Possible Missouri Valley Conference Expansion

[wh]

You guys are forgetting also that programs do not receive their tournament credits as a lump sum but over a rolling six year period. That's why the number I used is so small, and that's why at large bids matter. You're not receiving 1\10th of a full credit per year per game played but rather 1\6th of 1\10th of a credit per year per game played or 1\60th of a credit per year per game played. Take the credit split it six ways then take each of those and split it 10 ways or 12 ways or whatever for every single game your conference plays. That is a schools yearly take compounded by the number of games played over the six year rolling period. Getting a program or two that gets you closer to gaining at large bids and makes the league more competitive helps a league like the MVC more than it hurts. The upside far outweighs the downside risk

What you're forgetting is that every year the conference receives not only a 1/6 share of the current year's pot, it also receives a 1/6 share of 5 prior pots. Thus, the annual loss from dividing by 12 instead of 10 doesn't affect just 1/6 of 1 annual pot, it affects 1/6 of 6 annual pots.
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[IrishDawg]

What happened in 2016 must have (rightly) set off alarm bells. If THAT team couldn't get an at-large it was reasonable to ask whether ANY HL team could have. We're very fortunate Wichita State sought greener pastures when they did. The HL's decline really is a shame because I'm sure they could have gotten schools like Murray State Belmont or at least the Dakotas had they been more proactive. Maybe that would have been enough to keep Butler from jumping to the A-10. It very likely would have kept Valpo and probably Loyola interested too. As much as we like to blame LeCrone I think greed and small thinking by the HL university presidents doomed the league as much as anything else. I don't want to see that happen again in the MVC. The time is now for the league to strike. Earlier moves may have even saved Creighton, or at least Wichita State.

Butler would not have stayed in the Horizon for a Murray State or Belmont when the A10 had Xavier, VCU, SLU (with Majerus) and Temple. The A10 earned 5 bids that year. The Horizon, even with both Murray State and Belmont, without Butler would have been a one-bid league that year. Creighton would not have passed on the Big East invite regardless of how proactive the MVC was. Wichita State wanted to be in the Big East too, but the AAC gets more in TV money than the MVC, is a multi-bid league every year (despite Memphis and UConn being uncharacteristically awful) and the schools they are competing against now spend like Wichita State does. In the 16-17 season, WSU spent $6.4M on men's basketball. The next closest school in the MVC was at $3.4M. Unless the rest of the schools in the MVC were willing to give WSU Gonzaga-like power, they were moving on as well.  If Loyola continues its success and spending on the program continues to rise, don't be surprised if the Big East calls them.

SLU would be a more ideal candidate because they already spend, don't duplicate TV markets and have a bigger gym than Loyola, but if a school can show its commitment to basketball and that it can earn the league more money than it is currently through TV or tourney shares, other leagues will poke around, just like the MVC is with Murray State and Belmont.

[VUGrad1314]

I very strongly doubt that Loyola would be in play for the Big East due to the presence of DePaul. I also think a conference of that caliber would want to see them sustain their success before inviting them. I think the Big East has the same problem that the MVC has: they lack one more suitable and willing potential addition within their footprint.

[vu72]

The Big East has a footprint?  Their only "footprint" in Catholicism. (oh, and Butler! )

[VU2014]

If the MVC does expand in the future, I wonder if this will have an impact on them getting in or not. Murray's AD was pushing hard & publicly to lobby the MVC last year. It looks like he's out. Maybe the future AD won't share the same vision.

https://twitter.com/TheAdamBWells/status/1017854347009552384

[VUGrad1314]

That would be a tremendous loss for the MVC. And also for Murray State. This is not a good day for expansion hopes.

[historyman]

If the MVC does expand in the future, I wonder if this will have an impact on them getting in or not. Murray's AD was pushing hard & publicly to lobby the MVC last year. It looks like he's out. Maybe the future AD won't share the same vision.

[tweet]1017854347009552384[/tweet]

What a name! Velvet Milkman!

