Potential NCAA Seeding

[agibson]

Could the nation's best mid-major team really miss the NCAA tourney?

http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/ncaa-tournament-valparaiso-bryce-drew-mid-major-selection-sunday-022216

I'd not noticed Kansas. 9-3 against the top 50. Consensus #2 in the country.

And there's a chance that their worst RPI loss will turn out to be worse than ours (OK State, currently 151).

As for their other comparison, Murray State. You'd have to compare the strength of the bubble, but, their numbers last year do bear a certain resemblance to ours
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/schedule/Murray-State
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/schedule/Valparaiso

[agibson]

As for their other comparison, Murray State. You'd have to compare the strength of the bubble, but, their numbers last year do bear a certain resemblance to ours
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/schedule/Murray-State
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/schedule/Valparaiso

Revising my perception slightly, the WN summary includes their NIT games.  Coming into Selection Sunday they were
0-1 against the top 50
3-2 against 51-100
9-1 against 101-200
13-1 against 200+

Still, there are some definite similarities...

But, man, 25 game win streak...One point loss in the OVC tournament final. Two game win streak in the NIT.

[VULB#62]

Yeah, MSU got screwed.

Ya know, if they weren't a FB school they'd be a great get for the HL. Their USNEWS rating puts them head and shoulders above some of our current members.

Brings us back to the Belmont/MSU package we chatted about 18 months ago. 

[bbtds]

If we win the tourney, what are the chances of a HL team getting the NIT invite?

Who cares?!!!!

Valpo would be almost a favorite to win a first round NCAA tournament game. That is all that matters to me at that point in this season.

[bbtds]

Valparaiso: Without Dillon Brooks' 26-point effort, Oregon would have lost to Valpo in late November. Oregon State, a bubble team, lost to Valpo two days later. Bryce Drew's team has proven it can handle opponents from the big leagues on the road. Alec Peters (16.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG), a 6-foot-9 forward, is a terrible matchup for most squads. He's the anchor of a team that is No. 1 in raw defensive efficiency (.87 PPP allowed this season). This team is dangerous.

Can't say we have heard this before about Valpo except maybe the '98 team and possibly one of the Lubos teams.

[oklahomamick]

The Mid-Major Disadvantage: The Power of the Power Conferences -

rushthecourt.net/2016/02/25/the-mid-major-disadvantage-the-power-of-the-power-conferences/#sthash.BG8bicg1.ESKhFrbu.dpuf

[agibson]

The Mid-Major Disadvantage: The Power of the Power Conferences -

rushthecourt.net/2016/02/25/the-mid-major-disadvantage-the-power-of-the-power-conferences/#sthash.BG8bicg1.ESKhFrbu.dpuf

Include Oregon State (KenPom 62, a bit past 60) in the analysis and we look more like Arkansas Little Rock. But, it's maybe a bit sad the comparisons we're drawing. (On the other hand, a bit happy that we're talking about being one of the best few mid-majors in the country, better than Gonzaga, etc.)

[talksalot]

Warren Nolan bracket at 9:40pm Saturday night

Denver, CO  (Philadelphia Regional)

5. Baylor (20-8)   
12. Valparaiso (23-5)  Horizon 
4. Iowa (20-7)   
13. Hofstra (21-8)  Colonial Athletic

Others on the 12-line:

Ark-Little Rock (Spokane)  vs. California
St Mary's (St Louis) vs. Texas
San Diego State (Spokane) vs Notre Dame

=============Going into Games Friday=========
Joe Lunardeee

Oklahoma City
5  INDIANA
12  VALPARAISO
4  KENTUCKY
13  STONY BROOK

Others on the 12 line:
Tulsa / Butler in a Dayton, Play-in vs. Texas A&M in Denver
San Diego State (Spokane) vs Purdue
Ark Little Rock *Denver) vs. Utah

======== Going into Games Friday============
Jerry Palm CBS Sports Bracketology
DES MOINES

5  Texas A&M-
12   Valparaiso-On the Bubble
4  Iowa-
13   Hawai'i

Other 12s:
Ark Little Rock vs. Purdue in Oklahoma City
St. Mary's Vs. Indiana @ Denver
San Diego State Vs. Iowa State @ Spokane

[justducky]

It is interesting to note that Baylor, Indiana and Purdue are all grouped as possible 5 seeds. Of those Baylor would be my 3'rd choice by a wide distance. Notre Dame could also be a 5 or 6 and you all know how I love those cowards guys.

