The Detroit Trip -- Games 15 and 16

[valpospartan]

Kahlil Felder was getting accolades from Dick Vitale last night during the KU-OU game. He had Felder as a first team all-American.

I can hear Dookie V gushing from here.   

[oklahomamick]

Valpo comes into conference play as the clear-cut favorite to win the Horizon this season as they have a few solid scorers and one of the best defenses in the country that ranks in the top 10 in both scoring defense and defensive FG %. Oakland is an exciting, high scoring team to watch and has one of the best players in the country in point-guard Kahlil Felder. Valpo has struggled against Oakland (3-7) last ten games, however, this Crusaders team is just too solid defensively to be only favored by only a few points against the Oakland.  I know its a gut check, do-or-die game for Oakland but I'm taking Valpo cover in this one. [/size]

[talksalot]

the OverUnder on the game is 154; with a 2.5/spread they are predicting a 78-76 kind of game...Grizz' have only been held under 80 twice (Win at Toledo and Loss at Virginia)

From the OU game notes:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/oakl/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2015-16/release/release_20160107aaa.pdf

Oakland scores 100+ points 1-0
Oakland scores 90-99 points 3-2
Oakland scores 80-89 points 4-3
Oakland scores 70-79 points 1-0
Oakland scores 60-69 points
Oakland scores 50-59 points 0-1

Opponent scores 100+ points 0-1
Opponent scores 90-99 points 1-3
Opponent scores 80-89 points 2-1
Opponent scores 70-79 points 2-1
Opponent scores 60-69 points 2-0
Opponent scores 50-59 points 2-0

> Oakland's last 10 games against Valpo have been decided by 6 points or less or have gone to OT with the Golden Grizzlies holding a 7-3 record over that span.

Jan. 26, 2006 Rochester, Mich. L 95-89
Jan. 11, 2007 Valparaiso, Ind. L 81-76
Feb. 10, 2007 Rochester, Mich. L 64-61
Dec. 21, 2010 Rochester, Mich. W 103-102
Dec. 17, 2011 Valparaiso, Ind. L 82-80
Dec. 17, 2012 Rochester, Mich. L 70-68
Jan. 4, 2014 Rochester, Mich. L 75-70
Feb. 9, 2014 Valparaiso, Ind. W 63-60
Jan. 2, 2015 Rochester, Mich. L(ot) 89-75
Feb. 8, 2015 Valparaiso, Ind. W 82-76


Speaking of January 8th....it's been a while since we won on the road on the 8th of January....

We've played 9 times in the past 20 years, with a 5-4 record..., 1-3 on the road.  Last Road win on January 8th was 1998!

1/8/15 - Home - Beat UIC 85-56
1/8/12 - Road - Loss Wright 73-55
1/8/10 - Road - Loss UDM  77-67
1/8/09 - Home - Beat UDM 64-41
1/8/05 - Home - Loss ORU 75-68
1/8/04 - Road - Loss UMKC 60-59
1/8/98 - Road - Beat SUU 79-70 <<!
1/8/97 - Home - Beat Buff 72-55
1/8/96 - Home - Beat EIU 83-66

[covufan]

We've played 9 times in the past 20 years, with a 5-4 record..., 1-3 on the road.  Last Road win on January 8th was 1998!

From my recollection, 1998 was a good year.

[agibson]

> Oakland's last 10 games against Valpo have been decided by 6 points or less or have gone to OT with the Golden Grizzlies holding a 7-3 record over that span.

I'd forgotten that 103-102 game was in regulation.

And, notable that "last ten" begins on 3 Valpo losses... immediately following a 16-0 win streak.

[agibson]

And, notable that "last ten" begins on 3 Valpo losses... immediately following a 16-0 win streak.

I had forgotten that it's 19-7 all time. That the Jan. 26, 2006 Valpo loss @Oakland where the Oakland game notes start their accounting is the first time Oakland had _ever_ beaten us.

[valporun]

I thought 103-102 was an OT game in their home tournament?

[valpo4life]

I thought 103-102 was an OT game in their home tournament?

