Possible Missouri Valley Conference Expansion

[Just Sayin]

The only thing dragging the MVC down is Evansville and Valpo.

[usc4valpo]

Decent - would like to see the Valley tap in on the Texas market for long term growth.
SD State would be a dumb addition. The ultimate truck stop.

[vuny98]

Sounds like UIC is getting an invite too

[Just Sayin]

UIC has been ranked on average in the mid-to-upper 280s for the past 5-10 years. Bad choice. Get winning teams not bottom feeders.

[wh]

I really think the next add is going to be a public and it's going to be UIC I think there's a big difference between adding a football playing public vs a non football public Non football publics function a lot more like private schools anyway and I think the MVC places a high degree of importance on maintaining a presence in the Chicago market UIC is the best and really only way to do that with Loyola gone. Moreover UIC has an excellent academic reputation and a really solid athletic department outside of men's basketball. There's a lot to like there. I don't think the public private balance matters much to the presidents given that we were rumored to be going as high as 14 and every candidate except Belmont was a public. I think we've reached the phase where we are going to accept non football publics as pseudo privates of sorts and I don't see that as a bad thing. Even with an uneven split favoring the public's which has existed throughout much of the MVC's history the conference has thrived and it's members have enjoyed a mostly harmonious coexistence. I expect nothing less in the future regardless of the split between publics and privates. Let's not forget that even with an uneven split this is still by far the most institutionally friendly conference we have ever called home by far in addition to being by far and away the most competitive. I see no reason to be upset even if the conference adds a couple more public schools. As for private schools I really believe St Thomas is eventually coming down the line once they get their feet under them in D1. They have so much potential I have no doubt that the MVC has their eyes on them

Unless you know something I don't, the only schools traced to official sources within the MVC were Murray State and Texas-Arlington. Everything else is pure speculation. Steven Austin or whatever it's called is a figment of USC's imagination. UMKC or whatever it's called now and UIC were also fan creations, albeit serious names that might or might not be on a short list. The same for the others. That's what happens when a topic takes on a life of its own. 

[vuny98]

https://twitter.com/MattBrownEP/status/1480325842647629828?s=20

https://twitter.com/WyattWheeler_NL/status/1480365654620479491?s=20

[RacerJoeD]

If added in 2017, the MVC would have had two more first round NBA draft picks, and the NBA rookie of the year to their credit.

That said, I would bet dollars to donuts that UIC is added very soon.

The private schools (at least from what I have heard) wanted a large metro from which to recruit students. Hence looking at Omaha, Kansas City, Arlington and UIC. They also kicked the tires on Norther Kentucky (Cincy metro) and Milwaukee. Adding Belmont brought a large metro and good athletics. Adding Murray just brought in good athletics. UIC is the compromise school added to help the private schools in their (I think misguided) attempt to stem enrollment losses.

[wh]

https://twitter.com/MattBrownEP/status/1480325842647629828?s=20

https://twitter.com/WyattWheeler_NL/status/1480365654620479491?s=20

These are not official sources. Even if true about UIC, can you imagine someone saying I heard the interview went bad. The bottom line is I don't want to believe it. UIC hasn't had a strong bb program in the past 15 years. They're a nobody in Chicago. They're just another mouth to feed and 1 more obstacle to contend with. They're not going to catch lightning in a bottle like Loyola did when Krutwig fell into their laps. Murray State and Belmont were strong adds. Stop adding programs until we prove we can be a consistent 2-bid league. Knowing when to stop and take a breath is as important as any other part of a growth strategy. There are stupid adds and buyer's remorse being experienced in several conferences already, including in P-5 conferences.  Slow down!

[VUGrad1314]

[tweet]1480325842647629828[/tweet]?s=20 [tweet]1480365654620479491[/tweet]?s=20

These are not official sources. Even if true about UIC, can you imagine someone saying I heard the interview went bad. The bottom line is I don't want to believe it. UIC hasn't had a strong bb program in the past 15 years. They're a nobody in Chicago. They're just another mouth to feed and 1 more obstacle to contend with. They're not going to catch lightning in a bottle like Loyola did when Krutwig fell into their laps. Murray State and Belmont were strong adds. Stop adding programs until we prove we can be a consistent 2-bid league. Knowing when to stop and take a breath is as important as any other part of a growth strategy. There are stupid adds and buyer's remorse being experienced in several conferences already, including in P-5 conferences.  Slow down!

