ESPN Bubble Watch

[wh]

Reasons to take Valpo over Monmouth 1.   Common opponent.  We beat Iona by 25 (again) and Monmouth lost to them twice. 2.   Valpo RPI = 52  Monmouth RPI = 54 3.   Kenpom Valpo = 38 Monmouth 65 4.   Non-Conference SOS Valpo 52 and Monmouth 93 Reasons to take Valpo over Wichita St. 1.   Wichita St. 4-7 against top 100 Valpo 4-2 2.   Wichita St. 1-3 against top 50 Valpo 1-1 3.   Wichita 10-7 on road Valpo 12-5. Is it because we have brown and gold as our school colors?

Can't WSU can make a similar case about how injuries affected their W/L record?

But my reasons didn't say anything about injuries.  Just records.

Sorry, I didn't mean to sound like I was taking issue with your point, which I agree with.

[covufan]

3/10 GamesNeed Florida to lose to ArkansasNeed Michigan to lost to NorthwesternNeed GW to lose to St. Louis

Would be nice if North Carolina blew out Pittsburgh by 20 or more.  Butler beating Providence by 10 or so might help as well.  Tennessee beating Vandy might put Vandy down the line a bit as well.

[StlVUFan]

Can't WSU can make a similar case about how injuries affected their W/L record?

Absolutely.

[wh]

Just watched a Lunardi interview. He shows us in the 1st 4 out. St. Mary's is the last 1 in.

[mj]

I wonder if the SI article will help out on Selection Sunday. In the sense that it has raised national awareness about Valpo.

[VULB#62]

Its not gonna hurt us, that's for sure.  I also think that our performance against Maryland in last year's dance will also be on the committee's radar screen.

[VUSWIM08-12]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2016/3/11/11199642/bracketology-ncaa-tournament-college-basketball-vanderbilt-saint-marys-oregon-state

24-6; 16-2 Horizon; RPI: 52; SOS: 164; Non-conf. SOS: 53; KenPom: 36

Valpo entered this season as an overwhelming favorite in the Horizon League, which hampered Bryce Drew's ability to build his Crusaders a truly at-large worthy schedule. Therefore, Valparaiso enters this final weekend with a 1-1 mark against the Top 50 (a win at Oregon State and a six-point loss at Oregon two nights earlier) and a 3-1 record over teams sitting between 51st and 100th. The Crusaders wins in that group came over a conference tourney champ (Iona) and a pair of conference regular season champs (IPFW and Belmont, which split a home-and-home with Valpo).

Like Monmouth, Valparaiso did well away from home, going 12-4 in true road games. However, their lone neutral-court game, the Horizon semifinal loss to Green Bay, is the loss that has them in this very spot.

This profile resembles Iona's 2012 effort that got the Gaels into the First Four after they had trouble getting games. Perhaps history will repeat itself four years later.

[classof2014]

The first 4 should be for situations like these. A team that deserves to be in the tourney but had a bad game at the worst time possible. Is there a chance at an at-large. Yes, it would probably be a play-in game, which I'd be fine with. I give Valpo somewhere around a 30-40% chance at an at-large bid which would most likely be a play-in if Valpo got in.

[agibson]

I give Valpo somewhere around a 30-40% chance at an at-large bid which would most likely be a play-in if Valpo got in.

At Joe Louis I was thinking maybe 1 chance in 4. Today I'm feeling more like 1 in 10.

The NY Times ran a piece on the mid-major bubble: basically Wichita State, Monmouth, and Valpo.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/11/sports/ncaabasketball/monmouth-and-other-midmajor-champions-find-themselves-on-the-ncaa-bubble.html

Interesting to see how the consensus seems to be about like they describe: Wichita State more or less definitely in, Monmouth with a decent chance, Valpo with less of a chance.

Makes me wonder what the "story" is, if it's as simple as:

-)Wichita State avoiding bad losses, with a star injury story to tell, and with gaudy computer numbers.
-)Monmouth with some name wins and a bench full of hijinks that got the national spotlight, and somehow less discussion of their bad losses.
-)Valpo with a strong overall record, relatively lacking in name wins (because their reputation made scheduling impossible - but that's less often included as part of the story), and with just enough "bad" losses, and sufficiently tarnished computer numbers to keep them on the outside looking in.

Don't know that we can change the narrative. But, "scheduling was particularly impossible for us" and "injuries to key, if not star, players" seem like legitimate pieces of the narrative, but maybe too nuanced, too little too late.

I'd love to be surprised.

But, do we know the NIT schedule? Tuesday at the ARC?