I guess that is better than Looklikeda Milkman.

[usc4valpo]

VUGrad1314 - if you asked the Big East higher up about dumping DePaul and adding Loyola to their conference, they would do it immediately. DePaul is an embarrassment to the Big East.

[VUGrad1314]

What does that have to do with the MVC? Or expansion? Or Murray State?

[usc4valpo]

Velvet Milkman would make a great special guest villain in a Batman episode!

[usc4valpo]

Not sure. My bad. I really hate where DePaul is and I have utmost respect for the Ramblers.

[VULB#62]

What does that have to do with the MVC? Or expansion? Or Murray State?

Butler bailed on the A10 after only one season to go to the Big East. If the Big East were to dump DePaul and offer that slot (and the units that a multiple bid league would offer) to the Ramblers, don't you think it would impact the MVC if Loyola jumps?

[VUGrad1314]

Of course but then the MVC might get DePaul and it can rebuild its brand and\or Murray State and be just fine. Of course a Loyola-DePaul  swap  is never going to happen. The Big East can get 5-7 bids even with a bad DePaul and there's no reason whatsoever to kick DePaul out on academic grounds.

[VULB#62]

Of course but then the MVC might get DePaul and it can rebuild its brand and\or Murray State and be just fine. Of course a Loyola-DePaul  swap  is never going to happen. The Big East can get 5-7 bids even with a bad DePaul and there's no reason whatsoever to kick DePaul out on academic grounds.

Exactly. And I doubt the swap scenario would even be considered in St. Louis.

[valpo64]

Again I say regarding Loyola:  One year does not equate to a dynasty.  Remember a few years ago when everyone was saying what a mistake it was for the MVC to bring in Loyola?

[IrishDawg]

Again I say regarding Loyola:  One year does not equate to a dynasty.  Remember a few years ago when everyone was saying what a mistake it was for the MVC to bring in Loyola?

Yeah - and the Big East wouldn't swap the schools right now anyway.  DePaul is horrible, and Loyola should be good again this year, but a school doesn't become an attractive candidate to other leagues until they show they can make the tournament and win games consistently, which is more than a 1 or 2 year run.  If Loyola does that, then they could very well be offered a spot by the Big East or another league.  Plus DePaul got a brand spanking new arena last year and actually did take some steps in the right direction.

In terms of the MVC, I would be surprised if Murray State did an about face on trying to get in the MVC, but their entrance is again going to depend on their consistent success as a program.  Right now they're on about 4 year cycle to have a good, borderline at-large level team.  If they can shorten that to every couple, I think the MVC programs will overlook the public-private balance and let them in.

[VUGrad1314]

I think they're going to have about as good a team this year as they had last year which was a borderline at large caliber team. As I've said before January Morant is a special talent.

[usc4valpo]

I think Loyola is taking the right steps for sustainability. They are keeping Moser and they are recruiting better, and perhaps they can tap into the Chicagoland talent. Unlike Valpo in 1998, they are taking advantage of their success.

As for DePaul, besides a new arena what correct steps are they taking? They may have the worst AD out of all the power basketball conferences. Their record the past decade has been embarrassing.

[a3uge]

I think Loyola is taking the right steps for sustainability. They are keeping Moser and they are recruiting better, and perhaps they can tap into the Chicagoland talent. Unlike Valpo in 1998, they are taking advantage of their success.

As for DePaul, besides a new arena what correct steps are they taking? They may have the worst AD out of all the power basketball conferences. Their record the past decade has been embarrassing.

Can we stop treating a Sweet 16 run and a Final 4 run as the same thing?

[IrishDawg]

I think Loyola is taking the right steps for sustainability. They are keeping Moser and they are recruiting better, and perhaps they can tap into the Chicagoland talent. Unlike Valpo in 1998, they are taking advantage of their success.

As for DePaul, besides a new arena what correct steps are they taking? They may have the worst AD out of all the power basketball conferences. Their record the past decade has been embarrassing.