They aren't official sources but I'm pretty sure Wyatt Wheeler is or was a Missouri State beat writer and as we know Missouri State's president is the chair of the expansion committee so any news coming out of Springfield vis a vis MVC expansion has plenty of reason to be taken seriously. Secondly, Matt Brown has been totally on point RE: Conference realignment this year. As I recall he had Belmont coming before anyone else did. He broke the UTA rumors awhile ago and he has had information nobody else has had concerning other candidate schools (why UTA fell through why Milwaukee and NKU weren't heavily considered this time etc.) I would trust his reporting on this.


That said, your point about knowing when to slow down is well-taken. I was dead set against UIC for a long time for the same reasons you cite but after a discussion with a UIC fan on MVCFans that showed me that there may be more at play here than simply market and academic reputation which are both boxes UIC thoroughly checks I see a good bit to like even if their basketball program isn't good right now. It does seem to be showing some signs of getting better their athletics budget  basketball budget and facilities will be mid pack or better in the MVC on Day One and their overall sport portfolio (which is something the MVC cares about too) is very strong. Men's soccer baseball volleyball and softball I believe are all very good consistently top 3 or better in the HL. Their men's soccer would probably be the best team in the MVC right now and their baseball RPI would have been 4th last year and I don't even think this was even close to their best team recently.


As an institution they are growing extremely well like Belmont (and UTA for that matter) so if that continues they should have more and more money to invest to get better and better.


I do worry about them being a branch campus which probably caps their ceiling as a program when it comes to seeing a Loyola-like resurgence but there's a lot to like here. As much as I detest market based adds (and this is predominantly a market based add) the Chicago market is an exception to that rule. It is incredibly important to almost every MVC institution so having a presence there matters more than having a presence anywhere else plus it probably helps us better keep NBC Sports Chicago as part of our media deal in addition to the growth we will see if we can come to a deal with Bally Sports Southeast thanks to the Belmont and Murray State additions. All of this could\should mean real dollars to all MVC institutions especially if Belmont and Murray State are as good as advertised. If UIC can come anywhere close to reaching their potential they can easily justify their inclusion in the league by becoming perhaps the best overall athletic department in the MVC. I don't like the idea of taking a risk on a school with potential as opposed to a proven track record but if we're going to roll the dice on someone we could do a lot worse than UIC and that is probably the one out of the list of adds (now that I have heard a bit more about the financial situations at NKU Milwaukee etc. Word is they could not afford to agree to what the MVC asked of them financially) that I would pick given the loss of Loyola.


Watch this video for more insight on the importance of the Chicago market to MVC institutions. It also explains why UTA was a candidate even though I disagreed with that especially after the rumor that they too were not up to the challenge financially came out.

If I had my pick I would be going for basketball based adds only but the MVC has shown time and time again a willingness to look beyond basketball. Whether or not that is wise remains to be seen. I've made no secret who my picks would be if I were in the commissioner's chair but clearly the MVC is trying to adopt a more holistic approach. Hopefully that works out for us.


The best news of this post however is the apparent willingness to expand past 12 for the right additions. I have to believe they are watching the likes of the Dakota schools Oral Roberts (if the presidents can stomach them which is no guarantee at all) possibly Bellarmine and St Thomas who I think could be a really good add one day. Or their waiting for something amazing that comes out of left field like a school drops down to FCS and needs a solid basketball home for their sports or a former member returns for some reason or something. It's just nice to see that they are still keeping their ears to the ground to take advantage of opportunities to make the league better.

[VUGrad1314]

Watch this video and get hyped! This video covers everything we already knew about why Murray State is such a good candidate for the MVC as well as a few things I didn't know before watching!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1cefsQ8ABE

[valpotx]

I support UIC.  Good overall athletics program, and keeps us with a Chicago travel partner.  Won't be a Loyola, Belmont, or Murray State, but can get some wins (beat us twice in a row).  I don't mind a 7/5 Public to Private split.  If we go to 14 at any point, we would need to make that up.

[VUGrad1314]

I support UIC.  Good overall athletics program, and keeps us with a Chicago travel partner.  Won't be a Loyola, Belmont, or Murray State, but can get some wins (beat us twice in a row).  I don't mind a 7/5 Public to Private split.  If we go to 14 at any point, we would need to make that up.

