Possible Missouri Valley Conference Expansion

[VU2014]

Was there ever really any real consistent  heat with anyone but Butler? I honestly think Oakland Detroit(for about a year or two) Green Bay (while Wardle was there) and Cleveland State (Waters era) followed by Wright State came closest to rivalries but none of them burned too brightly for too long. When we joined  we had our rival in Butler which admittedly was probably more one sided on our end, then I don't think we were there long enough after they left and the other teams were too cyclical to develop a single new rival. I know the conference collectively hated us though.

Those Butler games were always high charged and meant way more then any Wright State game (other then the HL champ game that one time) or NKU game, imo. The fan-base got up for the Butler games the way they didn't for other HL schools, other then Detroit for the McCallum Jr years and sort of the Oakland games towards the end of our tenure in the HL. It always felt like those games meant more to the opposing fan-bases then it meant to us. The rivalries never lasted too long in the Horizon League because the other programs couldn't sustain success (other then Butler who left). We were the big conference game on every HL school's schedule towards the end of our tenure but those games weren't "big" to us. Thankfully we're in a more competitive league now that will supply more meaningful and competitive games.

[VUGrad1314]

And the tighter footprint and greater coverage provide ample opportunities for rivalries to grow. We've got in-state games (ISUb Evansville) Close-proximity rivals (Loyola ISUr Bradley) Older fans may remember SIU's Barry Hinson from his days at ORU. A team whose tournament success we aspire to emulate (UNI) a similar academic institution (Drake) and a strong  team with whom we've had some great battles recently (Missouri State) The ARC needs to be packed every game in conference play, especially since it's no longer free to watch online anyway.

[valpotx]

Yes, Oral Roberts was a true rival for much of our time together in the Mid-Con.

[oklahomamick]

Barry Hinson, the hick from Marlow Oklahoma.

[VUGrad1314]

Oakland hired a new AD two weeks ago with a P5 background. This is a good sign that indicates their willingness to get to the next level. Coupled with the Mike Davis hire at UDM, is it possible that the MVC would look to Detroit as it searches for new members? I do think it's very possible that the Horizon League will be back on its way back up very soon. One thing that surprised me is how candidly Oakland's coach stated the need for facility upgrades. It may be best for the MVC to wait and see who emerges from the HL as the MVC focuses on getting even better to possibly attract its tier 1 targets. I just really think Murray State is going to force their hand pretty soon. They look really solid and poised for another big year.

https://twitter.com/BradGalli/status/10 ... 2829817859

Expansion Tier List (feel free to disagree)

Tier 1 adds: Belmont Murray State SDSU (Dayton and SLU would make this list if they were real possibilities)
Tier 2 adds: Wright State NKU NDSU
Tier 3 adds: Milwaukee UIC Detroit Oakland Green Bay South Dakota
Tier 4 adds: ORU UALR Denver SEMO North Dakota Omaha UMKC

[VUGrad1314]

More and more I'm warming to a Murray State\South Dakota State combo if such a thing were possible. I think that would really raise the profile of the league.

[IrishDawg]

More and more I'm warming to a Murray State\South Dakota State combo if such a thing were possible. I think that would really raise the profile of the league.

These two would certainly make it a tougher league, but I don't think that necessarily raises the profile of the MVC to a multi-bid league.  Murray State has had the seed profile of an at-large team just once in the last 15 years (2012, when they went 30-1 and were a 6 seed), while SDSU has never had an at-large profile (at least an 11 seed or better) in that timeframe.

While that wouldn't necessarily eat into the tournament shares for each school currently in the MVC that much on a yearly basis, their additions also wouldn't likely add to the conference's coffers either.  That doesn't even take into account the apparent public/private school politics in the MVC.

[valpo84]

Unless it's Murray, Dayton, SLU or Belmont, expansion makes no sense with any of the directional schools. NDSU and SDSU are flashes.  These conferences are 1-2 tiers below the MVC, and the schools above have not demonstrated any long term viability as a basketball school.  One good player does not make a school upwardly mobile.  Frankly, query (as they say in the Eastern Law Schools) whether Murray or Belmont should be elevated to the MVC?  I am particular to the Racers because they've had competitive programs since the 80s (14/30 NCAA tourney appearances since 1988, with wins), had Popeye Jones, a series of very good coaches who moved on, NBA draftees, and have basketball name recognition.  Belmont may be coach-driven and what happens when Rick Byrd retires?

Despite some nice research on Wright State, it is also the 2d team in a small media market.  It is maybe 8th or 9th in a larger media market (Cincy/NK/Dayton).  Dayton is not even a good HS basketball area except for 1-2 teams annually so unclear about recruiting hotbed.  NKU is a newbie to D1 and has not established any long tem anything yet.  Let's see in 10 years.  Again it is about 10th in terms of coverage in Cincy after X, UC, UK, Louisville, Dayton, OSU and Miami for starters.  (I'm also still bitter about WSU's entry into (and abrupt exit from) the Mid-Con. 

