Potential NCAA Seeding

[ValpoHoops]

I've done this in the past starting with Championship Week, but I thought it would be a fun, revealing exercise to start early. I will include Valpo, as well as any team in the HL who currently holds first place in the standings (this week, that would be Wright State).

A refresher...
Red is bad (these teams would slot ahead of Valpo, based on RPI, if the tournament were seeded today).
Green is good (these teams would slot behind Valpo, based on RPI, if the tournament were seeded today).

At this point, I think it is fair to assume that we sit squarely in the jumble that exists on the bubble...so, for ease of understanding, I will assume that we would have to get an auto-bid in order to make the NCAA Tournament. Thus, every team "behind" us (see: in green) would get slotted in below Valpo on the seed list, and any bubble teams would be ahead of us. This way, we can see what the seeding scenario could look like.



Based on this, and a conference title, Valpo would slot ahead of 25 conference champions (there are 26 on the list, but you would have to exclude WSU). Based solely on RPI rankings, Valpo would slot in as the BEST #11 seed, as of today.

Wright State would be the best of the #16 seeds, avoiding a play-in game, but still facing a #1 seed in their first NCAA Tournament game.



I will update this weekly. I think it will be interesting to see teams move up and down as they continue through conference play.

[ValpoHoops]

This week's update. RPI numbers are current this morning.

We "moved down" two spots this week, getting jumped by Wichita State and VCU.

If the tournament started today, and was seeded strictly by RPI (and assuming, for the sake of assumption, that we were in the "auto-bid only" category and did not beat any at-large teams on the seed list) we would be the third #11 seed.

[Kyle321n]

Great stuff! Could you add a line for each seed line though? It'd be easier to see what the 16s, 15s, 14s, etc were.

[ValpoHoops]

Could you add a line for each seed line though? It'd be easier to see what the 16s, 15s, 14s, etc were.

Ok, maybe next week, I'll think about it.

[Kyle321n]

Oh and RealTimeRPI is kind of terrible for figuring out what RPI is. They use an old formula and it's frequently wrong. LiveRPI, Warren Nolan or even the NCAA site are the best resources for RPI.

Monmouth is ahead of us in RPI. Here's what I figured out.

[ValpoHoops]

Oh and RealTimeRPI is kind of terrible for figuring out what RPI is. They use an old formula and it's frequently wrong. LiveRPI, Warren Nolan or even the NCAA site are the best resources for RPI.

Monmouth is ahead of us in RPI. Here's what I figured out.

My numbers come directly from the NCAA RPI rankings...since that's what I assume the committee would look at.

[Kyle321n]

Oh and RealTimeRPI is kind of terrible for figuring out what RPI is. They use an old formula and it's frequently wrong. LiveRPI, Warren Nolan or even the NCAA site are the best resources for RPI.

Monmouth is ahead of us in RPI. Here's what I figured out.

My numbers come directly from the NCAA RPI rankings...since that's what I assume the committee would look at.

It appears to be off slightly. http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi

[justducky]

My numbers come directly from the NCAA RPI rankings...since that's what I assume the committee would look at.

Since the numbers from the NCAA rankings are identical to the Warren Nolan ranking (for VU) are both using the selection committee adjustments ( .6 home win vs 1.4 road win etc.) or neither. Does the NCAA keep running adjusted numbers or is that a one time post season process?

[oklahomamick]

This may help Valpo in moving up to a better seed.  Louisville to self-impose postseason ban for alleged violations related to prostitution scandal.

[agibson]

I tend to trust both NCAA and WarrenNolan numbers.  I believe morgen both to be accurate when issued (ie yes home/away adjustments are made).  The NCAA numbers are issued, last I checked, periodically (once a week or so?).  Warren Nolan's are updated frequently, and often include a game within an hour or so of its conclusion.

[Kyle321n]

This may help Valpo in moving up to a better seed.  Louisville to self-impose postseason ban for alleged violations related to prostitution scandal.

Wow, they are a low end 4, high end 5 seed. That's crazy.

[Valpower]

Updated Bubble-Watch blurb (still not listed alongside Monmouth, though):

There are some long shot mid-majors seeking at-large status -- teams like Arkansas-Little Rock (17-2, No. 59 RPI), William & Mary (13-6, No. 38 RPI), South Dakota State (16-5, No. 47 RPI), and Valparaiso (17-4, No. 39 RPI) -- whose relatively similar resumes should all be considered on the cusp. (And not necessarily in that order: Valpo's defense ranks No. 1 in adjusted efficiency and is the only of these teams for whom "they're top 25 in KenPom!" could be wielded in the committee room.)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

[Kyle321n]

Updated Bubble-Watch blurb (still not listed alongside Monmouth, though):

I hate to bust our "bubble" on the comparisons to Monmouth (we'd totally crush them. They couldn't handle our height) but our resume isn't even close to comparable.

