Union Street Hoops

[VUBBFan]

I think it's time for another episode.

[Pgmado]

I think it's time for another episode.

Coming on Monday. Bronchitis wiped me out last week and I want to see North Dakota game before a new episode.

[NativeCheesehead]

[bbtds]

https://www.everydayhealth.com/lung-and-respiratory/bronchitis/understanding-what-causes-bronchitis-how-prevent-it/

[VALPO LI]

Guess who's back!!!!
Paul is back with another Union Street Hoops!!!


https://www.nwitimes.com/blogs/sports/inside-vu-sports/podcast-union-street-hoops-genesis-exodus/article_14533b7e-0caa-11ea-a21c-677d26d2bed3.html

[zvillehaze]

New podcast came out late last week with a nice interview with Casey Schmidt.  Interesting information about his time at Arizona and how he returned to Valpo U.  I got to see Arizona up close during Casey's freshman year and he's right about the talent level they had on that team.  Good listen.

[EddieCabot]

Another new podcast is out.  I listen to them all and am usually very complimentary.   However, this one was a bit lacking.  Paul admitted he didn't understand the KenPom ratings (please, someone have your middle school student explain to him how probabilities work), but he then spent 30 minutes reading metrics from KenPom's site.  For those who haven't listened yet, I'll let you know Paul thinks the perception of the team would be more positive if they had won more games.  #SpoilerAlert

[VUGrad1314]

Isn't that obvious? I mean think about it. If Evansville hadn't have had that bad stretch where they lost to SMU ECU and (I think) somebody else they might have been in the conversation for an at large bid even with the egg they laid down in Jacksonville Alabama or at least that game might have had a chance of being Q1. As it is that's not the case and it's probably going to be Q3. And I promise I'd be singing a different tune about this Valpo club if they had beaten Cincinnati and Arkansas even though they had other down moments (Nevada EMU Charlotte) they would have been a heck of a lot easier to forget with those two wins.

[Just Sayin]

Another new podcast is out.  I listen to them all and am usually very complimentary.   However, this one was a bit lacking.  Paul admitted he didn't understand the KenPom ratings (please, someone have your middle school student explain to him how probabilities work), but he then spent 30 minutes reading metrics from KenPom's site.  For those who haven't listened yet, I'll let you know Paul thinks the perception of the team would be more positive if they had won more games.  #SpoilerAlert

The KenPom numbers are a snapshot in time based upon how the teams perform relative to all 353 teams and the projected records are based on the probability of winning given these numbers. As the season progresses, these numbers will change. The more games that are played and how well each team does offensively and defensively against the strength of their opponents will more accurately reflect which teams are good and which teams are average and which teams suck. So it's way too early to rely upon the projected placing within any conference. KenPom uses the Box Scores of each of 353 teams and he ranks them by their Adj.EM,(Adjusted Efficiency Margin= AdjO minus AdjD) which is:


KenPom Rankings based on AdjEM:

Offensive efficiency
Points scored per 100 offensive possessions.



Defensive efficiency
Points allowed per 100 defensive possessions.



In order to compute efficiency, we need to know how to compute possessions.
Possessions
We can estimate possessions very well from box score stats by using this formula.

FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA


For each team, possessions are counted for the team and their opponents, and then averaged.

Efficiency gives us broad view of how well the offense or defense functions, but we can break efficiency into what Dean Oliver dubbed the Four Factors. Shooting, rebounding, turnovers, and free throws provide the basic components of efficiency.

Possession Stats 101 | The kenpom.com blog
https://kenpom.com/blog/possession-stats-101/

[Just Sayin]

Paul states in his podcast,

"If Valpo had beaten [in close games that could have been won] Arkansas and Cincy, how different are we talking about the team? ...If they beat Ark and Cincy, I'm telling you that they are good. So that line is so thin right now. So if Valpo had beaten Cincy and beaten Ark are we predicting them to finish 7th? Probably not, we're probably predicting them to finish fourth."

IF Valpo had won those games, KenPom's numbers would have reflected that and in all likelihood KenPom's ranking would have predicted us to finish in fourth place or better. But Valpo didn't win those games and what is, is.

[Pgmado]

Another new podcast is out.  I listen to them all and am usually very complimentary.   However, this one was a bit lacking.  Paul admitted he didn't understand the KenPom ratings (please, someone have your middle school student explain to him how probabilities work), but he then spent 30 minutes reading metrics from KenPom's site.  For those who haven't listened yet, I'll let you know Paul thinks the perception of the team would be more positive if they had won more games.  #SpoilerAlert

Fair assessment. Had two guests lined up but scheduling didn't work out because of holidays. Scrambled at last second. Went with KenPom as guide. Still fighting sinus infection so I was coughing up a lung during the recording. Good editing to get those out of there.

Point is, KenPom numbers are odd. Northern Iowa predicted to win 17 out of 18 games, but also predicted to finish 13-5 on same site. Almost every game is predicted to be within one or two possessions.

I'm interested what the outside convo about Valpo would be had they pulled off the Cincy and Arkansas wins. As it is, Valpo in top half of the league in NET.

