ESPN Bubble Watch

[vu84v2]

Baylor ran a potentially even more impressive full court last second play against Kansas. Threw it to the corner, Gathers was the only guy who could catch it (and did), then turned and threw in the three pointer. Of course there was a large degree of luck considering Gathers had never attempted a three in his career. To add to it, Gathers ran off the court after the shot and right over a very large gentleman on the sidelines.

As far as an at-large, the loss that would keep Valpo from winning the conference title would be the same 'bad enough' loss to keep them out of the tournament as an at large. One too many losses this season.

[vu72]

Doug Gottlieb said Valpo should be in as at-large.  Also said he saw the Pacer last night during the Baylor game. 

Was watching the game and saw they play.  Immediately said to the guy next to me "Pacer"!  The pass was received closer to the top of the key and then to a guy in the corner.  Still, a thing of beauty...

[agibson]

[tweet]705063726051926016[/tweet]

Nice!

[historyman]

Doug Gottlieb said Valpo should be in as at-large.  Also said he saw the Pacer last night during the Baylor game. 

Was watching the game and saw they play.  Immediately said to the guy next to me "Pacer"!  The pass was received closer to the top of the key and then to a guy in the corner.  Still, a thing of beauty...

I think it showed how difficult it is to throw that inbounds pass to the other end of the court and hit the receiver in a good position. I still admire Jaime Sykes for doing a great job on that inbounds pass in '98. 

[agibson]

No surprise, but we were still in the ESPN bubble watch Friday morning update, with basically the same blurb. Banged up in non-conf a bit like Wichita State, same conf record, not that they're saying we're Wichita State (who will test bubble watch's theory that they're a lock).

[oklahomamick]

Valparaiso is also among this year's one-hit wonders. Unlike Wichita State and San Diego State, the Crusaders can't usually count on its league to help them out. Valpo made a trip to the Pacific Northwest this year to play the Oregon schools and put a scare into the Ducks before winning at Oregon State.

The fact that the league isn't good otherwise puts a lot of pressure on the Crusaders because every loss is damaging. They won the league, but lost twice to Wright State. That, along with losses to Ball State and Belmont outside the league means an at-large bid is unlikely.

Again, the HL is only hurting us. 

[VULB#62]

Still a glimmer......

Latest USAToday Bracket.  GB is a 15 facing Michigan State in St. Louis.  Among others, Gonzaga beat St. Mary's for the WCC title and is a 10.  Iona a 13. Butler a 9. Monmouth is an at-large playing in against Tulsa for an 11.

"Others considered for at-large bids (in order): Valparaiso, Hofstra, Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, Washington, Houston, George Washington"

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2016/03/09/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-march-madness-gonzaga-saint-marys-bubble/81521756/

[covufan]

With Gonzaga winning the WCC, that takes another at-large away, as some were predicting Gonzaga to not be an at-large this year. 

We need Michigan, Houston, South Carolina, and a few others to lose their first conference tournament games. 

[VULB#62]

That USAToday article said that St. Mary's does not have much of a chance for an at-large due to their very weak OCSOS.

[RedHawk]

Pitt beating Syracuse today is helpful. 

[wh]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we have a 1 in 100 chance of receiving an at-large. We spent our 1st life losing at Ball State, our 2nd losing to what ultimately became a very beatable Belmont team, our 3rd at home to WSU, and our 4th and final life losing to GB in Detroit. And, lest we forget, we also play in a crap conference where RPi killers abound. When's the last time a 20th ranked conference got 2 bids?  Ever?

[Kyle321n]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we have a 1 in 100 chance of receiving an at-large. We spent our 1st life losing at Ball State, our 2nd losing to what ultimately became a very beatable Belmont team, our 3rd at home to WSU, and our 4th and final life losing to GB in Detroit. And, lest we forget, we also play in a crap conference where RPi killers abound. When's the last time a 20th ranked conference got 2 bids?  Ever?

Not quite 20th, but in 2008 the 15th ranked WCC got 3 teams in the tourney, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's and San Diego.

I think what helps us out some, at least based on eye test, is the fact that Green Bay won the tourney, not Wright State. If it was Wright State we would have lost our only two games against the eventual champion.

[VULB#62]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we have a 1 in 100 chance of receiving an at-large. We spent our 1st life losing at Ball State, our 2nd losing to what ultimately became a very beatable Belmont team, our 3rd at home to WSU, and our 4th and final life losing to GB in Detroit. And, lest we forget, we also play in a crap conference where RPi killers abound. When's the last time a 20th ranked conference got 2 bids?  Ever?

Hope Hope Hope }  Sometimes the raw numbers overwhelm prejudice  { Hope Hope Hope

[valpopal]

we also play in a crap conference where RPi killers abound. When's the last time a 20th ranked conference got 2 bids?  Ever?

I think wh has indicated the real problem. Looking back at past years, the Horizon League ranked fairly well. According to Sagarin, the HL was a top-ten conference in the 2010-2011 season. In later years, the HL still held a respectable 12th place, but last year and this year the ranking has fallen to 18th, two spots below the Summit League, from which we were supposed to be moving up with a switch to the HL.


