NIT

[vu72]

Our newcomer Micah is reported to bring solid shooting skills.  I hope he'll be able to contribute already next year.

Micah Bradford is the real deal.  Lightning quick, a slasher and able to score.  It will be hard to keep him off the floor.  Derrik is a completely different player than Vashil.  Let's face it, Vashil has a shooting range of less than 1 foot.  He misses many layups. Derrik will be able to pull guys away from the rim but can't be nearly as good of a shot blocker.  Our offense will change as will our defensive strategy.

[VULB#62]

But even 50% of Vashil by Derrik will be upside.

[StlVUFan]

I'm looking at both Big Apple Buckets and USA Today and neither one of them has us in the NCAA tourney.  The former has us an NIT 1 seed and the latter has us under Others considered for at-large.

[wh]

The slate has been wiped clean.  This is a fifth season for the seniors, and everyone needs to buy in to getting the seniors to NY City!  They can do this!

Agreed. I was vomiting last night like the rest of us.  The NIT still gets plenty of TV and press coverage.  Several regular season winners have lost in tournament play and there will be a bunch of Power 5 teams in the field.  Not sure about a home game, this isn't the CBI or CIT.

I believe that the NIT is seeded like the NCAA.  We could theoretically be seeded as a #1 or #2. I think the better seeds host.

My understanding is that Valpo already has been guaranteed a home game if they slip to the NIT.

As long as there's still basketball to be played, I'm still interested. A home game against a quality opponent (especially someone from a major conference) could draw very well.  I love this group and hope they can find some redemption in a successful NIT run! 

[valpotx]

A good run could also keep Bryce and major contributors with us another season (AP and KC).  If Keith gets an extra year and we have a good NIT run, it will drive them to do even better next season.  Then again, it could also drive them straight to the same decision that many top HL players have been making when they have this option, straight into Tom Izzo's arms

[HailVU2014]

Unless some of these teams get at-large bids into the NCAAs, the NIT is full of auto-bids at the moment, 11 as 8:45pm CT on March 9th:

North Florida- Atlantic Sun
High Point- Big South
Hofstra- Colonial
Valparaiso- Horizon
Monmouth- MAAC
Wichita State- Missouri Valley
Wagner- Northeast
Belmont- Ohio Valley
Bucknell- Patriot
Fort Wayne- Summit
St. Mary's- West Coast

[bbtds]

Unless some of these teams get at-large bids into the NCAAs, the NIT is full of auto-bids at the moment, 11 as 8:45pm CT on March 9th:

North Florida- Atlantic Sun
High Point- Big South
Hofstra- Colonial
Valparaiso- Horizon
Monmouth- MAAC
Wichita State- Missouri Valley
Wagner- Northeast
Belmont- Ohio Valley
Bucknell- Patriot
Fort Wayne- Summit
St. Mary's- West Coast

We are better than every one of those teams, unless we are injured, or shoot poorly, play bad defense, have too many turnovers and it's an end of the year win-or-go-home tournament.

[usc4valpo]

you have many "unless" conditions in your assessment, and the others on the list could say the same thing. I would say St. Mary's, Belmont and Valpo are pretty similar...

[talksalot]

32-teams
4-regions
top four teams in each region host a game
Highest seed survives to play at home until NYC.

(Here's the 2015 bracket)

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/brackets/viewable_nit

If I counted correctly 10 of the 32 were Power-5 teams... and 2 of the opening round games were between power-5 schools...Pitt was the only one of the 10 to lose in the opening round... at home to GW.

Arena size doesn't matter... St Mary's only seats about 3,000 on a good day...

[historyman]

Arena size doesn't matter... St Mary's only seats about 3,000 on a good day...

What is a "bad" day for St Mary's arena? When about 500 fat people decide to show up and it only seats 2,500?

[Kyle321n]

As much as I think we deserve an at large bid, holy crap do I want three power 5 schools to have to come to Valpo. When's the last time a top 100 RPI power 5 school came to Valpo? I think it was Purdue in 2011. Since that game the non-con top 100 (via KenPom) opponents we've had at the ARC:

2011-- #66 Iona
2011-- #71 Missouri St.
2012-- #69 Akron
2014-- #35 Saint Louis
2014-- #86 Mercer
2016-- #70 Iona

Let's get Kansas St, VaTech, and Ohio St to come to the ARC. They played a combined 4 true road OOC games this season, so let's see if they deign to play in the ARC.