Depaul's Kenpom rating was in the top 100 last year (best since 2007), and they got a commitment from Romeo Weems, one of the 2, if not the top guy out of the state of Michigan in 2019 over Michigan State. Agree on their AD being the worst out there.

FWIW, every mid-major team that made their initial F4 runs kept their coaches around the following seasons, but assuming Loyola stays relevant and the school doesn't start spending like a Wichita State, eventually the right job will come along and Moser will leave. Sustainability comes from being able to be successful without it having to be a particular coach at the school.  Loyola could very well be that kind of program based on their available endowment, but it had been 33 years since their last tournament appearance (and this was Moser's 7th season), so from a historical perspective they're currently closer to George Mason (and I don't think Loyola's  at their level yet) than to VCU, Butler, Wichita State or Gonzaga.

[wh]

FWIW, every mid-major team that made their initial F4 runs kept their coaches around the following seasons, but assuming Loyola stays relevant and the school doesn't start spending like a Wichita State, eventually the right job will come along and Moser will leave. Sustainability comes from being able to be successful without it having to be a particular coach at the school.  Loyola could very well be that kind of program based on their available endowment, but it had been 33 years since their last tournament appearance (and this was Moser's 7th season), so from a historical perspective they're currently closer to George Mason (and I don't think Loyola's  at their level yet) than to VCU, Butler, Wichita State or Gonzaga.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8wu0kYJbKs

[usc4valpo]

Wow, a lot of hate toward Loyola here. Not sure why.  I was really impressed with their play, coordination and attitude. They represented the MVC proudly. I wish Valpo would be a flash in the pan like Loyola.

[FieldGoodie05]

Wow, a lot of hate toward Loyola here. Not sure why.  I was really impressed with their play, coordination and attitude. They represented the MVC proudly. I wish Valpo would be a flash in the pan like Loyola.

100% agree.  I'm excited for their success (for now)!

[IrishDawg]

Wow, a lot of hate toward Loyola here. Not sure why.  I was really impressed with their play, coordination and attitude. They represented the MVC proudly. I wish Valpo would be a flash in the pan like Loyola.

Talking about Loyola's place in college basketball from a historical perspective has very little to do with the team last season.  They were, as you said, a true team with good players, good coaching and great chemistry.  Their run was what fans all over college basketball dream of for their team each year.  However, prior to the run last season, they hadn't made a tournament since 1985.  Valpo had made it 9 times in that time.  In my opinion, even had Gonzaga not made their run a couple of years ago, their consistency in simply making the tournament 20 straight years is far harder than a F4 run in a single year.  Loyola is really going to be tested mentally this season.  Heck Northwestern simply made the tournament and won a single game 2 years ago, came back with over 83% of their scoring (Loyola brings back 60% of theirs next year), a preseason top 25 ranking, and struggled mightily in what was a weaker than normal Big Ten. 

That is not to say Loyola can't be just as good, if not better next year (and they were a good team this year).  But this year is going to test them in completely different ways.  They're going from the hunter to the hunted, they're going to have people telling them how great they are all offseason, and they're going to have a media following as the best team in Chicago, which can be mentally taxing if things don't continue to go well.  This isn't me "hating" on Loyola, though you are welcome to disagree.

[wh]

Wow, a lot of hate toward Loyola here. Not sure why.  I was really impressed with their play, coordination and attitude. They represented the MVC proudly. I wish Valpo would be a flash in the pan like Loyola.

I don't "hate" Loyola, but I do find all the gushing over their success somewhat over the top. They were a complete joke the entire time we were in the HL - a huge drag on conference RPI and contributed nothing positive. They were consistently terrible for decades prior to that. After several more years of floundering around they finally get it together thanks to a new arena, a priveleged location, and a gifted, unearned promotion to a higher rated conference. To their credit, they took advantage of their situation and turned it into something positive, but a Cinderella story they aren't. Now, we have people conjecturing about Loyola parlaying a 1-year success story (as impressive as it may be) into a move to the Big East. Are you kidding me?