Valpo Opponents' Schedule & Results 2016-17

[justducky]

ouch, ouch, ouch... pinch me... who's bright idea was it to schedule Kentucky this year?   ouch...

Worst case-- our freshman spend big minutes on the court being schooled by some of the best. After that being intimidated anywhere by anyone will be unlikely.

Best case-- we hit some shots and compete. I will define "compete" at a later date.

[FieldGoodie05]

We lost by 22 points, only thing they can do is stay top 25.  Irregardless, if we didn't get At Large last year...we aren't getting it this year.  We have years of reputation building seasons to go under this coach to gain the sort of At Large respect required.  We also have to win a game in March on the big stage a handful of times. 

Nice thoughts, and I really enjoy our effort and play this year, but zero chance for At Large.  It's tournament champs or bust.

[a3uge]

We lost by 22 points, only thing they can do is stay top 25.  Irregardless, if we didn't get At Large last year...we aren't getting it this year.  We have years of reputation building seasons to go under this coach to gain the sort of At Large respect required.  We also have to win a game in March on the big stage a handful of times. 

Nice thoughts, and I really enjoy our effort and play this year, but zero chance for At Large.  It's tournament champs or bust.

Talking in absolutes like that is silly. Valpo only has one loss, so yes, it's possible to earn an at-large this season. It has nothing to do with previous success, reputation, or past tournament wins. Mid Tennessee State out of the Sun Belt was given a bid with 5 losses only a few years ago, and they hadn't won an NCAA tournament game since the 80s. Sure, the NCAA selection committee doesn't respect mid majors (sometimes), but nobody knows what they're going to do year to year. The criteria is ever changing.

While it's very unlikely Valpo only loses 2-3 more games the rest of the year, it also hasn't happened yet, so it remains a possibility. Its  possible Valpo only loses 1 more game out of conference. Its possible Valpo only suffers 1 loss in conference, considering how poor the conference is this year. Not a "zero chance" like you say.

It's unlikely, but still possible.

[wh]

We lost by 22 points, only thing they can do is stay top 25.  Irregardless, if we didn't get At Large last year...we aren't getting it this year.  We have years of reputation building seasons to go under this coach to gain the sort of At Large respect required.  We also have to win a game in March on the big stage a handful of times. 

Nice thoughts, and I really enjoy our effort and play this year, but zero chance for At Large.  It's tournament champs or bust.

Talking in absolutes like that is silly. Valpo only has one loss, so yes, it's possible to earn an at-large this season. It has nothing to do with previous success, reputation, or past tournament wins. Mid Tennessee State out of the Sun Belt was given a bid with 5 losses only a few years ago, and they hadn't won an NCAA tournament game since the 80s. Sure, the NCAA selection committee doesn't respect mid majors (sometimes), but nobody knows what they're going to do year to year. The criteria is ever changing.

While it's very unlikely Valpo only loses 2-3 more games the rest of the year, it also hasn't happened yet, so it remains a possibility. Its  possible Valpo only loses 1 more game out of conference. Its possible Valpo only suffers 1 loss in conference, considering how poor the conference is this year. Not a "zero chance" like you say.

It's unlikely, but still possible.

I'm probably somewhere in between. I agree that we can't count out an at-large at this point. That said, the margin of error is probably smaller for the HL than any time since we joined the conference. Think back a couple of years ago. Murray State won 30 consecutive games after losing to us at the beginning of the season, then lost in the OVC tournament, and failed to earn an at-large with an RPI of something like 33.  Their fate was in fact sealed all the way back in early November. Could that happen to us?  Certainly it could. This year's HL is a dumpster fire with no quality wins - just terrible losses.

[a3uge]

We lost by 22 points, only thing they can do is stay top 25.  Irregardless, if we didn't get At Large last year...we aren't getting it this year.  We have years of reputation building seasons to go under this coach to gain the sort of At Large respect required.  We also have to win a game in March on the big stage a handful of times. 

Nice thoughts, and I really enjoy our effort and play this year, but zero chance for At Large.  It's tournament champs or bust.

Talking in absolutes like that is silly. Valpo only has one loss, so yes, it's possible to earn an at-large this season. It has nothing to do with previous success, reputation, or past tournament wins. Mid Tennessee State out of the Sun Belt was given a bid with 5 losses only a few years ago, and they hadn't won an NCAA tournament game since the 80s. Sure, the NCAA selection committee doesn't respect mid majors (sometimes), but nobody knows what they're going to do year to year. The criteria is ever changing.