I would agree and I do believe that one of the future MVC additions (if not both potentially depending upon what happens when the expansion decisions are made whenever that is) will be a private. I really think St Thomas has a shot. Bellarmine possibly too one day. Maybe Oral Roberts but as I said there may be cultural\academic hurdles there.

[may know]

I think it's important to have a game in Chicago every year and UIC is an academically prestigious, wealthy institution located near downtown. Easier to get to than Loyola for most people.

Also, I love the history capsule at the end of that video.

[VALPO LI]

I support UIC.  Good overall athletics program, and keeps us with a Chicago travel partner.  Won't be a Loyola, Belmont, or Murray State, but can get some wins (beat us twice in a row).  I don't mind a 7/5 Public to Private split.  If we go to 14 at any point, we would need to make that up.

Something Valpo struggles with is a good rivalry!  UIC could be that missing piece.  Past history, close proximity to one another, Chicagoland bragging rights. I'm on board with adding the Flames.

[78crusader]

My wife and I went to a couple of VU/UIC games in Chicago maybe 6-7 years ago.

I don't think their basketball facility is all that great. It is older and rather dingy IMO. People like to trash VU for having the worst gym in the league, but if UIC joins up I think they will take our place.

I'm done going into the city of Chicago. I don't feel safe there. The neighborhood surrounding UIC appears to be OK, and the games we went to were fine (they were all played in the afternoon). I would never go to a night game there. Come to think of it, I wouldn't go anywhere in Chicago at night.

Paul

[Just Sayin]

Greatest Rivalry
Valpo vs Evansville
Valpo vs UIC

Can't wait.

[RacerJoeD]

It's a little off subject, but man is it good to talk to COLLEGE BASKETBALL FANS talking about the benefits of conference realignment. This Racer is damn proud to be in a conference with Valpo.

[valpo tundra]

1314- I can't get too excited about UIC but I'm not opposed either. I'm just surprised that a UIC fan convinced you to take a holistic approach which included all sports since you usually only consider Men's Basketball for your conference additions. As far as UIC being the best potential Men's Soccer team in the MVC, I see them as possibly fourth best now. They were 9-8-2 this season, good enough for fourth place in the Horizon League. They are generally not the best team in Chicago (Loyola) and SIUE is a very solid program. That brings us to Missouri State who was 17-2 overall (most wins in the nation), 10-0 in the MVC, top 10 nationally ranked for much of the season, and a retiring head coach who had over 300 wins in a 30-year career leading the Bears. Some of the videos and news that you post, such as the D1 360 Candidate Comparison, are really interesting.  RacerJoeD- welcome to Valpo and the MVC.

[VUGrad1314]

1314- I can't get too excited about UIC but I'm not opposed either. I'm just surprised that a UIC fan convinced you to take a holistic approach which included all sports since you usually only consider Men's Basketball for your conference additions. As far as UIC being the best potential Men's Soccer team in the MVC, I see them as possibly fourth best now. They were 9-8-2 this season, good enough for fourth place in the Horizon League. They are generally not the best team in Chicago (Loyola) and SIUE is a very solid program. That brings us to Missouri State who was 17-2 overall (most wins in the nation), 10-0 in the MVC, top 10 nationally ranked for much of the season, and a retiring head coach who had over 300 wins in a 30-year career leading the Bears. Some of the videos and news that you post, such as the D1 360 Candidate Comparison, are really interesting.  RacerJoeD- welcome to Valpo and the MVC.

I've chilled out a little following the Murray State news. I thought we were seriously going to pass on the biggest slam dunk add we could possibly have made to chase potential and markets and that made me very concerned and unhappy. Now that they're in and the future of the conference post-Loyola feels a bit more secure I'm a bit more receptive toward the notion of gambling on potential. I still want good basketball schools first and foremost and will continue to lobby for schools like South Dakota State as long as there is hope that expansion is possible because I think they help the league but given what we have and the importance of Chicago to the MVC as well as the solid overall nature of UIC athletics I don't see much of a problem with them being added. The biggest thing for me though is this: their endowment. It's Loyola sized. If the MVC comes in and puts the same list and level of demands on UIC that they put on Loyola when they joined and UIC delivers on those demands watch out because that would mean that they become a power. I'm not sure if we can expect Loyola level results there but the more I looked at UIC a bit deeper the more I think the potential isn't a pipe dream it's real. They clearly have the money as evidenced by the fact that they're planning to drop almost $5million on soccer as announced late last year.  If they start throwing some of that considerable money around like Loyola did they could get very good very quickly assuming like many believe that Luke Yaklich is the right man for the job there.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lac-CUjIprE&t=2s