Instead of spending time, energy, and money screwing with a popular and successful tournament format, the resources would have been better employed addressing the deteriorating stature of the league by directing certain teams to schedule more wisely and insisting upon accountability, especially with four teams ranked between 258 and 331 and making up 8 of Valpo's required schedule games (more than 25% of the year's entire schedule). Placing an 18th-ranked conference tournament in an 18,000 seat arena, with maybe 2,000 actually attending the championship game (not counting rented high school bands) by reasonable reports and shared videos on twitter, only brought more attention to the sad state of the conference.

[covufan]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we have a 1 in 100 chance of receiving an at-large. We spent our 1st life losing at Ball State, our 2nd losing to what ultimately became a very beatable Belmont team, our 3rd at home to WSU, and our 4th and final life losing to GB in Detroit. And, lest we forget, we also play in a crap conference where RPi killers abound. When's the last time a 20th ranked conference got 2 bids?  Ever?

Only when a true top 25 team loses the automatic bid. Not sure it ever really happened in, but this is only scenario.


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[HailVU2014]

Now that the other Crusaders (Holy Cross) will be in a play in game, can the committee really leave the other Crusaders (Valpo) out of the NCAAs? It could be Crusader night in Dayton!

[oklahomamick]

Reasons to take Valpo over Monmouth
1.   Common opponent.  We beat Iona by 25 (again) and Monmouth lost to them twice.
2.   Valpo RPI = 52  Monmouth RPI = 54
3.   Kenpom Valpo = 38 Monmouth 65
4.   Non-Conference SOS Valpo 52 and Monmouth 93

Reasons to take Valpo over Wichita St.
1.   Wichita St. 4-7 against top 100 Valpo 4-2
2.   Wichita St. 1-3 against top 50 Valpo 1-1
3.   Wichita 10-7 on road Valpo 12-5.

Is it because we have brown and gold as our school colors?

[usc4valpo]

Well, to make chances worse for the Saders, USC destroyed UCLA by 24 tonight, very much assuring them of an NCAA bid.

[covufan]

Well, to make chances worse for the Saders, USC destroyed UCLA by 24 tonight, very much assuring them of an NCAA bid.

Was hoping UCLA would wake up from their funk.   Ouch


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[usc4valpo]

Alford may be an Indiana HS legend and all that, but as a major college coach he sucks. IU was fortunate not to hire him.

[wh]

Reasons to take Valpo over Monmouth
1.   Common opponent.  We beat Iona by 25 (again) and Monmouth lost to them twice.
2.   Valpo RPI = 52  Monmouth RPI = 54
3.   Kenpom Valpo = 38 Monmouth 65
4.   Non-Conference SOS Valpo 52 and Monmouth 93

Reasons to take Valpo over Wichita St.
1.   Wichita St. 4-7 against top 100 Valpo 4-2
2.   Wichita St. 1-3 against top 50 Valpo 1-1
3.   Wichita 10-7 on road Valpo 12-5.

Is it because we have brown and gold as our school colors?

Can't WSU can make a similar case about how injuries affected their W/L record?

[SanityLost17]

Odds are low, really really low.
 
1. Cincinnati has to win their conference tournament beating Uconn and Temple. 
2. Oregon State wins 2 games and then loses the third by 40 points.  (not sure on this one, but beating USC hurts them and Monmouth and we own the "tie-breaker" with Oregon State if push comes to shove.   
3. Michigan winning no more than 1 game in Big Ten tournament.
4. Florida winning no more than 1 game in SEC tourney.
5. Pitt gets destroyed in next game (after beating Syracuse 3 times) 
6. George Washington winning no more than 1 game in A10 tourney.
7. Rhode Island wins 3 games in A10 tourney. (Umass, Bonnies, VCU)   
8. Somehow Belmont stays in the top 100 in the RPI after all tournaments are said and done.
9. Houston has to beat Tulsa (preferably Memphis)
10. No crazy teams like Houston or Georgia or LSU winning their conference tournament.   
 

[SanityLost17]

11.  Notre Dame loses right away, further hurting one of Monmouth's big wins. 

[valpocleveland]

These will help(teams involving last 4 byes,last 4 in,first four out,etc.):

3/10 Games
Need Florida to lose to Arkansas
Need Michigan to lost to Northwestern
Need GW to lose to St. Louis

3/11 Games
Need UConn to lose to Cincy
Need Tulsa to lose to Memphis

I think that if all the stars align it will come down to St. Mary's/Monmouth/Wichita/Valpo for one of the last spots

[oklahomamick]

Reasons to take Valpo over Monmouth 1.   Common opponent.  We beat Iona by 25 (again) and Monmouth lost to them twice. 2.   Valpo RPI = 52  Monmouth RPI = 54 3.   Kenpom Valpo = 38 Monmouth 65 4.   Non-Conference SOS Valpo 52 and Monmouth 93 Reasons to take Valpo over Wichita St. 1.   Wichita St. 4-7 against top 100 Valpo 4-2 2.   Wichita St. 1-3 against top 50 Valpo 1-1 3.   Wichita 10-7 on road Valpo 12-5. Is it because we have brown and gold as our school colors?

Can't WSU can make a similar case about how injuries affected their W/L record?

But my reasons didn't say anything about injuries.  Just records.