Our #1 win would be their 3rd best win. They have six Top 100 wins vs. our three. And while they have 3 losses that our worse than our worst loss, they have two top 50 wins, one of which was on the enemy's court. Now had we won in Oregon, things would be totally different. That said, I would currently have both teams on the 10 seed line (stay tuned, on Monday I'm going to reveal a Kyle's Bracketology Bracket.)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Also how is Maryland not a lock? They are on my 2 line! How are there only 6 teams that are "locks"?  What the hell is a lock? A team competing for the 1 line?

[Valpower]

Updated Bubble-Watch blurb (still not listed alongside Monmouth, though):

I hate to bust our "bubble" on the comparisons to Monmouth (we'd totally crush them. They couldn't handle our height) but our resume isn't even close to comparable.

Our #1 win would be their 3rd best win. They have six Top 100 wins vs. our three. And while they have 3 losses that our worse than our worst loss, they have two top 50 wins, one of which was on the enemy's court. Now had we won in Oregon, things would be totally different. That said, I would currently have both teams on the 10 seed line (stay tuned, on Monday I'm going to reveal a Kyle's Bracketology Bracket.)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Also how is Maryland not a lock? They are on my 2 line! How are there only 6 teams that are "locks"?  What the hell is a lock? A team competing for the 1 line?

Sorry, Kyle, but if our RPIs are close, no way are our resumes are "not even close."  Monmouth certainly has more wins against traditional powerhouses, but that doesn't mean their overall accomplishments are better (starting with the idea that the powerhouses may not be as good as we think).  And look, I'm not even going to pat them on the back too much for their scheduling, either.  They were tabbed to be 3rd in the MAAC after an 18-15 season--who was going to be afraid to schedule them? It's not like they returned everybody from a 28-6 Tourney team that took Maryland to the wire.  They surprised some big-conference teams in the beginning of the season and lost to some bad teams since then, but they aren't giant-killers.

[vu72]

Updated Bubble-Watch blurb (still not listed alongside Monmouth, though):

I hate to bust our "bubble" on the comparisons to Monmouth (we'd totally crush them. They couldn't handle our height) but our resume isn't even close to comparable.

Our #1 win would be their 3rd best win. They have six Top 100 wins vs. our three. And while they have 3 losses that our worse than our worst loss, they have two top 50 wins, one of which was on the enemy's court. Now had we won in Oregon, things would be totally different. That said, I would currently have both teams on the 10 seed line (stay tuned, on Monday I'm going to reveal a Kyle's Bracketology Bracket.)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Also how is Maryland not a lock? They are on my 2 line! How are there only 6 teams that are "locks"?  What the hell is a lock? A team competing for the 1 line?

Updated Bubble-Watch blurb (still not listed alongside Monmouth, though):

I hate to bust our "bubble" on the comparisons to Monmouth (we'd totally crush them. They couldn't handle our height) but our resume isn't even close to comparable.

Our #1 win would be their 3rd best win. They have six Top 100 wins vs. our three. And while they have 3 losses that our worse than our worst loss, they have two top 50 wins, one of which was on the enemy's court. Now had we won in Oregon, things would be totally different. That said, I would currently have both teams on the 10 seed line (stay tuned, on Monday I'm going to reveal a Kyle's Bracketology Bracket.)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Also how is Maryland not a lock? They are on my 2 line! How are there only 6 teams that are "locks"?  What the hell is a lock? A team competing for the 1 line?

Sorry, Kyle, but if our RPIs are close, no way are our resumes are "not even close."  Monmouth certainly has more wins against traditional powerhouses, but that doesn't mean their overall accomplishments are better (starting with the idea that the powerhouses may not be as good as we think).  And look, I'm not even going to pat them on the back too much for their scheduling, either.  They were tabbed to be 3rd in the MAAC after an 18-15 season--who was going to be afraid to schedule them? It's not like they returned everybody from a 28-6 Tourney team that took Maryland to the wire.  They surprised some big-conference teams in the beginning of the season and lost to some bad teams since then, but they aren't giant-killers.

[/b]

You mean big-conference teams like Wisconsin and Minnesota, on the road??  Teams that good need to be considered for an at-large!!   

