Potential NCAA Seeding

[historyman]

This may help Valpo in moving up to a better seed.  Louisville to self-impose postseason ban for alleged violations related to prostitution scandal.

Why would anyone think of hiring prostitutes (complete with STD's and track marks) to attract recruits in this day and age?  85% of college-aged girls give it away. Don't most guys that age have sex anytime they want it?

Just for fun, I am going to reverse the order of your sentence.   

85% of college-aged boys give it away.  Don't most girls that age have sex anytime they want it?   We need to stop with the narrative that girls are sluts if they want to have sex, where as guys are just getting laid.  Boys are supposed to pursue and girls are supposed to say no is an outdated and sexist form of thinking.     

Plus, 85% is just ridiculous.  Is that really your view of college aged women?   

I'm not sure you are being exactly PC when you say that. They could be gay. But not in Indiana.

[agibson]

Interesting enough, maybe important, discussion.  But, maybe we should move it out of the NCAA Seeding thread?

[VULB#62]

Interesting enough, maybe important, discussion.  But, maybe we should move it out of the NCAA Seeding thread?

Agreed.  This tangent belongs in General Off Topic if anyone wants to continue to discuss today's morality. And stuff related to the Louisville scandal can go with it.

[historyman]

Interesting enough, maybe important, discussion.  But, maybe we should move it out of the NCAA Seeding thread?

Go right ahead. Be my guest. 

[bbtds]

For sake of time I'll forego trends on porn addiction, phone sex, out of wedlock births, related emotional trauma and suicide, cost to society, effect on families, etc., etc.

Why does Raitis Grafs' face suddenly come to mind?

[ValpoHoops]

Using NCAA RPI numbers, which were updated this morning.

This would slot us in as the 2nd #12 seed, which is down three spots from last week (our RPI went in the tank this week...playing UIC didn't help, and our opponents didn't have a great week either).

We were passed by Monmouth, Chattanooga, San Diego State and South Dakota State. We jumped the SEC leader, as LSU took the conference lead in the standings.






One comment about the Summit and how it has a higher ranking this season...they took cues from what the MAC did last year. They made sure that they scheduled a ton of winnable games (and they try to do it against teams that will end up with good records...so they go to the very bottom of D1 and find the "good teams" from those conferences, if they can). This way, everyone has a good non-conference record, and when they start playing each other, their RPI's all rise.

[oklahomamick]

Not only is the SL ranked higher than us but the last several years they have earned higher seeds?

[wh]

Valpo is a star employee in an organization with bad management, bad employees, and declining results. Hopefully, we're looking for a new employer.

[a3uge]

Not only is the SL ranked higher than us but the last several years they have earned higher seeds?

Not true.

[bbtds]

One comment about the Summit and how it has a higher ranking this season...they took cues from what the MAC did last year. They made sure that they scheduled a ton of winnable games (and they try to do it against teams that will end up with good records...so they go to the very bottom of D1 and find the "good teams" from those conferences, if they can). This way, everyone has a good non-conference record, and when they start playing each other, their RPI's all rise.

Never would have guessed that LeCrone would be so outsmarted by Tom Douple and Jon Steinbrecher, both.

[oklahomamick]

2015 Valpo 13 seed > N. Dakota St. 15 seed
2014 UWM 15 seed < N. Dakota St. 12 seed
2013 Valpo 14 seed < S. Dakota St. 13 seed
2012 Detroit 15 seed < S. Dakota St. 14 seed

Since Butler left, (2012) the HL representative has been a higher seed than the SL representative 3 out of the last 4 years. 

Prior to 2012 the HL was always higher.  (Butler either as the AQ or at large).  I'm looking at post Butler and what has been the case the last 4 years.  HL < SL 

[oklahomamick]

2015 Valpo 13 seed > N. Dakota St. 15 seed 2014 UWM 15 seed < N. Dakota St. 12 seed 2013 Valpo 14 seed < S. Dakota St. 13 seed 2012 Detroit 15 seed < S. Dakota St. 14 seed Since Butler left, (2012) the HL representative has been a higher seed than the SL representative 3 out of the last 4 years. Prior to 2012 the HL was always higher.  (Butler either as the AQ or at large).  I'm looking at post Butler and what has been the case the last 4 years.  HL < SL

And if Valpo slips up in Detroit at the tourney and Oakland or anyone else at that matter gets the AQ (we don't get an at-large) the SL will once again get a better seed making it 4 out of 5 years.  Oakland or any other HL team will get a 14 or 15 seed. 