While it's very unlikely Valpo only loses 2-3 more games the rest of the year, it also hasn't happened yet, so it remains a possibility. Its  possible Valpo only loses 1 more game out of conference. Its possible Valpo only suffers 1 loss in conference, considering how poor the conference is this year. Not a "zero chance" like you say.

It's unlikely, but still possible.

I'm probably somewhere in between. I agree that we can't count out an at-large at this point. That said, the margin of error is probably smaller for the HL than any time since we joined the conference. Think back a couple of years ago. Murray State won 30 consecutive games after losing to us at the beginning of the season, then lost in the OVC tournament, and failed to earn an at-large with an RPI of something like 33.  Their fate was in fact sealed all the way back in early November. Could that happen to us?  Certainly it could. This year's HL is a dumpster fire with no quality wins - just terrible losses.

I see your point, but you got a couple facts wrong in the Murray State comparison. While still impressive, they won 25 in a row, not 30. Their RPI was 63 (!), not in the 30's. They had a 239 RPI loss, and only one top 100 win (which was at home). 5 losses would probably leave Valpo out, but their resume would still be way more impressive than Murray State's 3 years ago.

I can't see Valpo winning out in conference, but if there's certainly a path.

[FieldGoodie05]

I suppose it wouldn't hurt to bring up profits.  The NCAA is looking for Return On Investment.  VU has how big of an alumni base?  Is it "Chicagos Team"?  What viewership do we bring to the table?  Is it likely Peters is going to hit The Shot 2.0?

Just some opinions, no facts. 

P.S.  Did the B1G invite Rutgers and Maryland for any other reason outside of TV viewership or recruiting territory expansion?

[justducky]

Just so we can ponder some of the alchemy employed in the early ranking systems I'll throw out a few comparative numbers.
                                       Warren Nollen          Sagarine       Pomeroy
Oakland                             136                        85               130
Vanderbilt                          110                        68               70
Alabama                            143                        73               73
BYU                                  185                        72               60
Rhode Island                       58                         50               42
Valpo                                 55                         78               74

These look to be updated for all of the Tuesday Nov 29'th action. Too early for anything to mean much but already some significant puzzlements.

[valpo64]

Wow!  I sure don't understand those rankings but I guess it is still early to get a good feel for where teams are.

[talksalot]

11/29/2016   Alabama 76  Charleston Southern 46  Tuscaloosa
11/29/2016   Ball State 92  IU-Kokomo 52  Muncie  (No Post-Valpo Burnout there...)

11/30/2016   Georgetown 96 Coppin State 44   Washington DC
11/30/2016   Indiana State 63  Northern Illinois 52 Terre Haute
11/30/2016   UIC 74  Chicago State 58 (@UIC)
11/30/2016   UC - Irvine 58 Santa Clara 55  Santa Clara  SC shot 33%, UCI shot 55% ... 15 total free throws in the game, each team hitting 4.   Different officials working those games, I guess.
11/30/2016   UNLV 89 Southern Utah 81  Cedar City, Utah
11/30/2016   Oregon 93 Western Oregon 54  Eugene

so the OOC opponents go 2-4 on the night, but the UIC win is better for us since we play them twice.

Sagarin holds steady at #78
Nolan RPI bumps us UP to #48

Kentucky's Nolan RPI is #25
Missouri State's is 88
Indiana State is 238
Santa Clara 257
Chicago State  200

[valpo4life]

Just so we can ponder some of the alchemy employed in the early ranking systems I'll throw out a few comparative numbers.
                                       Warren Nollen          Sagarine       Pomeroy
Oakland                             136                        85               130
Vanderbilt                          110                        68               70
Alabama                            143                        73               73
BYU                                  185                        72               60
Rhode Island                       58                         50               42
Valpo                                 55                         78               74

These look to be updated for all of the Tuesday Nov 29'th action. Too early for anything to mean much but already some significant puzzlements.

Part of the reason why our KenPom number seems higher than most would think is that his numbers have us ranked as the 4th luckiest team in the country.

[talksalot]

Only one Opponent OOC game Friday night... and the Tide blows a 12-point second-half lead... and loses at Texas 77-68...

12/3/2016       Kentucky   UCLA   Lexington
The 11th-ranked Bruins' hot start to the season continued with a 97-92 win at Kentucky. UCLA star Lonzo Ball had 14 points, 7 assists, 6 rebounds and this big late 3-pointer.  UCLA scores an official 1.17 points per possession. Loss sends John Calipari's record at Rupp crashing all the way down to 124-5.