This is their seventh straight year of record enrollment as well.

https://twitter.com/thisisUIC/status/1435635579497107781?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1435635579497107781%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fflamesmania.proboards.com%2Fthread%2F1105%2Frecord-setting-7th-year-enrollment%3Fpage%3D1

One thing I have learned as a sports fan over the years is that I have had to learn a lot by being wrong and having a lot of bad takes before I get to having better ones. It's happened a lot. This exercise in realignment and learning a bit more about realignment is part of that process. There is a lot to shy away from RE: Men's basketball (long performance drought bad attendance) and one institutional factor that isn't great (still a commuter campus but that is slowly changing) but there are a lot of fundamentals underpinning that that signal that they could be a strong buy for the MVC as strange as that sounds.

[valpotx]

With some of these additions that have Men's Soccer and Men's Tennis, maybe we bring those solid programs back...

[VUGrad1314]

With some of these additions that have Men's Soccer and Men's Tennis, maybe we bring those solid programs back...

As long as adding those programs doesn't create further financial strain that exacerbates the issues facing the men's basketball program vis a vis competitiveness for us I'm all for it. It would be nice to win an MVC championship in something if at all possible.

[VUGrad1314]

If added in 2017, the MVC would have had two more first round NBA draft picks, and the NBA rookie of the year to their credit. That said, I would bet dollars to donuts that UIC is added very soon. The private schools (at least from what I have heard) wanted a large metro from which to recruit students. Hence looking at Omaha, Kansas City, Arlington and UIC. They also kicked the tires on Norther Kentucky (Cincy metro) and Milwaukee. Adding Belmont brought a large metro and good athletics. Adding Murray just brought in good athletics. UIC is the compromise school added to help the private schools in their (I think misguided) attempt to stem enrollment losses.

While I consider not adding Murray State alongside Valpo to go to 11 in 2017 to be an MVC miss considering how badly Murray State wanted to be in the conference at the time Not adding Belmont wasn't. I firmly believe the MVC would have gone to 12 if Belmont's old president and Rick Byrd had been on board with it. Clearly Byrd who was going to retire soon didn't want to have to spend his last few years adjusting to a new more competitive conference and Belmont was clearly more focused at the time on building up other aspects of their university (which they seem to have done quite well). Belmont not coming back then is not on the MVC Murray not coming back then however wholly is on the MVC. Despite all the handwringing back then 11 would not have been an issue (or at least it should not have been).

It's a little off subject, but man is it good to talk to COLLEGE BASKETBALL FANS talking about the benefits of conference realignment. This Racer is damn proud to be in a conference with Valpo.

This is exactly how I felt when Valpo first joined the MVC. Being in a conference that is in a position of strength in realignment who can make adds that enhance the conference feels good. The discussions I have had with folks from other fanbases on the MVC Board has been awesome too! And while I can't speak for anyone but myself this Valpo fan is damn proud to call Murray State a conference mate as well!




Now to the meat and potatoes point of my post: I posted this on the MVC Board a little earlier but I figured I'd do it here as well. The additions of Belmont and Murray State and the subsequent negotiations with Bally Sports South and Southeast have me wondering if maybe we're talking to the SOCON about a conference challenge. I know we all want the A10 or the MWC but those probably aren't very likely. With the diminished state of the AAC which might suffer even further defections over the years the SOCON stands as the best option for any sort of challenge agreement. They are 12th in the NET to the MVC's 11th and would add a lot of high interest content to the potential new area of our TV deal. I have to think that the thought has at least crossed the mind of Commissioner Jackson and I think it would be a good move for the MVC. Here are the NET comparisons for the two leagues (minus Loyola for the MVC but plus Belmont Murray State and UIC who is heavily rumored to be joining):