Among many factors, we left the HL to move up and play better competition, not to drag along state schools that have middling academic programs and no connection to our Mission without any measurable improvement in quality of play. 

[bigmosmithfan1]

Expansion makes no sense at all under the current selection committee. It will mean less resources and a tougher path to the tournament for everyone in the league.

[VUGrad1314]

Unless it's Murray, Dayton, SLU or Belmont, expansion makes no sense with any of the directional schools. NDSU and SDSU are flashes.  These conferences are 1-2 tiers below the MVC, and the schools above have not demonstrated any long term viability as a basketball school.  One good player does not make a school upwardly mobile.  Frankly, query (as they say in the Eastern Law Schools) whether Murray or Belmont should be elevated to the MVC?  I am particular to the Racers because they've had competitive programs since the 80s (14/30 NCAA tourney appearances since 1988, with wins), had Popeye Jones, a series of very good coaches who moved on, NBA draftees, and have basketball name recognition.  Belmont may be coach-driven and what happens when Rick Byrd retires?

Despite some nice research on Wright State, it is also the 2d team in a small media market.  It is maybe 8th or 9th in a larger media market (Cincy/NK/Dayton).  Dayton is not even a good HS basketball area except for 1-2 teams annually so unclear about recruiting hotbed.  NKU is a newbie to D1 and has not established any long tem anything yet.  Let's see in 10 years.  Again it is about 10th in terms of coverage in Cincy after X, UC, UK, Louisville, Dayton, OSU and Miami for starters.  (I'm also still bitter about WSU's entry into (and abrupt exit from) the Mid-Con. 

Among many factors, we left the HL to move up and play better competition, not to drag along state schools that have middling academic programs and no connection to our Mission without any measurable improvement in quality of play. 

I disagree very strongly about South Dakota State. Since 2010-2011--that's 8 seasons of data--they have:

Averaged 23.25 wins
Beaten Iowa X2 Minnesota Ole Miss TCU Washington New Mexico (when they had an RPI of 2 and were nationally ranked) Buffalo X2 (including last year) Belmont Middle Tennessee  Murray State  multiple MVC teams and a host of other schools that were top 100 finishers but not as perennially successful
Average RPI: 92.25 No sub 200 years
5 tournament appearances
5 top 100 RPI finishes including 4 times in the top 62
Strong  Womens sports
All in a league consistently better than the OVC

RPI Rankings:

Summit:21 16 19 17 21 11 17 17
OVC:    27  21 16 24 25 21 25 21
ASUN*: 17  20
Their numbers over the past 8 years suggest that they are a step below Belmont but even better than Murray State. In fact, they frequently finish AHEAD of BOTH Just for fun I threw in NDSU to show that while the potential exists for them to be a good program they are a clear tier below.

SDSU:   37 155 28  99 133  62  42 183
Murray: 48 230 169 63 145 117 22 117
Belmont:81 60  95 104  51  19   58** 51**
NDSU:  210 111 125 90 33^ 75  183  238

* Belmont were members of the Atlantic Sun Conference for the first two years of this data set (2010-2011 and 2011-2012)
**In Atlantic Sun Conference

^ Beat Oklahoma in NCAA Tournament 

SDSU has finished with the best RPI of this group two of the past three years and has finished ahead of just Murray State 3 times and just Belmont  twice.

Belmont is the rock-steady standard bearer at 64.8 average RPI SDSU's 92.25 mark actually bests Murray State at 113.8

Hi\Lo gives us: 109.8 for Murray State 66 for Belmont  and 88 for South Dakota State

3 year peak leaves  42.7 for Belmont 73.3 for SDSU and  85.3 for Murray State

Interestingly 3 year peak indicates that NDSU has a higher ceiling (66) than SDSU despite checking in in the 130s in average and Hi\Lo thus indicating greater volatility and greater difficulty sustaining success. They also have the lowest high RPI the lowest low RPI and are the only team in this group with multiple sub 200 seasons

As you can see, by posting better more consistent numbers in a consistently better league one could make the case that SDSU is a better addition than Murray State and not just because of Mike Daum or Scott Nagy either. Of course, longevity matters and nobody beats Murray State there. Belmont comes close with 19+ wins every year since 2005-2006. The Racers have also weathered the storm of multiple coaching changes unlike Belmont and SDSU, and there are legitimate concerns as to whether Belmont can last beyond Byrd or SDSU beyond Otzelberger. Still, the same things were said about Valpo when the Drews left and SDSU when Nagy left, even Murray State deals with that question every time they replace a coach. Oftentimes when a program is successful for this long it's because of principles and a blueprint so firmly woven into the fabric of a program that they endure even after the coach that instilled them in the first place leaves. This is particularly true when a program hires from within.

