Per Mark Adams: Valpo likely to replace Wichita St as 10th (only new) MVC member

[RacerJoeD]

I actually thought something related but a little different. I thought it was a test to see if the admins at Valpo could be leak proof.


No clue if it's true, but it's funny how similar the thoughts are.

[VU2014]

I say invite both Valpo and Murray State and call it a day. Both are great

I actually thought something related but a little different. I thought it was a test to see if the admins at Valpo could be leak proof.

No clue if it's true, but it's funny how similar the thoughts are.

Paul just put this out there. Quick little 2 minute bumper audio. Apparently no one at Valpo knows what the MVC is thinking seems like a big mystery to everyone. No one at Valpo seems to be talking.

https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/859587454680125440

[oklahomamick]

Those are the same words we heard for several days regarding Bryce going to Vandy.  No one was talking back then and no one is talking now. 

[wh]

Video

http://www.wpsdlocal6.com/story/35325471/murray-state-ad-mvc-has-not-made-yet-made-expansion-decision

[valpo tundra]

It is quite possible that the MVC has extended an invite to Valpo yesterday (5/2) and a final decision will be voted on this Friday or next Monday. Obviously, a fair amount of upgrades that have been requested by the league will have to be discussed by Valpo higherups. While this entire possibility to change conferences is solely based on men's basketball, I wish other sports would be able to weigh in on the decision behind the scenes.

[wh]

It is quite possible that the MVC has extended an invite to Valpo yesterday (5/2) and a final decision will be voted on this Friday or next Monday. Obviously, a fair amount of upgrades that have been requested by the league will have to be discussed by Valpo higherups. While this entire possibility to change conferences is solely based on men's basketball, I wish other sports would be able to weigh in on the decision behind the scenes.

This could be the most revealing post since this whole discussion began. Stated as fact:

• ...a fair amount of upgrades that have been requested by the league
• ...I wish other sports would be able to weigh in (point being that Olympic sports coaches were not asked about their opinions re. conference change
• ...quite possible that the MVC extended an invite to Valpo yesterday (5/2).  (Pinpoints a specific date)

Most important comment - the MVC has specified improvements it wants made. It's decision time. Commit the resources necessary to take the next step, or fall behind. There is no such thing as status quo.

Tundra - I don't know who you are, but you know something, don't you?

[bbtds]

Channel 12 in Cape Girardeau (KFVS-CBS) sure is getting themselves into some hot water with the Murray State AD.

Allen Ward‏
@MurrayStateAD

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Allen Ward Retweeted Jeff Bidwell
The KFVS report is not accurate. Murray State University officials have NOT confirmed those rumors! The discussion & vote has not occurred.

Channel 6 in Paducah--transmitter in Monkey's Eyebrow, KY (WPSD-NBC) is trying to be neutral.

Channel 3 with studios between Carbondale and Marion (in Carterville) and their transmitter in Harrisburg, IL (WSIL-ABC) doesn't seem to have anything on Murray State. Channel 3 covers SIU pretty extensively and you would think they would care some about MVC expansion.

http://www.wsiltv.com/category/301475/sports

[oklahomamick]

It is quite possible that the MVC has extended an invite to Valpo yesterday (5/2) and a final decision will be voted on this Friday or next Monday. Obviously, a fair amount of upgrades that have been requested by the league will have to be discussed by Valpo higherups. While this entire possibility to change conferences is solely based on men's basketball, I wish other sports would be able to weigh in on the decision behind the scenes.

This could be the most revealing post since this whole discussion began. Stated as fact: • ...a fair amount of upgrades that have been requested by the league • ...I wish other sports would be able to weigh in (point being that Olympic sports coaches were not asked about their opinions re. conference change • ...quite possible that the MVC extended an invite to Valpo yesterday (5/2).  (Pinpoints a specific date) Most important comment - the MVC has specified improvements it wants made. It's decision time. Commit the resources necessary to take the next step, or fall behind. There is no such thing as status quo. Tundra - I don't know who you are, but you know something, don't you?

Are these only request or mandated? 