Nope. Finished in regulation. Was almost a massive collapse after being up double digits with about 1:30 left. Quite the game to attend, however.

[agibson]

I thought 103-102 was an OT game in their home tournament?

Half right, I think.

http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/boxscore/2010-11/2004/valpo-vs-oakland-12-21-2010/

http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/valpo-takes-lou-henson-award-tournament-title-with-103-102-comeback-over-oakland

Was somehow a "reward" from CollegeInsider to host a tournament when your player, their center Keith Benson in that case, wins their midmajor of the year award.  Not sure if they still play the tournament - googling I only easily find reference to that one instance.

[agibson]

A few years ago their was a nice formula, which worked for a while like "every time Valpo scores at least 65 points, they win", and "every time Rowdy scores at least 20 points, Valpo wins", something like that.

I was hoping such a simple formula might again hold true this year, but I'm not finding anything that's likely to provide mid-game validation tonight. 

Every time Valpo holds their opponent to 64 or less, they win?  Might work for 65, or even 68...

That one works 11-0, but it's not very satisfying.  Hard to have any confidence that you're going to stick to that number until the final buzzer.

3-0 when Tevonn scores 15 or more (Oregon State, Missouri State, Iona)
I wouldn't want to pin my hopes on it, but that could work tonight...

3-0 when Shane its at least four rebounds (Oregon State, Iona, Chicago State).

I don't have much here...

Ideas?

[wh]

A few years ago their was a nice formula, which worked for a while like "every time Valpo scores at least 65 points, they win", and "every time Rowdy scores at least 20 points, Valpo wins", something like that.

I was hoping such a simple formula might again hold true this year, but I'm not finding anything that's likely to provide mid-game validation tonight.  Every time Valpo holds their opponent to 64 or less, they win?  Might work for 65, or even 68... But not very satisfying - hard to have any confidence that you're going to stick to that number until the final buzzer.

Ideas?

Maybe this will help:

•We are 0-3 in away games in which our opponent scored 69 or more points. 
• Last year's game at Oakland was tied at 71 in regulation before Oakland went in to win in O.T.

Holding them in the 60's tonight will almost assure a victory. A game in the middle 70's or higher becomes far more iffy.

[talksalot]

We are undefeated when we outscore our opponents.

[agibson]

We are undefeated when we outscore our opponents.

I do enjoy this one in the VU game notes.

[mb230611]

We are undefeated when we outscore our opponents.

I do enjoy this one in the VU game notes.

On a similar note, I usually enjoy coaches answering the "How do you win this game?" type of question with something along the lines of "By scoring more than our opponents." No need to complicate things!

I think it speaks for this rivalry (at least after your 16-game streak ended, haha) that it's hard to find many trends that will indicate which team should/will win. A variety of game styles, scores all over the place, overtime, down to the last possession, etc. Hoping it will be just as exciting tonight.

[wh]

One thing I've noticed that is unique to Oakland is it's tendency to shoot 3's early in the clock over the last 3 or 4 minutes of the game, whether they're leading or behind. If they're up, they use the 3 as a dagger. If they're behind, they use the 3 to try to catch up more quickly than most teams. When they're on, they end a lot of games with a flourish. When they're not, they're a lot easier to close out than most opponents. High risk, high reward. Nothing's "normal" about a Kampe coached team. In any event we'd better get out and guard Hooper and the left handed 2-guard ? Because they will be jacking it.

[agibson]

Nothing's "normal" about a Kampe coached team.

I'd temporarily forgotten about the "nobody rebounding when we're shooting FT's"!  Despite Kampe's beautiful email explaining.

Should be a fun one.

(But, frankly, I'm _not_ hoping it's close! I'd much prefer a decisive win! I think I could handle "close for a half", or even, "VU down eight at the half, but comes back quickly in third quarter".)

[justducky]

Holding them in the 60's tonight will almost assure a victory. A game in the middle 70's or higher becomes far more iffy.