[justducky]

I think the NCAA would love to find a way to slip both Monmouth and VU in. I am just not sure that our compiled final numbers (still coming in) will allow either team to make it. Losses by RI and Oregon St certainly do not help.

[vu72]

Right now Sagarin has us at 51 with a schedule ranked 163.  Monmouth is ranked 81 with a schedule ranked 172.

[agibson]

Losses by RI and Oregon St certainly do not help.

Rhode Island's been a bit disappointing, for sure.

I'd say Oregon State has done their part - beating Arizona State, losing to Cal, is consistent with the down-the-stretch, improved, Oregon State team.They've helped us out. Of course, beating Cal, maybe winding up ranked in the top 25 (not that their's a literal ballot before selection), would have helped us out even more.

[agibson]

Right now Sagarin has us at 51 with a schedule ranked 163.  Monmouth is ranked 81 with a schedule ranked 172.

KenPom has us 36, Monmouth 67. Somehow Wichita State's computer numbers get brought up more than ours... Admittedly #11 is pretty shiny. And I'd have loved Valpo to hang on to the #1 defensive efficiency number that Wichita State now holds. Of course, if that happened, we'd probably only be talking about seeding, and not an at-large prayer.

[VUSWIM08-12]

Michigan just hit a buzzer beater to beat Indiana, they may steal a spot now...

[talksalot]

you don't think they'd send Ohio State to Dayton... do you??

[rogerwilco]

Does UConn defeating Cincinnati in 4OTs help knock Cincy off the bubble?

[talksalot]

According to the XM College Sports guys... it hurts us... as it pushes UConn INTO the bracket ... off of the  line they have Valpo, the Next 4 in...it takes away one open space that we might have taken.

Cincinnati was already a lock

[Kyle321n]

Yeah I don't think that loss knocks Cincy out, since they are on the 9 line for Lunardi. What it does is helps someone who is on the same line as us (First Four Out)

[talksalot]

We need Tulsa and Michigan to lose ASAP.... Vandy losing helps...
Lunardi:  ON THE BUBBLE... reported early this morning...

Last Four Byes
Saint Joseph's - Beat GW this afternoon
USC - Lost to Utah last night
Oregon State - Lost to Cal last night
St. Bonaventure - plays Davidson tonight at 8pm CT


Last Four In
Pittsburgh - Lost to UNC last night
Monmouth - DONE
Vanderbilt - Lost to Tennessee yesterday
Saint Mary's - DONE


First Four Out
Syracuse- Lost to Pitt on Wednesday
Connecticut - Won Today, gets Temple in the American championship game 2pm tomorrow
Tulsa - Playing Memphis tonight
Valparaiso


Next Out
Florida - Lost to TA&M this afternoon
Michigan- Beat Top Seed Indiana - Move them up, they get Purdue at noon tomorrow
Ohio State - Tipping off against Michigan State at 5:30 CT
George Washington - Lost to St Joe's 86-80 this afternoon

[atkins]

We would be a great feelgood choice, and we certainly deserve a shot, but I suspect that the committee would find Monmouth's ooc performance superior.  Rankings based on both teams' respective below-par conference games add nothing of value to the committee's analysis.  I don't think either of us will get in.  There are too many other teams with better resumes. 

[SanityLost17]

With Rhode Island losing, Uconn winning, and Michigan winning.  We are screwed.  I still think either Monmouth or Us will get in to appease the mid-majors, but no way in hell do they have both.  They will pick one or the other.   Problem is, Monmouth's wins are flashier.  So, I think we are out.   

[d0uble3m]

While Monmouth has a pair of "flashier" wins, their loses are a lot worse then ours.

Only one of our loses was to a team with less than 20 wins. That one is Ball State who would have easily had 20 if they didn't fall flat on their face at the end of the season.

I know someone said in another post that head-to-heads don't matter, but I can't possibly think that when anyone on the committee is down to a couple of teams to put on their selections, they won't notice if the teams played each other or not...

[a3uge]

The selection committee doesn't act rationally or consistently. They'll take a team that finished 4-11 vs the top 100 RPI, where all 4 wins came at home. And then they'll take a team whose best OOC win was UC Irvine at home. Really makes no sense, so trying to explain or predict it is a lost cause.

[VULB#62]

Hey, where are you guys?  MD went down. Others are falling. Should I even watch the selection show?  Is there a bunch of Valpo BB players and coaches meeting somewhere to watch it in the hopes that an at-large bid lands in NW Indiana?  You BB experts can't desert us neofites now   

[a3uge]

Busy watching the bubble get bigger with San Diego State losing... Not much went right for Valpo after the regular season ended.