Potential NCAA Seeding

[agibson]

You can see what the worst options for us are, finishing with CSU/NKU and UIC absolutely killing our RPI.

UIC might sting a little. But, if the fates handed us NKU+YSU in the tournament I could probably tolerate the 45 RPI, stomach the poor-to-watch blowouts, and laugh my way all the way to the NCAA tournament.

A piece of me roots for the Wright State rematch, and would enjoy seeing us play Felder again, and in front of a decent crowd. And a piece of me is scared by both Felder and Wright State, and perhaps also by Green Bay (I worry about playing teams that can defend and/or rebound...).

[agibson]

Here's the RPI Forecast based on what happens in the HL Tourney.

   Game 1         Game 2         RPI         SOS   
   GB         OAK         30         148   

And, a notion of caution about RPI Forecast numbers until they include the _real_ tournaments for everybody (I assume they don't yet). Presumably a lot of top teams will see RPI improvements as they play other high RPI teams in advanced rounds of tournaments. It seems likely to me that winning these two won't _really_ mean RPI 30.

[wh]

So my Aleve is kicking in... 

Here's the RPI Forecast based on what happens in the HL Tourney.

Game 1	Game 2	RPI	SOS
GB	OAK	30	148
UWM	OAK	30	148
GB	UDM	34	155
GB	WSU	34	155
UWM	UDM	34	155
UWM	WSU	34	155
CSU	OAK	37	168
NKU	OAK	37	168
GB	YSU	38	170
UWM	YSU	38	170
CSU	WSU	41	175
CSU	UDM	41	176
NKU	WSU	41	176
NKU	UDM	41	177
GB	UIC	43	178
UWM	UIC	43	179
CSU	YSU	45	187
NKU	YSU	45	188
NKU	UIC	51	202
CSU	UIC	51	203

Obviously Oakland is the best option for us, and it looks like it doesn't matter which Wisconsin team we play, it will be the same result. Now if Oakland is to lose, Detroit and Wright State seem pretty equitable. You can see what the worst options for us are, finishing with CSU/NKU and UIC absolutely killing our RPI.

Good information. Thx.

[Kyle321n]

Here's the RPI Forecast based on what happens in the HL Tourney.

   Game 1         Game 2         RPI         SOS   
   GB         OAK         30         148   

And, a notion of caution about RPI Forecast numbers until they include the _real_ tournaments for everybody (I assume they don't yet). Presumably a lot of top teams will see RPI improvements as they play other high RPI teams in advanced rounds of tournaments. It seems likely to me that winning these two won't _really_ mean RPI 30.

Yeah, but it gives you an idea of what would help and hurt us the most. I should have figured the UWM/GB would be similar for the help and I knew who in the bottom half helped us the best.

[justducky]

      RPI  NPI KenPom SAG   BPI    OOC/SOS

USC    43 70 50 48 44          80

Pitt    39 51  40 31 40         186

Wichita St 37  10  8 19 22     6

U Conn 52  42  28 32 26   87

Providence 44  61  57 54 54 215

Oregon St 32  93  60 59 61    51 

Syracuse 54  74  42 40 41 112

Cincinnati 50  46 30 30 25 155

Florida 45  92 44 38 36      3

Vanderbilt 49  66 23 18 24   32

Michigan 56  67 47 37 51 166

Tulsa 40  62 43 55 46   78

VCU 46  38 38 41 31  64

Butler 55  60 39 29 38 220

ST Mary's 47  14 35 33 32 209

Valpo 42     8 33 42 37   42

Monmouth 53  19 70 79 88   92

Temple 59  89 91 91 76   71

St Bonaventure 35  54 81 78 79 153

Gonzaga 65  22 32 28 27   49

Alabama 57  99 82 75 83   26

Colorado 28 65 62 51 48 129

Seton Hall 31 26 31 36 34 237

South Carolina 38 40 53 50 43 268

My apology for not being able to place this in a better organized fashion. Believe me that it wasn't because of a lack of effort.

This is a list of 8 to 12 seed competition for selection Sunday. Keeping in mind that most of these teams played 2 (many only 1) true OOC road games I included their OOC/ SOS's as an additional reference number. By any and all these measures we look to belong right in the thick of any 8 to 12 and bubble conversations.I expect the inevitable "who did they beat" which must be answered with "who would play us"?