[VU2014]

I'd evaluate the worthiness of adding SDSU after Mike Daum graduates. Chances are very slim a player of Daum's caliber joins SDSU program. I don't expect Valpo to land another player of AP's caliber for quite a while but our program has had a proven track record for decades prior to AP. I'm not sure we could say the same about SDSU and I'm not trying to take a shot at them or imply we are a powerhouse.

I think it's fair to only want to add programs that are at our "level" (with a proven track record) or better then we were coming into the MVC.

The only schools that I'd have in the conversation are: Murray State, Belmont, SLU, Dayton. SLU and Dayton are very unlikely to join as things currently stand. Even to a certain extent Belmont sounds unlikely. I'm against the idea of going to 14 teams. That just divides resources up too much and I don't think there are 4 realistic potential schools that would actually boost us up to multiple bids.

[VUGrad1314]

Yeah, to be fair to Murray State, adding a ninth year to the evaluation window would have given them another top 60 RPI season while adding a sub-200 year to SDSU and giving Belmont its worst RPI in the window. Plus a second NCAA Tournament win.  The average RPIs would be:

Belmont 72.7
Murray State: 107.6
SDSU: 108.1

Hi\Lo would be :

Belmont 71.4
SDSU: 101.6
Murray State: 102.3

Three Year Peak:

Belmont: 42.7
SDSU:73.3
Murray State: 65.3

You can see that SDSU and Murray State have been roughly the same caliber of program the past 8-9 years and the first couple of years of the data set are the worst SDSU has been indicating a strong positive trend.

[VULB#62]

Now that we are safely in the MVC, it might be fun (I think...... Maybe.  Maybe not.) to see how all of these different comparison metrics would look like if we add a 4th team into the equation over the same time span:  Valpo.

[VUGrad1314]

Now that we are safely in the MVC, it might be fun (I think...... Maybe.  Maybe not.) to see how all of these different comparison metrics would look like if we add a 4th team into the equation over the same time span:  Valpo.

On it!

[VUGrad1314]

Since I went as far back as 09-10 for everyone else I'll use the same data for Valpo:

With MVC Year added 09-10-17-18:

League Strength: 14 11 14 12 14 16 18 19 8

Valpo RPI: 186 71 95 58 192 50 49 71 187

Average RPI 106.5
6 top 100 finishes (Belmont 7 SDSU 5 Murray State 4)
5 Top 75 finishes Same as Belmont) Murray State 4 SDSU 4)
Hi-Lo: 102.5
3 year peak: 56.6 higher than Murray State and SDSU

Pre-MVC:(09-10-16-17):

League Strength: 14 11 14 12 14 16 18 19
Valpo RPI: 186 71 95 58 192 50 49 71


Average RPI: 96.5
Hi-Lo: 88.5
3 year peak: 56.6

Under the original time period studied 10-11-present (MVC Year Included) :

11 14 12 14 16 18 19 8
71 95 58 192 50 49 71 187

Average RPI: 96.6
Hi-Lo: 88.7
3 year peak: 56.6

Pre-MVC:
11 14 12 14 16 18 19
71 95 58 192 50 49 71

Average RPI: 83.7
Hi-Lo: 69
3 year peak: 56.6

Since only the  pre-MVC numbers mattered to the MVC I will eliminate this year from everyone's resume This could really  hurt all of these teams as all will lose a top-100 RPI year:

Average RPI 10-11-16-17:

SDSU: 100.2
Murray State: 123.2
Belmont: 62.5
Valpo 83.7

Hi-Lo 10-11-16-17: 
SDSU: 98.2
Murray State: 122.2
Belmont: 63
Valpo: 69

3 year peak 10-11-16-17:

Murray State: 85.3
Belmont: 42.7
SDSU:79
Valpo: 56.6

Going back even further: (09-10-16-17 :

The average RPIs would be:

Belmont 71.6
Murray State: 115
SDSU: 117.5
Valpo: 96.5

Hi\Lo would be :

Belmont 69.8
SDSU: 112.3
Murray State: 111.3
Valpo: 88.5

Three Year Peak:

Belmont: 42.7
SDSU:73.3
Murray State: 65.3
Valpo: 56.6

Valpo compares quite favorably and was not a bad add. Murray State and SDSU are comparable adds and would help the league tremendously.

[VUGrad1314]

Apologies in advance if my math is slightly off. I've been at this virtually all day and my brain is tired. Please feel free to correct them as you see fit.

