NCAA 2016

[a3uge]

Well I don't think there could be a better example of the difference in talent between the Horizon League and the Missouri Valley. Green Bay (4 in horizon) looked like they didn't belong on the same floor as A&M while Northern Iowa (4 in the MVC) are seemingly pretty evenly matched. Still early but they seem to be able to play with and beat A&M.

Northern Iowa is a goofy team this year... They beat North Carolina, Iowa State, and SFA, but lost to Loyola twice, Missouri State, and Indiana State. I doubt Evansville or Illinois State wins vs Texas A&M or Texas, but there's definitely a gap between the top 4 or 5 in the MVC vs the top 4 or 5 in the Horizon.

[a3uge]

If you ever think Valpo finishes out a game poorly, watxh UNI's collapse tonight. Most brutal final minute in basketball history.

[agibson]

If you ever think Valpo finishes out a game poorly, watxh UNI's collapse tonight. Most brutal final minute in basketball history.

So, STL, was it statistically safe? 12 points [fumble fingerdly originally typed as 23] in... A little less than 45 seconds?

[valpo84]

UNI did 2 things that helped cause their demise -- 1) they tried to slow the game down too much in the last few minutes (aka also see ST Joes).  We have discussed this here where we believe we let the air out too soon.  Teams need to keep running their sets and look for good shots, not wait til 4 secs and try to go one on one.  This is especially true of mid majors vs major teams because the mids don't necessarily have a player who can create the shot. Think from the Tourney Middle Tenn continuing to attack WVa, FGCU vs GTown a couple years ago, and even us vs Oregon State this year.  As they say about a prevent D in football -- it prevents you from winning! 2) there seemed to be a penchant by UNI and other teams yesterday to not fully utilize the last few secs of a game.  When tied or down 2 or less, you only need a 2.  Advance the ball as far in the front court as possible.  Examples include Danny Ainge vs ND, Ty Edny vs UCLA, Alec Peters vs UWGB.  Get the ball moving up the court.  UNI heaved a half court shot with nearly 3 secs on clock, he had 3 more dribbles.  Wisky actually could have continued moving the ball w/o a TO or in their case called the TO and went with a set play.  We all know that you can score with 1.9 left on the clock.  But for whatever reason, there was a lot of heaving going around late last night.  (Maybe the Buddy Hield and Jesperson half court shots have inspired this, I don't know but it's frustrating.  Heck US Reed's half courter against Louisville was over 30 years ago). 3) Valpo and some other teams showed the home run ball is helpful in those pressing situations. Instead UNI threw to the corner and Washpun panicked.  He had a jump pass available, he could have thrown in out earlier, or have a better pick play set up.  Heck heave it high and down court and let the seconds tick away as the ball was in play. 

[a3uge]

UNI did 2 things that helped cause their demise -- 1) they tried to slow the game down too much in the last few minutes (aka also see ST Joes).  We have discussed this here where we believe we let the air out too soon.  Teams need to keep running their sets and look for good shots, not wait til 4 secs and try to go one on one.  This is especially true of mid majors vs major teams because the mids don't necessarily have a player who can create the shot. Think from the Tourney Middle Tenn continuing to attack WVa, FGCU vs GTown a couple years ago, and even us vs Oregon State this year.  As they say about a prevent D in football -- it prevents you from winning! 2) there seemed to be a penchant by UNI and other teams yesterday to not fully utilize the last few secs of a game.  When tied or down 2 or less, you only need a 2.  Advance the ball as far in the front court as possible.  Examples include Danny Ainge vs ND, Ty Edny vs UCLA, Alec Peters vs UWGB.  Get the ball moving up the court.  UNI heaved a half court shot with nearly 3 secs on clock, he had 3 more dribbles.  Wisky actually could have continued moving the ball w/o a TO or in their case called the TO and went with a set play.  We all know that you can score with 1.9 left on the clock.  But for whatever reason, there was a lot of heaving going around late last night.  (Maybe the Buddy Hield and Jesperson half court shots have inspired this, I don't know but it's frustrating.  Heck US Reed's half courter against Louisville was over 30 years ago). 3) Valpo and some other teams showed the home run ball is helpful in those pressing situations. Instead UNI threw to the corner and Washpun panicked.  He had a jump pass available, he could have thrown in out earlier, or have a better pick play set up.  Heck heave it high and down court and let the seconds tick away as the ball was in play.

Great post! I wanted to follow up on a few points.

1) UNI did take the air out of the ball the last few minutes of the game, much like some of the Valpo games we've watched... Their strategy seemed to be to wind the shot clock down and hoist a deep 3 with the shot clock expiring (this was also SFAs strategy yesterday). With that said, they did make some of those deep shots and were up 12 with under a minute left, which many are saying hasn't happened at a college level before. Being up 12 with under a minute left means the game is statistically over, so it's hard to blame the loss on anything that happened in the previous 39 minutes of play.