[covufan]

Haven't seen the kenpom numbers, but having UNI above 50% chance of winning in 17 if 18 games may equate to 13-5 season prediction. Each game prediction is set at a %, then added together for season prediction. 18 games each at 66.67% chance of winning would be 18-0 when adding up each win. But add up the season and the prediction is 12-6.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[wh]

I have a vested interest in Valpo winning the league.  IF Valpo falls out of contention, I'll look at the rest of field in terms of match-ups for the conference tournament.  Once the conference tournament begins, no one but Valpo matters again.  If Valpo loses in the tournament, I'll pull for the best remaining team.  Simple.   

BTW, this should be common sense to any true Valpo fan. If someone thinks otherwise, I would have to question their loyalty to the program.

[GoldenCrusader87]

Not a bad episode - I enjoyed it. Here's to hoping Paul's feeling better.

[Pgmado]

Not a bad episode - I enjoyed it. Here's to hoping Paul's feeling better.

I appreciate that. I'm going in for a CT scan on my sinuses in mid-January. Just haven't been able to shake this damn thing.

[EddieCabot]

Not a bad episode - I enjoyed it. Here's to hoping Paul's feeling better.

I appreciate that. I'm going in for a CT scan on my sinuses in mid-January. Just haven't been able to shake this damn thing.

Sinus infections are the worst!  Hope you're feeling better soon!

[valpo64]

I like my simple approach to the rankings:   If we win more MVC games than anyone else and lose less than anyone else, we will win the Conference.  Period.  I mean, you can bank on that 100%.

[Pgmado]

Feeling down about Tuesday's loss to Southern Illinois?

Jump into the time machine as Aaron Leavitt and I examine Valparaiso's All-Decade Team. We ended up picking the 13 best single-seasons over the last 10 years without repeating a player. (Alec Peters is clearly the best PF, but which version of Alec was the best?). This was an enjoyable episode to discuss.

https://www.nwitimes.com/blogs/sports/inside-vu-sports/podcast-union-street-hoops-the-all-decade-episode/article_dd123568-3182-11ea-b217-932355740bc3.html#tracking-source=home-the-latest

[bbtds]

The moment Aaron says "you have to specify your Moussas" has to be the highlight of this podcast.

I also have to say that the greatness of Alec Peters his junior year ruined it for his senior year when he got hurt also because Shane Hammink was so devastated by Alec's absence that he shut it down in the HL tournament in Detroit. I was so disappointed in the shooting against Milwaukee since with Shane & Tevonn they were still really talented. That hurt the most compared to expectations. Also because Bryce left after Alec Peters' junior year and doesn't seem to want to come back to coach Valpo.

[VUBBFan]

The moment Aaron says "you have to specify your Moussas" has to be the highlight of this podcast. I also have to say that the greatness of Alec Peters his junior year ruined it for his senior year when he got hurt also because Shane Hammink was so devastated by Alec's absence that he shut it down in the HL tournament in Detroit. I was so disappointed in the shooting against Milwaukee since with Shane & Tevonn they were still really talented. That hurt the most compared to expectations. Also because Bryce left after Alec Peters' junior year and doesn't seem to want to come back to coach Valpo.

If I remember correctly, Shane was battling a bad case of the flu. He could hardly move.

[EddieCabot]

Latest episode was a great trip down memory lane!  Fun to look back on all the great players Valpo had during the decade and amazing to recall all the successful seasons they had. 

The real shame is that both Ryan and Alec didn't get more opportunities to display their talents in the NCAA tournament.  As Paul mentioned, the '15-'16 team would likely have gone to the Sweet 16 or beyond.  Unfortunately, they got knocked off by Green Bay in the first Motor City Sadness and then were snubbed by the selection committee.  Of course, the next season could have been even better, but was derailed by the NCAA (Carter), the NCAA again (Jubril) and injury (Peters).

I know they were focused on identifying the decade's best players, but I think they could have spent more time discussing the what might have been the biggest event of the decade ... the move to the MVC.  Despite the early struggles, I think the move will be great in the long term.  Transition is tough ... look how other mid-majors like Creighton, Xavier, Butler and Wichita State had challenges when taking big steps up in conference.  Of those teams, only Xavier has been able to break through and win a conference championship.  It takes some time to adjust.

[bbtds]

The moment Aaron says "you have to specify your Moussas" has to be the highlight of this podcast. I also have to say that the greatness of Alec Peters his junior year ruined it for his senior year when he got hurt also because Shane Hammink was so devastated by Alec's absence that he shut it down in the HL tournament in Detroit. I was so disappointed in the shooting against Milwaukee since with Shane & Tevonn they were still really talented. That hurt the most compared to expectations. Also because Bryce left after Alec Peters' junior year and doesn't seem to want to come back to coach Valpo.

If I remember correctly, Shane was battling a bad case of the flu. He could hardly move.

I really think it was more the "injured Alec flu" that was bothering Shane then. Some people tried to explain it off. 

[VUBBFan]

Still waiting for this week's Union Street Hoops, but this podcast will suffice. Nice job Paul.

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/1217898694474960900

[VUGrad1314]

I hope he stays and works on his game for another year at least (selfishly I want him to stay two more for obvious reasons) I wouldn't be surprised to see him at least test the waters this year and (hopefully) come back for his Junior year. If he does that, keeps developing his overall game, and works on\develops his outside shot, he is a first round LOCK.

[valpotx]

The one positive at this point with JFL, is that he would have to sit out a year, after the huge year he is having.  His ideal time to leave was probably after last season, due to expected professional ambitions.  If anything, my guess is that he graduates early.