Don't know if they'll retain #1 after that showing!

12/3/2016       Ball State up 7 at the half on  IUPUI... and the Jaguars came back to win it 73-62.   
12/3/2016       Chicago State beats Western Illinois 83-76 in Overtime
12/3/2016       Oakland 78 Southern Utah 68 hurts now, helps later

the Valpo RPI is 55 with these games to come...and that URI game will be big !

12/3/2016       Rhode Island  is up 4 with 11 to play @ Providence 
and you can read all about the URI LOSS here:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/gametracker/recap/NCAAB_20161203_RI@PROV

12/3/2016       Oregon  Savannah State   Eugene  5:00pm
Uh, the Ducks scored 70 points.  in the SECOND half!   128-59
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/gametracker/recap/NCAAB_20161203_SAV@OREG

Valpo's RPI falls to 59 after the URI loss

12/3/2106       USC 91 BYU 84... as the Valpo curse continues

and Valpo's RPI falls to 69 when that score is posted, three more to try to recover some of this.  Since we haven't played any of these schools, they won't impact us tonight...

12/3/2016       Missouri State   Air Force   Colorado Springs  8pm  (Most favored by 3.5, Bears down 8 with 13 to play... and the Falcons won it 83-70.

12/3/2016       Indiana State   Utah State   Logan Utah  (USU favored by 5, USU up 11 with 16 to play).  TJ Bell with a layup with 2-seconds on the clock and the Sycamores win it 62-61.

12/3/2016       San Jose State  55 Santa Clara 40 San Jose (SJSU favored by 2.5)

[historyman]

Just so we can ponder some of the alchemy employed in the early ranking systems I'll throw out a few comparative numbers.
                                       Warren Nollen          Sagarine       Pomeroy
Oakland                             136                        85               130
Vanderbilt                          110                        68               70
Alabama                            143                        73               73
BYU                                  185                        72               60
Rhode Island                       58                         50               42
Valpo                                 55                         78               74

These look to be updated for all of the Tuesday Nov 29'th action. Too early for anything to mean much but already some significant puzzlements.

Did you take an alchemy class at Valpo?

[talksalot]

Only one "Game" on Sunday for our OOC opponents...Coppin State (0-8) (RPI #333) @ Clemson (4-2) (RPI #16) 2pm.  Tigers are favored by 39.

That is one of three games where the underdog is given 0% chance of winning (NCA&T @ Notre Dame; Radford @ North Carolina)

[oklahomamick]

You guys remember that bottom feeder Loyola?

They are atop the Missouri valley now. I know it's only 8 games in but I never thought they would on the top of mvc.  Not at any point of the season. 

Our old friend wardle at .500

[talksalot]

looking at this week's matchups...

12/6/2016   Ball State    Bradley    Muncie  (BSU #301, Bradley #225)
12/6/2016   Rhode Island    Old Dominion    Kingston, RI   (Hope Rhody can snap out of it)
12/7/2016      Coppin State    Akron    Akron  (CSU still winless)
12/7/2016      Missouri State    Southeast Missouri State    Cape Girardeau (MoSt undefeated at home, winless on road)
12/7/2016   Indiana State    Butler    Terre Haute    (ISU is #193, that would be a nice win for them at home)
12/8/2016   Southern Utah    Loyola Marymount    at Los Angeles, Calif.   (SUU is winless in D1 games, MMts only win is over #308 Portland St)
12/10/2016   Southern Utah    Cal State Fullerton    at Fullerton, Calif.  (#339 vs #332... ought to be a good one!)
12/10/2016   Coppin State    Buffalo    Buffalo (Buff is 2-4, but 0-3 against T50 teams)
12/10/2016   Ball State    Eastern Kentucky    Muncie
12/10/2016   Rhode Island    Houston    Houston
12/10/2016   Santa Clara    Cal State - East Bay    Santa Clara
12/10/2016   Chicago State    Bradley    Peoria
12/10/2016   Colorado    BYU    Provo
12/11/2016   Indiana State    Western Kentucky    Terre Haute
12/11/2016   Oregon    Alabama    Eugene - push
12/11/2016   Alabama    Oregon    Eugene - push
12/11/2016   Kentucky    Hofstra    Lexington
12/11/2016   Chicago State    Saint Louis    St Louis

[talksalot]

Monday Morning quarterback Sagarins:

Valpo 80
Oregon 25
Rhode Island 47
BYU 69
Alabama 82
Ball State 201
Southern Utah 327
Coppin State 349

Yet to play:

Kentucky 6
Missouri State 107
Indiana State 120
Santa Clara  236
Chicago State 321

Conference:

Valpo 80    6-1
Oakland 81   6-1
Green Bay 158   3-4
Wright State 186   5-3
Northern Kentucky 187   4-3
UIC 231   3-4
Youngstown State 255   3-4
Milwaukee 270   2-5
Cleveland State 274   2-5
Detroit 308   0-7   (one of 25 D1 teams still winless, along with Coppin State and Southern Utah)

[oklahomamick]

I thought we would be better than 80.  But I suppose ssu and coppin weighing us down. 

