NCAA College Basketball Talk

[bbtds]

Not if you schedule smartly and strategically for where your team is at (and you can do that without excessively indulging in creampuffs. There is NO REASON for ANY MVC team to play a bunch of Q4 games. To the best of our ability Q3 and above with no non-D1s should be the mandate. That shouldn't result in too many additional losses. I would never advocate for any MVC team to take multiple buy games against blue bloods. That's neither smart nor strategic.

Why not? We have some really good athletic facilities in Oakland County. The other MVC teams have really good basketball facilities.

Do you?

[valpopal]

Here is a wake-up call to reality. Try to wrap your head around these numbers when considering what the mid-major schools are facing when trying to compete financially with top-tier universities, whether to upgrade facilities, recruit student-athletes, add staff, or promote programs. The total current endowment for Valparaiso University is $235 million. Today, the news reports that Michigan State University has agreed to pay more than twice that amount, a $500 million settlement, in its sports medicine sex case. MSU can afford this and move forward because they have an endowment of nearly $3 billion, which nevertheless pales in comparison to rival University of Michigan, which has an endowment of $11 billion.

[VUGrad1314]

And yet they manipulate the selection criteria to screw teams in smaller conferences out of what would be at most a couple hundred thousand dollars a year most years. That's pathetically petty.

[VULB#62]

......... The total current endowment for Valparaiso University is $235 million. Today, the news reports that Michigan State University has agreed to pay more than twice that amount, a $500 million settlement, in its sports medicine sex case. MSU can afford this and move forward because they have an endowment of nearly $3 billion, which nevertheless pales in comparison to rival University of Michigan, which has an endowment of $11 billion.

...... which nevertheless pales in comparison to Harvard University, which has an endowment of $30+ billion. But, alas,  they are not top tier BB. 

[wh]

Ignorant questions for tbe guys on the board who are clued in and really, really BB super-savy:  Why is the A-10 always a multi-bid league and the MVC is not?  Why is the WCC always a multi-bid conference and the MVC is not? The top two in each of those conferences would be sucking wind playing in the MVC.

The MVC typically isn't as good of a conference as the A10, which makes sense because the top top teams have bigger budgets. The bigger budgets allow them to play 60% of their ooc games at home, while the MVC only plays around 40% at home. This past year the MVC was a great conference, but everyone played each other evenly, so everyone's RPIs hovered around 100, so no team could get the covetted Top 50 Winz that the selection committee seems to only care about.

Budgets help but using that as the main reason is a cop-out. If I remember correctly Mark Adams tracked some 70 victories by smaller budget schools over big budget foes many of which came from our own MVC. You've got to schedule well and win to get in. The doorway through which mid majors must walk to get into the tournament is extremely narrow. Eat one too many cupcakes and you'll be too fat to get through. As your waistline expands your path gets narrower through an ever-shrinking margin for error which is already razor thin outside the P5\BE.

Scheduling harder means more losses for everyone. For example, if Evansville schedules road games vs Kentucky, Kansas, and North Carolina instead of home games vs Canisius, Binghamton, and Arkansas State, they'll be 0-3 in those games vs 3-0, which contributes negatively to the rest of the conference. The top teams should have at-large caliber schedules, but it's counterproductive for the middle and bottom half of the league to schedule more losses.

If you need a few good examples how scheduling changed the dynamic of a conference, look at the Horizon vs the MAC. The Horizon consistently had a top 10 OOC SOS while the MAC was usually bottom 3. The MAC's easier scheduling has allowed their teams to get better seeds than the Horizon's teams without actually being better or having a better resume.

You are a man among boys when it comes to understanding scheduling dynamics and conference positioning.

[VUGrad1314]

Except that his example while true is outdated and ill-suited for today's climate. RPI has fallen out of favor and been replaced to a large degree  by other metrics such as KenPom. At a minimum it is clear that SOS has replaced RPI as a defining metric when evaluating teams. Virtually every argument we hear for P5 teams on the bubble and against mids is SOS based. So while it's great to have those gaudy RPIs if those wins don't have teeth they mean nothing. That's how a team like St Mary's can win 27 28 games and have an RPI between 40-50 and still miss the tournament. It's also how Belmont and Evansville can win 23-25 games and get no NIT bid. The A10 showed us this year what we need to do. Anything else is using yesterday's weapons technology to fight today's wars. That's why there hasn't been a legitimate bubble team from the MAC in years because the model  described in that post and held to as the way forward for mid majors doesn't work anymore. Remember RPI is the code the MVC cracked to get 7 bids in two years in the mid 2000s which is a major reason why we have what we have today. The conference and indeed mid majors by and large including their fans have struggled to adapt which is why we are where we are. SOS is what matters and there are ways to do that strategically without getting smashed in buy games by elite P5 schools.