Look it over and make your own decisions. I will try to update the numbers as things evolve.

[usc4valpo]

Go USC! What a turnaround year for the Men of Troy. Fight on!

[justducky]

RPI  NPI KenPom SAG   BPI    OOC/SOS

USC    43 70 50 48 44          80

Go USC! What a turnaround year for the Men of Troy. Fight on!

My placement of USC at the top of the list was a totally random event having nothing to do with their overall ranking.  Sorry but they may end up in the first 4 out hopefully not alongside Valpo. 

[justducky]

Having realized how difficult my 24 team seeding competitor list is to read, I have tallied up some easier to understand comparisons.

For the RPI list we rank 8'th.
For the NPI list we rank 1'st.
For the Ken Pomeroy list we rank 7'th.
For the Sagarin list we rank 14'th.
For the ESPN BPI list we rank 10'th.
And we have the 5'th best OOC/SOS.
You need to mull those over for when they try to hand us a 12 seed as if it were a great gift from the Gods!

[bbtds]

We have a great record against Steve Prohm...

When I saw that Prohm's Iowa State lost to Baylor twice this year I kind of felt sorry for the former Murray State coach. He had to be thinking "I don't want to face the Drew brothers anymore." He has lost 5 straight games coaching against either Bryce or Scott.

[usc4valpo]

In reality,  the probability that USC will be selected as an at large bid is higher than it is for Valpo. The Horizon conference overall is weak, and Valpo needs to get out of it soon.

[ValpoHoops]

ESPN Bubble Watch:

Valparaiso [26-5 (16-2), RPI: 42, SOS: 186] Let's throw the Crusaders back on here, if only because there's a chance that their road win at Oregon State -- which, hey, is a top-30 RPI victory! -- will start to look even better before Selection Sunday. Meanwhile, Bryce Drew's team did finish the regular season with a 16-2 record against the Horizon League, the same tally Wichita State racked up in the Missouri Valley Conference. No one here is arguing that Valpo is actually better than the Shockers, and the Horizon is at least a notch behind the Valley in terms of overall league strength. But the same principle applies: This is a really good team that was banged up in nonconference play and -- in the Watch's humble opinion -- probably deserves to be in the tournament at the end of the day. We'll see.

[agibson]

Good! We certainly deserve to be, and will be, part of the conversation.

On Monmouth they say

Monmouth [25-6 (17-3), RPI: 58, SOS: 215] Monmouth couldn't quite make it through the end of the Bubble Watch purview without adding one last conference loss. Feb. 19's home defeat to Iona didn't knock the Hawks totally out of the picture, if only because the Gaels stand alongside Siena as the only MAAC teams with non-resume-destroying RPIs. Besides, the Hawks still have that win over Notre Dame, plus fading-but-still-in-the-field USC, and their 9-3 mark against the top 150, 5-2 performance against the top 100 and 2-2 split versus the top 50 all look pretty impressive compared to plenty of teams on the bubble.

They don't mention their three losses to the 200+ RPI set. Or that their two top-50 wins (and one of the losses) were at neutral sites. Notre Dame, UCLA, and USC have more name recognition, perhaps. But, I'm not convinced their wins are better than ours, and their losses are worse.

We'd dipped a bit in bracketmatrix, but have now recovered some. Behind only St. Mary's in the "AQ's dreaming of an at-large" (and ahead of Monmouth, Little Rock), but 4-5 spots out of the at-large places.

[valpo95]

Nice to see the Crusaders at least on the Bubble Watch. Of course, win the HL tourney and the bubble becomes less of an issue.

Let me propose a reasonable heuristic for the selection committee: No team gets invited to the tournament unless it has a winning (above .500) conference record for the regular season. All the teams in traditional basketball power conferences still have a chance to win their conference tournament and make it in that way.

What would that mean in practice? Well, if the season ended today, Texas Tech, USC, Oregon St., Providence, Butler, Florida and Alabama would not get into the tournament - some of them might still win out and finish above 8-8 in conference, or win their conference tournament and get in.

Texas Tech is a great example - assuming they did not win the Big12 tournament: They are a good team, but are currently 7th in a 10-team conference. As good as the Big12 is, does the committee really need to take seven teams from that conference? Would all of the 8-8 PAC12 teams get in?   