I wonder just how much we drop if we lose to #7 on their court. 

Ucla messed it up.  Wish Kentucky was #1.  What is the highest rank team we have ever played? Have we ever played a #1?

[a3uge]

I thought we would be better than 80.  But I suppose ssu and coppin weighing us down. 

I wonder just how much we drop if we lose to #7 on their court. 

Ucla messed it up.  Wish Kentucky was #1.  What is the highest rank team we have ever played? Have we ever played a #1?

5 times.

12/20/2008 #1 UNC @ United Center
12/30/2007 #1 UNC
12/18/2005 #1 Duke
12/19/2004 #1 Illinois (lol)
12/13/1980 #1 DePaul at home, in the hilltop gym

3 times a #2 overall, 6 times a #3 overall

[agibson]

Have we ever played a #1?

It was recruiting boilerplate for a while that we had played the #1 team four years out of five.

When Lottich says on the coach's preview show that the players are excited to play KY I believe him.

[talksalot]

12/6/2016   Ball State  80  Bradley 63 in   Muncie 
12/6/2016   Rhode Island 51  Old Dominion 39   Kingston, RI    and ODU outscored URI 22-20 in the second half...

OOOP Texas and Utah Valley both lost... so it was not a complete sweep for us...

BUT, Valpo's RPI stays at 58; Sagarin up a few spaces to 77

Provided for entertainment purposes only...
the Nolan Predictor doubled our chances of winning tonight... from 1% to 2%; and decreased the line from 30 down to 29.  The VegasInsider line is 20, with a half-time spread of 12.5 point.  75% of the side money is going on BBN to cover.  For the year, Valpo is 3-3 against the spread.  the O/U is 155 and that is getting some action in Vegas; shifting up from 153.   They are predicting 87-67 as the Final +/- one point for either team.

684 mile round-trip.  My wife said this confirms that I'm nuts.   

[justducky]

684 mile round-trip.  My wife said this confirms that I'm nuts.   

And you have never given us reason to question her judgement.  There should be some memories created from this trip but I am not yet certain how many of them will be good!

Drive fast but safe!

[StlVUFan]

You guys remember that bottom feeder Loyola?

They are atop the Missouri valley now. I know it's only 8 games in but I never thought they would on the top of mvc.  Not at any point of the season. 

Our old friend wardle at .500

Everybody is 0-0

[wh]

You guys remember that bottom feeder Loyola?

They are atop the Missouri valley now. I know it's only 8 games in but I never thought they would on the top of mvc.  Not at any point of the season. 

Our old friend wardle at .500

Yes, the Ramblers are off to a nice start at 5-2 against D-1 competition.  That said, they're picked to finish 7th in the MVC, so time will tell.  You may recall that they began the 2010-11 season 7-0, then went 9-15 (7-11 in the HL) the rest of the way.

[talksalot]

Valpo started the day with an rpi of 58...

12/7/2016   Akron 87 Coppin State 63  @Akron  (CSU still winless)
12/7/2016   Missouri State  79  Southeast Missouri State 71 First road win for the Bears
12/7/2016   Indiana State 72  Butler 71  my two favorite teams are Valpo and whomever beats Butler.
12/7/2016   BYU 77 Weber State 66

so the combination of the BYU win and us  playing Kentucky, boosted the Rpi to 50

[oklahomamick]

Valpo started the day with an rpi of 58... 12/7/2016   Akron 87 Coppin State 63  @Akron  (CSU still winless) 12/7/2016   Missouri State  79  Southeast Missouri State 71 First road win for the Bears 12/7/2016   Indiana State 72  Butler 71  my two favorite teams are Valpo and whomever beats Butler. 12/7/2016   BYU 77 Weber State 66 so the combination of the BYU win and us  playing Kentucky, boosted the Rpi to 50

Disappointed that Indiana St. can get Butler at home and we can't.