2) Wisconsin was in a similar situation at the end of regulation. They inbounded the ball and called a timeout at half court with 1.9 left. This was excellent awareness by the players, and excellent coaching by Gard. Wisconsin, of course, won the game on a three in the corner. UNI attempted 3 half court shots in their past 2 games, when really, none of those were necessary. The end of the 1st OT was the most egregious. Horrible situational awareness, and terrible coaching.

3) UNI did run the home run ball a possession earlier! And it worked! Then the next inbound, they completely unraveled again. Washburn panicked after getting the ball in the worst possible spot - in the corner (which is a huge no-no). #20 was actually open for a pass, but he didn't pass it initially, and then #20 didn't move towards the ball. Then, instead of forcing a pass to the sideline, he throws it in towards his own basket! Unbelievable decision-making there.

[agibson]

3) UNI did run the home run ball a possession earlier! And it worked! Then the next inbound, they completely unraveled again. Washburn panicked after getting the ball in the worst possible spot - in the corner (which is a huge no-no). #20 was actually open for a pass, but he didn't pass it initially, and then #20 didn't move towards the ball. Then, instead of forcing a pass to the sideline, he throws it in towards his own basket! Unbelievable decision-making there.

I've not listened to much of the punditry in this year's NCAA, but happened to catch a bit of the panel after UNI. Charles Barkley basically called it a UNI collapse, noted that they were young men and that he'd have harsher words for NBA players, but pretty well heaped the blame on them.

I didn't see the end of regulation, but he made it sound like middle school type mistakes.

How often has a "statistically safe" lead been blown? Not so often, for sure...

[usc4valpo]

despite the loss SFA has a lot to be proud of. They were over matched talent wise,  but played great in the tournament. Underwood is an outstanding coach and I doubt he will be at Nacadoches for much longer.

[justducky]

I've not listened to much of the punditry in this year's NCAA, but happened to catch a bit of the panel after UNI. Charles Barkley basically called it a UNI collapse, noted that they were young men and that he'd have harsher words for NBA players, but pretty well heaped the blame on them.

I didn't see the end of regulation, but he made it sound like middle school type mistakes.

Barkley isn't totally wrong here but for the most part I try to listen to nothing that moron says. Why do they keep him around?

[a3uge]

3) UNI did run the home run ball a possession earlier! And it worked! Then the next inbound, they completely unraveled again. Washburn panicked after getting the ball in the worst possible spot - in the corner (which is a huge no-no). #20 was actually open for a pass, but he didn't pass it initially, and then #20 didn't move towards the ball. Then, instead of forcing a pass to the sideline, he throws it in towards his own basket! Unbelievable decision-making there.

I've not listened to much of the punditry in this year's NCAA, but happened to catch a bit of the panel after UNI. Charles Barkley basically called it a UNI collapse, noted that they were young men and that he'd have harsher words for NBA players, but pretty well heaped the blame on them.

I didn't see the end of regulation, but he made it sound like middle school type mistakes.

How often has a "statistically safe" lead been blown? Not so often, for sure...

I believe twice ever: once in 2011, a 10 point lead blown by Virginia with 42 seconds left (Miami had the ball). The other by Duke vs UNC in 1974... 8 pt game in 17 seconds.

A 10 point lead with the ball under 57 seconds is statistically safe. A 12 point lead without the ball is statistically safe under 1:12. This was perhaps the biggest collapse of all time in a sporting event. The most amazing part was that Texas A&M actually missed a three pointer with 38 seconds left (down 12), but got the offensive rebound and a put-back. Oh, and they blew a lead in the first OT also - they had a 1pt lead shooting 2 free throws with 17 seconds left.

[bbtds]

despite the loss SFA has a lot to be proud of. They were over matched talent wise,  but played great in the tournament. Underwood is an outstanding coach and I doubt he will be at Nacadoches for much longer.

We don't like it when Valparaiso is misspelled.................it's Na-cog-doches (Naa-Cog-Doh-Chess)

Lazy Texas drawl-------------Na-ca-doh-chezzzz

[usc4valpo]

gotcha. I wish the Jacks won, my wife is an SFA alum and Zach Auguste of ND is an annoying dork.

[StlVUFan]

If you ever think Valpo finishes out a game poorly, watxh UNI's collapse tonight. Most brutal final minute in basketball history.

So, STL, was it statistically safe? 23 points in... A little less than 45 seconds?

You mean 12, but yes it was.  And the formula is *not* broken.  I like to say "Statistically Safe lead" means in order for A&M to erase this lead, they would have to get some active help from UNI.... which is *exactly* what happened.