[valpotx]

This may help Valpo in moving up to a better seed.  Louisville to self-impose postseason ban for alleged violations related to prostitution scandal.

Wow, they are a low end 4, high end 5 seed. That's crazy.

Sucks for Trey Lewis, who used the graduate transfer rule to leave Cleveland State for Louisville, so that he could play in the NCAA tourney...

[HC]

There is a joke here somewhere about his recruiting process with Louisville, but I just can't put my finger on it.

[Valpower]

You mean big-conference teams like Wisconsin and Minnesota, on the road??  Teams that good need to be considered for an at-large!!   

Exactly. At least the enthusiasm for that died, though.

[Kyle321n]

Updated Bubble-Watch blurb (still not listed alongside Monmouth, though):

I hate to bust our "bubble" on the comparisons to Monmouth (we'd totally crush them. They couldn't handle our height) but our resume isn't even close to comparable.

Our #1 win would be their 3rd best win. They have six Top 100 wins vs. our three. And while they have 3 losses that our worse than our worst loss, they have two top 50 wins, one of which was on the enemy's court. Now had we won in Oregon, things would be totally different. That said, I would currently have both teams on the 10 seed line (stay tuned, on Monday I'm going to reveal a Kyle's Bracketology Bracket.)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Also how is Maryland not a lock? They are on my 2 line! How are there only 6 teams that are "locks"?  What the hell is a lock? A team competing for the 1 line?

Sorry, Kyle, but if our RPIs are close, no way are our resumes are "not even close."  Monmouth certainly has more wins against traditional powerhouses, but that doesn't mean their overall accomplishments are better (starting with the idea that the powerhouses may not be as good as we think).  And look, I'm not even going to pat them on the back too much for their scheduling, either.  They were tabbed to be 3rd in the MAAC after an 18-15 season--who was going to be afraid to schedule them? It's not like they returned everybody from a 28-6 Tourney team that took Maryland to the wire.  They surprised some big-conference teams in the beginning of the season and lost to some bad teams since then, but they aren't giant-killers.

You seem to be missing the point that they won against USC who is 16th in RPI and Notre Dame who is 36th in RPI. That's 2 for sure NCAA teams (well ND needs another big win to be for sure but their conference tourney should give them one). The middle of their conference is better than ours and the only reason they are near us in RPI is their 5 losses to our 4.

Our best win is Oregon State at 55, their 3rd best win is UCLA who is 70th... Ooh and Georgetown at 73. Our second best win is 82nd Belmont. Ignoring the team names they have 4 better wins in terms of RPI than our 2nd.

Sent from my XT1058 using Tapatalk

[Valpower]

Updated Bubble-Watch blurb (still not listed alongside Monmouth, though):

I hate to bust our "bubble" on the comparisons to Monmouth (we'd totally crush them. They couldn't handle our height) but our resume isn't even close to comparable.

Our #1 win would be their 3rd best win. They have six Top 100 wins vs. our three. And while they have 3 losses that our worse than our worst loss, they have two top 50 wins, one of which was on the enemy's court. Now had we won in Oregon, things would be totally different. That said, I would currently have both teams on the 10 seed line (stay tuned, on Monday I'm going to reveal a Kyle's Bracketology Bracket.)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Also how is Maryland not a lock? They are on my 2 line! How are there only 6 teams that are "locks"?  What the hell is a lock? A team competing for the 1 line?

Sorry, Kyle, but if our RPIs are close, no way are our resumes are "not even close."  Monmouth certainly has more wins against traditional powerhouses, but that doesn't mean their overall accomplishments are better (starting with the idea that the powerhouses may not be as good as we think).  And look, I'm not even going to pat them on the back too much for their scheduling, either.  They were tabbed to be 3rd in the MAAC after an 18-15 season--who was going to be afraid to schedule them? It's not like they returned everybody from a 28-6 Tourney team that took Maryland to the wire.  They surprised some big-conference teams in the beginning of the season and lost to some bad teams since then, but they aren't giant-killers.

You seem to be missing the point that they won against USC who is 16th in RPI and Notre Dame who is 36th in RPI. That's 2 for sure NCAA teams (well ND needs another big win to be for sure but their conference tourney should give them one). The middle of their conference is better than ours and the only reason they are near us in RPI is their 5 losses to our 4.

Our best win is Oregon State at 55, their 3rd best win is UCLA who is 70th... Ooh and Georgetown at 73. Our second best win is 82nd Belmont. Ignoring the team names they have 4 better wins in terms of RPI than our 2nd.

