2015-16 Conference Record

[justducky]

Everybody has total familiarity with who we are, what we do, and how we try to do it. We have never worn a bigger target. 16-2 looks like the best we can expect to do and I wouldn't be shocked with as many as 4 losses. I'll go with the best case 16-2.

[HC]

And we know everything everyone else does. Them knowing what Valpo does and actually being able to stop it are two different things. come on 17-1!

[a3uge]

Sagarin gives us a 75% chance to finish with 3 losses or less. 15% to go 26-4 or better. I'm going to say 15-3, because winning on the road is though.

[Smj]

Have any of you watched the ooc games for other teams?    We have some good teams this year.   I think we will be surprised and we can't  expect to be running on all cylinders for every game.

More losses than you all expect. ...   (but still first place)

Go Valpo!

[justducky]

Them knowing what Valpo does and actually being able to stop it are two different things. come on 17-1!

My own interpretation is that a 17-1 or 18-0 finish might be necessary for serious at-large consideration. HC seems to be standing alone with that kind of optimism.

Come on! 14 voters and only 4 of us have gone on record! You should never be ashamed to publicly display either your brilliance or your ignorance. Get in here and vote and then post your thinking! Cowards!

[HC]

I never pick against Valpo, and have been wrong only a few times over the past few years.

[a3uge]

If we finish 17-1 or 18-0, there's no way we lose in the conference tournament. That would be about as likely as finishing with 0 or 1 losses in the first place.

[justducky]

If we finish 17-1 or 18-0, there's no way we lose in the conference tournament.

Strange things can happen. Remember that NIT trip to Miami? Kevin was banged up by Detroit, and most of the rest of the team was down with the flu. I think one or two players couldn't even make the trip. The result was not pretty or consistent with potential.

[agibson]

If we finish 17-1 or 18-0, there's no way we lose in the conference tournament.

In a fit of holiday procrastination, let's play with the numbers a little.

RPI Forecast (fed by Sagarin ratings) gives us a 3% chance to win out, and makes the @Oakland game a toss-up.  So, figure we've got a 6% chance to win "all games, not accounting for @Oakland".

Glance at RPI Forecast (fed by Sugaring ratings), and without crunching _all_ the numbers, looks like we've got about a 25% chance of going 17-0 or 16-1 if we neglect the @Oakland game, which currently reads as a toss-up. 

25% is large enough that you wouldn't be surprised if it happened, even if Sagarin's got the league ratings about right and 25% is an accurate prediction. 

Similarly, it'd be no shock if we won @Oakalnd in a toss-up.  And, if we consider the tournament final an Oakland home game, again no shock if we lost @Oakland in the final in a toss-up.

So, going 17-1 and then losing to Oakland in the final seems perfectly plausible.

That would be about as likely as finishing with 0 or 1 losses in the first place.

Put it another way, 15.7% chance of entering the tournament at 26-3 or 25-4.  Maybe a 50-60% chance of losing a tournament game, if we count it as an Oakland home game.  Maybe 45-55% if we count it as neutral.  (RPI Forecast has us 48% to win at Oakland, 71% in Valpo).  Again, making some rough estimates of some of those numbers.

So, yeah, not _that_ different.

Of course, if we do win all those games, our Sagarin probably goes up, and the predicted odds of winning the tournament will probably rise.

[valpocleveland]

15-3

Lose a game on the Det/Oak road trip
Lose a game on the GB/Mil road trip
Lose a game at home

[crusadermoe]

Agreed with you, ValpoCleveland.    15-3.    And I think 4+ losses more  likely than two or less.

[valpo84]

If you have been on the road to some of these places in HL, you understand the difficulty.  It is a shame that "at large" consideration by the committee doesn't recognize or appreciate the life of a mid-major on the road.  Someone should do a good article about a road trip to Green Bay/Milw or Cleve St/YSU.  Anyway, I went with 14-4 (Oakland otr, and one from on each of these road trips WSU/NKU otr, Detroit/Oak otr and GB/Milw otr). We should sweep UIC.  We need to hold serve at home although, could be surprised there (aka Detroit regular season game from '12 or '13).  I see a 16-2 as exceeding expectations.  These are 18-23 year olds and sometimes you just never know what you'll get...

[zvillehaze]

I went with 15-3, which appears to be the consensus.

[VUSWIM08-12]

Hmmmm, I'll go 16-2...OU could beat us especially if Felder gets 30+...hopefully the other isn't to a team above 150 rpi!!

[atkins]

We are streaky.  14-4 seems realistic. 

[78crusader]

We are not playing as well as we did last year. And the league is tougher -- the top half, anyway.

14-4 is most likely. Would not rule out 13-5.

Paul

[VULB#62]

We are not playing as well as we did last year. And the league is tougher -- the top half, anyway. 14-4 is most likely. Would not rule out 13-5.

We are streaky.  14-4 seems realistic. 

Have we had a good discussion on the possible reasons for this up to now?  Injuries?  Complacency? Internal friction? Tactics? What?  I'm stumped, but then, I am not as close to the MBB program as most.

[a3uge]

We are not playing as well as we did last year.

Again, statistically we're in better shape than where we were, both at the beginning of conference play, and where we ended up.

[justducky]

We are not playing as well as we did last year. And the league is tougher -- the top half, anyway.

14-4 is most likely. Would not rule out 13-5.

Yes the league is much tougher and I wouldn't rule out 13-5 either but there is little evidence that we are not playing as well as last year.

Last years team faced an OOC schedule with one team better than RPI 140. This year with fewer OOC games 6 were against sub-110 opponents. OK we only lost 2 OOC in 2014 vs 3 this year but I would wager that this years bunch would have beaten last years New Mexico and Missouri quite easily.


I still wish our OOC schedule could have been further improved. Even another road loss against any top 50 should have been better than that big win at Chicago St. Then add one more top 100 and maybe we wouldn't have even traveled to Muncie. Coulda woulda shouda.

[wh]

Have we had a good discussion on the possible reasons for this up to now?  Injuries?  Complacency? Internal friction? Tactics? What?  I'm stumped, but then, I am not as close to the MBB program as most.

We needed a bigger scoring punch against Ball State which Tevonn and David would have given us, and better D against Belmont which E would have provided. No doubt in my mind that we would otherwise be 12-1 right now.

I think we also need to ask why with all of our depth and experience weren't we able to overcome 1 or 2 missing players and beat 2 respectable but not great mid major programs on the road? I'm sure we could point to several things, but probably none bigger than Darrien's shooting slump.

IF we can remain at full strength from here on out and IF Darien breaks out of his slump, there is no one in the HL that can match up with us both offensively and defensively. I see no worse than 16-2, maybe even better. If, however, we continue to deal with intermittent injuries and inconsistent shooting, well that's another story.

[bbtds]

because winning on the road is though.

Though winning on the road is tough, I thought Valpo can can do it 7 out of 9 times in the HL, though there will be some tough close games I thought the Crusaders will win.

[covufan]

I'm going with 16-2, although 15-3 is possible. I don't think we or the HL will be worthy of the at large berth. We'll be close, and I hope that it doesn't come down to at large for us


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