[VU2014]

Murray State AD day 2:
https://twitter.com/MurrayStateAD/status/859773375723565056

[crusaderjoe]

It is quite possible that the MVC has extended an invite to Valpo yesterday (5/2) and a final decision will be voted on this Friday or next Monday. Obviously, a fair amount of upgrades that have been requested by the league will have to be discussed by Valpo higherups. While this entire possibility to change conferences is solely based on men's basketball, I wish other sports would be able to weigh in on the decision behind the scenes.

This could be the most revealing post since this whole discussion began. Stated as fact:

• ...a fair amount of upgrades that have been requested by the league
• ...I wish other sports would be able to weigh in (point being that Olympic sports coaches were not asked about their opinions re. conference change
• ...quite possible that the MVC extended an invite to Valpo yesterday (5/2).  (Pinpoints a specific date)

Most important comment - the MVC has specified improvements it wants made. It's decision time. Commit the resources necessary to take the next step, or fall behind. There is no such thing as status quo.

Tundra - I don't know who you are, but you know something, don't you?

Agreed, 100%.

Does Mark Adams know any of this?  Because at some point a move to the MVC becomes economically untenable. The only question is what that dollar amount threshold is to make it untenable. If an entrance fee, an exit fee, and "a fair amount of upgrades" is part of the move, I would be really curious to know what dollar amount threshold (either realized or projected) it would take for the Administration to say "no thanks...this move makes no economic sense, and we're fine in the HL." 

I guess that's the million, or millions of dollars question, if that post was accurate.

[FWalum]

It is quite possible that the MVC has extended an invite to Valpo yesterday (5/2) and a final decision will be voted on this Friday or next Monday. Obviously, a fair amount of upgrades that have been requested by the league will have to be discussed by Valpo higherups. While this entire possibility to change conferences is solely based on men's basketball, I wish other sports would be able to weigh in on the decision behind the scenes.

Unless this person is an insider, breaking the cone of silence (which no one else at any of the schools seems to have done), every word of this is speculation and opinion. I am not reading too much into this.... that's my opinion, speculation, guess ..... whatever  damn I wish this was over!

[FWalum]

https://twitter.com/EnthusiAdams/status/859433781803069440

If this is really what is happening then to me the move to the MVC becomes much less inviting.  My main reason for wanting the move is to get into a conference that has the potential to be a multi-bid league, is proactive in achieving that goal and building a strong mid-major conference.  If the invite is to only one school then the presidents and commissioner are only reacting to the WSU loss and not thinking big picture.  In other words, this is just a rehash of what we currently have. There are other reasons this move makes sense, more traditional rivalries, like-minded private schools, a slightly higher profile conference and a better tournament atmosphere.  I am not sure that the additional expense of moving to a weakened MVC would outweigh some of the issues discussed earlier by Paul Oren.

[RacerJoeD]

I have said it here and over at the Murray State board, but it bears repeating;

If the MVC adds either Valpo or Murray, but not both, it has failed.

[FWalum]

Murray State AD day 2:
https://twitter.com/MurrayStateAD/status/859773375723565056
https://twitter.com/Jim_Connell_NL/status/859552470225367042

If I was this Jim Connell guy I think I might delete that tweet. I doubt that the Murray AD would deliberately make himself look stupid. Journalism in the digital age sure is "interesting" 

[M]

Why would he tweet about an unsubstantiated report??  I must be confused with what that means....

[covufan]

Why would he tweet about an unsubstantiated report??  I must be confused with what that means....

Because if you don't tweet it first, you become 'old' news if and when the truth is known. 

[FWalum]

I have said it here and over at the Murray State board, but it bears repeating;

If the MVC adds either Valpo or Murray, but not both, it has failed.

I agree, I don't understand what they feel the unwarranted risks might be to building an 11 or 12 team league that would potentially just maintain their previous status.  Are they afraid of throwing some of the other leagues into turmoil?? Would there be a potential backlash?? Perhaps there are contractual issues that could cause potential problems?? Are they afraid that more teams mean smaller shares??? The perception and I would think revenue potential of the MVC would definitely take a huge hit if only one team is added. 

