Possible Missouri Valley Conference Expansion

[VUGrad1314]

Why are you so positive about us and the MVC?

Because this is like a dream come true for Valpo. It's the best midmajor conference in the midwest and allows not only the basketball team but the entire athletic department to compete at a really high level offering multiple sports the potential for at large bids. It's the best situation a midwestern school of our location size and budget can hope for given that we aren't urban and don't have football. But mostly it feels like home in a way the HL never did. Closer schools more private schools more in-state schools not as urban\commuter oriented more basketball focused more passionate fan bases. That's why I'm so positive. As for Valpo's role in the MVC I just believe that we will rise to the occasion as we have in the past. It took awhile to get going in the HL and our facilities lagged behind many in the conference and that turned out great. None of it mattered as much as the program . Obviously now it will be harder we have further to go and our program's strength will be tested by other great programs but challenge is never a bad thing. Programs grow from it and ours shouldn't be an exception to that rule. I see no evidence yet that Valpo is in over its head or has made a mistake and is hurting its program and I don't expect to see any. That said here's a note on Murray State after having some time to cool down and gather myself after last night's impressive showing. Full disclosure I am still 100% in favor of adding them ASAP BUT: It is possible that Ja Morant is their Alec Peters and that they might struggle with the transition to the MVC as we have as they search for their next go to star. It doesn't mean they shouldn't be added but it does mean that there's a chance that they won't immediately solve all of our problems.

VUgrad1314, I hope your optimism and energy persists on the forum for years to come.  Please don't be discouraged by my (and others') less optimistic views than yours.  Just as you show emotion in your posts, I might show emotion in trying to cool your jets!!  It's all in good fun and I hope you keep sharing your POV.

Thanks. I hope you and everyone who is less optimistic continues to post as well. I love discussion so I enjoy trying to address every point if I can. That's why so many of my posts are so long. I also try very hard to be fair-minded and factual. I may be proven wrong by time and experience but I try to provide reasonable well-researched takes and content filtered through the prism of the emotion of  a lifelong (almost) resident and  fan who is also an alum. That's why I'm frequently emotional and perhaps sometimes slightly inconsistent though not usually. I like to think I've mostly kept true to my goals. I wear my heart on my sleeve and I post what I feel or information\speculation I find interesting and that's exactly who I am.


As you've seen on the game threads I am far from an eternal optimist but I tend to see the good of situations and most of my posts are optimistic because things ARE good. Yeah we sucked last year, yes I'm anxious to see the team perform well and prove that they belong because I love this team and conference  and want to see both do well but we weren't THAT bad last year  we're in a top 10 conference the tournament coffers are filling again we're treated to terrific high level basketball every night from Jan-Mar our radio reach into the region is expanding, we're on TV (local and national) more than ever, we have a puncher's chance at at large bids, life is good and we've been blessed. How many programs get to jump up in weight class twice in a decade? We have the opportunity most every school in our former conferences would love to have. We're living the dream athletically for a small suburban private school. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't strive for better when opportunity falls into our lap (Murray State)


Getting a bad seed and losing in the first round sucks so having that 10 or 11 seed could really help us some year we should also be able to play our way into the NIT more frequently. Remember how much fun 2016 was? We should be able to have that more here if we do what's expected of us and pull our weight.


If anything I've ever posted has offended anyone I'm sorry. Nothing I type here is meant to be  personal toward anyone. I attack positions not people posts not posters. If I come off as arrogant or condescending I apologize. I use things like rhetorical questions as devices  to frame my arguments. I'm not trying to talk down to anyone. I think if we ever met at a game or an alumni event we'd get along great because we all love sports and all want the same thing: to see Valpo light up every opponent that comes to the ARC. Go Valpo!

