2017 Valpo Football - Non-Game Thread

[usc4valpo]

Cecchini is doing a better job than Carlson, period. That being said, I think a 5 win or more season is a reasonable expectation.

[VU2624]

Cecchini is doing a better job than Carlson, period. That being said, I think a 5 win or more season is a reasonable expectation.

As an expectation I'd agree. As a prognostication at this point I can't.

[usc4valpo]

If you go by wins, losses, engagement and overall outlook, Cecchini is doing a better job. Valpo football under Carlson was a complete train wreck.

[vu72]

If you go by wins, losses, engagement and overall outlook, Cecchini is doing a better job. Valpo football under Carlson was a complete train wreck.

The understatement of the day!  Look, he has more wins in his three years than the previous five before him.  We haven't had a winning record since 2003.  Coach C had more wins last year than Carlson had in his four years at Valpo.

[VULB#62]

If you go by wins, losses, engagement and overall outlook, Cecchini is doing a better job. Valpo football under Carlson was a complete train wreck.

The understatement of the day!  Look, he has more wins in his three years than the previous five before him.  We haven't had a winning record since 2003.  Coach C had more wins last year than Carlson had in his four years at Valpo.

Valpo can't pick up a win vs Davidson this season since they don't play each other and they are unlikely to beat either of the replacements of Marist or Campbell. Dayton and probably Drake are far fetched as well. That leaves Butler which handily beat Valpo last season, Jacksonville which think will be much better this upcoming season with a full year under their new coach running that offense, and MSU as potential victims other than Stetson. If they can't beat Stetson then a reassessment is needed since the coaching timeline is similar.

I concur with both USC and 72 regarding Dave's body of work here at Valpo, and I would add culture change (sometimes the hardest thing to do) to the list of accomplishments.  That being said, 2624 also correctly points out that we still may not increase our number of wins this coming season due to a shifting schedule of opponents. My hope, if that comes to be, is that we show an even higher level of competitiveness (i.e., closer scores) in any losses.  Regarding a loss to Stetson, I would qualify that observation by looking at how a loss played out, i.e., close loss, solid football with both teams evenly matched OR Stetson blowout with Valpo making a ton of mistakes and poor play calling to match.

[VU2624]

Just to clarify my point about reassessment. What I mean is not that Cecchini should or would be under consideration for being replaced. What I meant is that possibly the coordinators would need to be looked at as there would be clear indication on both sides of the ball where there were problems with losses to certain teams.

At this point, looking at the schedule, a win vs Stetson is the only game it should be said is expected within the PFL schedule. Davidson is not on the schedule and I'll be very surprised if Jacksonville isn't a lot better this upcoming season. MSU may be a winable game as well pending on who is under center for them. Keep in mind they will have a 5th year senior (who has played) or redshirt junior taking snaps while Valpo may be lining up with a QB who's never taken a snap in a college game before when the season starts. That's a tremendous advantage. Butler should be winable but should have been last year as well and was a calamity. Dayton and Marist are on the other end of the spectrum in terms of even being competitive with them. Drake appears to be on a higher plane as well. That doesn't mean there's no chance at all to win those games but they would be major upsets. Campbell isn't in the league anymore and will also be a tough game to win.

So, again, if they can't win one or two of the games they should or could win, then some reassessment needs to be done as to why they can't move up the food chain further. On the other hand maybe they surprise me.

[VULB#62]

Your clarification makes  sense and is in line with the 'preparation and play calling' variable. Dave might have to make some tough choices if that is the case.

You bring up the QB "question."  That has been a 500 lb. gorilla in the locker room for every season Dave has been here starting with whether Ben would be the starter in year one --who is gonna be the QB?   And it always "seems" to come down to a torn/injured labrum or bad knee.  Is it something in the water in Valpo?

[usc4valpo]

Despite the QB situation, I expect to see improvement and a 5 win season should be the expectation this year. Sure there are injuries but an indicator of an improving football program is depth. yes, Cecchini is better than Carlson but the football program performance is still below expectations. Valpo this year should be competitive and beat Drake or Butler (or both). If we see blow outs, then a realistic systematic view is required on why Valpo has football.

[covufan]

Yes, Cecchini has been much better than the previous HC.  It seems as though Cecchini and the coaching staff have done a decent job in getting players here and playing more than just their freshman year. 