[wh]

I have said it here and over at the Murray State board, but it bears repeating;

If the MVC adds either Valpo or Murray, but not both, it has failed.

I agree, I don't understand what they feel the unwarranted risks might be to building an 11 or 12 team league that would potentially just maintain their previous status.  Are they afraid of throwing some of the other leagues into turmoil?? Would there be a potential backlash?? Perhaps there are contractual issues that could cause potential problems?? Are they afraid that more teams mean smaller shares??? The perception and I would think revenue potential of the MVC would definitely take a huge hit if only one team is added. 

I completely agree.  Four years ago the MVC "brain-trust" pulled one of the biggest blunders in NCAA history when they replaced 1 of the most dominant mid-major programs in the nation with another mid-major conference's 2nd worst program.  Now they want to replace their 1 remaining mid-major power with just Valpo, or just Murray State?  These people are hapless fools. Both Valpo and Murray State should tell the MVC to GFY, and sit back and watch them implode after they add the Horizon League's current dumpster fire - Milwaukee. That would be another addition by subtraction for the HL, and the end of the MVC as we know it.   

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/EnthusiAdams/status/859799894449688578

[valpo4life]

Anyone else get the sense that Valpo officials are sitting in a quiet confidence right now while Murray St. AD and President seem anxious and nervous with their tweets? Granted I would also be upset if someone reported a supposedly false story about my school. But we are getting absolutely nothing out of ML while their AD is tweeting back to fans of other MVC schools? Just seems odd to me.

[Valpo49]

So Mark Adams is standing by a tweet which may or may not be true.  It's almost like his tweet was of absolutely no value.  Thanks for nothing there Mark.

[Dave_2010]

Anyone else get the sense that Valpo officials are sitting in a quiet confidence right now while Murray St. AD and President seem anxious and nervous with their tweets? Granted I would also be upset if someone reported a supposedly false story about my school. But we are getting absolutely nothing out of ML while their AD is tweeting back to fans of other MVC schools? Just seems odd to me.

There is absolutely no need for ML and Valpo to manage messages right now...when things are breaking your way, you just sit tight and let them unfold. The desperate responses coming out of Murray AD aren't a good look. That being said, the meltdown (and PantherU's) have been entertaining.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bbtds]

If this is really what is happening then to me the move to the MVC becomes much less inviting.  My main reason for wanting the move is to get into a conference that has the potential to be a multi-bid league, is proactive in achieving that goal and building a strong mid-major conference.  If the invite is to only one school then the presidents and commissioner are only reacting to the WSU loss and not thinking big picture.  In other words, this is just a rehash of what we currently have. There are other reasons this move makes sense, more traditional rivalries, like-minded private schools, a slightly higher profile conference and a better tournament atmosphere.  I am not sure that the additional expense of moving to a weakened MVC would outweigh some of the issues discussed earlier by Paul Oren.

What if they plan to add Murray State or another school for the 18-19 season?

[wh]

I have said it here and over at the Murray State board, but it bears repeating;

If the MVC adds either Valpo or Murray, but not both, it has failed.

I agree, I don't understand what they feel the unwarranted risks might be to building an 11 or 12 team league that would potentially just maintain their previous status.  Are they afraid of throwing some of the other leagues into turmoil?? Would there be a potential backlash?? Perhaps there are contractual issues that could cause potential problems?? Are they afraid that more teams mean smaller shares??? The perception and I would think revenue potential of the MVC would definitely take a huge hit if only one team is added. 

I completely agree.  Four years ago the MVC "brain-trust" pulled one of the biggest blunders in NCAA history when they replaced 1 of the most dominant mid-major programs in the nation with another mid-major conference's 2nd worst program.  Now they want to replace their 1 remaining mid-major power with just Valpo, or just Murray State?  These people are hapless fools. Both Valpo and Murray State should tell the MVC to GFY, and sit back and watch them implode after they add the Horizon League's current dumpster fire - Milwaukee. That would be another addition by subtraction for the HL, and the end of the MVC as we know it.   