[wh]

I beg to differ '13. SOS hasn't replaced RPI; instead, it has become a significant secondary factor. Had SOS replaced RPI, Oakland would have been a shoe-in at-large every year it prostituted itself with an OOC schedule full of pay games against high majors it couldn't possibly beat. The key for mid-majors maximizing their potential in today's world is to not over or under schedule relative to your own team's ability.  Accordingly, if the best and worst teams in your conference have the same OOC SOS, either one over scheduled or the other underscheduled, and your conference will pay a price for it on Selection Sunday. Exactly what a3uge said.

[VUGrad1314]

So basically for the MVC Illinois State Loyola and SIU should schedule as well as they can with an assist from Bradley UNI Missouri State and us who put together solid but not back breaking schedules while Indiana State Drake and Evansville just try to gobble up as many wins as they can?

[78crusader]

I believe the endowment when I entered VU in the fall of 1974 was $8 million (I have heard that the endowment in 1968 was $0.)  The first $1 million gift in university history was made in either 1977 or 1978. 

Paul

[wh]

So basically for the MVC Illinois State Loyola and SIU should schedule as well as they can with an assist from Bradley UNI Missouri State and us who put together solid but not back breaking schedules while Indiana State Drake and Evansville just try to gobble up as many wins as they can?

Generally, that's it. That, and a conference-wide prohibition against scheduling teams with a 200 or higher RPI.  Those are both RPI and SOS killers.

[justducky]

So basically for the MVC Illinois State Loyola and SIU should schedule as well as they can with an assist from Bradley UNI Missouri State and us who put together solid but not back breaking schedules while Indiana State Drake and Evansville just try to gobble up as many wins as they can?

Generally, that's it. That, and a conference-wide prohibition against scheduling teams with a 200 or higher RPI.  Those are both RPI and SOS killers.

Realistically an arbitrary 200 or better guideline would be difficult to follow but something is needed. Many of the decent OOC Tournaments also come saddled with some lower level home game RPI baggage.

As for the VUGrad1314 quote, I would say that Indiana St should schedule with the mid tier and not with the rebuilding programs for 18-19.

[a3uge]

Except that his example while true is outdated and ill-suited for today's climate. RPI has fallen out of favor and been replaced to a large degree  by other metrics such as KenPom. At a minimum it is clear that SOS has replaced RPI as a defining metric when evaluating teams. Virtually every argument we hear for P5 teams on the bubble and against mids is SOS based. So while it's great to have those gaudy RPIs if those wins don't have teeth they mean nothing. That's how a team like St Mary's can win 27 28 games and have an RPI between 40-50 and still miss the tournament. It's also how Belmont and Evansville can win 23-25 games and get no NIT bid. The A10 showed us this year what we need to do. Anything else is using yesterday's weapons technology to fight today's wars. That's why there hasn't been a legitimate bubble team from the MAC in years because the model  described in that post and held to as the way forward for mid majors doesn't work anymore. Remember RPI is the code the MVC cracked to get 7 bids in two years in the mid 2000s which is a major reason why we have what we have today. The conference and indeed mid majors by and large including their fans have struggled to adapt which is why we are where we are. SOS is what matters and there are ways to do that strategically without getting smashed in buy games by elite P5 schools.

Except that his example while true is outdated and ill-suited for today's climate. RPI has fallen out of favor and been replaced to a large degree  by other metrics such as KenPom. At a minimum it is clear that SOS has replaced RPI as a defining metric when evaluating teams. Virtually every argument we hear for P5 teams on the bubble and against mids is SOS based. So while it's great to have those gaudy RPIs if those wins don't have teeth they mean nothing. That's how a team like St Mary's can win 27 28 games and have an RPI between 40-50 and still miss the tournament. It's also how Belmont and Evansville can win 23-25 games and get no NIT bid. The A10 showed us this year what we need to do. Anything else is using yesterday's weapons technology to fight today's wars. That's why there hasn't been a legitimate bubble team from the MAC in years because the model  described in that post and held to as the way forward for mid majors doesn't work anymore. Remember RPI is the code the MVC cracked to get 7 bids in two years in the mid 2000s which is a major reason why we have what we have today. The conference and indeed mid majors by and large including their fans have struggled to adapt which is why we are where we are. SOS is what matters and there are ways to do that strategically without getting smashed in buy games by elite P5 schools.

I think you may have missed my point a bit. I wasn't referring to at-large callivar teams like VCU, Rhode Island, Dayton, or St. Mary's. Those are all decent programs, and should put together hard schedules. All I'm saying is that it would be best for the conference if teams that aren't close to an at-large (which might be everyone next year) to schedule a bit easier.