[VUGrad1314]

This is just a thought that's been buzzing around my head for a bit:

The P5 significantly hurt mid-major basketball through aggressive expansion campaigns what if we did the same to low major conferences to help wrestle some of that control of the tournament bubble back? For example could you imagine with the year the SOCON is having if Belmont Lipscomb and Liberty were there? Or the MVC with teams like Murray State NKU and South Dakota State? Or how about a WCC with Seattle U and GCU and the MWC with NMSU. We could create several midmajor superconferences where chances for  quality wins abound throughout the year and give our second or even perhaps third best teams legitimate hope for an at-large bid or at least a high NIT seed. We would all take our P5 crumbs\MTEs and then play each other with the remaining spots in our nonconference schedule thereby ensuring enough chances for quality wins and a good string SOS for everyone.

[elephtheria47]

The problem is, when the P5 did that, they stole bubble spots/bids from the mid majors. Where or who are the mid majors stealing bids from? The lower conferences are still going to get one team in. But I agree that MVC needs to expand because a) theres always a bubble team or two that doesnt deserve getting in and that could be the difference to tip it in the MM favor b) need to establish the MVC as the clear best mid major league to get some late blooming talent or p5 busts who transfer out and c) the AAC is shaky right now and another round of realignment is shaping up to happen in the next year or two

[VUGrad1314]

They're not necessarily taking spots from anyone (though if the movement gets aggressive enough you could see 1-4 conferences dissolve) this is about absorbing the top of the low majors to improve our own metrics from within by reducing the amount of bad losses in conference  by allowing for more creative scheduling and more chances at quality wins. The super conferences then play each other in the non-con when not playing P5\MTE games and fill in the schedule with regional low majors to eliminate non-D1s. This boosts SOS and NET rating and takes the fight directly to the P5. It's basically Mark Adams scheduling ideas except we cut out the middle man and do it ourselves. It forces to P5 and\or the NCAA to try something else to keep us out.

[oklahomamick]

AAC is shaky?  Where are you getting that? 

Conference realignment in the next year or two?  No, not until the tv contracts expire.  I think the ACC or big 12 are first in 2025.

[crusadermoe]

Belmont won't join because basketball at our level is not a big revenue producer like in the P5 or especially like football. 

It is far wiser for Belmont to look at their footprint for all sports because costs are a much bigger factor for conference choice than new "hypothetical" revenue gains from a bid in a 12-team MVC or a higher seed when it happens.   

SLU needs to look at that calculus through the same lens.  They are not Marquette or even Dayton in strength.  Two years ago I kept hearing they were squeezed financially.  It seems they don't have the luxury of a massive net loss in athletics just to keep the candle burning that they will be a national player again.  Flying to Fordham, St. Bon, UMass, for multiple sports is just STUPID at a maximum level.  The faculty must be mad enough to spit.  Their current KenPom matches even with Loyola (a natural catholic rival).   Right now they do well in the A10 in hoops but they could contend easily for a bid every year in the MVC and eventually get back success and attendance revenue.   I'm sure Elgin checks in often from his address in the same city.

[bbtds]

Belmont won't join because basketball at our level is not a big revenue producer like in the P5 or especially like football. 

It is far wiser for Belmont to look at their footprint for all sports because costs are a much bigger factor for conference choice than new "hypothetical" revenue gains from a bid in a 12-team MVC or a higher seed when it happens.   

SLU needs to look at that calculus through the same lens.  They are not Marquette or even Dayton in strength.  Two years ago I kept hearing they were squeezed financially.  It seems they don't have the luxury of a massive net loss in athletics just to keep the candle burning that they will be a national player again.  Flying to Fordham, St. Bon, UMass, for multiple sports is just STUPID at a maximum level.  The faculty must be mad enough to spit.  Their current KenPom matches even with Loyola (a natural catholic rival).   Right now they do well in the A10 in hoops but they could contend easily for a bid every year in the MVC and eventually get back success and attendance revenue.   I'm sure Elgin checks in often from his address in the same city.

Looking for a conference affiliation thread on Billikens.com I did notice this on a post about St Louis becoming an NBA city:

Richard Chaifetz: 'I'd love to be involved' in bringing an NBA team to St. Louis
... In a wide ranging interview Sunday with the Business Journal, Chaifetz affirmed the sentiment that he thinks St. Louis is an NBA city. Would he be interesting in owning a local NBA team or helping to bring the league to St. Louis? 