[ValpoHoops]

As much as I think we deserve an at large bid, holy crap do I want three power 5 schools to have to come to Valpo. When's the last time a top 100 RPI power 5 school came to Valpo? I think it was Purdue in 2011. Since that game the non-con top 100 (via KenPom) opponents we've had at the ARC:

2011-- #66 Iona
2011-- #71 Missouri St.
2012-- #69 Akron
2014-- #35 Saint Louis
2014-- #86 Mercer
2016-- #70 Iona

Let's get Kansas St, VaTech, and Ohio St to come to the ARC. They played a combined 4 true road OOC games this season, so let's see if they deign to play in the ARC.

There have been 5 "power" conference games at the ARC since the turn of the century, and I'm even stretching that to include New Mexico since the Mountain West was a lot stronger then.

New Mexico
Marquette
Cincinnati
Purdue (twice)

[talksalot]

Quote from: talksalot on Today at 07:04:32 AM
Arena size doesn't matter... St Mary's only seats about 3,000 on a good day...

What is a "bad" day for St Mary's arena? When about 500 fat people decide to show up and it only seats 2,500?

Or Playing Stanford or Gonzaga at home as their only sell-outs...

St Mary's Home Games with attendance

11/13/15   SAN FRANCISCO ST        2589
11/16/15   MANHATTAN               2242
11/22/15   STANFORD                3500
11/29/15   CSU BAKERSFIELD           2340
12/04/15  UC DAVIS                2506
12/06/15   UC IRVINE           2333
12/14/15   CAL POLY                2183
12/16/15   SOUTHERN UTAH           1836
12/21/15   SAN FRANCISCO           2408
12/28/15   UTAH VALLEY             2113
12/31/15   BRIGHAM YOUNG           3183
01/02/16   UNIVERSITY OF SAN DIEGO 2185
01/14/16   PACIFIC                 2983
01/21/16   GONZAGA                 3500
01/23/16   PORTLAND                3338
02/11/16   PEPPERDINE              3340
02/13/16   LOYOLA MARYMOUNT        3165
02/25/16   SANTA CLARA             3165
03/01/16   GRAND CANYON UNIV       2735

[agibson]

John Templon drops us to a two seed (seems more realistic; hopefully conference tournaments don't further erode it). Still could mean two games at the ARC, maybe one against a "power" conference team. First round almost certainly against an AQ, if we keep a 1 or 2 seed.

Bracketmatrix has 7 of almost 100 brackets still including us as an at-large. Good for probably a 2-seed NIT or maybe squeaking into a one.

I'd overlooked Purdue playing twice at the ARC this century!

[VULB#62]

Quote from: talksalot on Today at 07:04:32 AM
Arena size doesn't matter... St Mary's only seats about 3,000 on a good day...

What is a "bad" day for St Mary's arena? When about 500 fat people decide to show up and it only seats 2,500?

Or Playing Stanford or Gonzaga at home as their only sell-outs...

St Mary's Home Games with attendance

11/13/15   SAN FRANCISCO ST        2589
11/16/15   MANHATTAN               2242
11/22/15   STANFORD                3500
11/29/15   CSU BAKERSFIELD           2340
12/04/15  UC DAVIS                2506
12/06/15   UC IRVINE           2333
12/14/15   CAL POLY                2183
12/16/15   SOUTHERN UTAH           1836
12/21/15   SAN FRANCISCO           2408
12/28/15   UTAH VALLEY             2113
12/31/15   BRIGHAM YOUNG           3183
01/02/16   UNIVERSITY OF SAN DIEGO 2185
01/14/16   PACIFIC                 2983
01/21/16   GONZAGA                 3500
01/23/16   PORTLAND                3338
02/11/16   PEPPERDINE              3340
02/13/16   LOYOLA MARYMOUNT        3165
02/25/16   SANTA CLARA             3165
03/01/16   GRAND CANYON UNIV       2735

They trended +3000 once they started really winning in conference -- that's kinda like filling the O'Rena

[vu72]

Unless some of these teams get at-large bids into the NCAAs, the NIT is full of auto-bids at the moment, 11 as 8:45pm CT on March 9th:

North Florida- Atlantic Sun
High Point- Big South
Hofstra- Colonial
Valparaiso- Horizon
Monmouth- MAAC
Wichita State- Missouri Valley
Wagner- Northeast
Belmont- Ohio Valley
Bucknell- Patriot
Fort Wayne- Summit
St. Mary's- West Coast

Just checked the Sagarin rankings where we have dropped to #51.  At the moment, of the teams listed above, we have the 3rd best ranking behind Wichita St (#25) and St. Mary's (#32).  I don't see another conference leader with a lower ranking then us.  The committee will no doubt add a couple of Power 5 teams ranked higher than us--possibly a Vanderbilt (record 19-12 #19) or Michigan (record 19-11 #37) or even Florida St. (record 19-13 #44).  I see us as a 2.

