Bracketology

[talksalot]

NOT ON TOPIC

We need to get Vermont on the schedule next year... on the road.   94 miles to the home town of Mr. Walker north of the border.

[VUBBFan]

We need to get Vermont on the schedule next year... on the road.   94 miles to the home town of Mr. Walker north of the border.


Hey don't forget Mr. Joseph too.

[VU2014]

NOT ON TOPIC

We need to get Vermont on the schedule next year... on the road.   94 miles to the home town of Mr. Walker north of the border.

We'll be in the neighborhood because we are going to Rhode Island next year to complete the 2 for 1 scheduling with URI. Side Note bummer URI has been slipping (affecting our RPI and Resume booster).

I believe we are going to Santa Clara next season. Could be a great opportunity for the coaches to go recruiting and scouting in Cali next year. I can't remember the last player we recruited from California. Just something to possibly look forward to.

[talksalot]

Quote (selected)
NOT ON TOPIC

We need to get Vermont on the schedule next year... on the road.   94 miles to the home town of Mr. Walker north of the border.

We'll be in the neighborhood because we are going to Rhode Island next year to complete the 2 for 1 scheduling with URI. Side Note bummer URI has been slipping (affecting our RPI and Resume booster).

Almost 400 miles from Montreal to URI.  I'm thinking about the game Blackridge played for SC when he had all of those family members from Illinois in the ARC... just sayin'.

[VU2014]

I'm thinking about the game Blackridge played for SC when he had all of those family members from Illinois in the ARC... just sayin'.

Please explain. Not familiar with the whole situation.

[Kyle321n]

I'm thinking about the game Blackridge played for SC when he had all of those family members from Illinois in the ARC... just sayin'.

Please explain. Not familiar with the whole situation.

The only reason we played Santa Clara was because their star player, Jared Brownridge, is from Aurora, IL.

[VU2014]

The only reason we played Santa Clara was because their star player, Jared Brownridge, is from Aurora, IL.

Gotcha. Thanks.

[talksalot]

Sorry, Brownridge is right.   The reason Georgia played Oakland in the ORena is that they have 2 Detroit players on their roster...  Happens all the time.


I don't know if Tevonn and Max's families have made any games; might be a nice opportunity for that to happen as a thank you to those two.

Vermont's RPI is now 56, they are 8-0 in the America East; 22-14 last year finished RPI of 126.  We have never played those Catamounts.  (we haven't played the other catamount team either ... Western Carolina)

[justducky]

We need to move up about 15 more spots in RPI for us to really start moving up the seed lines. Right now Vermont is #52 in my rankings and Valpo is #66. Granted once we get to Vermont's spot we're talking boarderline at-large bid.

Looking at Bracketology  RPI, Sagarin, KenPom, Kyletology  BPI and their projections leaves me totally clueless as to our destiny. So I will just act like I am an expert and wing out some personal thoughts based on past NCAA and NIT observations.

Path #1-- No chance that this (or paths 2 or 3) happens but winning out and a HL Tournament championship would give us an 8 seed.
Path #2--One more road loss (GB, WSU, NKU or Oakland) and a Tournament championship gives us an 11 seed (slight chance for a 10).
Path #3-- Win out then lose HL championship game would put us in last 4 in or first one or two teams out.
Path #4--Tournament loss plus 1 more regular season loss. NIT 1 or 2 seed.
Path #5-- Tournament loss plus 2 more regular season losses. NIT 3 or 4 seed
Path #5--Tournament loss plus 3 more regular season losses.  As the HL automatic qualifier we would likely be a NIT #5 seed. Without being the automatic qualifier we would maintain only a slight chance for NIT at-large inclusion.
Path #6-- Anything worse has us waiting till next year!

Fire Away!

[Kyle321n]

We need to move up about 15 more spots in RPI for us to really start moving up the seed lines. Right now Vermont is #52 in my rankings and Valpo is #66. Granted once we get to Vermont's spot we're talking boarderline at-large bid.

Looking at Bracketology  RPI, Sagarin, KenPom, Kyletology  BPI and their projections leaves me totally clueless as to our destiny. So I will just act like I am an expert and wing out some personal thoughts based on past NCAA and NIT observations.

Path #1-- No chance that this (or paths 2 or 3) happens but winning out and a HL Tournament championship would give us an 8 seed.
Path #2--One more road loss (GB, WSU, NKU or Oakland) and a Tournament championship gives us an 11 seed (slight chance for a 10).
Path #3-- Win out then lose HL championship game would put us in last 4 in or first one or two teams out.
Path #4--Tournament loss plus 1 more regular season loss. NIT 1 or 2 seed.
Path #5-- Tournament loss plus 2 more regular season losses. NIT 3 or 4 seed
Path #5--Tournament loss plus 3 more regular season losses.  As the HL automatic qualifier we would likely be a NIT #5 seed. Without being the automatic qualifier we would maintain only a slight chance for NIT at-large inclusion.
Path #6-- Anything worse has us waiting till next year!

Fire Away!

Ok so I'll say that Path 1 would actually lead us to the conclusion of path 2.
Path 2 would probably get us an 11-12 seed.
Path 6 seems highly unlikely but injuries, suspensions, Oakland like slumps, etc are known to happen.

Here's what I'm thinking our likely outcomes are:

Win Out, Including Tournament: 11 Seed (5% likelihood)
Lose 1 road game, win tournament: 12-13 seed (depends on the opponent) (25% likelihood)
Lose 2-4 road games, win tournament: 14 seed (33% likelihood)
Win the HL Regular season, lose tournament: 2 seed in the NIT (33% likelihood)
Lose the HL Regular season, lose tournament: We're sitting at home. This team isn't taking a CIT or CBI invite. (<1% likelihood)

[VULB#62]

Latest USAToday Brackett has VU at #12 playing #5 BUTLER!