Instead, teams that are in second place from non-power conferences at least should get a second look. Wouldn't the tournament be better with at least two of (St. Marys, Gonzaga, BYU) who are all tied for first place in the WCC? How about Evansville (in second place behind Wichita St.)? How about both IPFW and SDSU from the Summit (currently tied for first)? How about Oakland or Wright State? How about Iona? How about Ball State or Ohio?

[agibson]

Butler 55  60 39 29 38 220

ST Mary's 47  14 35 33 32 209

Valpo 42     8 33 42 37   42

Monmouth 53  19 70 79 88   92

I don't envy the committee comparing, say, a Valpo or a Monmout to a Butler. The schedules are just so different.

Butler 3-7 against the top 50. Best road wins @Cincinnati (RPI 50) and @Seton Hall (RPI 31). Best home wins...Creighton (RPI 100)? Georgetown (RPI 105)? Purdue (RPI 18) at a "neutral" site in Indy.

How would we have done with their schedule? How would they have done with ours? Seems pretty hard to say... Do you turn to computer numbers? Which ones? KenPom and Sagarin seem to disagree...

[covufan]

Here are the lists I use for looking at potential seedings:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm (through games of 2/28)

Both are averages of the many seeding/ranking systems out there.  Bracketmatrix is an average of all the tournament seeding websites/blogs.  Massey does a weekly compilation of the college basketball ranking/rating systems.  From the Massey site, Valpo should be an 11 seed.  Bracketmatrix has us as the highest 12 seed, just ahead of the final at-large berth.  Massey has Valpo ahead of many teams that are projected to be 8 or 9 seeds.   However, a loss in the HL tournament would put Valpo on the outside looking in.

Looking at the Massey site, I don't get the love for Temple, nor do I understand the feeling that the West Coast conference is a one bid conference this year.  Both St Mary's and Gonzaga deserve to be in before Temple, Florida and Michigan.

[justducky]

Quote from: justducky on February 29, 2016, 07:42:07 PM
Butler 55  60 39 29 38 220

ST Mary's 47  14 35 33 32 209

Valpo 42     8 33 42 37   42

Monmouth 53  19 70 79 88   92

I don't envy the committee comparing, say, a Valpo or a Monmout to a Butler. The schedules are just so different.

This is an interesting list because we would like to see them all make the tournament. Depending on events any could be placed as 10 seeds or better. On the other hand this could be a complete list of your NIT #1 seeds.

I do want to draw special attention to the final number in each series which is OOC/SOS. Both Butler and St Mary's chose to play it safe (game the system) with weak non conference schedules featuring 1 true road game apiece. Butlers OOC/SOS was #220 and St Mary's was #209. Courageous!

But Wait!!!   Others on my competitor list are even worse! How about Providence at #215 with 2 true road game (one being that long drive to Rhode Island), Seton Hall with 2 true road games  and a #237 rank and South Carolina at #268 and 1 true road game. Last but not least let me mention Pitt who managed to play zero true OOC road games against a competitive field ranked at #186.

How do they get away with this crap? Does anybody remember Cincinnati's numbers from a few year back when they were maybe the 1'st team out because of their joke non-conference schedule?

[agibson]

I hate to be pessimistic, but... if we lose in the final to Oakland it seems likely Oakland will cross RPI 100. (Wright State or even Green Bay could also cross 100 in win-out scenarios). (Ball State could too, I guess, in win-out scenarios; but I'll ignore these three.)

And Iona's predicted to cross to the good side of 100, or at least plausibly likely to do it. Rhode Island's right on the fence, let's put them better than 100.

Heck, why not, how about some Summit love? IPFW's even got a 16% chance of winning out to an RPI of 39!  (If the favorites, South Dakota State, win, 44% chance, their RPI is a mind-boggling expected 19; and bracketmatrix has them as the last of the 13 seeds.)

So, if we fall in the finals, maybe:

1-1 against RPI 1-50  (or even 2-1)
6-2 against RPI 51-100
8-3 against RPI 101-200
10-0 against RPI 201+

RPI 42 or so.

Interesting...

Or, in the happier (and more likely, knock on wood) event that we win out, could be
1-1 against RPI 1-50   (or even 2-1)
4-1 against RPI 51-100
11-3 against RPI 101-200
10-0 against RPI 201+

RPI 27 or 28.

Or, of course, it could look more like our current
1-1 against RPI 1-50   
2-1 against RPI 51-100.

Or I guess Belmont could even drop out, making it 1-1 top 50, 1-0 51-100.