"I'd love to be involved with a team in St. Louis in the NBA. It'd be great for the city," he said.


They, as a board, are not interested in changing conferences.
The board, in general, gets excited about their conference tournament in Brooklyn and playing on the east coast.


The SLUMBB did catch a break in the sexual assault case:

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/slu/no-criminal-charges-in-case-related-to-slu-s-title/article_39d796b5-67d3-594c-8a25-aff0b53ef4e2.html#tracking-source=home-the-latest

[elephtheria47]

https://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/news/2018/12/10/sources-u-of-m-offered-bigger-piece-of-tv-deal-to.html

That article mentioned the AAC contract runs out in 2020. They are asking their members to sign a grant of rights agreement so they can negotiate a bigger media contract, but that didn't go over so well.

UCF will be looking for a better spot for their football program. Went undefeated and still didn't sniff the playoff talk.

And these articles came out over the weekend about UCONN's huge financial problems. https://www.courant.com/sports/hc-sp-uconn-sports-athletic-department-finances-revenue-expenses-20190117-2wdp5gimnvhlliwykl6npcmy7u-story.html

This article mentions that UCONN may be chopping some sports. https://www.apnews.com/5bf6e16950ec4de89117c206fff8786a

UCONN has to be having second thoughts about sticking multi million dollars into their football team to lose 5+ million dollars. Their attendance for basketball is down...noone cares about AAC basketball and far away programs. They are missing the additional attendance figures for their mens games (close, natural rivalries in a basketball driven conference) and the slice of the pie the big east gets from the NCAA tournament? (Off the top of my head, i believe they got over 50% of their teams in the last few years).

There's been talks that the big east may way to add a school. It'll be interesting to see what happens. More curious is to see what UCONN and the AAC does. Do they add a school or two and try to increase the media contract/exposure? Do they implode?

[VUGrad1314]

Detroit as potential private school counterweight to Murray State? Not sure how I feel about that. That would probably just upset the public schools.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-869082-page-6.html

[valpotx]

If it was Detroit, I would hope that we require them to add Baseball.

[VUGrad1314]

Why would we? We didn't make Loyola? I bet Loyola is pushing for Detroit pretty hard since they're both Jesuit and they probably have strong cache after their Final 4 run.

[crusadermoe]

Adding Detroit is a HORRIBLE idea.     

Is that a joke?        

[VUGrad1314]

Is it time to consider Lipscomb as the private school to balance Murray State's inclusion? If nothing else that could motivate Belmont to get serious as I'm sure the idea of getting passed up by Lipscomb wouldn't sit very well with them.

[crusadermoe]

Why the rush to grab a no-name just to add Murray?   I just don't see it.  SLU or bust.

[may know]

Lipscomb (36 NET) and Murray (49 NET) would be running away with the MVC this year.

[VUGrad1314]

Belmont would be too and NKU might be as well.

[bbtds]

Why the rush to grab a no-name just to add Murray?   I just don't see it.  SLU or bust.

That Lipscomb "no-name" is 17-4 with an 8-0 conference record in the Atlantic Sun. They have lost to Belmont twice, Louisville and Clemson.

http://www.lipscombsports.com/mbasketball/schedule/

[VUGrad1314]

If my memory serves they had a top 100 RPI and beat Belmont twice last year. Two years doesn't make a trend  but it's very promising.

[vu84v2]

Beyond Murray State (and assuming Belmont would never happen), the two schools that seem best to consider would be NKU and South Dakota State. Both seem to be showing consistency strength in their basketball programs and (to my knowledge) are sufficiently strong in other sports. NKU brings another larger market and SDSU has a strong fan base (being the only thing in town). Detroit?  No way!  Lipscomb? Let's see if they continue for a few more years.

[VUGrad1314]

SDSU is in a Belmont-like situation. Tournament in their backyard lots of schools close by strong position within the conference they're in and I don't see the MVC as a travel win for them. I doubt they would join for all sports.

