SectionEE's (plus special guest RLH) Horizon League Picks

[sectionee]

We made our picks for how we suspect the Horizon League will play out this season.  Fan Zone's very own RLH got into the action as well.  All three of us did some real deep thinking (ha) and here is what we came up with:
http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2011/07/sectionees-horizon-league-picks.html

[valpopal]

All three outlooks appear well reasoned, and I can't argue with any of them. However, I think VU is a wildcard team that could end up almost anywhere in the center of the pack, since I do believe the Crusaders are more of an unknown quantity with a handful of areas to be resolved when the season begins:

1. Coach: How will Bryce's style of coaching be different from Homer's style and how much respect will he get from officials as a first-year coach?  

2. Center: How healthy is Kevin and how many minutes can he contribute? (Has anyone seen him in open gym?) Will Vucic be able to step up this year? What is Vashil Fernandez's status? Will rebounding improve?

3. Scoring: How will we be able to replace Brandon in scoring and controlling the offense? Three-point shooting was disappointing last year, and it will be difficult to raise the percentage with Brandon gone? Will free throw shooting improve this year?

4. Defense: Last year the team showed a remarkable turnaround and played pretty good defense after terrible defense the year before. Which defensive team will show up this year?

5. Transfers: How quickly can the transfers blend into the team, especially since one will not be eligible until mid-December?  

[vu72]

I haven't taken the time to dig to deep into a prediction yet but my initial reaction is that you have YSU to low.  Sure, they are a difficult squad to understand, but, they had a bunch of new guys last year and only lose one.  Don't have any idea who they have coming in, but like us, having a year to play together can make a huge difference.
Remember, last year's team lost to WSU twice, each by 4 points.  Lost to Detroit by 4, Lost to us in O/T and beat Butler and Bowling Green, among others.
They will be nobody's patsies.

[valporun]

YSU might be selected too low, but we haven't really seen a whole lot of talent from the Penguins in recent seasons. UIC, Loyola, and WSU will markedly show that they are too young, or don't have the talent yet. The only things keeping Milwaukee and CSU in the middle pack is the veteran coaching, and having a few veterans returning this season. Unless the Panthers and Vikings find a couple of big-time scorers, they'll be middle of the pack, but not very competitive. We, at Valpo, have a handful of question marks, as stated in the uncertainty of our lineup (health, playing out of position, finding a major scorer), and what Bryce will do with the rotations and ball control as a head coach. Green Bay won't be much of a threat, although they could be that team that everyone overlooks, leading the Phoenix to pick up a few unexpected wins. The teams who will really battle for the title would be Detroit and Butler. Detroit with the veteran club and relentless coach, and Butler with its recent dominance of the conference, and how the players get their roles, accept the roles, and play in them together.

[sectionee]

I'm feeling like maybe I put GB to low.  Haha, we shall see.  With YSU, they can't get much worse then they were last year.  With them I kind of felt like they need to show something before they could get much respect.  The only reason they took Valpo into OT at home was Valpo's awful free throw shooting that game (below 50% if I remember right).

[zvillehaze]

I'm feeling like maybe I put GB to low.  Haha, we shall see.  With YSU, they can't get much worse then they were last year.  With them I kind of felt like they need to show something before they could get much respect.  The only reason they took Valpo into OT at home was Valpo's awful free throw shooting that game (below 50% if I remember right).

I think GB is still a year away, but I like what Wardell is doing and Alec Brown is very good.

I also think Milwaukee will be better than the 5/6 predicted by SectionEE and friends.  They lose Hill and Boyle, but return 6 of their top 8 rotation.  They plug in a proven commodity in James Haarsma (Cory Johnson type player) and add Paris Gulley, a big-time scorer in the JUCO ranks (along with some very talented freshmen).  Not sure how they'll gel, but they certainly have enough talent and depth to compete with anyone in the HL.

[rlh]

We all have our own ideas of how it will play out....it will be interesting to see if any of us have even an ounce of knowledge....my guess is probably not......

[zvillehaze]

We all have our own ideas of how it will play out....it will be interesting to see if any of us have even an ounce of knowledge....my guess is probably not......

Very true ... I've got no idea how this season will play out.

My rule of thumb for the Horizon is that it's very rare for teams to make huge leaps (good or bad) from year to year ... it's usually a gradual process.  Starting with the previous season's standings and moving teams up or down a spot or two normally gets you close.

In any case, I see the league race as wide open this year ... can't wait to get things started!