I am not predicting disaster but a game in the mid 70's or lower will surprise me and one in the 60's would almost be a shock!  As good as our defense is Oakland knows how to score the ball in a hurry.

I expect us to trail for much of this ballgame.

[mb230611]

One thing I've noticed that is unique to Oakland is it's tendency to shoot 3's early in the clock over the last 3 or 4 minutes of the game, whether they're leading or behind. If they're up, they use the 3 as a dagger. If they're behind, they use the 3 to try to catch up more quickly than most teams. When they're on, they end a lot of games with a flourish. When they're not, they're a lot easier to close out than most opponents. High risk, high reward. Nothing's "normal" about a Kampe coached team. In any event we'd better get out and guard Hooper and the left handed 2-guard ? Because they will be jacking it.

Yeah, it can either be a big blessing or a big curse. I think the left-hander you're referring to is Nick Daniels (#2). On an interesting note, now that Martez Walker is eligible there could be five lefties on the court at the same time if Kampe uses a lineup of Walker, Felder, Daniels, Hayes, and Gibson.

Felder's quickness and ability to penetrate open him up for a lot of threes too, as he often shoots when defenders are caught on their heels anticipating him driving past the three-point line. And #30, Sherron Dorsey-Walker, often brings the ball up even when Felder's in the game with him. So if someone is hawking Felder off the ball, that's another way that Hooper or Daniels could get open for a quick three. The coaching decisions and Oakland's offense vs. Valpo's defense should be a lot of fun to watch, and if one team really steps up in the "other" area (Oakland's defense or Valpo's offense), that could be the difference.

[bbtds]

On an interesting note, now that Martez Walker is eligible there could be five lefties on the court at the same time if Kampe uses a lineup of Walker, Felder, Daniels, Hayes, and Gibson.

An almost equally interesting note that was mentioned when Oakland acquired their second Walker is that there could be 4 Walkers on the court at the same time in tonight's game.

Walker passes to Walker who is guarded by Walker. Walker shoots and misses and Walker gets the rebound. Oh, the humanity!

[wh]

Holding them in the 60's tonight will almost assure a victory. A game in the middle 70's or higher becomes far more iffy.

I am not predicting disaster but a game in the mid 70's or lower will surprise me and one in the 60's would almost be a shock!  As good as our defense is Oakland knows how to score the ball in a hurry.

I expect us to trail for much of this ballgame.

The O/U is 152, meaning an expectation by the oddsmakers of a game somewhere in the mid 70's with Valpo prevailing by 2 or 3.  It will be interesting to see how accurate they are.

[justducky]

Walker passes to Walker who is guarded by Walker. Walker shoots and misses and Walker gets the rebound. Oh, the humanity!

What poor chumps did ESPN 2 assign to this impossible task?

[vu72]

So I'm really interested in matchups tonight.  At one point during the UIC game Bryce had Scara, Peters, Vashil, Hammink and Tevonn on the floor at the same time.  Presuming E is ready we could theoretically go with E, Shane, Vashil Alec and Skara at the same time.  How does Kampe matchup with a 6'8, 6'7, 6'10, 6'9 and 6'8???

Other then Gibson at 6'9 their next biggest guy on the regular first 7 is 6'7.  Their guards are decent size but aren't 6'7 or 6'8.  I'm going to guess that part of our stretegy tonight is to go big and force the outside shot.

[justducky]

How does Kampe matchup with a 6'8, 6'7, 6'10, 6'9 and 6'8???

With a smaller, quicker lineup that can beat us down the floor. Unfortunately our big lineup isn't our best 3 point shooting or ball handling unit.

I'm going to guess that part of our stretegy tonight is to go big and force the outside shot.

I expect that we will try it, but I am less than certain of its success.

[VULB#62]

With the big line-up, the front 3 have to score in the paint and dominate the offensive boards PLUS our tall guards can't get caught in deep.  But Ducky is right -- little in the way of 3 pt shooting to allow this to work, so OU will collapse on the bigs.

[HC]

Don't think I made my score prediction yet, I know you all have been waiting....

Valpo wins 78-72 over Oakland