.

Hovering a little above freezing now, roads may slick up again where salt has washed away later on when it dips below freezing again.

I'm guessing things won't be -too- bad, but drive carefully (and watch for potholes!).

[crusadermoe]

Like all, I was excited by the flashes of brilliance in pre-conference.   Yes, our talent should dominate the Horizon.

However........let's remind ourselves of a bit of reality!!   Oakland and K. Felder took Michigan State to O.T. and they beat Washington while we have regressed since the OSU win.  We play at Oakland early, Jan. 8.   Lose and there is no better than a 50-50 shot of winning the conference if we play at the level we do now.  Forget the power conferences until we get an offensive flow.   If Oakland win decisively, the Valpo psychological advantage of ranking in the #40s nationally goes away. 

Also, Milwaukee not only beat Wisconsin, but beat Minnesota.  Yes, the gophers are mid-RPI team, but two Big Ten wins by Milwaukee is what it is.  The 2002 team didn't do that. So two Horizon teams are contenders and the tourney is in Detroit.   After OSU win, I thought we would just keep getting better by melding in Hammink's power conference talent with a great group of returnees.   Let's hope Tevonn's return corrects the offensive flow after several days of practicing before the Oakland game January 8.  It will set the tone for the our Horizon season.   At -large was gone after the Ball State game.  If I hear that term again on this board, I will puke.

[a3uge]

Like all, I was excited by the flashes of brilliance in pre-conference.   Yes, our talent should dominate the Horizon.

However........let's remind ourselves of a bit of reality!!   Oakland and K. Felder took Michigan State to O.T. and they beat Washington while we have regressed since the OSU win.  We play at Oakland early, Jan. 8.   Lose and there is no better than a 50-50 shot of winning the conference if we play at the level we do now.  Forget the power conferences until we get an offensive flow.   If Oakland win decisively, the Valpo psychological advantage of ranking in the #40s nationally goes away. 

Also, Milwaukee not only beat Wisconsin, but beat Minnesota.  Yes, the gophers are mid-RPI team, but two Big Ten wins by Milwaukee is what it is.  The 2002 team didn't do that. So two Horizon teams are contenders and the tourney is in Detroit.   After OSU win, I thought we would just keep getting better by melding in Hammink's power conference talent with a great group of returnees.   Let's hope Tevonn's return corrects the offensive flow after several days of practicing before the Oakland game January 8.  It will set the tone for the our Horizon season.   At -large was gone after the Ball State game.  If I hear that term again on this board, I will puke.

Oakland also played a tight game at home vs Chicago State. If you're going to judge them for games they didn't win, you have to look at poor performances in games that they did win.

[valpo64]

This xseason there appears to be a big weakness in the middle and around the basket,  both on offense and defense...let's face it, Vashil is MIA so far this year.

[a3uge]

This xseason there appears to be a big weakness in the middle and around the basket,  both on offense and defense...let's face it, Vashil is MIA so far this year.

He actually has a lower defensive rating than last year. Recency bias suggests he's been MIA defensively. Offensively, he's never really arrived in the first place.

[valpo95]

The loss at Belmont isn't as much of an issue as the loss at Ball State. At the end of the season, one could make a pretty good case for an at large bid with four losses as follows: OCC losses at Oregon and Belmont and in-conference losses at say Milwaukee and at Oakland. If the fifth loss of the season ends up as a close loss in the HL championship, then it wouldn't be unrealistic to have a good shot an at-large bid. The Ball State loss is going to look far worse to the selection committee.

Of course, just win the HL tourney and it isn't an issue.