Line em all up and if at-large lightning were to somehow strike, a play-in with Butler could also be delightful.

[SanityLost17]

Looking at RPIForecast today.  (not sure if it is completely up to date or not)
Oregon - 3
Oregon St.  - 32
IPFW - 69
Belmont - 78
Iona - 104
Rhode Island  - 105
Oakland - 114

Iona, Rhode Island, and Oakland COULD sneak into the top 100 RPI, and with a run in the Pac12 tournament Oregon St. COULD sneak into the top 25 RPI.  If that happens, and Oakland would have to beat us in the HL final for them to get into the top 100, we would be 7-3 against the top 100.

1-1 vs. top top 25 RPI (both on the road)
7-3 vs Top 100 RPI  (5 road games, 1 "neutral" court, 4 home games)

Bad loses = Ball State and Wright St. twice.  Both teams would need to finish in the top 150 in RPI.  During the mock draft I saw several tweets saying that everyone agreed a loss to a 150+ team was a bad loss. 

It is highly unlikely we could get an at-large, but it is not impossible.  Everything would have to go right over the next few weeks, with bubble teams losing and not advancing very far in their conference tournaments, and our OOC opponents all playing well to close out the season. 

[agibson]

Bad loses = Ball State and Wright St. twice.  Both teams would need to finish in the top 150 in RPI.

This part, at least, isn't so far fetched. Ball State is at 150 now, and forecast to move higher before their tournament.

Wright State is at 152, so two wins and a loss might be enough... but they'll be playing some bad-RPI competition...

[justducky]

We are now at WN 43 RPI and #8 in their NPI which takes missing players into account. Winning with 2 starting rolled ankles is a great confidence and resume builder (assuming full recovery). Our ESPN BPI still sits at 37 (effectively 35) but it should reset higher as well. Maybe we could still get a 10? Or a #1 seed NIT?     

[talksalot]

Jerry Palm CBS Sports Bracketology - updated at 3:00pm today - before any of the finals were in...

Providence

5  Iowa State
12   Valparaiso-On the Bubble
4  Maryland
13   Hofstra

Other 12s:
Ark Little Rock vs. Indiana in Oklahoma City
St. Mary's Vs. Kentucky @ Spokane
Chattanooga vs Texas A&M @ Spokane

[valpotx]

We have a great record against Steve Prohm...

[justducky]

We have a great record against Steve Prohm...

I was wondering if we could get them on next years regular season schedule because Prohm should still be itching for revenge.

[talksalot]

Warren Nolan bracket after the Sunday games:

Denver, CO
5.   Kentucky (21-8)      
12.   Valparaiso (24-5)    Horizon   
4.   Iowa (20-8)      
13.   Stony Brook (21-6)    America East

Other 12s:
St Marys vs. Baylor @ Providence
San Diego State vs. Purdue @ St. Louis
Ark Little Rock vs. California @ Spokane
=============================
Jerry Palm Updated Sunday Night ... yuuch
DES MOINES

5  Iowa-1
12  Valparaiso-On the Bubble
4  Duke-1
13   Hofstra-

St Marys vs. Kentucky @ Denver
Ark-Little Rock vs Indiana @ Oklahoma City
Chattanooga vs Texas A&M @ Spokane

[a3uge]

Give me Iowa!

[talksalot]

but NOT in DesMoines!

[ValpoHoops]

Big jump this week, both in our RPI numbers and in the positioning on this table. Road wins really help...and the data from the NCAA is dated yesterday (no timestamp). If it was before our game, which I have to believe it was, we will get another nice boost with a road win (1.4 wins to the formula) over a 19-12 team.

[oklahomamick]

http://www.todaysu.com/around-the-u/mid-major-large-resume-evaluation/

They list Valpo and Monmouth as the only candidates getting in. (out of Little-Rock, San Diego St. Chattanooga, Stony Brook and UNC Wilmington. 