[a3uge]

2015 Valpo 13 seed > N. Dakota St. 15 seed
2014 UWM 15 seed < N. Dakota St. 12 seed
2013 Valpo 14 seed < S. Dakota St. 13 seed
2012 Detroit 15 seed < S. Dakota St. 14 seed

Since Butler left, (2012) the HL representative has been a higher seed than the SL representative 3 out of the last 4 years. 

Prior to 2012 the HL was always higher.  (Butler either as the AQ or at large).  I'm looking at post Butler and what has been the case the last 4 years.  HL < SL

The only reason why the Summit had better seed in those years is because their best team won the conference tournament while ours didn't. And also Valpo was moved up a seed in 2013 to play closer to home. This is a   way to judge conferences.

[a3uge]

2015 Valpo 13 seed > N. Dakota St. 15 seed 2014 UWM 15 seed < N. Dakota St. 12 seed 2013 Valpo 14 seed < S. Dakota St. 13 seed 2012 Detroit 15 seed < S. Dakota St. 14 seed Since Butler left, (2012) the HL representative has been a higher seed than the SL representative 3 out of the last 4 years. Prior to 2012 the HL was always higher.  (Butler either as the AQ or at large).  I'm looking at post Butler and what has been the case the last 4 years.  HL < SL

And if Valpo slips up in Detroit at the tourney and Oakland or anyone else at that matter gets the AQ (we don't get an at-large) the SL will once again get a better seed making it 4 out of 5 years.  Oakland or any other HL team will get a 14 or 15 seed.

And if South Dakota State loses, they'll end with a 15 or 16 seed.

[oklahomamick]

2015 Valpo 13 seed > N. Dakota St. 15 seed 2014 UWM 15 seed < N. Dakota St. 12 seed 2013 Valpo 14 seed < S. Dakota St. 13 seed 2012 Detroit 15 seed < S. Dakota St. 14 seed Since Butler left, (2012) the HL representative has been a higher seed than the SL representative 3 out of the last 4 years. Prior to 2012 the HL was always higher.  (Butler either as the AQ or at large).  I'm looking at post Butler and what has been the case the last 4 years.  HL < SL

And if Valpo slips up in Detroit at the tourney and Oakland or anyone else at that matter gets the AQ (we don't get an at-large) the SL will once again get a better seed making it 4 out of 5 years.  Oakland or any other HL team will get a 14 or 15 seed.

And if South Dakota State loses, they'll end with a 15 or 16 seed.

true on if S. Dakota losing who ever takes the AQ for the summit will be a 14 or 15.  I don't think I'm judging the conference on what seed they get.  I'm looking at rpi's to judge that.  But on top of it, thought, they have been getting better seeds as well.  Probably because the best SL team is winning it.  We better hope thats the case this year for the HL. 

[a3uge]

2015 Valpo 13 seed > N. Dakota St. 15 seed 2014 UWM 15 seed < N. Dakota St. 12 seed 2013 Valpo 14 seed < S. Dakota St. 13 seed 2012 Detroit 15 seed < S. Dakota St. 14 seed Since Butler left, (2012) the HL representative has been a higher seed than the SL representative 3 out of the last 4 years. Prior to 2012 the HL was always higher.  (Butler either as the AQ or at large).  I'm looking at post Butler and what has been the case the last 4 years.  HL < SL

And if Valpo slips up in Detroit at the tourney and Oakland or anyone else at that matter gets the AQ (we don't get an at-large) the SL will once again get a better seed making it 4 out of 5 years.  Oakland or any other HL team will get a 14 or 15 seed.

And if South Dakota State loses, they'll end with a 15 or 16 seed.

true on if S. Dakota losing who ever takes the AQ for the summit will be a 14 or 15.  I don't think I'm judging the conference on what seed they get.  I'm looking at rpi's to judge that.  But on top of it, thought, they have been getting better seeds as well.  Probably because the best SL team is winning it.  We better hope thats the case this year for the HL.

Our second team has the worst RPI in Horizon League since 2004 at this point. It's terrible. But most mid major conferences are in the same situation, including the Summit. Their second team in RPI is IPFW. The vast majority of mid majors have their top team win, and if not their first team, their second team wins.

While the Horizon is bad this year, its not completely broken. The Horizon kills the Summit in athletic spending and in recruiting every year. I'm not happy with the league right now, but if Cleveland State didn't have the transfer problem, and UIC hadn't cleaned house, the Horizon would be above the Summit.

[ValpoHoops]

Not sure which thread this belongs in, so here...

From Jay Bilas' "Bilas Index"


43. Valparaiso Crusaders
The Crusaders are 20-4 and have the No. 1-rated defense in the nation, based upon efficiency. Valpo limits second shots, defends the paint, but is rated 124th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Still, even if Valpo were to lose in the Horizon League tournament, Bryce Drew's team will get into the NCAA tournament. This year, all close calls will go to the mid-majors.