By the way, the fact that the MVC is even considering Milwaukee as a 3rd option is laughable and shows that they learned absolutely nothing from the Loyola debacle.  In addition to having a gawd-awful men's basketball program for the past several years, Milwaukee is easily the most dysfunctional program in the HL.  They've gone through more athletic directors in a short time than probably any university in the country and their current AD is divisive and completely in over her head. They are a mere shadow of their former selves and there is nothing to warrant the optimistic rhetoric coming from Jimmy and others up there.  Any fan of any failed program anywhere can spin up a tale that their program is on the rise. It's totally meaningless. They are where they are for a reason, and slick talking rhetoric isn't going to change anything. As to the MVC buying into the Milwaukee narrative, it goes to show how clueless they really are.

You want to see something exciting - add Murray State, Valpo and Oakland. Now you have a change that's worth something.         

[IrishDawg]

I agree, I don't understand what they feel the unwarranted risks might be to building an 11 or 12 team league that would potentially just maintain their previous status.  Are they afraid of throwing some of the other leagues into turmoil?? Would there be a potential backlash?? Perhaps there are contractual issues that could cause potential problems?? Are they afraid that more teams mean smaller shares??? The perception and I would think revenue potential of the MVC would definitely take a huge hit if only one team is added. 

I can't get inside their heads, but the biggest concern almost has to be NCAA tournament share revenue and their fear that adding 2 or 3 schools right now is going to dilute an ever-shrinking pool of tournament shares for leagues that don't consistently see 3 or more of their teams go to the tournament each year.  Looking over the history of Kenpom (16 seasons, and it's easy to gather historical data), I went through and totaled up the number of bids and tourney records the remaining MVC teams had and compared Valpo, Murray and UWM (since UNO's story is a short one with no NCAA tournament bids).  Over that 16 year stretch, all 3 teams are somewhat comparable.  Murray has the edge in bids (5 vs. 4 for UWM and Valpo), UWM has the best tourney record (3-4 vs. 2-5 for MSU and 0-4 for Valpo), and Murray State has the best average Kenpom rating over that time (123 vs. 126 for Valpo and 144 for UWM). 

If you knock that down to the last 5 years though, Valpo is by far the best option, with an average rating of 88, while Murray comes in at 136 and UWM is at 211.  The overall problem though, is that of the remaining teams in the MVC, only 2 have a better NCAA tourney and bid track record (SIU and UNI), and UNI is the only school in the league that has been consistently good, with an average 16 season rating of 89.5, and in the past 5 years it's been 83.2.  The problem is that to consistently get multiple bids as the league did in 2002-07 and 2012,2013,2015 and 2016, the league needs multiple teams in the top 50 unless the league gets a new bell cow that tanks it in the conference tourney.  Historically, that's been more the exception than the rule for the remaining programs, as well as for the schools they are looking at.  SIU leads with 5 times being ranked in the top 50, but all of those were 2007 and prior.  Here are the remaining schools and the year(s) they accomplished the feat.  Kenpom is a much better rating system than the RPI, and a better predictor of tourney success as well.

Bradley - 1 (2006)
Drake - 1 (2008)
Evansville - 0
Illinois St. - 1 (2017)
Indiana St. - 0
Loyola - 0
Missouri St. - 2 (2006, 2007)
Northern Iowa - 4 (2005, 2006, 2010, 2015)
SIU - 5 (2002, 2004 - 2007)

Murray - 1 (2012)
UNO - 0
UWM - 1 (2005)
Valpo - 2 (2002, 2016)

Especially when considering how hard it is for mid-major schools to get good home games against major programs, this doesn't bode well for any league outside of the top 7-8.  While past performance doesn't always predict future success, it is difficult to foresee a scenario in which the MVC adding any or all of these schools significantly and consistently improves their chances of getting 2-3 teams in the tourney each and every year.  Doesn't mean it can't happen, just that on a yearly basis the league would be more likely to have one bid than multiple based on each school's history.