NCAA College Basketball Talk

[VUGrad1314]

If this turns out to be true I would have lost a lot of money betting against Green Bay dropping out of D1 before a school like Chicago State. I doubt Milwaukee follows but if it can happen to them it can happen to any school and it has me worried about us and other MVC schools. Hopefully all D1 programs can survive this and stay where they are.

[may know]

I heard something really crazy happened at Chicago St's Board of Trustees Meeting today, but am still piecing it together. If anyone finds more information, post it!

[VUGrad1314]

Word is they are either considering (or have decided to) cut baseball which drops them under the two men's team sports requirement to remain at D1. Perhaps they will start a new cheaper program to stay afloat but that is a really bad sign.

As for Green Bay word is that they are in fact staying D1 according to their chancellor. That makes this move to fire that coach even stranger.

[VUGrad1314]

MWC going to 20 conference games in two years... And SDSU is not happy about it...

I really think the AAC's dream of a western expansion is going to come to fruition.

SDSU doesn't like the direction they're taking in basketball...

Boise State's just pissed at the conference in general...

Air Force's coach questions whether the MWC is the best home for their football program in terms of exposure and sounds like he would prefer eastern kick times to the late times out west.

All three of these schools to one degree or another would interest the AAC and the WCC would probably take all of them for Olympic sports if the AAC doesn't want them as full members.

If the AAC does not take them as full members they add some combination of VCU Dayton and SLU and decimate the A10.

The Valley should make a move and get whatever strong programs they can to come aboard ASAP.

Even if it won't help us get at large bids we should make our conference as strong as possible to make the conference season as compelling as possible and prepare our champion as well as possible for the tournament. We should strive to be the true best of the rest.

[VUGrad1314]

This is interesting

https://www.si.com/college/2020/05/15/ncaa-college-football-return-campus-coronavirus

[VUGrad1314]

According to ESPN the TVI (Team Value Index) that is critical to the NET ratings is most comparable to Strength of Record (SOR). So if we want to assess a team's at large chances we should look at their SOR. The best thing teams can do to make this metric is to win and win convincingly while challenging themselves whenever they can it would appear. I hope all MVC teams are doing that and right now the early returns look pretty promising. Most schedules look to be shaping up very well.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/29165019/bracketology-changed-ncaa-net-rankings-tool

[VUGrad1314]

And yet if this were UT-Austin it would be crickets from the NCAA...

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/29200368/stephen-f-austin-facing-ncaa-penalties-lack-institutional-control

[VUGrad1314]

Translation: probably not good for us...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/

[usc4valpo]

It is amazing how accurate Jerry Tarkanian was about the NCAA and how it will continue to punish Cleveland State.

[wh]

"Winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin will no longer be components in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) used to judge Division I basketball teams, the NCAA announced Monday."

"The NET will now use just two factors in its evaluation: team value index (TVI) and adjusted net efficiency rating. Team value index is "a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home," while adjusted net efficiency rating accounts for "strength of opponent and location across all games played."

Of the 5 major NET components it appears that they eliminated the only 3 that don't provide the "bigs" with a built-in advantage - winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin.

So, is there an agenda here, or are we expected to believe this is just about "simplification." Only 2 years ago the NET was promoted as the end-all—be-all statistical formulation devised by the gurus of college basketball ranking systems. Then out of the blue it's gutted. So, are we expected to believe these people weren't smart enough to recognize "needless duplication" in their formula?  I don't think so.

[EddieCabot]

"Winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin will no longer be components in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) used to judge Division I basketball teams, the NCAA announced Monday."

"The NET will now use just two factors in its evaluation: team value index (TVI) and adjusted net efficiency rating. Team value index is "a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home," while adjusted net efficiency rating accounts for "strength of opponent and location across all games played."

Of the 5 major NET components it appears that they eliminated the only 3 that don't provide the "bigs" with a built-in advantage - winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin.

So, is there an agenda here, or are we expected to believe this is just about "simplification." Only 2 years ago the NET was promoted as the end-all—be-all statistical formulation devised by the gurus of college basketball ranking systems. Then out of the blue it's gutted. So, are we expected to believe these people weren't smart enough to recognize "needless duplication" in their formula?  I don't think so.

Well stated.  Is it a coincidence the formula is being changed the year after Mark LaBarbera stated on Union Street Hoops that he had figured out the system (with the help of Wofford)?  I don't think so. 