[agibson]

(If the favorites, South Dakota State, win, 44% chance, their RPI is a mind-boggling expected 19; and bracketmatrix has them as the last of the 13 seeds.)

You have to imagine that South Dakota State and Summit fans are pretty mad. I don't hear much talk about them for an at-large...

[a3uge]

(If the favorites, South Dakota State, win, 44% chance, their RPI is a mind-boggling expected 19; and bracketmatrix has them as the last of the 13 seeds.)

You have to imagine that South Dakota State and Summit fans are pretty mad. I don't hear much talk about them for an at-large...

The selection committee will see through the horrible SOS the Summit had to boost each teams' RPIs. You can't live on RPI and "good losses" alone. They have 0 projected top 100 wins.

[agibson]

The selection committee will see through the horrible SOS the Summit had to boost each teams' RPIs. You can't live on RPI and "good losses" alone. They have 0 projected top 100 wins.

Hm? None in true road games. But, IPFW, and Santa Barbara, MTSU if those two hold up. Illinois State could come into the top 100, or maybe one of the other Summit Teams.

RPI Forecast projects them to 3-3 against the top 100.

Not that they're getting an at-large bid. But, they could have a pretty shiny RPI and get left out. (Maybe not a chance at the record; to my surprise a 21 and a pair of 30's have missed. But they could crack the top 10.)

[a3uge]

The selection committee will see through the horrible SOS the Summit had to boost each teams' RPIs. You can't live on RPI and "good losses" alone. They have 0 projected top 100 wins.

Hm? None in true road games. But, IPFW, and Santa Barbara, MTSU if those two hold up. Illinois State could come into the top 100, or maybe one of the other Summit Teams.

RPI Forecast projects them to 3-3 against the top 100.

Not that they're getting an at-large bid. But, they could have a pretty shiny RPI and get left out. (Maybe not a chance at the record; to my surprise a 21 and a pair of 30's have missed. But they could crack the top 10.)

I meant OOC games - on RPI forecast, every win projects to a +100 RPI win. Even so, having your best OOC win around a 95 RPI is not 12-seed or near at-large worthy. They also lost to a WAC school.

[justducky]

Here are the lists I use for looking at potential seedings:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

I believe this to be of only limited value. 102 opinions which all carry different metrics, biases, motivations and expertise does little to guarantee the best answers. Many of those contributors could be less qualified and objective than many of us.

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm (through games of 2/28)

Massey does a weekly compilation of the college basketball ranking/rating systems.  From the Massey site, Valpo should be an 11 seed.

Massey is much more valuable and puts us in the thick of the conversation. BUT..............

I have yet to be convinced that home vs road adjustment values are adequately represented by any of the rating organizations or base measures. There is a reason (other than revenue) why the Massey teams in the 25-50 range average less than 1.9 OOC true road games per year while Valpo and Monmouth had to play 7.

Maybe some one needs to create a "game the system" index which measures true OOC road games played combined with OOC/SOS's. Maybe this would draw attention to some of the BIGS who routinely challenge varied "Polish Cavalries" to attack them on their home floors.

[justducky]

What are NCAA regulations concerning late scheduled games to fill in opening?

I have looked at the St Mary's schedule  on Warren Nolan many times. There was  no March 1 game listed vs Grand Canyon. Now I see that St Mary's brought them in Tuesday
and beat them thus helping their RPI (Grand Canyon was in the 80's?) and OOC/SOS which dropped from 209 to 151.

If this is a legal last minute move it should be awarded a special category prize for gamesmanship. Need some last minute at large help? Buy another carefully selected home opponent.

[ValpoHoops]

They've done it before. Several years ago, Patty Mills was hurt and didn't play in the WCC Tournament, and they lost. They scheduled another game (Eastern Washington, I think) during the final weekend to try and show the committee that Mills was healthy.

[justducky]

They've done it before. Several years ago, Patty Mills was hurt and didn't play in the WCC Tournament, and they lost. They scheduled another game (Eastern Washington, I think) during the final weekend to try and show the committee that Mills was healthy.

If this is allowed to continue I could see a bidding war developing for any non bubble 60-100 RPI teams who have room remaining on their schedules.

Do you have any idea if there is some kind of deadline? When might this deal have been finalized? Had St Mary's paid them some kind of non-refundable fee to maintain this availability?