[bbtds]

I decided to take a further look at Lipscomb. While Valpo fans were lamenting a 1 point loss to Missouri State on Tuesday night Lipscomb went on the road against conference foe Liberty in Lynchburg, VA. It was a battle of undefeated teams in the Atlantic Sun. Not only did Lipscomb beat Liberty on the road but they beat them handily 79-59. Liberty is 18-5 and is now 7-1 in the league. That's quite a statement game by the Bison.

http://www.lipscombsports.com/mbasketball/news/2018-19/15680/bisons-alone-at-top-of-asun-after-hammering-liberty-79-59/

[VUGrad1314]

I don't know why but I feel very concerned about Loyola potentially leaving for the A10 or AAC. There's no sources suggesting this but I bet they're one more conference title\tournament run from making it happen. Both leagues would provide a  boost in exposure and recruiting opportunities and most likely even to SOS\tournament opportunities. They could still schedule  Illinois State SIU Valpo UIC  Milwaukee and IUPUI if they have spots to fill on their schedule. Both conferences  would involve a major travel increase but the A10 especially would be a phenomenal institutional fit for them. I know the A10 has said no midwestern adds and the AAC isn't keen on basketball only schools but I think both conferences would do it for the Chicago presence alone. Plus it benefits the A10 greatly. Not only do they gain a Chicago presence a resurgent program and a quality institution but they also weaken a rival league  and shut down once and for all any chance of the MVC losing Dayton or SLU while simultaneously making the path forward for the MVC very difficult. Would Murray State still want to join? Belmont would certainly be out. Would any HL teams even entertain making the jump as the MVC multibid dream would be very tough to realize. I think this is a very valid concern especially as Loyola continues to experience success.

[may know]

A10 already notified Dayton and SLU no midwest members are being added.

Loyola's board had a thread a couple weeks ago and no one was interested.
http://www.ramblermania.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=2591

Sometimes you have to hit the brakes. There's a reason "there's no sources suggesting this".

[IrishDawg]

I don't know why but I feel very concerned about Loyola potentially leaving for the A10 or AAC. There's no sources suggesting this but I bet they're one more conference title\tournament run from making it happen. Both leagues would provide a  boost in exposure and recruiting opportunities and most likely even to SOS\tournament opportunities. They could still schedule  Illinois State SIU Valpo UIC  Milwaukee and IUPUI if they have spots to fill on their schedule. Both conferences  would involve a major travel increase but the A10 especially would be a phenomenal institutional fit for them. I know the A10 has said no midwestern adds and the AAC isn't keen on basketball only schools but I think both conferences would do it for the Chicago presence alone. Plus it benefits the A10 greatly. Not only do they gain a Chicago presence a resurgent program and a quality institution but they also weaken a rival league  and shut down once and for all any chance of the MVC losing Dayton or SLU while simultaneously making the path forward for the MVC very difficult. Would Murray State still want to join? Belmont would certainly be out. Would any HL teams even entertain making the jump as the MVC multibid dream would be very tough to realize. I think this is a very valid concern especially as Loyola continues to experience success.

Loyola isn't even close to the team they were last season.  They might still be experiencing success in the MVC this year, but right now the MVC's conference rating on Kenpom is almost exactly the same as what the Horizon League was in 2016 (2019 MVC is -1.12, 2016 HL was -1.07, and both were ranked 16th).

They might make the tournament this year (even that's completely up in the air given how wide open the league is), but no one's going to overlook them this year, and it would be even more surprising if they were able to win a game or two given how much their offense and defense have fallen in efficiency since last season. 

I'd also like to see how well they do after this year when they don't have Custer or Townes.  Krutwig is a beast and will continue to be a centerpiece for them, but the guys coming up behind Custer and Townes have a lot of developing to do for them to remain at the top of the league, IMO.  Maybe the A-10 might be interested, but short of them turning into a juggernaut in the MVC and building at-large resumes year after year (similar to what Wichita did), I would have a hard time believing that a league like the AAC would be interested in adding a basketball-only member, even if they are in Chicago.

[VUGrad1314]

Man every time I want to talk up NKU as a potential addition alongside Murray State they go and blow a chance to make a statement like they did tonight. Let's just do 11 and 20 with Murray State. There's no good reason not to.