[valpotx]

Great news for Valpo that TCU is hiring Jamie Dixon away from Pitt (TCU alum)!

[chef]

Bryce would never go to TCU with Scott at Baylor.

[valpo84]

Chef--you didn't say anything about Pitt though....

[usc4valpo]

I do not think Bryce is going anywhere this year. Remotely other than Stanford, there are no decent job opportunities that he would be interested in. I am pretty sure the job in Wyoming will not be intriguing.

[a3uge]

I do not think Bryce is going anywhere this year. Remotely other than Stanford, there are no decent job opportunities that he would be interested in. I am pretty sure the job in Wyoming will not be intriguing.

But that brown and gold tho...

[ValpoDad89]

First off, Valpo beating FSU at home (great game and I got serious TV time on ESPNN) hurts us from getting a big time program to come to Valpo. A big run (which want we have only leads to more trepidation) But what the committee can do is put teams like Valpo and other mid majors in the tourney, with credentials of course, to force the mid ran top tier teams to play us to up thier RPIs. We did nothing to hurt Oregon or Oregon States RPI at all. I love college hoops but would rather see Valpo, Monmouth and St. Mary's in there rather than the mid level top tier teams. Syracuse doesn't belong there and hurts the argument as they are Sweet 16 but they had the benefit of a Top seed getting beat before them. And the Boeheim thing blows my mind as they were considered due to Boeheim being suspended. Well he was suspended for a reason, breaking NCAA rules. No consideration should've been given. They lost to Pitt in the first round of their conference tourney. That, to me should've been a play in game. But the ACC has 6 teams in the Sweet 16. Oh well.

Second, improve the facilities from a practice and private weight room perspective. Not a lot of capital to do and makes it more attractive. But winning and developing, which Bryce has done will always bring recruits. Dixon taking the TCU job makes Bryce more likely to stay and he is the best face of this program and what will sustain our winning. Peters can go bigger if he wants but if Bryce stays I think he does too. He has Adekoya, Hammink and Tevon Walker to build on plus a healthy Smits, depth may take a hit but I like where we are for next season. We should run away with the Horizon. And as far as depth, as bad as it sounds, I think we had too much this year and guys were checking in and out and at times I think it hurt our continuity. I know I'll be in the minority but an 8 man rotation is what want most go with. We will have that next year.

[chef]

I agree with everything said by ValpoDad89 expect for beating FSU hurts us from getting a big school to the ARC. No big schools are surprised we beat FSU, so it really doesn't change anything from that standpoint. Big schools aren't coming to the ARC for a regular season game.

[valpotx]

Are you saying that Bryce wouldn't have considered TCU because it is close to Baylor (recruiting similar kids), or because they are in the Big 12?  Did Bryce not really consider the Iowa State job last year, as media reports indicated?

[chef]

Both and I don't think Bryce every considered Iowa State. Media reports are complete B.S. Bryce would never tell anyone outside the family, so media members have no clue. They get their info from someone at the school hoping it will cause a buzz. Bryce never wanted the DePaul job, but Shannon Ryan (Chicago Trib) said he did. Where do you think she was told that? Certainly not from anyone close to Bryce Drew. I know that because I asked her, and she had no answer.

[usc4valpo]

chef,

Bryce is much smarter to ever deal with the current cesspool that is DePaul basketball. They are living in the past and it is pathetic their AD still has a job. They have no committment or plan for success, which is sad considering there is much basketball talent in Chicagoland.

[oklahomamick]

I agree with everything said by ValpoDad89 expect for beating FSU hurts us from getting a big school to the ARC. No big schools are surprised we beat FSU, so it really doesn't change anything from that standpoint. Big schools aren't coming to the ARC for a regular season game.

If Oakland can get Georgia to go to the Orena, Valpo can find a way.

[valpotx]

Brad Underwood accepted the Oklahoma State job.  One top mid-major coach off the board. 

What chef says does make sense, as it seems like Bryce is mentioned as interviewing for every position that comes open.  He would have to be eager to leave, if he truly interviewed for each job that mentioned him as such.

[ValpoDad89]

This is going to sound bad but take it from a DePaul alum and former season ticket holder, the women in sports journalism have a liking of Ponsetto (DePaul's AD). Toni Ginetti who had covered college basketball for the Sun Times was and is a close personal friend of Ponsetto's. Women in Chicago sports stick together to protect one of their own. They would never speak ill of her despite her lack of ability for a being an AD in a big time basketball conference. Having Drew and Howland as prospective candidates helps her credibility, despite the fact Howland never wanted to work for her., nor it appears Drew either .There is a reason they're stuck with an also ran like Dave Leitao, who no one was even considering to HC again. No one wants to work for her and her meddling ways as well as the fact she's turned a once proud program into a national joke.