[IndyValpo]

Currently we are all over the place.  I have seen us as a NCAA 11 or 12 or a NIT 1 or 2.

Note there are still several conference champions alive that may be in the NIT:

Temple         American
VCU                   A 10
AR-Little Rock   Sun Belt
San Diego St   MW
Hawaii           Big West
Akron           MAC
SF Austin           Southland
Stony Brook   Am. East
UAB                   C-USA
Weber State   Big Sky
New Mexico St   WAC
Texas Southern   SWAC
Hampton           MEAC

[vu72]

Currently we are all over the place.  I have seen us as a NCAA 11 or 12 or a NIT 1 or 2.

Note there are still several conference champions alive that may be in the NIT:

Temple         American
VCU                   A 10
AR-Little Rock   Sun Belt
San Diego St   MW
Hawaii           Big West
Akron           MAC
SF Austin           Southland
Stony Brook   Am. East
UAB                   C-USA
Weber State   Big Sky
New Mexico St   WAC
Texas Southern   SWAC
Hampton           MEAC

So if more regular conference champions lose does that improve our chances of getting into the NCAAs?  Almost all of those leaders would have seeds lower than we would.  It pushes worse teams higher in the seeding but does it help us?  One thing is for sure and that is the more conference champs losing in their tournaments the less interesting the NIT will be. The more lower seeds the fewer spots available for Big 5 teams.  No disrespect, but the fans at the ARC would much rather see a Big 5 team then Wagner or High Point.

[agibson]

No disrespect, but the fans at the ARC would much rather see a Big 5 team then Wagner or High Point.

Somebody like a Belmont or an IPFW could happen in the first round (do they avoid rematches?), if we're a two seed. A one seed probably is that Wagner or High Point, or Hampton, etc.

The second round could perhaps be more interesting (gotta win first, obviously), and more likely to depend on how many conference champs get bumped down.

I'll be curious to see how the NIT evaluates the "bubble". It would seem there's a non-zero chance that we get bumped down to a 3 seed or so. It would be hard to imagine playing on the road, but...

And, welcome, UAB.

[ValpoHoops]

So if more regular conference champions lose does that improve our chances of getting into the NCAAs?

Look at it this way:
Is the team that lost a team that would be an at-large team if they weren't a conference champ?

If they are, it would hurt us as it makes the bubble smaller (or at least puts another team on it).

If they aren't, it won't matter, they simply replace one team with another in the "auto-bid only" category.

At this point, we need bubble teams that lead one-bid leagues to win to help whatever tiny chance we may still have. If they are going to be in anyways, don't let another team from that league get in.

[ValpoHoops]

It would seem there's a non-zero chance that we get bumped down to a 3 seed or so. It would be hard to imagine playing on the road, but...

Top 4 seeds in each region get home games. If we were a 2, we would be guaranteed two home games, provided we won the first, and could get three if the #1 lost along the way.

As a #3, we would get one, and possibly two or three, again provided we win.

[bbtds]

you have many "unless" conditions in your assessment, and the others on the list could say the same thing. I would say St. Mary's, Belmont and Valpo are pretty similar...

It was a very facetious comment.

[agibson]

Seems like a first-round rematch against IPFW or maybe even Belmont -could- happen if that's the best balance of competitive balance, geography, and trying to avoid the rematch (in that order).

A second round home game would be tricky, maybe not impossible, because of the Lutheran Junior High basketball tournament.

If they can't make it work I wonder if they'd consider VHS or the UIC pavilion (hopefully less controversial than the Trump rally!) or something rather than playing a true road game.

[VULB#62]

Seems like a first-round rematch against IPFW or maybe even Belmont -could- happen if that's the best balance of competitive balance, geography, and trying to avoid the rematch (in that order).

A second round home game would be tricky, maybe not impossible, because of the Lutheran Junior High basketball tournament.

If they can't make it work I wonder if they'd consider VHS or the UIC pavilion (hopefully less controversial than the Trump rally!) or something rather than playing a true road game.

If, for one night or afternoon, Valpo was not playing in the ARC, it would not be right, IMO.  For that 3-4 hour time block, move the LHS tournament to VHS.

[Valpo89]

Uh, a high school floor isn't the same size. That wouldn't happen.