[talksalot]

Comparing the Conference Games played by some of the better Mid's

Valpo
The Average RPI of the teams we have already played:   228.7
The Average RPI of the teams we have left on schedule: 190.8  (OAK #124 is highest remaining RPI)
The Average RPI of all of the conference teams we have on schedule:   214

Steven F Austin
The average RPI of the teams they have already played:   286.5  (10-0 in conference)
The average RPI of the teams they have left on schedule: 244.5  (TA&M-CC #131 is highest remaining)
The average RPI of all of the conference teams on their schedule:  267.8

Ark-Little Rock
The average RPI of the teams they have already played:   220.8 (11-1 in conference, lost to #257)
The average RPI of the teams they have left on schedule: 200.0 (UT-Arlington #95 is highest remaining)
The average RPI of all of the conference teams on their schedule:   212.5

Monmouth
The average RPI of the teams the have already played:   217.2 (12-2 in conference, lost to #211  & #220)
The average RPI of the teams they have left on schedule:  234.4 (Iona #147 is highest remaining)
The average RPI of all of the conference teams on their schedule:   222.4

[ValpoHoops]

Latest update to the table. We've dropped behind 8 (EIGHT!) more schools based on the RPI.

At this point, the at-large talk is gone...have to win in Detroit. So, we will have chances to push our RPI back higher, but some of the records of teams in the HL this season are really hurting us.




Obviously, some of those numbers in "Projected Seed" wouldn't be accurate (Kentucky isn't going to be an 11...), but just left there to show where it would fall if we were strictly placing teams in from the "auto-bid only" category (of which we are now officially part of) and lumping everyone together.

[wh]

In the history of Valpo basketball I don't ever recall a more devastating loss than last Saturday night. Over night we went from a legitimate 7-10 seed (best in Valpo history, by far) to a possible 14. We'll still be a team that nobody wants to play, but the new narrative will be how Valpo is a team that disappeared from the horizon late in the season, but is still capable of pulling off the upset against (pick Top 15 team of your choice). "Cinderella" Valpo is back in business.

[agibson]

RPI 69 is depressing, so I took a quick peek at the win-out scenarios with RPI Forecast and RPI Wizard.

At the end of the regular season we could be in the 40 or 43 range. 

In the tournament, our best RPI options might be Green Bay or Oakland, but the difference between 3rd and 5th or even 6th best RPI isn't so large - hopefully the low RPI teams lose before the semi-finals. 

Seems that we could still hope for an RPI of 31, which wouldn't look too shabby on Selection Sunday.

[agibson]

Over night we went from a legitimate 7-10 seed (best in Valpo history, by far) to a possible 14.

Those are maybe exaggerations on both the high and the low sides.

But as for RPI 69 and a 14 seed, we only stay in that scenario if we lose another two or three games.  RPI 69 isn't indicative of our season so far - we're just coming out of the worst RPI stretch of the season: nine games in a row mostly against the RPI 200-300+ set, with losses to the only team in that stretch with an RPI better than 200.

Unless we really do collapse, our RPI is going up from here - and it probably would have bottomed out here even if we swept Wright State.

Our computer numbers (at least from KenPom) dipped after each Wright State loss, but have rebounded nicely - #26 overall, #1 defense.

[a3uge]

If you're projecting seeds from RPI, you might as well use projected RPI instead of current RPI. Our RPI dropped in 6 straight games, despite winning 5 of them. Since we're done with the RPI killers, we'd have to have 3 losses to end with a worse RPI than what we currently have.

[wh]

RPI 69 is depressing, so I took a quick peek at the win-out scenarios with RPI Forecast and RPI Wizard.

At the end of the regular season we could be in the 40 or 43 range. 

In the tournament, our best RPI options might be Green Bay or Oakland, but the difference between 3rd and 5th or even 6th best RPI isn't so large - hopefully the low RPI teams lose before the semi-finals. 

Seems that we could still hope for an RPI of 31, which wouldn't look too shabby on Selection Sunday.

Encouraging!

[valpocleveland]

Interesting to see how some of us return faster than others from the sky is falling mentality following the Wright State loss.

I am not one of those. The team I watched last night did not look like a team that is going to win out. Defense led as usual, holding any opponent to 43 points is down right impressive. Unfortunately the offense especially in the first half was awful. Continue to play like that and they will lose a game or two more.

I still think they will be a top 2 seed in the tournament and win the horizon tournament but I am watching the rpi less than I did before.