The only game that looks like a sure win would be the Trinity game.  With the exception of Dayton, we should be competitive in the PFL games.   I think we will also pull out wins against Stetson, Campbell and Butler.  We should also get one more win against either Marist, Morehead or Jacksonville.  I'm expecting five wins and hoping for six!  I believe five wins would be our first non-losing PFL (4-4) season in many years.

[VULB#62]

Yes, Cecchini has been much better than the previous HC.  It seems as though Cecchini and the coaching staff have done a decent job in getting players here and playing more than just their freshman year. 

The only game that looks like a sure win would be the Trinity game.  With the exception of Dayton, we should be competitive in the PFL games.   I think we will also pull out wins against Stetson, Campbell and Butler.  We should also get one more win against either Marist, Morehead or Jacksonville.  I'm expecting five wins and hoping for six!  I believe five wins would be our first non-losing PFL (4-4) season in many years.

Not a bad analysis. To me, that is the target. And when we talk about "target" that means injury free and the stars align.   

Let us pray. Dear Lord....................

[VU2624]

Despite the QB situation, I expect to see improvement and a 5 win season should be the expectation this year. Sure there are injuries but an indicator of an improving football program is depth. yes, Cecchini is better than Carlson but the football program performance is still below expectations. Valpo this year should be competitive and beat Drake or Butler (or both). If we see blow outs, then a realistic systematic view is required on why Valpo has football.

There's no doubt that the football program is better under Cecchini than it was under the previous regime. However some of the expecations I see may be a bit far reaching at the moment. Butler? Sure. Drake? Where's that coming from? Drake was 6-2 in the league last year, has about 10 5th year seniors and another 15 true Seniors including their QB while Valpo has 2 5th year seniors and may be starting a red shirt freshman at QB. If that's the expectation then they are unrealistic.

In addition, improvement is going to be incremental. Just because the team doesn't go from complete doormat to challenging to being capable of beating the better teams in the league within a couple of years doesn't mean blow up the program completely. That's just nonsense. Examine the program, find out where it can be made better and implement change.

I think the expectation in terms of number of wins (by some) may be unrealistic as the team would have to win all of their games within their league level "pool" which to me is MSU, Stetson, and Butler plus win another couple of games to get there. They basically lose a potential win by not playing Davidson. I don't see wins vs any of Dayton, Drake or Marist and I doubt they will sneak up on Jacksonville again. I don't know how Campbell plays the season. I'm not sure how their scholarship players factor in to things or even which players will be scholarshipped. They would be a tough win no matter the situation I would assume.

Keep in mind that of the three league wins last year, they were hanging on by a thread in 2 of them (Stetson and Jacksonville) and needed a really good 4 min drive to hold off Davidson. It's not as if they were in control of any of those games. A win is a win but all of those games could have gone in either direction last year. I think being maybe more dominant vs. at least a couple of those teams (Butler beat them handily) plus being more competitive vs teams such as Drake, Marist and Dayton would be moving it forward.

They could be a better team and finish with less wins.

[vu72]

Despite the QB situation, I expect to see improvement and a 5 win season should be the expectation this year. Sure there are injuries but an indicator of an improving football program is depth. yes, Cecchini is better than Carlson but the football program performance is still below expectations. Valpo this year should be competitive and beat Drake or Butler (or both). If we see blow outs, then a realistic systematic view is required on why Valpo has football.

There's no doubt that the football program is better under Cecchini than it was under the previous regime. However some of the expecations I see may be a bit far reaching at the moment. Butler? Sure. Drake? Where's that coming from? Drake was 6-2 in the league last year, has about 10 5th year seniors and another 15 true Seniors including their QB while Valpo has 2 5th year seniors and may be starting a red shirt freshman at QB. If that's the expectation then they are unrealistic.

In addition, improvement is going to be incremental. Just because the team doesn't go from complete doormat to challenging to being capable of beating the better teams in the league within a couple of years doesn't mean blow up the program completely. That's just nonsense. Examine the program, find out where it can be made better and implement change.

I think the expectation in terms of number of wins (by some) may be unrealistic as the team would have to win all of their games within their league level "pool" which to me is MSU, Stetson, and Butler plus win another couple of games to get there. They basically lose a potential win by not playing Davidson. I don't see wins vs any of Dayton, Drake or Marist and I doubt they will sneak up on Jacksonville again. I don't know how Campbell plays the season. I'm not sure how their scholarship players factor in to things or even which players will be scholarshipped. They would be a tough win no matter the situation I would assume.