[Kyle321n]

Lunardi has us as a 13 seed vs. Purdue up in Milwaukee
Jerry Palm has us as a 13 seed vs. Wisconsin up in Milwaukee

Kyletology has us as a 14 seed vs. Arizona playing in Sacramento.
Other side of the bracket is 6. Xavier vs. 11. UNC-Wilmington.

[crusadermoe]

Do any have us losing and put Green Bay in the bracket?  Saturday really soured me on looking ahead.   

I'm wondering if our players have been looking at those brackets. I got caught up in it myself.

[Kyle321n]

Do any have us losing and put Green Bay in the bracket?  Saturday really soured me on looking ahead.   

I'm wondering if our players have been looking at those brackets. I got caught up in it myself.

No, but usually it's based on the regular season regular, so we're still in place to be the autobid. Rarely do they predict the conference tourneys

[agibson]

No, but usually it's based on the regular season regular, so we're still in place to be the autobid. Rarely do they predict the conference tourneys

Surely we'd still be the favorite. Just no longer a prohibitive favorite.

[Kyle321n]

You guys want a rematch? How about #14 seed Valpo vs. #3 seed Florida St. in Orlando.

Also I'll reveal my top 16 seeds. Guess what, my bracket is literally 1 vs 16 and 2 vs 15 so on etc. I have no idea what the NCAA is thinking about basing theirs off location or whatever. I've included where their first round location would be, something the NCAA would never do.

1.   Villanova, Buffalo, N.Y.
2.   Gonzaga, Sacramento, Calif.
3.   Baylor, Tulsa, Okla.
4.   Kansas, Tulsa, Okla.
5.   Louisville, Indianapolis
6.   Florida, Orlando, Fla.
7.   Kentucky, Indianapolis
8.   North Carolina, Greenville, S.C.
9.   Virginia, Greenville, S.C.
10.   Oregon, Sacramento, Calif.
11.   Arizona, Salt Lake City
12.   Florida St., Orlando, Fla.
13.   SMU, Salt Lake City
14.   Duke, Buffalo, N.Y.
15.   Purdue, Milwaukee
16.   Cincinnati, Milwaukee

[agibson]

Looks like we are about where we were a few weeks ago on http://bracketmatrix.com/. Best of the 13 seeds.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html likes our RPI to improve from its current ~75 to ~61. Even though they expect us to lose 2 of the last 5.

They make us slight dogs at Oakland. And altogether they think three of the four road games will be challenging.

They like us to climb back into the RPI top 50 if we win out the regular season.

And, of course, Seth Davis still thinks we're Almost Famous.

[VU2014]

UT Arlington as a 12 seed and we feel back to a 14 seed... 

https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/832260228334882818
https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/832261613923291136

https://twitter.com/Valpo_Hoops/status/832278407224360960
https://twitter.com/Valpo_Hoops/status/832281382646906880

http://www.midmajormadness.com/2017/2/13/14603746/mid-major-madness-power-rankings-waction-new-mexico-state-csu-bakersfield-grand-canyon

[Kyle321n]

UT Arlington as a 12 seed and we feel back to a 14 seed... 

Their Strength of Schedule is ranked at 145 and ours is 193.
Their RPI is at 41 and ours is at 70.
Their KenPom is at 70 and ours is at 96.
Hell the Sun Belt is ranked the 13th conference and HL is ranked 17th.

The only thing I can find them where they are ranked ahead of us is WarrenNolan (36 vs. 48)

[VU2014]

Their Strength of Schedule is ranked at 145 and ours is 193.
Their RPI is at 41 and ours is at 70.
Their KenPom is at 70 and ours is at 96.
Hell the Sun Belt is ranked the 13th conference and HL is ranked 17th.

The only thing I can find them where they are ranked ahead of us is WarrenNolan (36 vs. 48)

It could be the Sun Belt is a much more competitive Conference compared to the Horizon League which has some bottom feeders dragging the Conference strength down.

[Pgmado]

UT-Arlington will be a trendy Cinderella pick this season. Experienced mid-major. Three seniors and two juniors in starting lineup. Think Valpo last year.

[VU2014]

UT-Arlington will be a trendy Cinderella pick this season. Experienced mid-major. Three seniors and two juniors in starting lineup. Think Valpo last year.

I miss Vashil and Keith 

What could have last year... Although that NIT run and home games were amazing and a lot of fun. Still I'll always wonder what could have been

[Kyle321n]

I'm sure people will want to ignore this after the Oakland game, but Kyletology has us as a 14 seed vs. Duke in Greenville. Let me just state that this is the least favorable match up by location we've had this season. Let's win out, hope a couple single bid leagues put in a low RPI team and then we can move up to a 13 seed. No one on the 4 line scares me. (SMU, Purdue, Florida St. and Cincinnati). That said I don't want a Big 12 team. West Virginia looks super dangerous, especially against a turnover prone team like us


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[covufan]

I'm sure people will want to ignore this after the Oakland game, but Kyletology has us as a 14 seed vs. Duke in Greenville. Let me just state that this is the least favorable match up by location we've had this season. Let's win out, hope a couple single bid leagues put in a low RPI team and then we can move up to a 13 seed. No one on the 4 line scares me. (SMU, Purdue, Florida St. and Cincinnati). That said I don't want a Big 12 team. West Virginia looks super dangerous, especially against a turnover prone team like us


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We need CUSA, Colonial, Mountain West, Sun Belt, MAC, America East, Metro Atlantic and maybe Ivy and Ohio Valley to all go to someone less than currently in first.  I think a 13 seed is likely, and a 12 seed is possible, but not likely.

[usc4valpo]

I would really hate to see Valpo face UCLA - they looked outstanding this weekend.