[VUGrad1314]

UAB with a nice scheduling get.

https://twitter.com/LucasEverett13/status/1263539429886525440

[VUGrad1314]

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1263197038780522496



The MVC needs to do something soon if it wants to protect its status as a potential multibid league. We either:

1. Need to get really aggressive and creative with the OOC scheduling begging borrowing and stealing for any quality games we can get or

2. Expand the conference with as many quality programs as we can get and garner league strength that way. Or

3. Some combination of both

I don't care which one they ultimately decide to do but doing nothing is not and cannot be an option.

[VUGrad1314]

No transfer exemption...Yet...

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1263254524401238019

[VUGrad1314]

"Winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin will no longer be components in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) used to judge Division I basketball teams, the NCAA announced Monday." "The NET will now use just two factors in its evaluation: team value index (TVI) and adjusted net efficiency rating. Team value index is "a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home," while adjusted net efficiency rating accounts for "strength of opponent and location across all games played." Of the 5 major NET components it appears that they eliminated the only 3 that don't provide the "bigs" with a built-in advantage - winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. So, is there an agenda here, or are we expected to believe this is just about "simplification." Only 2 years ago the NET was promoted as the end-all—be-all statistical formulation devised by the gurus of college basketball ranking systems. Then out of the blue it's gutted. So, are we expected to believe these people weren't smart enough to recognize "needless duplication" in their formula?  I don't think so.

Well stated.  Is it a coincidence the formula is being changed the year after Mark LaBarbera stated on Union Street Hoops that he had figured out the system (with the help of Wofford)?  I don't think so.

Had Wofford really figured out the NET? Are we absolutely sure of that? Keep in mind the SOCON is a good conference similar in strength to the MVC. Were they in for sure regardless of their conference tournament results that year they were really good? We don't know and we never will. It's dangerous I think to think of Wofford the year before last as any kind of model for NET success as a mid major. 

[VUGrad1314]

So... when do Kentucky Louisville North Carolina Duke USC Auburn Kansas LSU Arizona and all these other programs guilty of serious violations recently serve their postseason bans?  Hello? NCAA? Anyone? Bueller?

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2020/5/19/21263878/stephen-f-austin-sfa-apr-ban-ncaa-mens-basketball-2021-22

[VUGrad1314]

I know this is about the A10 and the AAC but this point is important for the MVC as well... This is why I'm pro expansion for the right programs and also why I think we should enter into as many challenges as possible to get quality teams on the schedule.

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1264563148046118912

[VUGrad1314]

Not sure if this is about basketball as well but this makes a lot of sense for everyone involved. Perhaps it could lead to an east-west shuffle up for the two conferences to tighten geographic footprint and thereby improve everyone's lot by saving them money to invest in other areas.

https://krod.com/conference-usa-and-sun-belt-could-combine-in-pandemic-recovery/

[usc4valpo]

13-14, USC get hammered terribly and in my opinion unfairly from the NCAA. They put football back 10 years with the sanctions. What Reggie Bush and the family did was wrong, but the punishment was worse than the violation.
On the positive end, I think the NCAA is gradually going on a journey nonexistence, which will be good.

[valpo64]

USC's program has been questioned off and on for a for a good number of years .  Maybe the NCAA in their "infinite wisdom"  felt it had enough of it.  After all, who can figure out the NCAA anyway?

[usc4valpo]

Part of the problem In the past 50 years is that USCs administration has been very wimpy on fighting the NCAA and has taken a Neville Chamberlain approach. What happen with the Bush incident was wrong but the  punishment was close to the death penalty.

Again, I think the NCAA is dissolving, which is probably good. When the president is making seven figures in a non profit organization promoting the student athlete, something is wrong.

BTW, what is happening to SFA is a complete joke.

[VUGrad1314]

I know the NCAA sucks in so many ways because it cannot (or will not) discipline all of its schools fairly and its enforcement practices are often lacking and inconsistent but what would happen to schools like ours and competition if it went away? Would there be separate leagues and divisions? Would we still get to play P5 competition? Or would we compete for championships at our own level?

[vu84v2]

There is a model for what college basketball and other sports would look like if the NCAA went away....FBS/FCS. The Power 5 conferences and the Big East would structure it so that only their schools would have any reasonable chance at National Championships, allowing just enough room for participation from the other conferences to avoid being found in violation of antitrust laws. If you are a Valpo fan, you do not want the NCAA to go away.

[usc4valpo]

As a proud Valparaiso and USC alum, I am mixed about this. I still think the NCAA needs an enema.

[valpo64]

Even if they got an enema, they would only burp and they still would be full of it.