Keep in mind that of the three league wins last year, they were hanging on by a thread in 2 of them (Stetson and Jacksonville) and needed a really good 4 min drive to hold off Davidson. It's not as if they were in control of any of those games. A win is a win but all of those games could have gone in either direction last year. I think being maybe more dominant vs. at least a couple of those teams (Butler beat them handily) plus being more competitive vs teams such as Drake, Marist and Dayton would be moving it forward.

They could be a better team and finish with less wins.

Where is this starting a red-shirt freshman quarterback talk coming from?  If Seewald is injured it happened during the spring which ended April 22.  Let's say it happened on the last day. That would leave over four months before the first game.  These kids are 18-21.  Four months to heal is a long time unless there was some sort of surgery which hasn't been reported.  If you have in-depth knowledge please share.

[VULB#62]

There's no doubt that the football program is better under Cecchini than it was under the previous regime. However, some of the expectations I see may be a bit far reaching at the moment. ........Butler? Sure. Drake? Where's that coming from? Drake was 6-2 in the league last year, has about 10 5th year seniors and another 15 true Seniors including their QB while Valpo has 2 5th year seniors and may be starting a red shirt freshman at QB. If that's the expectation, then they are unrealistic.

Where is this starting a red-shirt freshman quarterback talk coming from?  If Seewald is injured it happened during the spring which ended April 22.  Let's say it happened on the last day. That would leave over four months before the first game.  These kids are 18-21.  Four months to heal is a long time unless there was some sort of surgery which hasn't been reported.  If you have in-depth knowledge please share.

This is a QB with a shoulder problem.  Regardless of when it happened, if it is a labrum injury, I only have to remind us of (1) Dalton Stokes, who suffered one of those and hasn't been the same QB since and has been switched to WR in his senior year and (2) Connor Smith from Perry Meridian, who joined the team for only one season (15-16) with great expectations only to eventually give up the game due to his labrum injury.  Hopefully, Jimmy's injury is not as serious as those two.

[usc4valpo]

first of all, it the board sounds as if the season is a downer even before training camp begins.

Second, this is year 4, and progress needs to be seen. A clear inductor of a respectable football program is depth. A 2 or 3 win season is not a successful season going into year 4.

[VU2624]

Where is this starting a red-shirt freshman quarterback talk coming from?  If Seewald is injured it happened during the spring which ended April 22.  Let's say it happened on the last day. That would leave over four months before the first game.  These kids are 18-21.  Four months to heal is a long time unless there was some sort of surgery which hasn't been reported.  If you have in-depth knowledge please share.

I don't know when the QB suffered the injury. He did not participate in any throwing during spring ball. The info, which admittedly can be wrong, being thrown around was that it was a labrum issue. VULB provided an accurate synopsis of how well labrum injuries work for QBs as in not well. There is a long recovery process assuming there is recovery. Let's hope the info was incorrect.

[VU2624]

first of all, it the board sounds as if the season is a downer even before training camp begins. Second, this is year 4, and progress needs to be seen. A clear inductor of a respectable football program is depth. A 2 or 3 win season is not a successful season going into year 4.

One way they could come up with some depth is retention. I mentioned Drake's upperclassmen. How about a team many think would be in Valpo's wheelhouse in Butler. Butler has around 35 players on their roster who are in at least their 4th year in the program. 5th yr seniors, seniors and RS Jrs. You know how many Valpo has? NINE. One of them is a kicker. Two are former QBs changing positions.

Those two numbers alone, taking who the QB might be out of the equation, is a tremendous advantage for a team over Valpo. When I made my initial comment regarding analyzing the staff, this was also part of it. What are the other schools in the league doing which makes them more successful? It's not just coaching, schemes, etc. It's also more than talent in a lot of cases. The fact that Valpo's kids are consistently going up against squadfuls of teams who field players 2 and 3 years older and with more experience is a tremendous advantage for those teams over Valpo.

Stetson, who lost a lot to graduation, still has more 4+ year players than Valpo with 12. Davidson has 17. So this is an issue that Valpo needs to deal with and, since Dave has mentioned it over the course of his time here....he beat that drum constantly in 2015...I'm sure everyone is aware of the problem. Valpo had 12 four year+ players on the roster last year and I think 9 still had eligibility left. 2 returned. Of the remainder who chose not to return, 5 of them were starters or played a significant portion of the games. Two of them were OL where age and experience probably matter the most other than QB. However, there is hope for the future if not 2017.

