1/22 - Wright State @ Nutter Center

[talksalot]

Sorta surprised there are still so many good seat available for this game....

http://www.ticketmaster.com/wright-state-raiders-mens-basketball-vs-dayton-ohio-01-22-2016/event/16004F36831A0F71?artistid=843553&majorcatid=10004&minorcatid=7&tm_link=venue_msg-0_16004F36831A0F71

[agibson]

The big thing is our bebounding advantage at plus 9.5 to their minus 1.6.

That could get ugly for Wright State. I'm waiting for the league to start publishing conference-game-only stats.  Our rebound margin then is *sick*.

[a3uge]

The big thing is our bebounding advantage at plus 9.5 to their minus 1.6.

That could get ugly for Wright State. I'm waiting for the league to start publishing conference-game-only stats.  Our rebound margin then is *sick*.

Statsheet used to have this data. Sucks they were sold.

[hailcrusaders]

The big thing is our bebounding advantage at plus 9.5 to their minus 1.6.

That could get ugly for Wright State. I'm waiting for the league to start publishing conference-game-only stats.  Our rebound margin then is *sick*.

Statsheet used to have this data. Sucks they were sold.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/valparaiso/2016.html
We're +108 through 6 conference games, an average of +18

[talksalot]

Raider Conference-Only Stats

http://www.wsuraiders.com/fls/27000/legacy/m-baskbl/1516Stats/League.pdf

[agibson]

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/valparaiso/2016.html
We're +108 through 6 conference games, an average of +18

Sorry to be dense, but where on that page is the rebound margin?

It seemed like the sort of thing they might have, so I did spend some time looking there the other day, and again now.  Didn't quickly come up with it.

[Valpower]

Starters for their Youngstown Game...
                                                    ppg and rpg and notes
3 Mark Hughes (6-4, 180, Fr., G)* 3.1 2.7 11 points at Milwaukee
13 Grant Benzinger (6-3, 190, So., G) * 8.6 2.3 5 threes vs Cleveland St
14 Michael Karena (6-10, 270, Sr., C) * 9.6 3.8 16 points vs Cleveland St
23 Mark Alstork (6-5, 190, So., G) * 11.9 4.7 18/6 at NKU
32 Joe Thomasson (6-4,165, Sr., G) * 9.8 5.1 21 points at Milwaukee

So we start 6'10", 6'9" and 6'8" up front and 6'2" and 6'2" in the backcourt.  Their guards are bigger until 6'7" and 6'8" come into the game.  It will depend on hitting shots and rebounding.  They are leading the league in FG% at 46.3 but are allowing 63.8 to our 60 ppg.  The big thing is our bebounding advantage at plus 9.5 to their minus 1.6.  I'm looking for a 7 point win on their floor, 68-60

WSU is the HL team most like us.  In conference play (forget OOC), through 6 games (3 home and 3 away) we both shot 126 3-pointers and we made one more than their 43.  We shoot about the same overall and the scoring attempts and minutes are spread out among multiple players in very similar fashion.  Where we differ notably is at center and the significant factor is that they are not a shot-blocking team at all (5 total in 6 games) and we have Vashil.  In general, Karena is more of a scorer, but Vashil seems to have found an offensive side in conference play that he'll want to bring to help keep things in balance as far as fouls are concerned.  In addition, we have gotten to the charity stripe more than they (153 to 108) and shot better (75% to 69%) and I expect that to continue if they try to limit our rebounds.

[hailcrusaders]

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/valparaiso/2016.html We're +108 through 6 conference games, an average of +18

Sorry to be dense, but where on that page is the rebound margin? It seemed like the sort of thing they might have, so I did spend some time looking there the other day, and again now.  Didn't quickly come up with it.

The fourth red tab down is "Conference Team and Opponent Stats." The 'TRB' column (total rebounds) shows that we are outrebounding conferencing opponents 287-179, for a margin of +108.

[hailcrusaders]

What's perhaps more remarkable is that we have 92 offensive rebounds to our opponents' 119 defensive rebounds (in conference play). Thus, we have roughly a 44% rebounding rate on shots we miss. That's incredible.

[ValpoHoops]

Line opens at Valpo -8.5, slides to -8.

[agibson]

Line opens at Valpo -8.5, slides to -8.

It's a little scary being favored by that much, on the road, in a battle between two fairly defensive (#3, #42), fairly slow/methodical (#249, #294 in pace) teams.

[a3uge]

Line opens at Valpo -8.5, slides to -8.

It's a little scary being favored by that much, on the road, in a battle between two fairly defensive (#3, #42), fairly slow/methodical (#249, #294 in pace) teams.

I think every conference game someone has made a remark about the spread being a little too high.

[zvillehaze]

Not sure where to put this, so I'll post it here.  Bryce was on Indianapolis radio this evening.  Tony Donohue is a region guy and big Valpo fan, so he makes sure the Crusaders get some attention in this market.  Here's the link to the podcast:

http://www.1070thefan.com/blogs/ride-jmv/valpo-head-coach-bryce-drew-joins-show

[HC]

Who cares what the spread is...we only have to win by at least 1! Anyways, time for my prediction....