[VULB#62]

Great, quick response 1314. Overlooking the +/- factor, it still confirms the MVC's decision to invite us. The thing that stands out to me is Belmont's lofty ratings and record. But playng and winning is lesser competitive conferences has its advantages.

[VUGrad1314]

You can take these numbers and show them to anyone who thinks Valpo was a bad addition\the wrong addition. That clearly is false. The only reason our numbers don't look even better is because the transition years are major departures from the successful runs. I just hope the trend holds and we're now in for at least 3 years as a top 50-100 team after this tough year. It is comforting to know however that as bad as the Riverside loss was, as hard as the Big 10 blowouts were to endure, and as excruciatingly tough to swallow the first 10 MVC games were, Our Crusaders still beat 3 teams (almost 4) in the nonconference with RPIs around 150 (SELA Kent State Utah State) and 3 top 105 teams in conference (Bradley Illinois State Southern Illinois) with every win except Utah State coming by double digits. There were plenty of positive signs to be encouraged by as we all know and numerous  reasons to think the team will be fine going forward.  And that was a bad year with a young team. It also might dispel to some degree the notion that Murray State would have come in and been top 2 in the MVC this year. They had a more experienced team, but a greater jump in competition making their adjustment harder. Yes, they won in Redbird Arena, Sure, they beat SIU at home, and the close Auburn loss is clear evidence that they would have and could have been very competitive but they weren't facing the Redbirds or the Salukis in midseason form. They may not have finished last, but they probably would have struggled. Still think they belong in the MVC and would be a great addition. I am still a proponent of expansion ; though, as my  numbers indicate, Valpo was and remains the right call if only one team was going to be taken.

[VUGrad1314]

A situation possibly worth monitoring from an MVC perspective.

https://www.tulsaworld.com/sportsextra/tusportsextra/bill-haisten-derrick-gragg-philip-montgomery-and-frank-haith-accept/article_833b8a0b-9b60-5982-be6d-ecda78465987.html

[may know]

 

[VUGrad1314]

If the university is having funding issues one of the first areas they would look to cut would be whether FBS football in a cross-country conference is preferable to FCS football in a conference with a much tighter footprint (and the best FCS football conference and a strong overall conference in multiple sports. I don't think they'll ultimately have to do anything that drastic because the AAC  is probably going to get an increased payday so they're probably going to be fine but still it could be something to monitor since they were once members of the MVC

[wh]

A situation possibly worth monitoring from an MVC perspective.

https://www.tulsaworld.com/sportsextra/tusportsextra/bill-haisten-derrick-gragg-philip-montgomery-and-frank-haith-accept/article_833b8a0b-9b60-5982-be6d-ecda78465987.html

Another school that milked the foreign student cash cow for all it was worth, and now they have a serious financial problem.

https://www.channel3000.com/news/education/sharp-drop-in-international-student-visas-worries-us-colleges/715547199

"That's bad news for schools that have large international student populations. Nearly 20% of the University of Tulsa's 4,400 enrolled students hail from overseas.

Johnson said his school has experienced declines in international enrollment for a few years now and it is starting to hurt revenue. The university has even placed a school official in China to recruit more students from overseas."

Adding insult to injury, Tulsa's Education Department has lost its accreditation

https://www.google.com/amp/www.tulsaworld.com/news/education/tu-s-education-department-loses-state-accreditation-jeopardizing-students-in/article_93007682-1188-56c0-b95a-2402231f9768.amp.html

[VUGrad1314]

Oh man Tulsa back to the MVC could potentially be more real than any of us realize.

[may know]

"If the university is having funding issues one of the first areas they would look to cut would be whether FBS football in a cross-country conference is preferable to FCS football in a conference with a much tighter footprint"

This never happens in the modern era unless you're stuck without a conference in the panhandle of Idaho with the Big Sky waiting for you.

[crusaderjoe]

This never happens in the modern era unless you're stuck without a conference in the panhandle of Idaho with the Big Sky waiting for you.

And, this never happens in the modern era unless there is a major lack of support from top level administration to maintain FBS, and the program has an antiquated FBS facility that arguably might be one of the worst stadiums in the entire country or is at least in need of major modern updates, and to draw fan support from a fledgling program you must compete with 1) an instate rival in Boise who has had major success at the FBS level and has well surpassed Idaho in fan interest and 2) a P5 PAC 12 school in WSU eight miles from your campus.

Even then, with all the foregoing, if Idaho's administration would have been committed to FBS football after their tour in the Sun Belt was over, my guess is they would have stayed there regardless of the negatives. There's a reason why UMASS, NMSU and Liberty are maintaining FBS Independent status, UAB fought like hell to revive its program, and EMU plans on staying put in the MAC.