When we look to 2018 and beyond, there appears to be only one player (Stokes) who would be a player eligible to return for a 5th season on the current roster. However, here's where maybe things can really start to change. Potentially, for the 2018 season, there could be 30 rostered players in their 4th year (current Jrs and RS SO).

The thing to consider is that class was this staff's first full recruiting class. They lost a lot of the inherited players along the way and maybe that's to be expected. Whatever the cause, they must retain a good deal of the 2018 (season) class and I expect them to.

So, while I may appear down on this particular upcoming season's potential record, I see great potential for a better situation next season. A game roster with many more four year players and a junior or senior QB with some ability will go a long way towards getting the program moving in the right direction. Without it, we'll see improved competitiveness but the same hang in there for a few quarters until they start to wear down against more than half the league schedule.

[VULB#62]

Well stated.

I might add that many of us, me included, tend to apply criteria based on the "norms" we observe which usually happen to be scholarship FB. That is not reasonable here. We, of course, would have much better retention if our kids were on full rides for 5 years, but $50+K for that additional year is tough in non-scholarship football.  True, all PFL teams face somewhat the same challenge to varying degrees, but winning begets winning and the hardest thing in the PFL is get over that initial hump when rebuilding a program.  If you read between the lines, 2624 did a great job below of articulating how difficult that is. But once we get over the hump, it will be easier to ride the winning into getting better recruits who we will be able to retain over 4 years.

[vu72]

I may be on to something, maybe not.  However, here is what I've observed.  Valpo has a bunch of engineering students.  This makes sense as a drawing tool given the nationally ranked engineering program.  It also makes sense that those students would want to get out of school and move on to highly paid jobs.

So I looked (briefly) at the Butler and Drake rosters and found next to zero engineering majors but also found a fifth year senior majoring in "exploratory major".  Huh???  For some reason, either they are not allowing their kids to take summer classes or they are majoring in basket weaving, who knows.

As a high level academic institution Valpo needs to graduate and get employed leaders in many fields.  If keeping kids around for six years through weak academics programs or other reasons is a means to a successful football program, then I would settle for middle of the pack.  Think Davidson, one of the top academic schools in the country.

[usc4valpo]

Butler and Drake do not have engineering programs, but academically Butler is on par with Valpo overall and Drake does have an outstanding pharmacy school.

Still, a three win season would be a letdown in my opinion.

[VU2624]

Butler and Drake do not have engineering programs, but academically Butler is on par with Valpo overall and Drake does have an outstanding pharmacy school. 

In terms of a fix for Valpo, it appears that with the current staffs first full recruiting class that they have at least started a rotation which allows for plenty of 4th year eligible players to be on the roster (the 2018 team). That year will likely include a fair number of 3rd year eligible seniors and it will be interesting to see if they are able to bring them back as 5th year seniors or they depend on very large (40+) recruiting classes to keep the number of seniors on the roster high. The staff hasn't been in this position their first 4 years and that includes the upcoming season.

It would be interesting to know how a school such as Drake is able to come up with as many athletes willing to stretch their education out over 5 years. Maybe they go 12 credits a semester and there is a way of moving the financial aid over 5 years or even just 9 semesters. I don't know.

Davidson doesn't appear to have any redshirts or at least chooses not to list them in that fashion.

[VU2624]

http://www.valpoathletics.com/football/news/2017-18/17487/crusaders-ready-to-begin-2017-fall-camp/#.WX_OlemQyM-

[usc4valpo]

Nice positive article. Thanks be to God they are not bringing back the "Shields Up " slogan.

[VULB#62]

http://www.valpoathletics.com/football/news/2017-18/17487/crusaders-ready-to-begin-2017-fall-camp/#.WX_OlemQyM-

Looks like it is time for a new thread. Let's move to a "Fall Camp" thread, ok?

[covufan]

Still, a three win season would be a letdown in my opinion.

Truth, in my opinion.

[vu72]

So as we near the end of the football season I took the time to look at Sagarin rankings historically to see how this teams results to date measure up.  I went back to 2000.

2000  214
2001  237
2003  211
2004  231
2005  237  (our friends at Butler were last)
2006  239
2007  230
2008  236
2009  245  (last) 
2010  245  (last) 
2011  246  (last) 
2012  245/246
2013  251/252
2014  244
2015  252/253
2016  245
2017  229/254  (best since 2003)   

So we are clearly moving in the right direction.  Top 200 should be the ultimate goal (San Diego ranked 164).  At the same time I wonder if Davidson will continue to hang in there as we did as they have now finished dead last 4 of the last 6 years and 2nd last one of the other two.