Sent from my XT1058 using Tapatalk

I'm not missing it. They lost against USC at their home and won on a neutral court.  Could we not expect the same or better, given the opportunity?  I'm not impressed with USC. They're a football school.

[historyman]

There is a joke here somewhere about his recruiting process with Louisville, but I just can't put my finger on it.

This may help Valpo in moving up to a better seed.  Louisville to self-impose postseason ban for alleged violations related to prostitution scandal.

Wow, they are a low end 4, high end 5 seed. That's crazy.

Sucks for Trey Lewis, who used the graduate transfer rule to leave Cleveland State for Louisville, so that he could play in the NCAA tourney...

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/college/louisville/2016/02/05/sources-u-l-imposing-postseason-hoops-ban/79878760/


Do you wonder if Gary Waters is having a slightly more enjoyable season after this announcement?

[wh]

This may help Valpo in moving up to a better seed.  Louisville to self-impose postseason ban for alleged violations related to prostitution scandal.

Why would anyone think of hiring prostitutes (complete with STD's and track marks) to attract recruits in this day and age?  85% of college-aged girls give it away. Don't most guys that age have sex anytime they want it?

[bbtds]

This may help Valpo in moving up to a better seed.  Louisville to self-impose postseason ban for alleged violations related to prostitution scandal.

Why would anyone think of hiring prostitutes (complete with STD's and track marks) to attract recruits in this day and age?  85% of college-aged girls give it away. Don't most guys that age have sex anytime they want it?

I think U of Louisville with large sums in it's recruiting budget would be using more of a service such as this

http://www.xojane.com/it-happened-to-me/kristin-davis-defense-prostitution

[SanityLost17]

This may help Valpo in moving up to a better seed.  Louisville to self-impose postseason ban for alleged violations related to prostitution scandal.

Why would anyone think of hiring prostitutes (complete with STD's and track marks) to attract recruits in this day and age?  85% of college-aged girls give it away. Don't most guys that age have sex anytime they want it?

Just for fun, I am going to reverse the order of your sentence.   

85% of college-aged boys give it away.  Don't most girls that age have sex anytime they want it?   We need to stop with the narrative that girls are sluts if they want to have sex, where as guys are just getting laid.  Boys are supposed to pursue and girls are supposed to say no is an outdated and sexist form of thinking.     

Plus, 85% is just ridiculous.  Is that really your view of college aged women?   

[wh]

This may help Valpo in moving up to a better seed.  Louisville to self-impose postseason ban for alleged violations related to prostitution scandal.

Why would anyone think of hiring prostitutes (complete with STD's and track marks) to attract recruits in this day and age?  85% of college-aged girls give it away. Don't most guys that age have sex anytime they want it?

Just for fun, I am going to reverse the order of your sentence.   

85% of college-aged boys give it away.  Don't most girls that age have sex anytime they want it?   We need to stop with the narrative that girls are sluts if they want to have sex, where as guys are just getting laid.  Boys are supposed to pursue and girls are supposed to say no is an outdated and sexist form of thinking.     

Plus, 85% is just ridiculous.  Is that really your view of college aged women?   

You might want to read this:

Kathleen Bogle, Ph.D., author of Hooking Up: Sex, Dating, and Relationships on Campus, says, "What [college students] do not realize is that approximately 25 percent of college students in the United States are virgins.

http://www.hercampus.com/love/truth-about-virginity-college

Or this one:

Among those ages 20-24, 12% of women and 13% of men said they were virgins, up from 8% for both sexes in 2002.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/health/wellness/dating/story/2011/03/More-hookups-on-campuses-but-more-virgins-too/45556388/1

And, like every element of cultural rot in America, it comes with consequences:

However, new research has found that what happens in college doesn't always stay in college. In fact, many students leave their alma mater with more than just a diploma—they leave with a sexually transmitted disease.

According to Stanford University's Sexual Health Peer Resource Center, 1 in 4 college students have an STD.

http://www.everydayhealth.com/columns/dr-laura-berman-on-love-and-sex/stds-in-college-what-students-need-to-know/

Lest we forget about abortion:

According to a 2008 study about 20 percent of women (that's one in five) will have an abortion by the time she is 25. It's hard to know exactly how many of those abortions occur in college-age women, but some statistics estimate as many as 45 percent. It makes sense: college is notorious for sex, but few college women are emotionally or financially prepared to raise a baby.

http://www.hercampus.com/health/sexual-health/are-college-women-getting-abortions

For sake of time I'll forego trends on porn addiction, phone sex, out of wedlock births, related emotional trauma and suicide, cost to society, effect on families, etc., etc.