VALPARAISO

Conference: Horizon
Record: 23-5
RPI/BPI/KenPom: 65/37/26

If you hate RPI, take a gander at Valparaiso. The Horizon League-leading Crusaders don't have the strongest RPI of the teams examined here, but their KenPom ranking dictates inclusion in the Field of 68 barring a catastrophic collapse in the coming weeks.

The Crusaders scored a road win over Oregon State in December, which stands as one of the most impressive victories among the teams examined here. Valpo also dominated Oakland away from home and bested them 86-84 at Athletics-Recreation Center. Included in the Crusaders' five losses is a six-point decision against Pac-12 leading Oregon.

The only real knock against Valpo as an at-large team is losing twice to Wright State. The Raiders are hanging around in the Horizon League, but check in at a luke-warm 159 in RPI. They're one spot behind Ball State, which upset Valpo in non-conference play.

Nevertheless, if the committee is looking to reward mid-major conference regular-season champions that played challenging non-conference schedules, and have a proven ability to hang with Tournament competition, Valparaiso is one of the best options.

Death to the RPI; Crusaders get the nod.

Verdict: IN

[valpotx]

I just want to see someone new this year.  No more Maryland, Michigan State, Kentucky, or Gonzaga (this wouldn't be possible this year in first round).

[Kyle321n]

I just want to see someone new this year.  No more Maryland, Michigan State, Kentucky, or Gonzaga (this wouldn't be possible this year in first round).

I'd love to get Gonzaga this year, that means we're a 6-7 seed, they're a 10-11 seed.

[valpocleveland]

http://www.todaysu.com/around-the-u/mid-major-large-resume-evaluation/

They list Valpo and Monmouth as the only candidates getting in. (out of Little-Rock, San Diego St. Chattanooga, Stony Brook and UNC Wilmington. 

VALPARAISO

Conference: Horizon
Record: 23-5
RPI/BPI/KenPom: 65/37/26

If you hate RPI, take a gander at Valparaiso. The Horizon League-leading Crusaders don't have the strongest RPI of the teams examined here, but their KenPom ranking dictates inclusion in the Field of 68 barring a catastrophic collapse in the coming weeks.

The Crusaders scored a road win over Oregon State in December, which stands as one of the most impressive victories among the teams examined here. Valpo also dominated Oakland away from home and bested them 86-84 at Athletics-Recreation Center. Included in the Crusaders' five losses is a six-point decision against Pac-12 leading Oregon.

The only real knock against Valpo as an at-large team is losing twice to Wright State. The Raiders are hanging around in the Horizon League, but check in at a luke-warm 159 in RPI. They're one spot behind Ball State, which upset Valpo in non-conference play.

Nevertheless, if the committee is looking to reward mid-major conference regular-season champions that played challenging non-conference schedules, and have a proven ability to hang with Tournament competition, Valparaiso is one of the best options.

Death to the RPI; Crusaders get the nod.

Verdict: IN

RPI is 43 now!

[justducky]

Conference: Horizon
Record: 23-5
RPI/BPI/KenPom: 65/37/26

42/37/33 are our most recent numbers. Our Sag has also moved to #42. By a mile this is our best combination of numbers ever.

A lot can happen between now and selection Sunday and I am very optimistic.

[Kyle321n]

So my Aleve is kicking in... 

Here's the RPI Forecast based on what happens in the HL Tourney.

Game 1	Game 2	RPI	SOS
GB	OAK	30	148
UWM	OAK	30	148
GB	UDM	34	155
GB	WSU	34	155
UWM	UDM	34	155
UWM	WSU	34	155
CSU	OAK	37	168
NKU	OAK	37	168
GB	YSU	38	170
UWM	YSU	38	170
CSU	WSU	41	175
CSU	UDM	41	176
NKU	WSU	41	176
NKU	UDM	41	177
GB	UIC	43	178
UWM	UIC	43	179
CSU	YSU	45	187
NKU	YSU	45	188
NKU	UIC	51	202
CSU	UIC	51	203

Obviously Oakland is the best option for us, and it looks like it doesn't matter which Wisconsin team we play, it will be the same result. Now if Oakland is to lose, Detroit and Wright State seem pretty equitable. You can see what the worst options for us are, finishing with CSU/NKU and UIC absolutely killing our RPI.