Belmont 28

Murray State 45

Missouri State 97

Drake 99

UNI 117

Bradley 130

SIU 144

ISUb 165

Valpo 198

ISUr 207

Evansville 285

UIC 298

SOCON

Chattanooga 29

Furman 105

Wofford 110

UNC-Greensoboro 154

Samford 157

East Tennessee State 170

VMI 175

Mercer 221

The Citadel 246

Western Carolina 280

[wh]

Someone said that the A-10 would still be a higher ranked conference than the MVC, even if Loyola stayed put, and we added Belmont and Murray State. Wrong. Adding Belmont and Murray State as the 11th and 12th teams would improve our conference NET from 11th to 9th. The A-10 would drop from 9th to 10th. The WCC would drop from 10th to 11th.

This is not a promotion for Loyola to a higher ranked conference as the poster insisted. They may have a hundred other reasons why they think the A-10 is a better fit for them, but moving to a better conference is not one of them. Today, yes. Tomorrow, absolutely not.

Would anyone like to own that comment and defend it?

[vu84v2]

Someone said that the A-10 would still be a higher ranked conference than the MVC, even if Loyola stayed put, and we added Belmont and Murray State. Wrong. Adding Belmont and Murray State as the 11th and 12th teams would improve our conference NET from 11th to 9th. The A-10 would drop from 9th to 10th. The WCC would drop from 10th to 11th.

This is not a promotion for Loyola to a higher ranked conference as the poster insisted. They may have a hundred other reasons why they think the A-10 is a better fit for them, but moving to a better conference is not one of them. Today, yes. Tomorrow, absolutely not.

Would anyone like to own that comment and defend it?

I actually agree with your premise that moving from the MVC to the A10 is not a promotion for Loyola, especially given that Belmont and Murray State are replacing Loyola. However, you should note that in many seasons the A10 has gotten more NCAA births than the MVC. The A10 has had at least two bids in every season since 2005-2006, while the MVC averages about 1.5 bids per season over the same timespan. Beyond that, I looked at SRS (collegebasketballreference.com's measure of performance) and it does seem that the A10 is slightly better than the MVC. On that website, the two conferences are always ranked next to each other in each season. Other measures that could be considered are attendance and TV contracts, and I have no idea how those would turn out. Attendance is a weird measure since it depends on what you charge, quality of non-conference home opponents, and how you measure it for each game.

[wh]

Someone said that the A-10 would still be a higher ranked conference than the MVC, even if Loyola stayed put, and we added Belmont and Murray State. Wrong. Adding Belmont and Murray State as the 11th and 12th teams would improve our conference NET from 11th to 9th. The A-10 would drop from 9th to 10th. The WCC would drop from 10th to 11th.

This is not a promotion for Loyola to a higher ranked conference as the poster insisted. They may have a hundred other reasons why they think the A-10 is a better fit for them, but moving to a better conference is not one of them. Today, yes. Tomorrow, absolutely not.

Would anyone like to own that comment and defend it?

I actually agree with your premise that moving from the MVC to the A10 is not a promotion for Loyola, especially given that Belmont and Murray State are replacing Loyola. However, you should note that in many seasons the A10 has gotten more NCAA births than the MVC. The A10 has had at least two bids in every season since 2005-2006, while the MVC averages about 1.5 bids per season over the same timespan. Beyond that, I looked at SRS (collegebasketballreference.com's measure of performance) and it does seem that the A10 is slightly better than the MVC. On that website, the two conferences are always ranked next to each other in each season. Other measures that could be considered are attendance and TV contracts, and I have no idea how those would turn out. Attendance is a weird measure since it depends on what you charge, quality of non-conference home opponents, and how you measure it for each game.

I don't think anyone would dispute that the A-10 has outranked/outperformed the MVC in past years. His point was that the MVC could add Murray State and Belmont right now and the A-10 would still be higher ranked. As I said, "Incorrect."

BTW, I'll make this claim right now. I am far more confident that Belmont and Murray State will continue to perform at a high level in the MVC than I am Loyola maintaining its current status in the A-10. Belmont and Murray State both have a record of high level achievement that spans many years, different coaches, and multiple cycles of complete roster changes. We all know what Loyola has - a 4 year track record of success under 1 former coach and 1 former freak of nature player. COVID saved them from what would have been a steep decline this year. Where they go after this is a crap shoot.