Valpo wins a lopsided game (again) 75-60

[VUfan]

This is the best Defense we have seen in a while, a slow start. VU 72 WSU 67 Close! 

[bbtds]

Not sure where to put this, so I'll post it here.  Bryce was on Indianapolis radio this evening.  Tony Donohue is a region guy and big Valpo fan, so he makes sure the Crusaders get some attention in this market.  Here's the link to the podcast:

http://www.1070thefan.com/blogs/ride-jmv/valpo-head-coach-bryce-drew-joins-show

That's interesting. I didn't know Tony Donohue was from Portage. I don't listen to 1070 as much as I used to because Dan Dakich turns me off.

[agibson]

I'd missed this detail: Wright State trailed by 14 in the second half against Detroit, before coming back, taking the lead for only the final 18 seconds.  Could be exciting. They're undefeated when scoring at least 70, and a win tonight would give them their best league start under Donlon.

[agibson]

Donlon, too, has noticed the conference rebounding statistics
http://www.mydaytondailynews.com/news/sports/college/wsu-looks-for-share-of-league-lead-against-dominan/np87c/

"Six games is a decent window to look at conference stats, and through six league games they get 46 percent of their missed shots," Donlon said ahead of Friday night's showdown for first place in the Horizon League.

"Think about that," Donlon continued. "Basically every two shots that they miss, they get one of them. That is an incredible statistic. That stat, to have any success, has got to come down when you're defending them."

...

"I still think your job defensively when you play them is to do the best you can planning-wise to get them to miss the first shot," Donlon said. "We'll still attack it with that philosophy in mind. But if you get them to miss, they can't get their own rebounds it 46 percent of the time. It can't be 25 percent of the time.

"When you work so hard and get them to miss and they get their own miss, that can be deflating," he added. "Rebounding comes down to some fight and some grit."

...

"But Vashil Fernandez at the rim, there's nothing else like it in the league. His waiver going through, which I'm glad it did because it deserved to go through, was significant for them. They would be good without him, believe me. But he's such a game changer at the other end."

And

The Raiders (11-8, 5-1) rank last in the league in rebounding (32.4)

(OK - they're a low tempo team, so it's not really fair to use that statistic... But, rebounding seems to not be a strength of theirs.)

Nice game day piece (despite a couple of apparent editing errors).

[a3uge]

I like Donlon. We need more coaches like him in the league. I just wish they'd perform better OOC... always seems like they under-perform coming into conference play and then pick it up during the season.

Part of that might be style of play - the slow paced style is always better against the less athletic and smaller Horizon League, but it's hard to beat bigger lineups running only half court sets.

I think the way to beat Valpo is what Belmont and Ball State did to the defense: get 5 shooters on the court and get Vashil away from the basket. Be patient and move the ball until you find an easier basket inside against Peters or Jubril instead of Vashil. You're not going to outsize Valpo and get baskets by feeding the post, and you're not going to score by driving and kicking out for a 3. Belmont was great at getting inside looks, even with Vashil in the game. They had great ball movement and ended up with easy layups. Belmont is an above average 3pt shooting team, and they take a lot of long range shots. But they're #1 in the country in 2pt FG%! Against Valpo they shot 62% from 2PT. I expect Wright State to try much the same, but I don't think they have the same crispness on offense to score many inside points. They're great on defense, but are going to surrender a ton of second chance looks from the size mismatch and Valpo's excellent rebounding.

So Valpo wins.

[agibson]

Belmont is an above average 3pt shooting team, and they take a lot of long range shots. But they're #1 in the country in 2pt FG%! Against Valpo they shot 62% from 2PT.

Their back door cuts, I think that's what you call them, were a thing of beauty.  What passing.

[wh]

A3 and AG - Interesting observations...

[a3uge]

Belmont is an above average 3pt shooting team, and they take a lot of long range shots. But they're #1 in the country in 2pt FG%! Against Valpo they shot 62% from 2PT.

Their back door cuts, I think that's what you call them, were a thing of beauty.  What passing.

Yeah, they were terrible in the first game, but I really understand their strategy now. They shoot a lot of threes to set up good inside looks. Earlier this season I lumped them in with Oakland, now Green Bay, old VMI, but their offense is much more ball movement oriented than  penetration, kick out, jack up a 3.

[classof2014]

Wright State is the most similar team in the HL in terms of style of play. Valpo simply has too much talent and athleticism for Wright State to win. Wright State keeps it "close" about a 10 point margin with a few minutes left, Valpo hits a few free-throws and wins by 13-16.

[valpo4life]

Our coaches and players have had 3 days to prepare for a bad offensive team that is also undersized. I see us taking this one rather easily. Not like Monday where we were seemingly shot out of a cannon, but more of the slow knife approach.

Valpo 67
WSU 48

[agibson]

Valpo simply has too much talent and athleticism for Wright State to win.

I can't quite place the quote, but it made a significant impression on me at the time.  Roy Williams, Valpo @ UNC.  TV game. Not sure if it was December 2007 when they were #1, or November 2009 when they were only #6/4.

In what seemed to me a perfectly smarmy tone, probably trying to be complementary after mentioning some positives about Valpo, but expecting a big win, he said something like "They're just not as athletically gifted as we are.", or "They're simply not as talented."