While it's true RPI is not used when selecting at large teams, it's still the primary tool in seeding mid majors (the bottom of the field). The committee doesn't look at kpom; nor should it, since kpom is meant to be a predictive algorithm.  I do not agree that the committee leans heavily on SOS, but even if it did, overall SOS improves as your conferences W/L percentage improves. For example, if Evansville played 10 really tough OOC games and lost 7 of them, Evansville's SOS would improve, but Valpo's would decrease, because their opponent would have a lower W/L record.

[VUGrad1314]

I get your point a bit better now but I strongly disagree with your assertion that the MVC lacks at large contenders. I think the conference has a chance to be even better than it was last year. I don't see Loyola getting significantly worse Illinois State looks really strong SIU could make some real noise if healthy Bradley will be good Missouri State Valpo and UNI should be solid Indiana State is showing real promise I don't see Evansville or Drake totally bottoming out either. I think from what I have seen of MVC teams schedules most teams are doing a pretty solid job. Some could use a little work but I haven't seen anything egregious yet.

[bigmosmithfan1]

Generally, that's it. That, and a conference-wide prohibition against scheduling teams with a 200 or higher RPI.  Those are both RPI and SOS killers.

I agree with something like this, but it needs to be based off a rolling 3-or-5-year average, otherwise you're spending money buying out of contracts if an opponent has an unexpected bad year in the middle of a home-and-home deal. Like if a team's been 250+ for 4 of the past 5 years, nope. If a team has been 140-ish most years but dropped to 210 last year due to a rash of injuries, you don't want to rule them out.

[VUGrad1314]

http://www.valleyhoopsinsider.com/increased-talent-in-the-mvc/

[VU2014]

So much irony. What a complete joke.

https://twitter.com/ByBerkowitz/status/999349521112059904

[may know]

It's June and Detroit still doesn't have a coach. Maybe they were banking on getting money from the HL suing Valpo to pay for one.

[IrishDawg]

It's June and Detroit still doesn't have a coach. Maybe they were banking on getting money from the HL suing Valpo to pay for one.

I feel bad for their fans.  I'm not sure how a coaching search takes more than 2 months at this point, but I believe they and Chicago State are the only 2 Division 1 programs without a coaching staff in place right now.  Considering where they're at, it's a long road back to relevance in the Horizon League.

[VU2014]

They're AD apparently has no clue what he's doing. He was paying Bacari $450k per year with zero head coaching experience and then forced him to hire Jermaine Jackson as an assistant coach who completely undermined Bacari's credibility with the team. There was all kinds of infighting and power struggle in that program.

Detroit Mercy athletics have been a mess for quite a few years now. I saw someone on twitter sarcastically ask to bring back the former AD that was shacking up with one of the assistant basketball coaches lol. Things really are a mess there and it does suck for the fans. They apparently only drew 200 fans to one of their home games last season.

[VUGrad1314]

And to think that that program tripped up a very good Valpo team that was on its way to the tournament is a little galling.

[may know]

https://twitter.com/GoodmanESPN/status/1004153290299527168?s=20

Detroit with a great hire. Davis' son is a 3-star recruit who recently backed out of Houston. Apparently Davis has a pair of decent JuCo's considering coming with.

Maybe Detroit will reunite with Valpo one day if Davis brings them glory days.

[VUGrad1314]

This is huge for UDM and for the HL. The HL needs a strong Detroit to stop their free-fall. This could also be big for MVC Expansion by and large. I genuinely believe that Wright State and Northern Kentucky are potentially viable candidates for expansion (perhaps Oakland could be in play if Detroit becomes a strong companion add) but were hurt by the low quality of play in the HL. If Detroit can make a stronger HL the MVC might feel better about going with an HL program as the companion add for Murray State assuming we can't get one or more of Belmont Dayton or SLU.

[IrishDawg]

Davis is definitely a best-case scenario for Detroit right now, and is a good, solid coach.

He actually had a surprising number of kids from outside of Texas and the south in general while at Texas Southern.  My only concern if I had one at all is what level of kid is he going to be able to recruit to Detroit.  When you've got the city of Houston as the backdrop, kids are going to be willing to travel.  When it's Detroit, it's harder.

Great news for Titans fans, but as for making plans for the MVC to come in and pluck them from the Horizon, I'd definitely be in a wait and see mode.

[wh]

A couple of things I find troubling about Detroit's search for a head coach -

It took them 10 weeks to fill their head coaching vacancy, which means their program sat idle for 2 critical recruiting months - April and May. Clearly, that is an unforced error.

On April 24th Tony Paul of the Detroit News tweeted that Detroit was chasing Rick Pitino. To think that a Catholic university would be trying to woo a fraud and cheat of Pitino's magnitude speaks volumes about institutional character, and more specifically that of their AD. It might also help explain why it took them so long to get a head coach.

[VUGrad1314]

Desperation after decades of being a generally underwhelming to bad program can cause people to look in places they otherwise wouldn't for answers.